(01-15-2019 08:09 AM)Billy Bob Bearcat Wrote: (01-15-2019 01:33 AM)Kittonhead Wrote: Where is the at-large cut off line, based on the numbers?
Conferences with a Top 68 team (using todays NET)
1) Virginia (1)
2) Michigan (3)
3) Texas Tech (4)
4) Tennessee (5)
5) Gonzaga (6)
6) Houston (8)
7) Buffalo (14)
8) Marquette (19)
9) Nevada (27)
10) Wofford (32)
11) Washington (38)
12) Murray St (42)
13) Liberty (45)
14) VCU (52)
15) Hofstra (56)
16) North Texas (57)
Then out of 68 bids, 16 would presumably go to conference champions in the Top 68. The other 16 would go to mid major champs outside of the Top 68. This leaves 36 at large bids.
This puts the natural cut line for an at-large bid right around #49. If you figure the last 4 in on either side of that line then #45 is about the line.
From outside the P5 this is who is in range for an at-large:
29) Villanova
33) UCF
25) Cincinnati
37) St. John's
39) Seton Hall
41) Utah St.
43) San Francisco
44) Temple
That isn't a whole lot of at-large bids outside of the P5. However one on the advantages of NET is its more possible to offset a weaker overall conference if you can dominate it.
By your estimate regarding the at-large non-P5 bids, it is 3 Big East and 3 AAC.
So essentially only 2 at-large bids that come outside of the High Major conferences. Not sure if that really helps the argument that Net is better at offsetting a weaker conference.
What to me helps the argument is the number of mid majors in that Top 68, including some from traditional sub 100 conferences.
1)Gonzaga (6)
2)Buffalo (14)
3)Nevada (27)
4)Wofford (32)
5)Utah St. (41)
6)Murray St (42)
7)San Francisco (43)
8)Liberty (45)
9)Libscomb (47)
10)VCU (52)
11)St. Mary's (53)
12)Hofstra (56)
13)North Texas (57)
14)Saint Louis (61)
15)ETSU (62)
16)Furman (64)
17)UNC Greensboro (66)
18)Davidson (67)
19)Fresno (68)
They have 19 out of the Top 68 NET rankings.
Now the cutline I said is #45 for at-large and I the total non-P5 bids will stay about the same with 8 but its much more possible to sustain an at-large type rating from a mid major regardless of the overall conference strength as you see with Liberty so high up there out of the ASun.
RPI of the same group of 19
1)Nevada (8)-better
2)Buffalo (10)-better
3)Gonzaga (12)
4)VCU (30)-better
5)Davidson (37)-better
6)Wofford (49)
7)UNC Greensboro (51)-better
8)Utah St. (54)
9)North Texas (55)-better
10)Saint Louis (61)
11)Libscomb (63)
12)ETSU (66)
13)Furman (67)
14)Hofstra (71)
15)Fresno (80)
16)San Francisco (81)
17)Murray St (93)
18)St. Mary's (110)
19)Liberty (120)
Of that same group, only 6 look better in the RPI ratings vs. NET and only 13 would be Top 68.
The A10 takes a significant hit in the NET because they knew how to game the RPI ratings to their advantage.
The AAC doesn't have the same type of drop off NET vs. RPI
NET
8 Houston
33 UCF
35 Cincinnati
44 Temple
RPI
11 Houston
15 Temple
34 UCF
36 Cincinnati
Except for Temple which leads me to conclude there's been massive overrating going on for the Philly 5 by virtue of their scheduling all these years.