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Yay or Nay on Promotion/Relegation within the G5?
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CaliWG Offline
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Exclamation Yay or Nay on Promotion/Relegation within the G5?
Everyone focuses on what the G5's don't have, let's focus for a minute on what they do have:

-An automatic bid to a New Year's Six bowl game
-$90+ million in annual College Football Playoff Revenue

Now, if that was split among a single conference instead of 60+ teams, you know what that looks like? A Power Conference.

If the G5s would start thinking bigger than their measly $1.5 million per team payout, they could use their autonomy to create a sixth football-only Power Conference and the P5's couldn't do a thing about it. And here's how they could do it:

-5 G5 football-only conferences (1 Premier, 4 regional West/Central/North/South)
-NY6 Bid goes to Premier Conference winner
-CFP money is divided among Premier Conference members only
-TV deal is negotiated for Premier Conference (The Big East was offered $100 million/yr before it fell apart, this conference could likely get something similar, especially with a Championship game)
-The regional conferences negotiate their TV deals as a whole (big value in each regional championship game being a play-in game for Premier conference membership)
-Premier Conference membership can fluctuate between 9 and 18 depending on the number of schools that qualify
-Teams with a 5 year average Sagarin rating in the top half of CFB (Top 65, with lowest rating dropped allowing for the occasional down year) AND that average 30k+ in attendance (TV money only comes if members actually have fan bases) earn a spot in the premiere conference
-Regional conference champions are admitted to the premier conference for the following season
-By eliminating bad teams from the Premier conference, the champ actually has an outside shot at the CFP due to the boost to SOS
-All other sports go to traditional regional conferences that actually make sense and minimize travel costs (Tulsa & UConn in the same basketball conference? Nope.)

The G5's could do all of this without needing anything from the P5's, but it would involve sacrifice and investment in their own programs, which too many aren't willing to do. Given the criteria, a Year 1 version of the conference would look something like this:

UCF, USF, Navy, Houston, Memphis, Temple, BYU, Boise St, San Diego St, Cincinnati

With several schools close to qualifying (Fresno St, Marshall, App State, Air Force, Colorado St, Southern Miss, etc.)

So is this something you would be in favor of?
11-12-2018 03:26 PM
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HuskyU Offline
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RE: Yay or Nay on Promotion/Relegation within the G5?
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11-12-2018 03:38 PM
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Foreverandever Offline
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RE: Yay or Nay on Promotion/Relegation within the G5?
You can tell when it's become obvious to the g4 that the ny6 bowl is again controlled by the AAC.

They absolutely flood this board (the mw faction in particular) with ideas that would guarantee a conference what is already virtually guaranteed to the AAC as is.

No thanks.

We'll just keep on, keepin on. . P6 or bust.
11-12-2018 04:12 PM
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YNot Offline
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RE: Yay or Nay on Promotion/Relegation within the G5?
Could be fun. One of the issues with promotion in college football is that you only have your players through their senior year. Another major issue is that it is difficult for G5 schools to keep a good coach after a great season. P5 money would definitely help there, but the relegation part of the equation makes that less likely.

You could easily have scenarios where regional champions make a nice run with some great senior players and a great coach. The team gets promoted to the Premier conference...only to regress significantly in the next year in the Premier conference because it has lost its great coach and key players. The team slides right back to one of the regional conferences.

And, it takes more than one great season to build a significant fan base - the tye of fan base that would be needed to really establish a true P5-level football program.

And, your assumption that the Premier conference could land a $100M media deal is not likely. The aggregate payouts to all of the G5, plus BYU and Army, comes out substantially less than $100M. I don't see it. And, even if the Premier conference could land the $100M deal, that's still only $10/year for the Premier conference teams. That's about 30% of the bottom of the P5. Not sure that would make much of a competitive difference in relation to the P5.
(This post was last modified: 11-12-2018 04:14 PM by YNot.)
11-12-2018 04:13 PM
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CaliWG Offline
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RE: Yay or Nay on Promotion/Relegation within the G5?
(11-12-2018 04:12 PM)Foreverandever Wrote:  You can tell when it's become obvious to the g4 that the ny6 bowl is again controlled by the AAC.

They absolutely flood this board (the mw faction in particular) with ideas that would guarantee a conference what is already virtually guaranteed to the AAC as is.

No thanks.

We'll just keep on, keepin on. . P6 or bust.

I'm actually a BYU fan. And the AAC blew its chance to become a "P6" conference when they expanded too quickly. You can't become a power conference without having programs with fan bases across the board, and Tulsa, Tulane & SMU don't have them. When the biggest draws in the conference only average 35k/game, you don't have the credibility to also have multiple programs averaging 20k or less. Networks aren't going to pay for a product that doesn't even sell to its core audience. The American got about 2/3rds of its membership right, then, instead of building judiciously, sold its future for a conference championship game.

