(10-30-2018 11:43 AM)BearcatMan Wrote:  We're either getting $4M a year per team or we're losing 2 members. Hope I'm wrong, but don't think I will be.

No P5 is adding anyone. Just do the math---it isnt just the media deal that gets split more ways. Its the CFP payoff, the bowl game revenue, the NCAA credit revenue, etc.. One reason the Big 12 is somewhat keeping up with the SEC and Big10 is because if only divides those additional sources of income by 10 members (instead of 12 or 14).

The Big12 reported 371 million in total revenue for 2017. That means each team gets 37.1 million. About 20 million each (200 million) of that 37 million is TV revenue. So, in order to just keep every Big12 team even with the current 10-team Big12 revenue, ESPN would have to ante up 37.1 million for each team they add to the Big12---not 20 million. Thats an expenditure of 67.2 for 2 teams or 148.4 million for 4 additional teams---on top of whatever you have to pay the rest of the AAC to keep them around.

Its cheaper to just give the AAC 75-100 million a year (and sell off what you dont need to NBC or CBS-Sports to offfset some of the cost).

(10-30-2018 12:30 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(10-30-2018 11:43 AM)BearcatMan Wrote:  We're either getting $4M a year per team or we're losing 2 members. Hope I'm wrong, but don't think I will be.

No P5 is adding anyone. Just do the math---it isnt just the media deal that gets split more ways. Its the CFP payoff, the bowl game revenue, the NCAA credit revenue, etc.. One reason the Big 12 is somewhat keeping up with the SEC and Big10 is because if only divides those additional sources of income by 10 members (instead of 12 or 14).

The Big12 reported 371 million in total revenue for 2017. That means each team gets 37.1 million. About 20 million each (200 million) of that 37 million is TV revenue. So, in order to just keep every Big12 team even with the current 10-team Big12 revenue, ESPN would have to ante up 37.1 million of each team they add to the Big12---not 20 million. Thats an expenditure of 67.2 for 2 teams or 148.4 million for 4 additional teams---on top of whatever you have to pay the rest of the AAC to keep them around.

Its cheaper to just give the AAC 75-100 million a year (and sell off what you dont need to NBC or CBS-Sports to offfset some of the cost).

I'm sorry but I can't help wondering,why in the hades you think Aresco would sell the entire conference package to ESPN for 75-100 million a year and watch them turn around and sell us back off to the very Same bidders that we can just sell to ourselves in tiered packages for a max profit. Seriously I'd really like to see your rationale on that because maybe I'm missing something.

(10-30-2018 12:30 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(10-30-2018 11:43 AM)BearcatMan Wrote:  We're either getting $4M a year per team or we're losing 2 members. Hope I'm wrong, but don't think I will be.

No P5 is adding anyone. Just do the math---it isnt just the media deal that gets split more ways. Its the CFP payoff, the bowl game revenue, the NCAA credit revenue, etc.. One reason the Big 12 is somewhat keeping up with the SEC and Big10 is because if only divides those additional sources of income by 10 members (instead of 12 or 14).

The Big12 reported 371 million in total revenue for 2017. That means each team gets 37.1 million. About 20 million each (200 million) of that 37 million is TV revenue. So, in order to just keep every Big12 team even with the current 10-team Big12 revenue, ESPN would have to ante up 37.1 million of each team they add to the Big12---not 20 million. Thats an expenditure of 67.2 for 2 teams or 148.4 million for 4 additional teams---on top of whatever you have to pay the rest of the AAC to keep them around.

Its cheaper to just give the AAC 75-100 million a year (and sell off what you dont need to NBC or CBS-Sports to offfset some of the cost).

Paying them $70 million seriously devalues the AAC contract and blows up the P6 narrative depending on who is taken out of the league. You get the AAC contract probably for the same or less than the current contract and you don't have to pay another conference.

Its the same money, possibly saving money, and you shut down the tweener narrative and put a conference back in their place. Seems like a no brainer.

Losing any 2 of Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis, South Florida, UCF could seriously ruin the AAC brand.

(10-30-2018 11:43 AM)BearcatMan Wrote:  We're either getting $4M a year per team or we're losing 2 members. Hope I'm wrong, but don't think I will be.

This is a possibility.

(10-30-2018 12:57 PM)Bearcats#1 Wrote:  

(10-30-2018 11:43 AM)BearcatMan Wrote:  We're either getting $4M a year per team or we're losing 2 members. Hope I'm wrong, but don't think I will be.

This is a possibility.

You mean Cincy and UConn head to the Big East if the American contract does not exceed the Big East contract?

(10-30-2018 12:59 PM)CougarRed Wrote:  

(10-30-2018 12:57 PM)Bearcats#1 Wrote:  

(10-30-2018 11:43 AM)BearcatMan Wrote:  We're either getting $4M a year per team or we're losing 2 members. Hope I'm wrong, but don't think I will be.

