Win out and they are in, 100%:

Alabama
Georgia
Florida *
LSU
Clemson
Notre Dame
Ohio State

* I originally listed Florida, but because of a point made in post #10, I would now remove them.

Everyone else, even unbeaten NC State, Kentucky and the two Big 12 powers, aren't sure things.

(10-15-2018 06:31 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Win out and they are in, 100%:

Alabama
Georgia
Florida
LSU
Clemson
Notre Dame
Ohio State

Everyone else, even unbeaten NC State, Kentucky and the two Big 12 powers, aren't sure things.

Even I'll admit Florida would get embarrassed in Atlanta. Hope I'm wrong, but I don't feel that this is their year.

Let’s say Alabama loses to LSU and LSU wins the SEC title. Notre Dame goes undefeated. Is it possible that a 1-loss Alabama (losing a close one at LSU) would get in over Notre Dame?

Boise State. Quality loss like the SEC teams, beat Oklahoma 12 years ago, and a ratings bonanza the committee can’t resist.

(10-15-2018 06:31 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Win out and they are in, 100%:

Alabama
Georgia
Florida
LSU
Clemson
Notre Dame
Ohio State

Everyone else, even unbeaten NC State, Kentucky and the two Big 12 powers, aren't sure things.

So if Kentucky and NC State win out, are SEC and ACC champions at 13-0 and 12-0, have put a loss on Alabama or LSU, and NC State having put a loss on Clemson and VT or Miami are going to be displaced by 2 loss P12 team, of a one loss B12 school that has lost to Maryland, or barely beaten Army and lost to Texas?

Sorry, I just don't see that. I don't see an undefeated P-5 EVER being left out unless all 5 conferences champs and ND are undefeated.

(10-15-2018 08:12 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  Let’s say Alabama loses to LSU and LSU wins the SEC title. Notre Dame goes undefeated. Is it possible that a 1-loss Alabama (losing a close one at LSU) would get in over Notre Dame?

No

Run the table to get slaughtered by Bama.

(10-15-2018 09:10 PM)Statefan Wrote:  

(10-15-2018 06:31 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Win out and they are in, 100%:

Alabama
Georgia
Florida
LSU
Clemson
Notre Dame
Ohio State

Everyone else, even unbeaten NC State, Kentucky and the two Big 12 powers, aren't sure things.

So if Kentucky and NC State win out, are SEC and ACC champions at 13-0 and 12-0, have put a loss on Alabama or LSU, and NC State having put a loss on Clemson and VT or Miami are going to be displaced by 2 loss P12 team, of a one loss B12 school that has lost to Maryland, or barely beaten Army and lost to Texas?

Sorry, I just don't see that. I don't see an undefeated P-5 EVER being left out unless all 5 conferences champs and ND are undefeated.

It would certainly spell substantial disrespect of the ACC for an undefeated ACC champion to be left out in favor of a one or more loss team from a different conference.

Kentucky having lost to Texas A&M wouldn't be undefeated -- even if they win out they are 12-1, not 13-0. It's likely they would be included as the SEC champion even if they carry one loss into it, but it's conceivable that an undefeated Big Ten and ACC champion and undefeated Notre Dame leaves a one-loss Kentucky as SEC champion to get nipped at the post by a one-loss Big-12 champion.

(10-15-2018 09:37 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(10-15-2018 09:10 PM)Statefan Wrote:  

(10-15-2018 06:31 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Win out and they are in, 100%:

Alabama
Georgia
Florida
LSU
Clemson
Notre Dame
Ohio State

Everyone else, even unbeaten NC State, Kentucky and the two Big 12 powers, aren't sure things.

So if Kentucky and NC State win out, are SEC and ACC champions at 13-0 and 12-0, have put a loss on Alabama or LSU, and NC State having put a loss on Clemson and VT or Miami are going to be displaced by 2 loss P12 team, of a one loss B12 school that has lost to Maryland, or barely beaten Army and lost to Texas?

