Hello There, Guest! (LoginRegister)

Post Reply 
College Football Playoff Rankings (October 30th)
Author Message
Gamecock Offline
All American
*

Posts: 3,979
Joined: Oct 2011
Reputation: 182
I Root For: South Carolina
Location:
Post: #41
RE: College Football Playoff Rankings (October 30th)
(10-31-2018 12:09 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Occums razor. Simplest explanation. Given that two independent polls using far more data points than the committee arrive at largely the same conclusion on thier own—-and then suddenly—these polls change when the committee begins issuing rankings—-we can safely say it’s simply Committee influence. It’s not complicated. It simply is what it is. We will likley see the influence in the poll rankings of Houston, UCF, Utah, and Fresno this week. As for the cap on UCF, it’s there. Undefeated UCF is by far the lowest ranked undefeated team—just barely even in the top 10. At this point in the season, a team on a 20 game win streak in the pre-CFP days would no doubt be in the top 4 or 5. In the pre-CFP past, a 20 game win streak would at least have them up there immediately adjacent to the other undefeated teams like Boise was long ago. In fact, the old BCS formula would have them at #9—inside the “no G5’s allowed” Top 10 CFP glass ceiling.

Exactly. Boise's state was number 3 or 4 for all of 2010 despite basically having the same schedule strength as UCF will this season.

I really hope UCF goes undefeated (right now I'm skeptical) just so we can see this play out, but if they go 12-0 again and get left out it's going to expose a lot of hypocrisy.
10-31-2018 01:32 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
quo vadis Offline
Legend
*

Posts: 50,018
Joined: Aug 2008
Reputation: 2372
I Root For: USF/Georgetown
Location: New Orleans
Post: #42
RE: College Football Playoff Rankings (October 30th)
(10-31-2018 01:32 PM)Gamecock Wrote:  
(10-31-2018 12:09 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Occums razor. Simplest explanation. Given that two independent polls using far more data points than the committee arrive at largely the same conclusion on thier own—-and then suddenly—these polls change when the committee begins issuing rankings—-we can safely say it’s simply Committee influence. It’s not complicated. It simply is what it is. We will likley see the influence in the poll rankings of Houston, UCF, Utah, and Fresno this week. As for the cap on UCF, it’s there. Undefeated UCF is by far the lowest ranked undefeated team—just barely even in the top 10. At this point in the season, a team on a 20 game win streak in the pre-CFP days would no doubt be in the top 4 or 5. In the pre-CFP past, a 20 game win streak would at least have them up there immediately adjacent to the other undefeated teams like Boise was long ago. In fact, the old BCS formula would have them at #9—inside the “no G5’s allowed” Top 10 CFP glass ceiling.

Exactly. Boise's state was number 3 or 4 for all of 2010 despite basically having the same schedule strength as UCF will this season.

How many times does this have to be debunked?

Yes, in 2010, TCU (then in the MWC) was #3 in the final BCS standings. But guess what? They were also #3 in the Massey computers.

In 2009, TCU was #4 in the final BCS standings and Boise was #6. But guess what? They were also #4 and #7 in the Massey computers.

The fact is, those non-power teams like Utah in 2008, Boise in 2009, and TCU in 2010 were *better* than UCF was last year or (so far) this year! That's why they were ranked so high in the computers, which can't be influenced by what the BCS or CFP or AP voters do.

In contrast, UCF is #15 in the current Massey rankings. The humans are actually biased *towards* UCF, not against them, as the CFP has UCF at #12 and the AP has UCF at #9!

You guys are living in a fantasy land of UCF hype. 07-coffee3
10-31-2018 05:49 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Jjoey52 Offline
All American
*

Posts: 4,035
Joined: Feb 2017
Reputation: 236
I Root For: ISU
Location:
Post: #43
College Football Playoff Rankings (October 30th)
To get the respect UCF has to play some big guns and win. Boise had to do it, TCU had to do it. Boise has a strong history of knocking off teams like Georgia, Va. Tech and Oregon.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
10-31-2018 09:37 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Attackcoog Offline
Moderator
*

Posts: 44,738
Joined: Oct 2011
Reputation: 2860
I Root For: Houston
Location:
Post: #44
RE: College Football Playoff Rankings (October 30th)
(10-31-2018 09:37 PM)Jjoey52 Wrote:  To get the respect UCF has to play some big guns and win. Boise had to do it, TCU had to do it. Boise has a strong history of knocking off teams like Georgia, Va. Tech and Oregon.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Or they could just join the SEC. Thats just about as easily done as getting home and homes with ranked powers 4 years out. Lets take a real factual look at exactly how many "big guns" Boise was playing during the seasons they finished in the top 10.

