(11-11-2018 06:14 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  FAU beats UCF 80-79.

UCF picked to win AAC. FAU 1 winning season in 12 years.

Voters should’ve stuck with Cincy, regardless of how much they lost. 61-11 over 2 years.

American and A10 at it again...

Austin Peay 63
USF 63

Going to overtime because APSU fouled with .4 on the clock.

Niagara 80
Bonnie 72

Duquesne’s presently down to UIC, but VCU and St Joe’s come up winners.

“Why bother showing up?” game of the night

The Citadel 148
Mid-Atlantic Christian University 75

El Cid had 75 at the half.

(11-12-2018 09:28 PM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  American and A10 at it again...

Austin Peay 63
USF 63

Going to overtime because APSU fouled with .4 on the clock.

Niagara 80
Bonnie 72

Duquesne’s presently down to UIC, but VCU and St Joe’s come up winners.

“Why bother showing up?” game of the night

The Citadel 148
Mid-Atlantic Christian University 75

El Cid had 75 at the half.

That D1 teams are allowed to play Mid-Atlantic Christian in the regular season is more laughable than anything posted in this thread or will be going forward, including Duke losing by 40 to Alabama A&M.

MACU is a very tiny school (as in <250 students) that might be the third best team in the burgeoning metropolis of Elizabeth City, North Carolina (trailing D2 Elizabeth City State and Northeastern High School, whose most notable alumni is former NBA journeyman Kenny Williams). Though they'd probably beat Pasquotank County High School, which went 2-20 last year.

They'll have three other opportunities to grace this thread with games at Hampton, Norfolk State and North Carolina A&T.

USF escaped in OT.

AAC is 14-6, and all but 2 of those losses are bad. They can't take too many more hits prior to conference play.

MW is 11-5, but has a few teams still in play.

A10 is 17-11, with even more bad losses. It's hard to judge the A10 since the conference is HUGE.

AAC/MW are in warning territory.

Really for the AAC- the only 3 that would be bad losses would be SMU losing to So Miss, UCF to Florida Atlantic, and Wichita losing to La Tech.... The Ohio St win over Cincy is not a bad loss. The ECU loss to JMU is not a bad loss. The Tulane loss to Florida St(by 10 points closer than FSU beat Florida is not a bad loss.

BUT the league also has now at least 3 wins that they weren't projected to get- Wichita over Providence, USF over Austin Peay, and ECU over Lamar.

Also, not sure where you got your conference records but it's now-
AAC 15-6 vs D1 schools
A10 17-11 vs D1 schools
MWC 7-6 vs D1 schools

Hell, CUSA doing better than the A10 and MWC so far. They're 13-7 vs D1 schools. But 7 of their next 13 games vs d1 schools- they're projected to lose.

(11-11-2018 06:46 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  

(11-11-2018 06:14 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  FAU beats UCF 80-79.

UCF picked to win AAC. FAU 1 winning season in 12 years.

Voters should’ve stuck with Cincy, regardless of how much they lost. 61-11 over 2 years.

We better make some jump shots lol. Team will defend like hard though.

The problem for the AAC is that the Big East has one loss. That is their competition for at large bids this year.

(11-13-2018 10:10 AM)oliveandblue Wrote:  The problem for the AAC is that the Big East has one loss. That is their competition for at large bids this year.

But the Big East has had 1 tough game and they lost that. The 18 wins have been all cupcakes. The average opponent in those 18 games- average Ken Pom of 260. Right now by Ken Pom- only 1 of those 18 games would be considered a tier 3 game(and that was a game with 154 East Tennessee State). The other 17 are all tier 4 games. Also, with how the new NET system is set up- 4 of those 18 wins- were by fewer than 10 points.

Now not losing cupcake games is something. But end of the day- how the Big East is viewed will be in large bit in this next 2-3 week period starting tonight, where they actually play some good teams. I mean tonight Xavier plays Wisconsin and Georgetown plays Illinois.

Even beating a cupcake still sets the league up over the conferences, though. If its members can only beat the fluff of D1 and none of the P5, it still sets itself up as no better than sixth.