This is a possibility.

You mean Cincy and UConn head to the Big East if the American contract does not exceed the Big East contract?

UC will never be in the BE again.
XU would block us. Plus, we have too much invested in football.

Uconn could get in.

Look folks, KNIGHTIME and I crunched the numbers 100 ways and all data shows we are looking at $32.2M/team/year and that is with a +\- 3.2346899999 for standard deviation.

(10-30-2018 01:00 PM)Bearcats#1 Wrote:  

(10-30-2018 12:59 PM)CougarRed Wrote:  

(10-30-2018 12:57 PM)Bearcats#1 Wrote:  

(10-30-2018 11:43 AM)BearcatMan Wrote:  We're either getting $4M a year per team or we're losing 2 members. Hope I'm wrong, but don't think I will be.

This is a possibility.

You mean Cincy and UConn head to the Big East if the American contract does not exceed the Big East contract?

UC will never be in the BE again.
XU would block us. Plus, we have too much invested in football.

Uconn could get in.

So who are the 2 members we would lose if the deal is less than $4M?

(10-30-2018 12:47 PM)MagicKnightmare Wrote:  

(10-30-2018 12:30 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(10-30-2018 11:43 AM)BearcatMan Wrote:  We're either getting $4M a year per team or we're losing 2 members. Hope I'm wrong, but don't think I will be.

No P5 is adding anyone. Just do the math---it isnt just the media deal that gets split more ways. Its the CFP payoff, the bowl game revenue, the NCAA credit revenue, etc.. One reason the Big 12 is somewhat keeping up with the SEC and Big10 is because if only divides those additional sources of income by 10 members (instead of 12 or 14).

The Big12 reported 371 million in total revenue for 2017. That means each team gets 37.1 million. About 20 million each (200 million) of that 37 million is TV revenue. So, in order to just keep every Big12 team even with the current 10-team Big12 revenue, ESPN would have to ante up 37.1 million of each team they add to the Big12---not 20 million. Thats an expenditure of 67.2 for 2 teams or 148.4 million for 4 additional teams---on top of whatever you have to pay the rest of the AAC to keep them around.

Its cheaper to just give the AAC 75-100 million a year (and sell off what you dont need to NBC or CBS-Sports to offfset some of the cost).

Paying them $70 million seriously devalues the AAC contract and blows up the P6 narrative depending on who is taken out of the league. You get the AAC contract probably for the same or less than the current contract and you don't have to pay another conference.

Its the same money, possibly saving money, and you shut down the tweener narrative and put a conference back in their place. Seems like a no brainer.

Losing any 2 of Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis, South Florida, UCF could seriously ruin the AAC brand.

Losing UCONN would seriously ruin the AAC Basketball brand. Even with sucking the past few years, UCONN Basketball remains the biggest brand in this conference.

(10-30-2018 01:00 PM)Bearcats#1 Wrote:  

(10-30-2018 12:59 PM)CougarRed Wrote:  

(10-30-2018 12:57 PM)Bearcats#1 Wrote:  

(10-30-2018 11:43 AM)BearcatMan Wrote:  We're either getting $4M a year per team or we're losing 2 members. Hope I'm wrong, but don't think I will be.

This is a possibility.

You mean Cincy and UConn head to the Big East if the American contract does not exceed the Big East contract?

UC will never be in the BE again.
XU would block us. Plus, we have too much invested in football.

Uconn could get in.

You should go to the SunBelt. Easy driving distance for you.

(10-30-2018 11:43 AM)BearcatMan Wrote:  We're either getting $4M a year per team or we're losing 2 members. Hope I'm wrong, but don't think I will be.

USFFan

I seriously doubt we only get $4M per team. Ratings don't lie.

7 days

(10-30-2018 02:51 PM)Pony94 Wrote:  7 days

Until what? When everyone votes on the new TV deal? Is the board going to be ecstatic or will the rebels revolt?

(10-30-2018 12:47 PM)MagicKnightmare Wrote:  

(10-30-2018 12:30 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(10-30-2018 11:43 AM)BearcatMan Wrote:  We're either getting $4M a year per team or we're losing 2 members. Hope I'm wrong, but don't think I will be.

No P5 is adding anyone. Just do the math---it isnt just the media deal that gets split more ways. Its the CFP payoff, the bowl game revenue, the NCAA credit revenue, etc.. One reason the Big 12 is somewhat keeping up with the SEC and Big10 is because if only divides those additional sources of income by 10 members (instead of 12 or 14).