Boise Top 10 seasons since 2000

2006 Boise finishes #5 AP/#6 Coaches
OOC was Oregon St, Sacramento St, Utah (MW-finished 8-5), Wyoming (MW). Not one team they played was ranked when they played them other than Oklahoma in thier bowl game.

2009 Boise finishes #4
OOC was Oregon #14, Miami OH, Bowling Green, UC Davis

2010 Boise finishes #9 AP, #7 Coaches
OOC was Virginia Tech (13), Wyoming, Toledo, Oregon St


2011 Boise finishes #6 Coaches/#8 AP
OOC was Georgia #22, Toledo, Tulsa, Fresno


So of those 4 top 10 finishes---they did play a single ranked team in OOC in 3 of the seasons. One of the 4 seasons they finished in the top 10----they did NOT play a ranked team in OOC play. They only played 2 P5's in one of the 4 seasons they finished in the top ten. It should be noted that 2 P5's in OOC play is the current UCF OOC model.

Boise had 1 loss in the 2010 and 2011 top ten finishes. They were undefeated in the 2006 and 2009 top ten finishes. UCF is undefeated. Its fairly likely that UCF will end up with a couple of games vs AAC teams that are ranked in the AP/Coaches polls before the season is over. If that happens, their schedule would be little different than Boise's schedules back in the day.
(This post was last modified: 10-31-2018 11:49 PM by Attackcoog.)
10-31-2018 11:34 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Kittonhead Offline
Hall of Famer
*

Posts: 10,000
Joined: Jun 2013
Reputation: 122
I Root For: Beat Matisse
Location:
Post: #45
RE: College Football Playoff Rankings (October 30th)
Boise had very little competition within their conference in those years which helped to make them look like world beaters.

Thus the problem of the AAC, more competition but competition that might prevent one program from becoming super dominant.
11-01-2018 12:55 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
quo vadis Offline
Legend
*

Posts: 50,018
Joined: Aug 2008
Reputation: 2372
I Root For: USF/Georgetown
Location: New Orleans
Post: #46
RE: College Football Playoff Rankings (October 30th)
(11-01-2018 12:55 AM)Kittonhead Wrote:  Boise had very little competition within their conference in those years which helped to make them look like world beaters.

Thus the problem of the AAC, more competition but competition that might prevent one program from becoming super dominant.

How many times does this have to be debunked?

Yes, in 2009, Boise was #4 in the final AP poll. But guess what? They were also #4 in the Massey computers.

In 2010, Boise did finish #9 in the final AP poll. But guess what? They were #5 in the final Massey computers.

In 2011, Boise did finish #8 in the final AP poll. But guess what? They were again #5 in the final Massey computers.

Now what about UCF? UCF last year finished #7 in the AP poll, and also #7 in the Massey computers.

If anything, the human voters were *more* biased against Boise when they were having their great runs 8-9 years ago than they were against UCF last year. Boise was ranked the same by the AP as by the computers one year, but AP voters had them significantly lower than the computers two other years. Last year, the AP and the computers had UCF the same.

What about right now? Again, the humans are biased *for* UCF not against. UCF is #15 in the current Massey rankings. The CFP has UCF at #12 and the AP has UCF at #9!

You guys are living in a fantasy land of UCF hype.
11-01-2018 02:28 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Jjoey52 Offline
All American
*

Posts: 4,035
Joined: Feb 2017
Reputation: 236
I Root For: ISU
Location:
Post: #47
College Football Playoff Rankings (October 30th)
(11-01-2018 02:28 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-01-2018 12:55 AM)Kittonhead Wrote:  Boise had very little competition within their conference in those years which helped to make them look like world beaters.