By creating a conference that rewards programs that build from within, and raising the ceiling of what they can accomplish, you develop a much more interesting product and you give fans a reason to be engaged long term.
11-12-2018 04:43 PM
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CaliWG Offline
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RE: Yay or Nay on Promotion/Relegation within the G5?
(11-12-2018 04:13 PM)YNot Wrote:  Could be fun. One of the issues with promotion in college football is that you only have your players through their senior year. Another major issue is that it is difficult for G5 schools to keep a good coach after a great season. P5 money would definitely help there, but the relegation part of the equation makes that less likely.

You could easily have scenarios where regional champions make a nice run with some great senior players and a great coach. The team gets promoted to the Premier conference...only to regress significantly in the next year in the Premier conference because it has lost its great coach and key players. The team slides right back to one of the regional conferences.

And, it takes more than one great season to build a significant fan base - the tye of fan base that would be needed to really establish a true P5-level football program.

And, your assumption that the Premier conference could land a $100M media deal is not likely. The aggregate payouts to all of the G5, plus BYU and Army, comes out substantially less than $100M. I don't see it. And, even if the Premier conference could land the $100M deal, that's still only $10/year for the Premier conference teams. That's about 30% of the bottom of the P5. Not sure that would make much of a competitive difference in relation to the P5.

That Big East $100M figure is probably about right and may even be low because some combination of BYU/Boise St/San Diego St, etc. opens up an entirely new time slot to the conference that wasn't available to the Big East. Even if it is only $10M/yr per team for TV, if you add another $9M/yr of CFP revenue on top of that you are already +$15M/yr before you even get to potential increased ticket revenue & donations due to the improved schedule & conference strength. And then recruits view you as a real "Power" program and the level of talent rises as well.

To your point about programs not developing because they'd get dropped. Note that the lowest year rating among the five is dropped to account for the occasional down year. But the truth is that you don't want a conference full of one hit wonders. You want a conference that is sustainable and that comes from consistency even when a great group of Seniors graduates and/or a great head coach leaves. The hope is that the increased profile due to the power conference label and the additional revenue would allow these programs to keep coaches that they aren't able to in the current setup.
(This post was last modified: 11-12-2018 04:56 PM by CaliWG.)
11-12-2018 04:53 PM
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YNot Offline
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Post: #7
RE: Yay or Nay on Promotion/Relegation within the G5?
(11-12-2018 04:53 PM)CaliWG Wrote:  
(11-12-2018 04:13 PM)YNot Wrote:  Could be fun. One of the issues with promotion in college football is that you only have your players through their senior year. Another major issue is that it is difficult for G5 schools to keep a good coach after a great season. P5 money would definitely help there, but the relegation part of the equation makes that less likely.

You could easily have scenarios where regional champions make a nice run with some great senior players and a great coach. The team gets promoted to the Premier conference...only to regress significantly in the next year in the Premier conference because it has lost its great coach and key players. The team slides right back to one of the regional conferences.

And, it takes more than one great season to build a significant fan base - the tye of fan base that would be needed to really establish a true P5-level football program.

And, your assumption that the Premier conference could land a $100M media deal is not likely. The aggregate payouts to all of the G5, plus BYU and Army, comes out substantially less than $100M. I don't see it. And, even if the Premier conference could land the $100M deal, that's still only $10/year for the Premier conference teams. That's about 30% of the bottom of the P5. Not sure that would make much of a competitive difference in relation to the P5.

That Big East $100M figure is probably about right and may even be low because some combination of BYU/Boise St/San Diego St, etc. opens up an entirely new time slot to the conference that wasn't available to the Big East. Even if it is only $10M/yr per team for TV, if you add another $9M/yr of CFP revenue on top of that you are already +$15M/yr before you even get to potential increased ticket revenue & donations due to the improved schedule & conference strength. And then recruits view you as a real "Power" program and the level of talent rises as well.

If the 10 best non-P5 football programs were worth $100M/year, the aggregate non-P5 programs would make over $100/year right now. What do AAC + MWC + BYU + Army/Navy game make today? It's not close to $100M/year....and that also includes basketball inventory.

(11-12-2018 04:53 PM)CaliWG Wrote:  To your point about programs not developing because they'd get dropped. Note that the lowest year rating among the five is dropped to account for the occasional down year. But the truth is that you don't want a conference full of one hit wonders. You want a conference that is sustainable and that comes from consistency even when a great group of Seniors graduates and/or a great head coach leaves. The hope is that the increased profile due to the power conference label and the additional revenue would allow these programs to keep coaches that they aren't able to in the current setup.