Given how shaky the A10, AAC, and MWC may be (or just are), I think an overall non-conference performance mark only hurts the middle of the conference where potential bubble teams would sit. It might push those iffy teams further out than in years where they are right in the thick of it all.

(11-13-2018 12:35 PM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  Even beating a cupcake still sets the league up over the conferences, though. If its members can only beat the fluff of D1 and none of the P5, it still sets itself up as no better than sixth.

Given how shaky the A10, AAC, and MWC may be (or just are), I think an overall non-conference performance mark only hurts the middle of the conference where potential bubble teams would sit. It might push those iffy teams further out than in years where they are right in the thick of it all.

The jury is still out on everyone. I mean for a lot of teams- the season just starts tonight.... I mean take the Big East. Avg win so far of 260 in Ken Pom....
tonight- 3 games avg KP rating of opponent- 99.67 with 2 top 75 opp.
tomorrow- 3 games avg KP rating of opponent- 27.67
Thursday- 2 games avg KP rating of 33.5
Friday- 3 games avg KP rating of 107.67
with 10 of these 11 games better than anyone the league has faced so far this year.

Those 10 games will mean far more to the conference than what they've got so far. These are your tier 1/2 games that matter so much with the tourney.

(11-12-2018 11:40 PM)stever20 Wrote:  The ECU loss to JMU is not a bad loss.

JMU's basketball program has been awful the last two seasons.

(11-13-2018 03:35 PM)seaking4steel Wrote:  

(11-12-2018 11:40 PM)stever20 Wrote:  The ECU loss to JMU is not a bad loss.

JMU's basketball program has been awful the last two seasons.

For ECU though they were projected to lose that game. And JMU is 3-0 for first time in years. They're projected 3rd in the CAA.

(11-13-2018 03:35 PM)seaking4steel Wrote:  

(11-12-2018 11:40 PM)stever20 Wrote:  The ECU loss to JMU is not a bad loss.

JMU's basketball program has been awful the last two seasons.

I'm assuming he's grading on a curve since we're talking about ECU basketball and it was a 1 point game. Otherwise IDK how you say that loss was not bad but losing to LT or USM are. FAU is a bad loss regardless unless they've made some HUGE strides in the offseason.

(11-12-2018 11:40 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Really for the AAC- the only 3 that would be bad losses would be SMU losing to So Miss, UCF to Florida Atlantic, and Wichita losing to La Tech.... The Ohio St win over Cincy is not a bad loss. The ECU loss to JMU is not a bad loss. The Tulane loss to Florida St(by 10 points closer than FSU beat Florida is not a bad loss.

BUT the league also has now at least 3 wins that they weren't projected to get- Wichita over Providence, USF over Austin Peay, and ECU over Lamar.

Also, not sure where you got your conference records but it's now-
AAC 15-6 vs D1 schools
A10 17-11 vs D1 schools
MWC 7-6 vs D1 schools

Hell, CUSA doing better than the A10 and MWC so far. They're 13-7 vs D1 schools. But 7 of their next 13 games vs d1 schools- they're projected to lose.

https://twitter.com/GoodmanHoops/status/...1800808449
https://twitter.com/DaveBorges/status/10...9926672391

Everyone will be shocked if there is more than two schools out of the AAC this year.

(11-13-2018 03:44 PM)TheBasketBallOpinion Wrote:  

(11-12-2018 11:40 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Really for the AAC- the only 3 that would be bad losses would be SMU losing to So Miss, UCF to Florida Atlantic, and Wichita losing to La Tech.... The Ohio St win over Cincy is not a bad loss. The ECU loss to JMU is not a bad loss. The Tulane loss to Florida St(by 10 points closer than FSU beat Florida is not a bad loss.

BUT the league also has now at least 3 wins that they weren't projected to get- Wichita over Providence, USF over Austin Peay, and ECU over Lamar.

Also, not sure where you got your conference records but it's now-
AAC 15-6 vs D1 schools
A10 17-11 vs D1 schools
MWC 7-6 vs D1 schools

Hell, CUSA doing better than the A10 and MWC so far. They're 13-7 vs D1 schools. But 7 of their next 13 games vs d1 schools- they're projected to lose.

https://twitter.com/GoodmanHoops/status/...1800808449
https://twitter.com/DaveBorges/status/10...9926672391

Everyone will be shocked if there is more than two schools out of the AAC this year.