Thus the problem of the AAC, more competition but competition that might prevent one program from becoming super dominant.

How many times does this have to be debunked?

Yes, in 2009, Boise was #4 in the final AP poll. But guess what? They were also #4 in the Massey computers.

In 2010, Boise did finish #9 in the final AP poll. But guess what? They were #5 in the final Massey computers.

In 2011, Boise did finish #8 in the final AP poll. But guess what? They were again #5 in the final Massey computers.

Now what about UCF? UCF last year finished #7 in the AP poll, and also #7 in the Massey computers.

If anything, the human voters were *more* biased against Boise when they were having their great runs 8-9 years ago than they were against UCF last year. Boise was ranked the same by the AP as by the computers one year, but AP voters had them significantly lower than the computers two other years. Last year, the AP and the computers had UCF the same.

What about right now? Again, the humans are biased *for* UCF not against. UCF is #15 in the current Massey rankings. The CFP has UCF at #12 and the AP has UCF at #9!

You guys are living in a fantasy land of UCF hype.


Also, those rankings of teams Boise beat were at the end of the season. They were higher before Boise beat them.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
11-01-2018 05:06 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Tigersmoke4 Offline
All American
*

Posts: 2,507
Joined: Oct 2017
Reputation: 97
I Root For: Memphis
Location:
Post: #48
RE: College Football Playoff Rankings (October 30th)
Oh boy. If Pitt wins this game, suddenly UCF could have wins against 3 teams with winning records as opposed to none
after Memphis whoops ECU tomorrow,,,and two of those wins will have been against teams that have beaten top 25 ranked teams. Hmmm.05-stirthepot05-stirthepot
11-02-2018 09:32 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Tigersmoke4 Offline
All American
*

Posts: 2,507
Joined: Oct 2017
Reputation: 97
I Root For: Memphis
Location:
Post: #49
RE: College Football Playoff Rankings (October 30th)
(10-31-2018 09:37 PM)Jjoey52 Wrote:  To get the respect UCF has to play some big guns and win. Boise had to do it, TCU had to do it. Boise has a strong history of knocking off teams like Georgia, Va. Tech and Oregon.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Well now! UCF suddenly is about to have 3 wins over teams with winning records and two with top 25 wins (if Memphis beats ECU tomorrow of course). There Bonafides are rising. COGS02-13-banana
11-02-2018 09:48 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Kittonhead Offline
Hall of Famer
*

Posts: 10,000
Joined: Jun 2013
Reputation: 122
I Root For: Beat Matisse
Location:
Post: #50
RE: College Football Playoff Rankings (October 30th)
(11-01-2018 02:28 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-01-2018 12:55 AM)Kittonhead Wrote:  Boise had very little competition within their conference in those years which helped to make them look like world beaters.

Thus the problem of the AAC, more competition but competition that might prevent one program from becoming super dominant.

How many times does this have to be debunked?

Yes, in 2009, Boise was #4 in the final AP poll. But guess what? They were also #4 in the Massey computers.

In 2010, Boise did finish #9 in the final AP poll. But guess what? They were #5 in the final Massey computers.

In 2011, Boise did finish #8 in the final AP poll. But guess what? They were again #5 in the final Massey computers.

Now what about UCF? UCF last year finished #7 in the AP poll, and also #7 in the Massey computers.

Right so Boise as a super dominant team playing in a 9 team WAC was able to raise the entire strength of schedule by itself.

Very easy to be dominant out west when its a literal desert for recruiting and one strong program can clean up.

