Committee will dismiss a win at Ohio State as early season luck but reward the Buckeyes for winning the OSU-Michigan game.

The big advantage is when you are playing a Top 10 team at the end of the season with immediate poll impact.

I selected "no way, not ever" but if Cincy runs the table and no undefeated or 1 loss P5 teams then yes.

It really depends. Houston could have got in a few years ago with their schedule. If Ohio State or UCLA win their conference or come close, then, depending on other outcomes still, yes there is certainly a decent chance. Cincinnati would still have to look very impressive (not like they lucked into to many wins), but I'll lean to yes if all that falls into place.

Edit: The thing people seem to miss about the committee is that it is opposite of the polls in one big regard. The polls tend to look first at who you lost to and then go to who you beat. The committee, with a few exceptions to me (they really like Alabama even before have played too many tough games), tends to work the reverse. They love to see good victories, especially on the road, and then will factor out losses (and be a bit more forgiving on them). This has worked out against UCF, but worked for Houston and would likely work for Cincinnati in this scenario.

(11-14-2018 04:50 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  Yes.

In 2009, TCU would have been in a 4-team playoff, even though there were 3 undefeated power conference champions.

TCU beat 3-9 Virginia, 8-5 Clemson, 7-5 SMU (C-USA), FCS Texas State, and 2 ranked teams in-conference (Utah and BYU).

#5 was 12-1 Florida. As good as they were, Florida only beat 1 ranked team during the regular season.

10-2 Ohio State, 10-2 Oregon, and 8-5 Clemson won their conferences but would have been left out. Even if Georgia Tech had beaten Clemson in the ACC title game, they would have been 10-2.

IT's a different selection system. I firmly believe the committee will look at a 7-0 or 8-0 Bearcats team and place them in the teens at the first ranking, with the Buckeyes somewhere below that (I expect that an OSU team that loses an early season game probably loses another game or two along the way, and Urban Meyer drama escalates).

God Bless the 4 idealistic souls that voted yes and believe this system is fair.

The reality no team outside The ACC, Big 10, Big 12, PAC or SEC is going to get it. I'm not saying if UCF keeps going undefeated year after year that there won't be some questions, as there should be, about their access to the CFP. The committees will give some BS answers and we'll go back to the same group of teams.

I say that because even in the conferences that are eligible there are subsets. I will use the ACC for example. An undefeated ACC will get in but only Clemson or FSU gets in with 1 loss. Anyone else in the conference would have zero shot of getting in with 1 loss. I will go as far as to say if all 5 conferences had an undefeated champion, and the ACC's champion wasn't Clemson or FSU, they better hope The Big 12's undefeated champion isn't Oklahoma or Texas or The PAC's isn't USC.

The short answer is no UC won't get it.
CJ

(11-15-2018 10:42 AM)CardinalJim Wrote:  God Bless the 4 idealistic souls that voted yes and believe this system is fair.

The reality no team outside The ACC, Big 10, Big 12, PAC or SEC is going to get it. I'm not saying if UCF keeps going undefeated year after year that there won't be some questions, as there should be, about their access to the CFP. The committees will give some BS answers and we'll go back to the same group of teams.

I say that because even in the conferences that are eligible there are subsets. I will use the ACC for example. An undefeated ACC will get in but only Clemson or FSU gets in with 1 loss. Anyone else in the conference would have zero shot of getting in with 1 loss. I will go as far as to say if all 5 conferences had an undefeated champion, and the ACC's champion wasn't Clemson or FSU, they better hope The Big 12's undefeated champion isn't Oklahoma or Texas or The PAC's isn't USC.

The short answer is no UC won't get it.
CJ

Jim nails it pretty good here. However relative to the PAC there is plenty of history with Washington and UCLA. What a Don James Huskie team did 30 years ago in a Rose Bowl matters today.

(11-15-2018 10:50 AM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  

(11-15-2018 10:42 AM)CardinalJim Wrote:  God Bless the 4 idealistic souls that voted yes and believe this system is fair.

The reality no team outside The ACC, Big 10, Big 12, PAC or SEC is going to get it. I'm not saying if UCF keeps going undefeated year after year that there won't be some questions, as there should be, about their access to the CFP. The committees will give some BS answers and we'll go back to the same group of teams.

I say that because even in the conferences that are eligible there are subsets. I will use the ACC for example. An undefeated ACC will get in but only Clemson or FSU gets in with 1 loss. Anyone else in the conference would have zero shot of getting in with 1 loss. I will go as far as to say if all 5 conferences had an undefeated champion, and the ACC's champion wasn't Clemson or FSU, they better hope The Big 12's undefeated champion isn't Oklahoma or Texas or The PAC's isn't USC.