Sorry, I just don't see that. I don't see an undefeated P-5 EVER being left out unless all 5 conferences champs and ND are undefeated.

It would certainly spell substantial disrespect of the ACC for an undefeated ACC champion to be left out in favor of a one or more loss team from a different conference.

Kentucky having lost to Texas A&M wouldn't be undefeated -- even if they win out they are 12-1, not 13-0. It's likely they would be included as the SEC champion even if they carry one loss into it, but it's conceivable that an undefeated Big Ten and ACC champion and undefeated Notre Dame leaves a one-loss Kentucky as SEC champion to get nipped at the post by a one-loss Big-12 champion.

The one loss B-12 team would have to be Oklahoma if that happened. The Texas loss to Maryland would be a black mark too big to over come. Doubt that either would overtake Kentucky though if they took down an undefeated Alabama in the SEC Championship Game.

I would add Michigan to the list. If they finish 12-1, they're in the playoff.

But I would take Florida off the list. If they win out, they could finish 11-1, but if Kentucky has beaten Georgia and they win out, THEY and not Florida would be division champs. I don't think Florida is good enough to get into the playoff at 11-1 and not conference champ.......

I think an unbeaten NC State is going to get awfully close to the conversation.

(10-16-2018 08:00 AM)panite Wrote:  

(10-15-2018 09:37 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  Kentucky having lost to Texas A&M wouldn't be undefeated -- even if they win out they are 12-1, not 13-0. It's likely they would be included as the SEC champion even if they carry one loss into it, but it's conceivable that an undefeated Big Ten and ACC champion and undefeated Notre Dame leaves a one-loss Kentucky as SEC champion to get nipped at the post by a one-loss Big-12 champion.

The one loss B-12 team would have to be Oklahoma if that happened. The Texas loss to Maryland would be a black mark too big to over come. Doubt that either would overtake Kentucky though if they took down an undefeated Alabama in the SEC Championship Game.

Yeah, I said it's conceivable, I didn't say it was likely ... Alabama not being undefeated at the time of the CCG would be a step toward it happening, since beating the undefeated #1 in the CCG to win your conference championship is awfully hard to ignore in weighing which 1-loss school to pick.

But the topic is controlling their own destiny ... Kentucky doesn't control Alabama arriving at an SEC CCG an undefeated #1.

(10-15-2018 08:01 PM)otown Wrote:  Even I'll admit Florida would get embarrassed in Atlanta. Hope I'm wrong, but I don't feel that this is their year.

It depends on if your QB can improve. But, look at what LSU did to Georgia. And Florida's defense dominated LSU, made LSU's offense look slow, which never happens even when LSU's offense isn't any good.

You guys have a special defense, IMO. It has gotten better as the season has progressed. Sometimes, that's enough.

I would put NC State in there. It won't happen of course, but if they go 13-0 with a win over Clemson they have to be in and there would (at most) be only 3 other power team undefeated (Notre Dame, Alabama, Ohio State)

(10-15-2018 08:12 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  Let’s say Alabama loses to LSU and LSU wins the SEC title. Notre Dame goes undefeated. Is it possible that a 1-loss Alabama (losing a close one at LSU) would get in over Notre Dame?

IMO, no chance.

Remember, last year, Alabama only made the playoffs because unbeaten Wisconsin lost the B1G title game. Had Wisconsin won, Alabama would have missed the playoffs. And an unbeaten Notre Dame will have a stronger resume than Wisconsin did last year.

(10-15-2018 09:10 PM)Statefan Wrote:  

(10-15-2018 06:31 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Win out and they are in, 100%:

Alabama
Georgia
Florida
LSU
Clemson
Notre Dame
Ohio State

Everyone else, even unbeaten NC State, Kentucky and the two Big 12 powers, aren't sure things.

So if Kentucky and NC State win out, are SEC and ACC champions at 13-0 and 12-0, have put a loss on Alabama or LSU, and NC State having put a loss on Clemson and VT or Miami are going to be displaced by 2 loss P12 team, of a one loss B12 school that has lost to Maryland, or barely beaten Army and lost to Texas?