UCF is going up against Houston, SMU, USF, Memphis, Cincinnati, Temple all with top tier local recruiting grounds. In any given year 5 or 6 programs in the AAC are a legit threat for the access bowl.
11-03-2018 09:56 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
bullet Offline
Legend
*

Posts: 66,301
Joined: Apr 2012
Reputation: 3285
I Root For: Texas, UK, UGA
Location:
Post: #51
RE: College Football Playoff Rankings (October 30th)
So far the CFP top 25 is 10-8 on the day with at least one more guaranteed to lose. 3 were losses to higher ranked teams while 5 were losses to unranked teams. They really need to wait one more week before starting.
11-03-2018 07:02 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
shere khan Offline
Southerner
*

Posts: 60,515
Joined: Mar 2004
Reputation: 7461
I Root For: Tulane
Location: Teh transfer portal
Post: #52
RE: College Football Playoff Rankings (October 30th)
(10-31-2018 05:49 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-31-2018 01:32 PM)Gamecock Wrote:  
(10-31-2018 12:09 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Occums razor. Simplest explanation. Given that two independent polls using far more data points than the committee arrive at largely the same conclusion on thier own—-and then suddenly—these polls change when the committee begins issuing rankings—-we can safely say it’s simply Committee influence. It’s not complicated. It simply is what it is. We will likley see the influence in the poll rankings of Houston, UCF, Utah, and Fresno this week. As for the cap on UCF, it’s there. Undefeated UCF is by far the lowest ranked undefeated team—just barely even in the top 10. At this point in the season, a team on a 20 game win streak in the pre-CFP days would no doubt be in the top 4 or 5. In the pre-CFP past, a 20 game win streak would at least have them up there immediately adjacent to the other undefeated teams like Boise was long ago. In fact, the old BCS formula would have them at #9—inside the “no G5’s allowed” Top 10 CFP glass ceiling.

Exactly. Boise's state was number 3 or 4 for all of 2010 despite basically having the same schedule strength as UCF will this season.

How many times does this have to be debunked?

Yes, in 2010, TCU (then in the MWC) was #3 in the final BCS standings. But guess what? They were also #3 in the Massey computers.

In 2009, TCU was #4 in the final BCS standings and Boise was #6. But guess what? They were also #4 and #7 in the Massey computers.

The fact is, those non-power teams like Utah in 2008, Boise in 2009, and TCU in 2010 were *better* than UCF was last year or (so far) this year! That's why they were ranked so high in the computers, which can't be influenced by what the BCS or CFP or AP voters do.

In contrast, UCF is #15 in the current Massey rankings. The humans are actually biased *towards* UCF, not against them, as the CFP has UCF at #12 and the AP has UCF at #9!

You guys are living in a fantasy land of UCF hype. 07-coffee3
Your corndogs havent scored on bama in baton rouge since 2014. Your bulls just lost to Tulane.

Sad day quo
11-03-2018 11:01 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
P5PACSEC Offline
Banned

Posts: 844
Joined: Jul 2018
I Root For: P5- Texas Tech
Location: Austin
Post: #53
RE: College Football Playoff Rankings (October 30th)
Hey Tampa--- you don't have to worry about A&M or UH in this weeks committee rankings
11-03-2018 11:34 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
sierrajip Offline
Heisman
*

Posts: 5,697
Joined: May 2011
Reputation: 187
I Root For: UCF
Location:
Post: #54
RE: College Football Playoff Rankings (October 30th)
(10-31-2018 09:37 PM)Jjoey52 Wrote:  To get the respect UCF has to play some big guns and win. Boise had to do it, TCU had to do it. Boise has a strong history of knocking off teams like Georgia, Va. Tech and Oregon.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Baylor, Auburn, and they did beat Ga.
11-04-2018 11:44 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Post Reply 




User(s) browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)


Copyright © 2002-2024 Collegiate Sports Nation Bulletin Board System (CSNbbs), All Rights Reserved.
CSNbbs is an independent fan site and is in no way affiliated to the NCAA or any of the schools and conferences it represents.
This site monetizes links. FTC Disclosure.
We allow third-party companies to serve ads and/or collect certain anonymous information when you visit our web site. These companies may use non-personally identifiable information (e.g., click stream information, browser type, time and date, subject of advertisements clicked or scrolled over) during your visits to this and other Web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services likely to be of greater interest to you. These companies typically use a cookie or third party web beacon to collect this information. To learn more about this behavioral advertising practice or to opt-out of this type of advertising, you can visit http://www.networkadvertising.org.
Powered By MyBB, © 2002-2024 MyBB Group.