The short answer is no UC won't get it.
CJ

Jim nails it pretty good here. However relative to the PAC there is plenty of history with Washington and UCLA. What a Don James Huskie team did 30 years ago in a Rose Bowl matters today.

That's one of the things that always cracks me up. I've heard a lot of people argue what UCF did last year doesn't mean anything for this year's playoff spot, but at the same time argue on the other side of their mouth that certain schools deserve to be ranked higher because of their legacy. Can't have it both ways guy and if so UCF's record last year is more important than what Washington did 30 years ago because most of the same guys are still there. Steve Emtman and Mark Brunell aren't suiting it up for the Huskies anymore.

Better off if it got them into the acc or big 12

(11-14-2018 08:28 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Depends on how good Ohio State and UCLA are.

And whether they win the AAC this year or not.

I think Houston would have made it if they had gone unbeaten the year they beat Oklahoma. Oklahoma was preseason top 5. And Houston was pretty highly ranked as they had been good the year before.

So if Ohio St. is really good and Cincinnati finishes this year strong, then its possible if they run the table. UCLA being bowl caliber would be a plus.

If Cincinnati starts unranked, then no. If Ohio St. is around #15 when they play them and UCLA unranked, then no.

Cinci would only get in in something like this:

SEC champ 2 losses
Big 12 champ 2 losses
PAC 12 champ 3 losses
ACC champ 2 losses
Big Ten champ 2 losses

And even then they would be lucky to get in at #4. It’d probably take the full perfect storm where there were multiple ranked teams in the AAC and then I would feel good about their chances and hope like hell they didn’t go one and done or the G5 would absolutely never make it back.

If UC is 13-0 with wins against Ohio State and UCLA, they will at least have to be a legit part of the CFP discussion. Whether they would actually be one of the 4 selected would boil down to the overall W-L records of Ohio State and UCLA, plus the overall strength of the American, plus how many other teams with 0 or 1 loss are being considered at the time.

My hunch is -- in that scenario -- they would *Not* be selected over any SEC/B1G/ACC/B12/PAC team with 0 or 1 loss, except of course for Ohio State and UCLA.

(11-15-2018 11:03 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  That's one of the things that always cracks me up. I've heard a lot of people argue what UCF did last year doesn't mean anything for this year's playoff spot, but at the same time argue on the other side of their mouth that certain schools deserve to be ranked higher because of their legacy. Can't have it both ways guy and if so UCF's record last year is more important than what Washington did 30 years ago because most of the same guys are still there. Steve Emtman and Mark Brunell aren't suiting it up for the Huskies anymore.

To be fair, it's different people saying the two things.

UCF's run last year absolutely helps them this year. A couple of balls bounce a different way last year, it's USF in the Access Bowl instead of UCF, and UCF is even further from the top 10 this year.

(11-15-2018 11:03 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(11-15-2018 10:50 AM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  

(11-15-2018 10:42 AM)CardinalJim Wrote:  God Bless the 4 idealistic souls that voted yes and believe this system is fair.

The reality no team outside The ACC, Big 10, Big 12, PAC or SEC is going to get it. I'm not saying if UCF keeps going undefeated year after year that there won't be some questions, as there should be, about their access to the CFP. The committees will give some BS answers and we'll go back to the same group of teams.

I say that because even in the conferences that are eligible there are subsets. I will use the ACC for example. An undefeated ACC will get in but only Clemson or FSU gets in with 1 loss. Anyone else in the conference would have zero shot of getting in with 1 loss. I will go as far as to say if all 5 conferences had an undefeated champion, and the ACC's champion wasn't Clemson or FSU, they better hope The Big 12's undefeated champion isn't Oklahoma or Texas or The PAC's isn't USC.

The short answer is no UC won't get it.
CJ

Jim nails it pretty good here. However relative to the PAC there is plenty of history with Washington and UCLA. What a Don James Huskie team did 30 years ago in a Rose Bowl matters today.

That's one of the things that always cracks me up. I've heard a lot of people argue what UCF did last year doesn't mean anything for this year's playoff spot, but at the same time argue on the other side of their mouth that certain schools deserve to be ranked higher because of their legacy. Can't have it both ways guy and if so UCF's record last year is more important than what Washington did 30 years ago because most of the same guys are still there. Steve Emtman and Mark Brunell aren't suiting it up for the Huskies anymore.

What you did the prior year is irrelevant to what you "deserve" this year.

But getting on the radar in the prior year makes pollsters look at you in the current year. Pollsters like to confirm their previous opinions. It takes a lot for an unranked team to move up.

(11-14-2018 04:50 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  Yes.

In 2009, TCU would have been in a 4-team playoff, even though there were 3 undefeated power conference champions.

