Teams with 1st loss Week 12:
None

Teams with 2nd Loss Week 12:
Buffalo
UAB
West Virginia
Cincinnati

Percent of Undefeated Teams with 1st Loss
Week 0/1: 36.92% (48/130)
Week 2: 34.15% (28/82)
Week 3: 37.04% (20/54)
Week 4: 38.34% (13/34)
Week 5: 33.33% (7 of 21)
Week 6: 21.43% (3 of 14)
Week 7: 27.27% (3 of 11)
Week 8: 37.50% (3 of 8)
Week 9: 20% (1 of 5)
Week 10: 0% (0 of 4)
Week 11: 0% (0 of 4)
Week 12: 0% (0 of 4)

Maximum possible Undefeated Teams at End of the Regular Season:
4: Notre Dame, UCF, Clemson, Alabama

Week 12 Thoughts:
-After having a consistent rate of losing undefeated teams for most of the season, we have now gone 3 weeks in a row without losing one. Favorite though all of them may be the rest of the way, odds are we still lose one before bowl season.

-In a week that looked like it could be a bit of a down week before the big games next week, we had some excitement this week for sure. West Virginia losing a tight one with Oklahoma State, means it is probably Oklahoma or bust for the Big 12. Ohio State survived a close one to continue holding onto at least their Big Ten destiny. Going into the conference championship games the week after next (after Ohio State/Michigan this week), we will have, at most, 1 undefeated or 1-loss team from every power 5 conference save the SEC which can maintain 2.

If our pattern so far holds of having only 0 or 1 loss teams from the power 5 conferences in the playoff bowls, and if we count Notre Dame in as well, then only our remaining possibilities are Alabama/Georgia (could be both if Georgia wins out), Ohio State/Michigan (one must lose this week), Washington State, Clemson, Oklahoma, and Notre Dame. If we are going to break our current pattern, we probably need Alabama to beat Georgia and then 3 of the following to happen: Ohio State/Michigan winner lose to Northwestern, Washington State lose to Washington or vs. Utah, Clemson to lose to both South Carolina and Pitt, Oklahoma to lose to West Virginia or in Big 12 title game, Notre Dame lose to Southern Cal.

If we do somehow get 3 of those to happen (2 of them are actually probably likely), that is what opens the door to a 2-loss team and/or UCF.

-Our Group of 5 race is narrowing down now. Buffalo and UAB lost, eliminating the last 1-loss teams from the MAC and Conference USA. UCF performed very well on national TV giving them the American east division. Utah State survived to keep them in decent shape. As I see it, this is how the race goes for that spot.
UCF (undefeated): They are in the American championship and I think are favorite to win this with a conference championship even if get their 1st loss next week vs. South Florida.
Utah State (1-loss): If the team from the west wins the American, Utah State is in if they win out. Utah State might get in over UCF if they lose this week but lean against that.
Boise State (2-losses): If they win the Mountain West, it means beating Utah State first, they are in over everyone except UCF then.
Fresno State (2-losses), Houston (3-losses): If these 2 win the Mountain West and American, there would be debate, but I think Fresno State would get nod as long as they beat an overmatched San Jose this week too. If Memphis wins the American, Fresno State would get in over the Tigers due to the 4 Memphis loses.
Everyone else: I think you need a 3-loss Fresno State to win the Mountain West (losing this week to a very bad San Jose State team) and a 4-loss Memphis to win the American.

Week 13 Thoughts:
-We have 1 game between teams on our lists this week with 1-loss Michigan @ Ohio State. The Wolverines come into Columbus as slight favorites and the winner is going to the Big Ten Championship Game. Both are still alive for the playoff bowls, but Ohio State probably needs bit more help than the Wolverines in that (Oklahoma probably needs to lose for Ohio State, but not Michigan).

-Our undefeated teams play in the following: Undefeated Central Florida at South Florida, Auburn @ undefeated Alabama, South Carolina @ undefeated Clemson, and undefeated Notre Dame @ Southern Cal

Notre Dame @ Southern Cal: Win this one and the Irish are in. USC has looked like a mess, but this is a rivalry game, it is at home, and they still have talent.

UCF @ South Florida: Central Florida is going to host the American Championship regardless and will be most likely to get the NY6 bid even with a loss. That said, dominate here, get chaos, and there is a slight chance there could be enough chaos to get them in the Orange/Cotton. First time all year I have even really been even willing to consider that, but at least a chance. South Florida for its part needs to play like the first half vs. Temple last week and not the 2nd.

South Carolina @ Clemson: I’ve debated to myself whether Clemson needs to win this for their playoff hopes or not and am leaning to no. A 1-loss Clemson with the ACC title would probably be in (probably).

Auburn @ Alabama: This is the game last year that set-up a lot. It set-up getting in 2 SEC teams by leaving a 1-loss Alabama out of the SEC Championship. It pushed up Auburn enough to get them into the Peach Bowl to play UCF. This year not likely nearly the consequences. Alabama will still be in the SEC Championship with a loss. The one thing Auburn winning here would do though would likely mean both sides would need to win the SEC Championship Game to get in eliminating 2 SEC teams being in.


-Our other 1-loss teams play in the following: 1-loss Oklahoma @ West Virginia, Washington @ 1-loss Washington State, Georgia Tech @ 1-loss Georgia, 1-loss Utah State @ Boise State

Oklahoma @ West Virginia: The line is even on this game. Winner goes to the Big 12 Championship likely vs. Texas, loser is most likely done (if Texas loses to Kansas, Oklahoma still in). Oklahoma just outside of controlling destiny for playoff bowls and could really use a defensive performance. That said, they win next 2, most likely enough else happens to put them in.

Washington @ Washington State: Winner is the PAC-12 Championship vs. Utah. Washington State is alive for playoff hunt but needs lot of help. Most likely, winner here will be favorite to be going to the Rose Bowl.

Utah State @ Boise State: Winner going to the Mountain West Championship. Both sides are in contention NY6 bid, but probably need Memphis/Houston to American.

Georgia Tech @ Georgia: If Georgia loses this game, would create an interesting scenario next week. Could a 2-loss Georgia with an SEC Championship and a win over Alabama get in the Orange/Cotton? That said, Georgia is heavy favorite here.

Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 1, American: 1, SEC: 1, independents: 1, total: 4
Clemson
Central Florida
Alabama
Notre Dame

1-Loss Teams: ACC: 0, American: 0, Big 12: 1, Big Ten: 2, Conference USA: 0, MAC: 0, Mountain West: 1, PAC-12: 1, SEC: 1, independents: 0, total: 6
Michigan
Utah State
Washington State
Oklahoma
Georgia
Ohio State