Unbeatens: (3 P5, 1G5)
Alabama
Central Florida
Clemson
Notre Dame

One Loss: (6 P5, 4G5)
Alabama Birmingham
Buffalo
Cincinnati
Georgia
Michigan
Ohio State
Oklahoma
Washington State
West Virginia
Utah State

Two Losses: (2 P5, 5 G5)
Army
Appalachian State
Boise State
Fresno State
Louisiana State
Syracuse
Troy

Yes there are fewer 2 loss teams than there are 1 loss teams and there are only 9 P5 schools for contract bowls and the CFP. So either there are going to be a lot of 3 and possibly 4 loss P5 schools heading to fill better paying bowls, or there's going to be a really nice payday for some of the G5 schools.

With two weeks to play the ranks of the undefeated and 1 loss schools can only shrink. I would think the ranks of 2 loss schools will grow.

Should prove to make for a very interesting Bowl Assignment Show this year!

(11-11-2018 06:47 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Yes there are fewer 2 loss teams than there are 1 loss teams and there are only 9 P5 schools for contract bowls and the CFP. So either there are going to be a lot of 3 and possibly 4 loss P5 schools heading to fill better paying bowls, or there's going to be a really nice payday for some of the G5 schools.

That first thing you said. It's in the contracts. The only way a G5 team can go to a good bowl (besides the Access Bowl) is if the P5 that has the tie in can't fill the bowl. (Or if everyone is agreeable and ESPN works some magic with a trade.)

(11-11-2018 07:05 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(11-11-2018 06:47 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Yes there are fewer 2 loss teams than there are 1 loss teams and there are only 9 P5 schools for contract bowls and the CFP. So either there are going to be a lot of 3 and possibly 4 loss P5 schools heading to fill better paying bowls, or there's going to be a really nice payday for some of the G5 schools.

That first thing you said. It's in the contracts. The only way a G5 team can go to a good bowl (besides the Access Bowl) is if the P5 that has the tie in can't fill the bowl. (Or if everyone is agreeable and ESPN works some magic with a trade.)

I fully aware of the contract status of the bowls, hence slim pickings. What I intended to drive home here is that (a) it might be better for the ratings this year if ESPN does do as you put it some "magic with a trade", or even more likely (b) it starts to call into tighter scrutiny the desire to have locked in contracts at all.

If the playoffs continue, or worse expand, and it's almost certain that they will continue (the tangent that might lead to another system would be a loss in the Alston suit), then consideration will have to be given to the non CFP contract bowls which would permit them to put together the best possible scenarios at the end of each season.

Will schools with larger traveling bases still be favored, yes. But there comes a point in which having higher ranked teams pitted against one another might offset a smaller traveling fan base with greater national interest.

I could have taken it another step and listed 3 loss schools, they aren't as plentiful as many might think this year either and certainly after the next 2 weeks and the CCG's there will be even fewer of those.

Furthermore now that the CFP is the goal of top rated, or just brand name schools within the P5, just how much of a crowd will they bring to a bowl when their CFP run fails. For schools that haven't been to a big bowl in awhile it will probably remain solid in bowl ticket sales and travel. For schools accustomed to making the run for the post season there seems to be a let down in also ran bowl tickets, even if that also ran is one of the contract bowls. Will host cities and TV execs find that hungrier fan bases make for better games to market? We'll see. But I have a sneaking suspicion that a once relied upon dynamic from brand names schools will actually begin to become less reliable as time goes on. And in years like this one where it is likely that the contract non CFP bowls could see some 4 loss entrants from the P5, it makes me wonder how those ticket sales are going to go for fan bases that are disappointed not only with finishing out of the running for the CFP, but with seasons that fall 2 shy of 10 wins.

At this point it would be surprising if we don't have at least two teams in CFP bowls with 3 or 4 losses.

If one team sweeps the two OU-WVU games, the other will have at least 3 losses. (Edit: That's only the case if OU and WVU are both in the CCG; see explanation below.)

For Syracuse to not have at least 3 losses, they have to beat Notre Dame this Saturday and then win at BC next Saturday. LSU would have to win at Texas A&M; that is probably a 50-50 game.

(11-11-2018 07:23 PM)Wedge Wrote:  At this point it would be surprising if we don't have at least two teams in CFP bowls with 3 or 4 losses.

If one team sweeps the two OU-WVU games, the other will have at least 3 losses.

For Syracuse to not have at least 3 losses, they have to beat Notre Dame this Saturday and then win at BC next Saturday. LSU would have to win at Texas A&M; that is probably a 50-50 game.