But the thing is- The AAC is going to have 3 teams win at least 13 conference games. If those 3 all have at least 10 OOC wins, all 3 will make the tourney easily.... Last year top 3 won 14 games in conference play. It's hard for the AAC to only get 2 teams in.

(11-13-2018 03:48 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-13-2018 03:44 PM)TheBasketBallOpinion Wrote:  

(11-12-2018 11:40 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Really for the AAC- the only 3 that would be bad losses would be SMU losing to So Miss, UCF to Florida Atlantic, and Wichita losing to La Tech.... The Ohio St win over Cincy is not a bad loss. The ECU loss to JMU is not a bad loss. The Tulane loss to Florida St(by 10 points closer than FSU beat Florida is not a bad loss.

BUT the league also has now at least 3 wins that they weren't projected to get- Wichita over Providence, USF over Austin Peay, and ECU over Lamar.

Also, not sure where you got your conference records but it's now-
AAC 15-6 vs D1 schools
A10 17-11 vs D1 schools
MWC 7-6 vs D1 schools

Hell, CUSA doing better than the A10 and MWC so far. They're 13-7 vs D1 schools. But 7 of their next 13 games vs d1 schools- they're projected to lose.

https://twitter.com/GoodmanHoops/status/...1800808449
https://twitter.com/DaveBorges/status/10...9926672391

Everyone will be shocked if there is more than two schools out of the AAC this year.

But the thing is- The AAC is going to have 3 teams win at least 13 conference games. If those 3 all have at least 10 OOC wins, all 3 will make the tourney easily.... Last year top 3 won 14 games in conference play. It's hard for the AAC to only get 2 teams in.

Unless the AAC (and the A10 for that matter) gets teams ranked/receiving votes before conference play, conference record won't matter all that much in terms of at large bids.

The A10 has one team receiving votes, and it's a 25 for Davidson. The AAC has none. Hell the MAC has Buffalo ranked right now and 7 teams without a loss to date.

But really...we're too early in to tell which conferences are seriously in trouble. The A10 and AAC are leading contenders to disappoint to date, however the A10 still has 8 teams without a loss and the AAC still has 6. Obviously not all of them are going to continue like that, but if a good chunk of those teams keep winning in OOC, then the conferences might not end up disappointing after all.

The AAC will be a multi-bid league this year as it is every year and will likely end up with 3 teams in the tournament. Going forward from this year, if Hurley and Penny both work out, expect to see the conference start routinely producing 4-5 teams a year.

(11-13-2018 06:08 PM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  The AAC will be a multi-bid league this year as it is every year and will likely end up with 3 teams in the tournament. Going forward from this year, if Hurley and Penny both work out, expect to see the conference start routinely producing 4-5 teams a year.

Note:

This post was made in 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 and will be made in 2019,2020 etc.

AAC has never been a 5 bid conference. The average is 3.

(11-13-2018 06:08 PM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  The AAC will be a multi-bid league this year as it is every year and will likely end up with 3 teams in the tournament. Going forward from this year, if Hurley and Penny both work out, expect to see the conference start routinely producing 4-5 teams a year.

Agreed. Going forward. This year will be iffy. I’m only certain of 2 right now. And neither are anywhere near the top 25.

(11-13-2018 07:48 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(11-13-2018 06:08 PM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  The AAC will be a multi-bid league this year as it is every year and will likely end up with 3 teams in the tournament. Going forward from this year, if Hurley and Penny both work out, expect to see the conference start routinely producing 4-5 teams a year.

Note:

This post was made in 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 and will be made in 2019,2020 etc.

AAC has never been a 5 bid conference. The average is 3.

That was before the addition of WSU, resurgence of UH, and the hiring of Hurley and Penny Hardaway. Again last year even with Memphis and UConn still down the conference was projected to have 4-5 bids coming out of the non-conf. If UCF and SMU had stayed healthy last year it would've had that many. 100% the league is worse than it was last year, but it'll still probably land three teams in the tournament. The teams will just likely be seeded lower.