I guess I overlooked something in your proposal. I thought I read that the 4 regional champions would be promoted to the Premier conference each season. That's a ton of turnover - 4 regional champions replace 4 Premier conference members each season?

Based on your original conference make up and this year's standings, you'd be looking to promote NIU or Buffalo, UAB or Middle Tennessee, and Troy or UL Monroe to replace Navy, BYU, and Memphis after Year 1....

You *might* be able to get away with 1 or 2....if the regional champs beat the lower Premier teams in knockout games. But, you'd need to re-write some scheduling rules for that to happen.
11-12-2018 06:13 PM
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #8
RE: Yay or Nay on Promotion/Relegation within the G5?
(11-12-2018 04:13 PM)YNot Wrote:  Could be fun. One of the issues with promotion in college football is that you only have your players through their senior year. Another major issue is that it is difficult for G5 schools to keep a good coach after a great season. P5 money would definitely help there, but the relegation part of the equation makes that less likely.

You could easily have scenarios where regional champions make a nice run with some great senior players and a great coach. The team gets promoted to the Premier conference...only to regress significantly in the next year in the Premier conference because it has lost its great coach and key players. The team slides right back to one of the regional conferences.

And, it takes more than one great season to build a significant fan base - the tye of fan base that would be needed to really establish a true P5-level football program.

And, your assumption that the Premier conference could land a $100M media deal is not likely. The aggregate payouts to all of the G5, plus BYU and Army, comes out substantially less than $100M. I don't see it. And, even if the Premier conference could land the $100M deal, that's still only $10/year for the Premier conference teams. That's about 30% of the bottom of the P5. Not sure that would make much of a competitive difference in relation to the P5.

Thats the basic general issue---G5 teams tend to rise and fall pretty quickly. A relegation system would always be a year behind. There is really no way to fix the G5's 2 major issues---no access to the actual CFP playoff and no guaranteed quality post season destination for 4 of the 5 G5 champions.

Not much that can be done about the CFP issue until the CFP is expanded to 8. However, if the G5 was really serious about fixing the G5 post season---it would skim about 5-10 million of the G5 share of the CFP money (total of 85-90 million) to create a 3 "Champions Series Bowls". The skimming would be done for about 2 years to create a 10-20 million dollar fund. Two of the new "Champions Bowls" bowls would feature payouts high enough to attract 8-10 win selections from the P5 as opponents. The third bowl would pit the #4 ranked G5 champ vs the #5 ranked G5 champ. All 3 games would pay 1 million each to the G5 participants and 3-4 million each to the P5 participants.

I see no reason these bowls would not be as profitable as any other mid-level Texas/Gator/Music City level bowl. Thus, once the initial 10-20 million dollar investment is made--they should be self supporting from then on (might even spin off a profit for the G5 to split).
(This post was last modified: 11-12-2018 06:30 PM by Attackcoog.)
11-12-2018 06:27 PM
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CaliWG Offline
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RE: Yay or Nay on Promotion/Relegation within the G5?
(11-12-2018 06:13 PM)YNot Wrote:  
(11-12-2018 04:53 PM)CaliWG Wrote:  
(11-12-2018 04:13 PM)YNot Wrote:  Could be fun. One of the issues with promotion in college football is that you only have your players through their senior year. Another major issue is that it is difficult for G5 schools to keep a good coach after a great season. P5 money would definitely help there, but the relegation part of the equation makes that less likely.

You could easily have scenarios where regional champions make a nice run with some great senior players and a great coach. The team gets promoted to the Premier conference...only to regress significantly in the next year in the Premier conference because it has lost its great coach and key players. The team slides right back to one of the regional conferences.

And, it takes more than one great season to build a significant fan base - the tye of fan base that would be needed to really establish a true P5-level football program.

And, your assumption that the Premier conference could land a $100M media deal is not likely. The aggregate payouts to all of the G5, plus BYU and Army, comes out substantially less than $100M. I don't see it. And, even if the Premier conference could land the $100M deal, that's still only $10/year for the Premier conference teams. That's about 30% of the bottom of the P5. Not sure that would make much of a competitive difference in relation to the P5.

That Big East $100M figure is probably about right and may even be low because some combination of BYU/Boise St/San Diego St, etc. opens up an entirely new time slot to the conference that wasn't available to the Big East. Even if it is only $10M/yr per team for TV, if you add another $9M/yr of CFP revenue on top of that you are already +$15M/yr before you even get to potential increased ticket revenue & donations due to the improved schedule & conference strength. And then recruits view you as a real "Power" program and the level of talent rises as well.

If the 10 best non-P5 football programs were worth $100M/year, the aggregate non-P5 programs would make over $100/year right now. What do AAC + MWC + BYU + Army/Navy game make today? It's not close to $100M/year....and that also includes basketball inventory.