TCU beat 3-9 Virginia, 8-5 Clemson, 7-5 SMU (C-USA), FCS Texas State, and 2 ranked teams in-conference (Utah and BYU).

#5 was 12-1 Florida. As good as they were, Florida only beat 1 ranked team during the regular season.

10-2 Ohio State, 10-2 Oregon, and 8-5 Clemson won their conferences but would have been left out. Even if Georgia Tech had beaten Clemson in the ACC title game, they would have been 10-2.

That's with the human polls and computers, both of which are more forgiving to G5 teams than the committee. That TCU team probably would have been #10 in the CFP rankings in 2009.

I don't buy into the nonsense that no G5 team will ever be allowed into the CFP or that the CFP is somehow rigged. In fact, I believe the selection committee would love to have a G5 team with a resume that justifies including them for a reason other than affirmative action.

I believe that some of the committee's picks in the first four seasons were made at least partially to demonstrate that there are no hard and fast rules. We have seen two teams from the same conference, non-champions picked over P5 champs, etc.

The committee's problem is that they have no control over schedules, and that puts G5 teams at a disadvantage. So it will always be hard for a G5 team to qualify. Hard, but not impossible, to quote a line from Godfather II.

The CFP isn't for the G5. All those who think otherwise are just naive. There are only about 20 teams that will ever play in the CFP in it's current form. Those teams are Alabama, Georgia, Auburn, Florida, LSU, Tennessee, FSU, Clemson, Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, VT, Notre Dame, Michigan, Michigan State, Penn State, Ohio State, Washington, Stanford, Oregon.

Anyone else is just kidding themselves.

(11-16-2018 10:49 AM)NothingButKnight Wrote:  That's with the human polls and computers, both of which are more forgiving to G5 teams than the committee. That TCU team probably would have been #10 in the CFP rankings in 2009.

Yep. Mostly the computers. The computer rankings tend to exalt W-L record over all else. Basically, the divide is that computers say, "They're undefeated! That's what matters!", while sportswriters and committee members say, "So what, look at who they played."

Also, for that TCU team specifically, they had several excellent seasons before that 2010 season in which they won the Rose Bowl, and that helped them to overcome sportswriter skepticism about their schedule. TCU was 11-1, 11-2, 8-5, 11-2, and 12-1 in the five previous seasons (2005-2009).

Same was true for 1984 BYU -- in the five seasons before that, 1979-1983, BYU was 11-1, 12-1, 11-2, 8-4, and 11-1.

(11-16-2018 10:49 AM)NothingButKnight Wrote:  

(11-14-2018 04:50 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  Yes.

In 2009, TCU would have been in a 4-team playoff, even though there were 3 undefeated power conference champions.

TCU beat 3-9 Virginia, 8-5 Clemson, 7-5 SMU (C-USA), FCS Texas State, and 2 ranked teams in-conference (Utah and BYU).

#5 was 12-1 Florida. As good as they were, Florida only beat 1 ranked team during the regular season.

10-2 Ohio State, 10-2 Oregon, and 8-5 Clemson won their conferences but would have been left out. Even if Georgia Tech had beaten Clemson in the ACC title game, they would have been 10-2.

That's with the human polls and computers, both of which are more forgiving to G5 teams than the committee. That TCU team probably would have been #10 in the CFP rankings in 2009.

True.

(11-16-2018 11:30 AM)TrueBlueDrew Wrote:  The CFP isn't for the G5. All those who think otherwise are just naive. There are only about 20 teams that will ever play in the CFP in it's current form. Those teams are Alabama, Georgia, Auburn, Florida, LSU, Tennessee, FSU, Clemson, Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, VT, Notre Dame, Michigan, Michigan State, Penn State, Ohio State, Washington, Stanford, Oregon.

Anyone else is just kidding themselves.

Any p5 program that has zero to 1 loss and maybe a 2 loss team that wins their CCG.
Could be Arizona State, Wisconsin, Okie State, WVU, NC State etc.

(11-14-2018 05:31 PM)HHOOTter Wrote:  As of right now,
No G5 school will ever get a "bid" in the 4 team CFP
This yr,
UCF could have a NCAA best 24 win streak on the line
& still will have no shot @ a CFP bid

But.....
The 3 Iconic Military Schools
(Long History, patriotic, nat'l interest)
might have the best G5 chance to get a CFP bid
If they "ran" the table

Navy 2019 FBS Schedule
Home: Air Force, SMU, USF
Away @ Notre Dame, Memphis, & Houston

Maybe Annapolis, since they play ND every year, but the other two (especially an Army team whose schedule is not much better than a high end FCS school) wouldn't have a prayer in the current system.