The Big12 reported 371 million in total revenue for 2017. That means each team gets 37.1 million. About 20 million each (200 million) of that 37 million is TV revenue. So, in order to just keep every Big12 team even with the current 10-team Big12 revenue, ESPN would have to ante up 37.1 million of each team they add to the Big12---not 20 million. Thats an expenditure of 67.2 for 2 teams or 148.4 million for 4 additional teams---on top of whatever you have to pay the rest of the AAC to keep them around.

Its cheaper to just give the AAC 75-100 million a year (and sell off what you dont need to NBC or CBS-Sports to offfset some of the cost).

Paying them $70 million seriously devalues the AAC contract and blows up the P6 narrative depending on who is taken out of the league. You get the AAC contract probably for the same or less than the current contract and you don't have to pay another conference.

Its the same money, possibly saving money, and you shut down the tweener narrative and put a conference back in their place. Seems like a no brainer.

Losing any 2 of Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis, South Florida, UCF could seriously ruin the AAC brand.

I'd take 10 MM and an automatic qualifier for our conference champion into the Fiesta Bowl, utilizing the conference's history as the Big East with the game

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

Wow this thread has gotten so depressing I think I'm going to

Boys n girls this league isn't going to lose anyone and is very capable in fetching between $8 million - $12 million ea.

(10-30-2018 11:32 PM)BigHouston Wrote:  Wow this thread has gotten so depressing I think I'm going to

Boys n girls this league isn't going to lose anyone and is very capable in fetching between $8 million - $12 million ea.

It only fetches 8-12 million if there is another bidder in that range. I doubt NBC will be offering that range because part of our ratings are due to platform. ESPN is on every bar in town. NBC, not so much. I think our league league would experience the Fox Sports/Big East effect (solid brand, minuscule ratings). Even if paired with Notre Dame games, I doubt their fans stick around for our games. I am going with $4 million plus some tiers for added profit. And I hope I am wrong, wrong, wrong.

(10-31-2018 12:52 AM)fishpro1098 Wrote:  

(10-30-2018 11:32 PM)BigHouston Wrote:  Wow this thread has gotten so depressing I think I'm going to

Boys n girls this league isn't going to lose anyone and is very capable in fetching between $8 million - $12 million ea.

It only fetches 8-12 million if there is another bidder in that range. I doubt NBC will be offering that range because part of our ratings are due to platform. ESPN is on every bar in town. NBC, not so much. I think our league league would experience the Fox Sports/Big East effect (solid brand, minuscule ratings). Even if paired with Notre Dame games, I doubt their fans stick around for our games. I am going with $4 million plus some tiers for added profit. And I hope I am wrong, wrong, wrong.

This is the thing people apparently miss...ESPN is not obliged to give us more money because of our ratings (which are incredible average) unless another suitor comes and does the same. They matched an offer from another suitor last time that only gave us, what, $~3M a year per team? I don't get where ANYONE can reasonable expect a broadcasting group to come in and offer 400% increase on rights for a property that has only increased their total viewership numbers by 8% over the last three years.

(10-30-2018 01:10 PM)CougarRed Wrote:  

(10-30-2018 01:00 PM)Bearcats#1 Wrote:  

(10-30-2018 12:59 PM)CougarRed Wrote:  

(10-30-2018 12:57 PM)Bearcats#1 Wrote:  

(10-30-2018 11:43 AM)BearcatMan Wrote:  We're either getting $4M a year per team or we're losing 2 members. Hope I'm wrong, but don't think I will be.

This is a possibility.

You mean Cincy and UConn head to the Big East if the American contract does not exceed the Big East contract?

UC will never be in the BE again.
XU would block us. Plus, we have too much invested in football.

Uconn could get in.

So who are the 2 members we would lose if the deal is less than $4M?

Whoever the Big 12 is willing to add for a revenue boost from ESPN. Likely to be Houston and either Memphis or Cincinnati. The rationale behind why we would lose teams over the next media rights negotiation has been outlined thoroughly above. It makes good business sense to bolster an existing strong property and cut the legs out from under a competitor instead of funneling money into one that is underperforming (AAC) vs. it's supposed peers (ACC and Big 12). Losing two teams would seriously devalue the AAC, would allow ESPN to get out from under broadcasting games that fewer people want to watch, and would still allow them to keep the properties that they deem viable from the AAC while sweetening the pot for another conference property that they can refer back to in future negotiations.

Removing two teams from the equation in the AAC would probably make our contract closer to $1M-$2M per team (which would save ESPN $15-20M a year if they keep the rights or $40M a year if they don't), which they could use as an incentive for another conference adding the properties that they deem viable (the "Group A" teams from the previous contract, which are Cincinnati, Houston, UCF, and UConn to my recollection). If they choose to keep the AAC after that, they get it at a cut rate and if they choose to drop the AAC, they give a seriously devalued property to a competitor.