Exactly! And would a 3 loss Oklahoma bring tons of disappointed fans to New Orleans? West Virginia might, but should they lose to OU twice in two weeks they may not feel as strongly about those high dollar tickets either.

Tuesday will likely have the earliest appearance(s) of 4-loss team(s) in the short history of the CFP. Hasn't been a 4-loss team in their rankings until the rankings after the 13th week, end of regular season.

Cheers,
Neil

(11-11-2018 07:46 PM)OrangeDude Wrote:  Tuesday will likely have the earliest appearance(s) of 4-loss team(s) in the short history of the CFP. Hasn't been a 4-loss team in their rankings until the rankings after the 13th week, end of regular season.

Cheers,
Neil

Yep, it's the fattest middle of the bell curve I can remember in college football, and the true mediocrity of the middle is evident when you watch many of these schools play, including my own.

(11-11-2018 06:47 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Unbeatens: (3 P5, 1G5)
Alabama
Central Florida
Clemson
Notre Dame

One Loss: (6 P5, 4G5)
Alabama Birmingham
Buffalo
Cincinnati
Georgia
Michigan
Ohio State
Oklahoma
Washington State
West Virginia
Utah State

Two Losses: (2 P5, 4 G5)
Appalachian State
Boise State
Fresno State
Louisiana State
Syracuse
Troy

Yes there are fewer 2 loss teams than there are 1 loss teams and there are only 9 P5 schools for contract bowls and the CFP. So either there are going to be a lot of 3 and possibly 4 loss P5 schools heading to fill better paying bowls, or there's going to be a really nice payday for some of the G5 schools.

With two weeks to play the ranks of the undefeated and 1 loss schools can only shrink. I would think the ranks of 2 loss schools will grow.

Should prove to make for a very interesting Bowl Assignment Show this year!

There are two 6-4 teams ranked this week! At this time last year there were fewer 1 loss teams left, but a lot more two loss teams. Only 7 now (you're missing Army).

(11-11-2018 07:49 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(11-11-2018 07:46 PM)OrangeDude Wrote:  Tuesday will likely have the earliest appearance(s) of 4-loss team(s) in the short history of the CFP. Hasn't been a 4-loss team in their rankings until the rankings after the 13th week, end of regular season.

Cheers,
Neil

Yep, it's the fattest middle of the bell curve I can remember in college football, and the true mediocrity of the middle is evident when you watch many of these schools play, including my own.

Kentucky is the 4th best team in the SEC. And they would be lucky to be 4-4 in a typical SEC season.

All right, let's pull some bowl projections out of my rear end right now. Starting with the current CFP rankings, let's say every higher ranked team wins, and no one's ranking changes. That's not realistic, but it's quick.

Semifinals(Cotton, Orange): Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame, Michigan (12-1).
Rose: B1G vs PAC Champ. Ohio State (10-2, #10) vs Wazzu (12-1, #8)
Sugar: SEC vs XII Champ. Georgia (11-2, #5) vs Oklahoma (12-1, #6)
Then the Fiesta and Peach get UCF (13-0, #12), LSU (#7, 10-2), West Virginia (10-3, #9), and, er, Kentucky (9-3, #11). Let's leave it be so I can finish this post.

Next 3 picks, looking at the CFP rankings:
SEC: Florida (9-3, #15), Mississippi State (8-4, #16), Auburn (7-5, #24)
OK that's not great, but the reality is that one of those gets swapped out for 9-3 Kentucky (who will NOT be #11 in the next rankings). (Not that it really matters, the 4-5 SEC picks after the CFP and Cap One Bowl are all theoretically equal--Charlotte, Music City, Gator, Tampa, Houston, Liberty)

B1G: Michigan State (8-4, #18), Penn State (9-3, #20) and Western Division champs Northwestern (8-5).

So the Cap One Bowl (the only one that pays a premium for a premium matchup) can have 9-3 #20 Penn STate vs 9-3 #15 Florida. Everybody else with an SEC-Big Ten game can take their matchup of 2 6-6 schools with big traveling fanbases and enjoy their Iowa-South Carolina game or whatever.

The bowls are not going to prefer an 11-1 Cincinnati over a 6-6 South Carolina, or a 12-1 Buffalo over a 6-6 Indiana. that's been demonstrated pretty bluntly.

(11-11-2018 07:20 PM)JRsec Wrote:  And in years like this one where it is likely that the contract non CFP bowls could see some 4 loss entrants from the P5, it makes me wonder how those ticket sales are going to go for fan bases that are disappointed not only with finishing out of the running for the CFP, but with seasons that fall 2 shy of 10 wins.