Sorry, I just don't see that. I don't see an undefeated P-5 EVER being left out unless all 5 conferences champs and ND are undefeated.

First, Kentucky can't be 13-0 because they have lost a game.

But FWIW, I think an unbeaten ACC champ NC State and a once-beaten SEC champ Kentucky would *very likely* make the playoffs, probably more than 80% chance, in NC State's case a 90% chance. But this thread is about the teams that I think are *guaranteed, 100%* to make the playoffs if they win out.

And to me, I could see a scenario where the CFP likes, say, a once-beaten Oklahoma or Texas as Big 12 champ over NC State or Kentucky.

(10-16-2018 08:30 AM)stever20 Wrote:  I would add Michigan to the list. If they finish 12-1, they're in the playoff.

But I would take Florida off the list. If they win out, they could finish 11-1, but if Kentucky has beaten Georgia and they win out, THEY and not Florida would be division champs. I don't think Florida is good enough to get into the playoff at 11-1 and not conference champ.......

IMO, a B1G champ Michigan at 12-1 is very likely to make the playoffs, probably 95%. But I do think there is a chance they could lose out to a one-loss Big 12 champ, particularly if that is Oklahoma. Not likely, but not 100% either and I was thinking in terms of 100%.

As for Florida, that's an awesome point. I had forgotten about the implications of losing to Kentucky for the SEC East race. I agree that an unbeaten Florida that doesn't make the SEC title game could very well miss the playoffs, so I would subtract them from the list as well.

(10-16-2018 09:30 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-16-2018 08:30 AM)stever20 Wrote:  I would add Michigan to the list. If they finish 12-1, they're in the playoff.

But I would take Florida off the list. If they win out, they could finish 11-1, but if Kentucky has beaten Georgia and they win out, THEY and not Florida would be division champs. I don't think Florida is good enough to get into the playoff at 11-1 and not conference champ.......

IMO, a B1G champ Michigan at 12-1 is very likely to make the playoffs, probably 95%. But I do think there is a chance they could lose out to a one-loss Big 12 champ, particularly if that is Oklahoma. Not likely, but not 100% either and I was thinking in terms of 100%.

As for Florida, that's an awesome point. I had forgotten about the implications of losing to Kentucky for the SEC East race. I agree that an unbeaten Florida that doesn't make the SEC title game could very well miss the playoffs, so I would subtract them from the list as well.

In that scenario, a 12-1 Michigan team would have quality victories over Wisconsin, PSU, Michigan State, and tOSU combined with a quality loss to an undefeated ND team. I'd say that would put their chances at 100%.

Assuming everything holds, I think it comes down to this.

SEC champ is in
Michigan or tOSU are in
ND is in.

The 4th spot will depend on how the other leagues shake out. I think a 1 loss XII champ Texas gets in over a 1 loss ACC champ (probably over a zero loss NC State team as well), mostly because they're Texas.

The only ones who are probably doomed is the PAC. If they're left out again, should start that "realignment" buzz going full steam again....

Can't wait.

There are a lot of teams in the running. And not as many 2 loss teams. There are 31 0 or 1 loss teams. Last year it was 27. Two years ago it was 21. 3 years ago it was 29 when there were a lot of unbeaten teams relatively late.

Same week 0-1-2 loss teams
2018 9-22-25
2017 8-19-33
2016 11-10-32
2015 14-15-21

(10-16-2018 11:26 AM)bullet Wrote:  There are a lot of teams in the running. And not as many 2 loss teams. There are 31 0 or 1 loss teams. Last year it was 27. Two years ago it was 21. 3 years ago it was 29 when there were a lot of unbeaten teams relatively late.

Same week 0-1-2 loss teams
2018 9-22-25
2017 8-19-33
2016 11-10-32
2015 14-15-21

No question, there are several teams that are still 'in the running' in the sense that it isn't a sure thing that they *can't* make the playoffs. Probably 10-15 teams could make the playoffs if the chips fell a certain way, though for many of them the chance is very slim.