(11-12-2018 04:53 PM)CaliWG Wrote:  To your point about programs not developing because they'd get dropped. Note that the lowest year rating among the five is dropped to account for the occasional down year. But the truth is that you don't want a conference full of one hit wonders. You want a conference that is sustainable and that comes from consistency even when a great group of Seniors graduates and/or a great head coach leaves. The hope is that the increased profile due to the power conference label and the additional revenue would allow these programs to keep coaches that they aren't able to in the current setup.

I guess I overlooked something in your proposal. I thought I read that the 4 regional champions would be promoted to the Premier conference each season. That's a ton of turnover - 4 regional champions replace 4 Premier conference members each season?

Based on your original conference make up and this year's standings, you'd be looking to promote NIU or Buffalo, UAB or Middle Tennessee, and Troy or UL Monroe to replace Navy, BYU, and Memphis after Year 1....

You *might* be able to get away with 1 or 2....if the regional champs beat the lower Premier teams in knockout games. But, you'd need to re-write some scheduling rules for that to happen.

The only teams that would get relegated are the ones that don't meet the criteria to stay (Sagarin & Attendance). So basically what would happen is you'd have a group of teams on the precipice of qualifying long term, but aren't quite there, moving up & down for a few years until they're solidly in. And the conference can grow to as many as 20 if needed. But the likelihood that even 16 G5 programs could have a Sagarin average of 65 or better is relatively low. That being said, if it were to happen, then that conference would probably be ranked in the Top 3 overall. What is most likely to occur is 12-14 programs distinguish themselves and then you'd have 4 lesser programs trading places.
11-12-2018 06:28 PM
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YNot Offline
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RE: Yay or Nay on Promotion/Relegation within the G5?
(11-12-2018 06:27 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(11-12-2018 04:13 PM)YNot Wrote:  Could be fun. One of the issues with promotion in college football is that you only have your players through their senior year. Another major issue is that it is difficult for G5 schools to keep a good coach after a great season. P5 money would definitely help there, but the relegation part of the equation makes that less likely.

You could easily have scenarios where regional champions make a nice run with some great senior players and a great coach. The team gets promoted to the Premier conference...only to regress significantly in the next year in the Premier conference because it has lost its great coach and key players. The team slides right back to one of the regional conferences.

And, it takes more than one great season to build a significant fan base - the tye of fan base that would be needed to really establish a true P5-level football program.

And, your assumption that the Premier conference could land a $100M media deal is not likely. The aggregate payouts to all of the G5, plus BYU and Army, comes out substantially less than $100M. I don't see it. And, even if the Premier conference could land the $100M deal, that's still only $10/year for the Premier conference teams. That's about 30% of the bottom of the P5. Not sure that would make much of a competitive difference in relation to the P5.

Thats the basic general issue---G5 teams tend to rise and fall pretty quickly. A relegation system would always be a year behind. There is really no way to fix the G5's 2 major issues---no access to the actual CFP playoff and no guaranteed quality post season destination for 4 of the 5 G5 champions.

Not much that can be done about the CFP issue until the CFP is expanded to 8. However, if the G5 was really serious about fixing the G5 post season---it would skim about 5-10 million of the G5 share of the CFP money (total of 85-90 million) to create a 3 "Champions Series Bowls". The skimming would be done for about 2 years to create a 10-20 million dollar fund. Two of the new "Champions Bowls" bowls would feature payouts high enough to attract 8-10 win selections from the P5 as opponents. The third bowl would pit the #4 ranked G5 champ vs the #5 ranked G5 champ. All 3 games would pay 1 million each to the G5 participants and 3-4 million each to the P5 participants.

I see no reason these bowls would not be as profitable as any other mid-level Texas/Gator/Music City level bowl. Thus, once the initial 10-20 million dollar investment is made--they should be self supporting from then on (might even spin off a profit for the G5 to split).

It would be better for the AAC to do this by itself...or may be with the MWC. Create a pool of money to establish better bowl games, including two 8-10 win selections from the P5 ranks and the next best G5 champion. The AAC bowl lineup could look like this:

#1 - NY6 (Peach, Cotton, Fiesta) v. at large
#2 - TBD v. B12 #4 or PAC #4
#3 - Texas Bowl v. SEC #5
#4 - Armed Forces Bowl v. MWC #1 or CUSA #1
#5 - Military Bowl v. ACC #7
#6 - Birmingham Bowl v. SEC #9
#7 - Gasparilla Bowl v. ACC #10
#8 - Hawaii Bowl v. MWC
#9 - Cure Bowl v. CUA/MAC/Sun Belt
11-12-2018 06:45 PM
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