Are you talking about the PEach and Fiesta, or the non-CFP bowls?

Because last year's Outback Bowl between 8-4 Michigan and 8-4 South Carolina had 45,000 in the stands. (Link)

(11-11-2018 08:44 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(11-11-2018 07:20 PM)JRsec Wrote:  And in years like this one where it is likely that the contract non CFP bowls could see some 4 loss entrants from the P5, it makes me wonder how those ticket sales are going to go for fan bases that are disappointed not only with finishing out of the running for the CFP, but with seasons that fall 2 shy of 10 wins.

Are you talking about the PEach and Fiesta, or the non-CFP bowls?

Because last year's Outback Bowl between 8-4 Michigan and 8-4 South Carolina had 45,000 in the stands. (Link)

I still wonder if the committee would be better off giving a second at large to a g5 team and make them the highest ranked g5 champion. For example 12-1 Utah State and 12-0 UCF. Same could be said for an 11-1 or 12 -1 Cincinnati.

(11-11-2018 08:44 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(11-11-2018 07:20 PM)JRsec Wrote:  And in years like this one where it is likely that the contract non CFP bowls could see some 4 loss entrants from the P5, it makes me wonder how those ticket sales are going to go for fan bases that are disappointed not only with finishing out of the running for the CFP, but with seasons that fall 2 shy of 10 wins.

Are you talking about the PEach and Fiesta, or the non-CFP bowls?

Because last year's Outback Bowl between 8-4 Michigan and 8-4 South Carolina had 45,000 in the stands. (Link)

1. Outback bowl capacity is 66,900 roughly so 45,000 is a little under 1/3rd empty.

2. It's a trend that will gradually deepen in my opinion. The CFP is 5 years old and the expectations for the P5 schools have grown. Likewise the allure of the bowls have begun to fade, particularly for Southeastern fan bases familiar with most destinations. Bowl ticket sales were down in Atlanta last year because even though it's roughly an hour and half drive for the Auburn fan base, it was a let down.

If L.S.U. heads there at least it will be a destination they haven't frequented as much, but it might not be a game they'll look forward to playing as much as a Penn State.

We'll have to watch these trends to see where they are headed the next few years but given the regular season attendance has been on a slow but steady decline for a few years now, I expect the post season play to head that way a little quicker for non CFP games and for schools whose fan bases aren't new to the experience.

3. My assertion is that should these trends continue the traditional desire for schools with large fan bases may not be as appealing as looking for schools whose fan bases would be excited to make the game.

4. There are more scenarios than everyone wins out in which the possibility of 4 loss teams arise. In Oklahoma's case they are probably on par with West Virginia both offensively and defensively. Those final two games could easily be split leaving both out.

My point is it is going to be interesting because this year top performers are scarcer.

i would think 9-3 Tex woul be in the mix

(11-11-2018 09:32 PM)templefootballfan Wrote:  i would think 9-3 Tex woul be in the mix

Look, Texas beat OU head to head. WVU beat Texas head to head. If W.V.U. beats OU in the final game of the season they will play Texas in the CCG. If OU beats WVU they will play UT in the finals. I was wrong about the rematch being a given. That won't happen unless Texas loses to Iowa State or Kansas. So there's still a great chance for Texas to win the Big 12 if they win out. But that also means there is still a great chance for the Big 12 to have a two loss champion.

(11-11-2018 09:53 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(11-11-2018 09:32 PM)templefootballfan Wrote:  i would think 9-3 Tex woul be in the mix

Look, Texas beat OU head to head. WVU beat Texas head to head. If W.V.U. beats OU in the final game of the season they will play Texas in the CCG. If OU beats WVU they will play UT in the finals. I was wrong about the rematch being a given. That won't happen unless Texas loses to Iowa State or Kansas. So there's still a great chance for Texas to win the Big 12 if they win out. But that also means there is still a great chance for the Big 12 to have a two loss champion.

It is more complicated, yeah...

The Texas-Iowa State winner will finish 7-2 in conference, barring an upset the following week.

Texas beat OU and lost to WVU. ISU beat WVU and lost to OU.

So, assuming that neither OU nor WVU is upset this weekend, and that neither UT nor ISU is upset the following weekend, then depending on the outcome of ISU-UT and OU-WVU, these are the possible CCG matchups.

OU and UT win: CCG is OU vs. WVU.

OU and ISU win: CCG is OU vs. ISU. (ISU would have to cancel its Dec. 1 makeup game vs. FCS Incarnate Word.)

WVU and UT win: CCG is WVU vs. UT.

WVU and ISU win: CCG is WVU vs. OU.