So i was looking at the ESPN FPI numbers for this weekend
Alabama- 64% chance of winning
Clemson- 95.6% chance of winning
Oklahoma- 72.8% chance of winning
Ohio St- 83.9% chance of winning

so I come up with a few scenarios...
Oklahoma/Ohio St both win- 61.1% chance of happening. Would be controversial no matter how Alabama does.
Texas/Ohio St/Georgia all win- 8.2% chance of happening.
Oklahoma/Northwestern/Georgia all win- 4.2% chance of happening
Texas/Northwestern/Alabama all win- 2.8% chance of happening
All 4 of these would produce scenarios that would be contrversial for committee..... You add them up and we're at 76.3% chance of controversy. Might have something more with Clemson in there losing that would add to the controversy....

If Texas, Northwestern, and Alabama won it would be extremely interesting to see who gets that 4th spot.

It kind of has to be UCF, right? Hard to imagine putting a 3 loss Texas team with a loss to an average Maryland team (at home) in over them.

(11-27-2018 04:44 PM)Gamecock Wrote:  If Texas, Northwestern, and Alabama won it would be extremely interesting to see who gets that 4th spot.

It kind of has to be UCF, right? Hard to imagine putting a 3 loss Texas team with a loss to an average Maryland team (at home) in over them.

No but a 2 loss Georgia, Ohio State or Oklahoma would fit the bill.

(11-27-2018 04:49 PM)ChrisLords Wrote:  

(11-27-2018 04:44 PM)Gamecock Wrote:  If Texas, Northwestern, and Alabama won it would be extremely interesting to see who gets that 4th spot.

It kind of has to be UCF, right? Hard to imagine putting a 3 loss Texas team with a loss to an average Maryland team (at home) in over them.

No but a 2 loss Georgia, Ohio State or Oklahoma would fit the bill.

Yes, that' who it would come down to.

UCF would be held in stark relief for again not playing anyone while those teams have major games to play.

I think if Milton hadn't gotten hurt, UCF would have gotten in that scenario....

But with him out, I just don't see it at all....

(11-27-2018 04:44 PM)Gamecock Wrote:  If Texas, Northwestern, and Alabama won it would be extremely interesting to see who gets that 4th spot.

The committee would give it to Georgia, unless they are blown out by the Tide. (Maybe "swept away by the Tide" would be a more appropriate metaphor. Ha.)

Texas beats Oklahoma in RRR and is currently ranked #9 in AP/Coaches (was #14 in CFP last week) but only has a 27.2% chance of winning the XII title? Who came up with that? Were they high? I fully expect Oklahoma to win, and I wouldn't be surprised if it was by a significant amount, but that seems a little preposterous. But let's say the unexpected happens: Georgia, Pittsburgh, Northwestern, and Texas all win, who's in? (also assuming that the committee doesn't believe Central Florida is worthy even if they're undefeated)

In that scenario: Notre Dame, Georgia, and Alabama are safe. I think Texas gets the nod for #4. I also don't think they pit the SEC schools against each other in the semi-finals. I think we'd see something like this:

1. Georgia ("1-loss SEC champion who beat Alabama")
2. Notre Dame ("didn't have a 13th data point")
3. Alabama ("only loss was to Georgia in the SEC CCG")
4. Texas ("Texas")

Going further with this scenario:

CFP
Orange Bowl: #1 Georgia vs. #4 Texas
Cotton Bowl: #2 Notre Dame vs. #3 Alabama
NY6
Rose Bowl: Washington (will probably beat Utah) vs. Northwestern
Sugar Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Florida
Fiesta Bowl: Michigan vs. Central Florida
Peach Bowl: Ohio St vs. Clemson

???

Edit: Clemson in instead of Washington St; switch Peach / Fiesta

(11-27-2018 05:10 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  In that scenario: Notre Dame, Georgia, and Alabama are safe. I think Texas gets the nod for #4. I also don't think they pit the SEC schools against each other in the semi-finals. I think we'd see something like this:

1. Georgia ("1-loss SEC champion who beat Alabama")
2. Notre Dame ("didn't have a 13th data point")
3. Alabama ("only loss was to Georgia in the SEC CCG")
4. Texas ("Texas")

Going further with this scenario:

CFP
Orange Bowl: #1 Georgia vs. #4 Texas
Cotton Bowl: #2 Notre Dame vs. #3 Alabama
NY6
Rose Bowl: Washington (will probably beat Utah) vs. Northwestern
Sugar Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Florida
Peach Bowl: Michigan vs. Central Florida
Fiesta Bowl: Ohio St vs. Washington St

I think you forget something.

(11-27-2018 05:16 PM)ArQ Wrote:  

(11-27-2018 05:10 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  In that scenario: Notre Dame, Georgia, and Alabama are safe. I think Texas gets the nod for #4. I also don't think they pit the SEC schools against each other in the semi-finals. I think we'd see something like this:

1. Georgia ("1-loss SEC champion who beat Alabama")
2. Notre Dame ("didn't have a 13th data point")
3. Alabama ("only loss was to Georgia in the SEC CCG")
4. Texas ("Texas")

Going further with this scenario:

CFP
Orange Bowl: #1 Georgia vs. #4 Texas
Cotton Bowl: #2 Notre Dame vs. #3 Alabama
NY6
Rose Bowl: Washington (will probably beat Utah) vs. Northwestern
Sugar Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Florida
Peach Bowl: Michigan vs. Central Florida
Fiesta Bowl: Ohio St vs. Washington St

I think you forget something.

You blew out Clemson by 30+ points in this scenario.

(11-27-2018 05:28 PM)TampaTom Wrote:  

(11-27-2018 05:16 PM)ArQ Wrote:  

(11-27-2018 05:10 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  In that scenario: Notre Dame, Georgia, and Alabama are safe. I think Texas gets the nod for #4. I also don't think they pit the SEC schools against each other in the semi-finals. I think we'd see something like this:

1. Georgia ("1-loss SEC champion who beat Alabama")
2. Notre Dame ("didn't have a 13th data point")
3. Alabama ("only loss was to Georgia in the SEC CCG")
4. Texas ("Texas")

Going further with this scenario:

CFP
Orange Bowl: #1 Georgia vs. #4 Texas
Cotton Bowl: #2 Notre Dame vs. #3 Alabama
NY6
Rose Bowl: Washington (will probably beat Utah) vs. Northwestern
Sugar Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Florida
Peach Bowl: Michigan vs. Central Florida
Fiesta Bowl: Ohio St vs. Washington St

I think you forget something.

You blew out Clemson by 30+ points in this scenario.

I edited the original lol good catch.

I do think a one loss Clemson who lost to Pittsburgh in the conference championship does not get in

(11-27-2018 05:35 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  I do think a one loss Clemson who lost to Pittsburgh in the conference championship does not get in

In that scenario? They absolutely would get in....

(11-27-2018 05:10 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  Texas beats Oklahoma in RRR and is currently ranked #9 in AP/Coaches (was #14 in CFP last week) but only has a 27.2% chance of winning the XII title? Who came up with that? Were they high? I fully expect Oklahoma to win, and I wouldn't be surprised if it was by a significant amount, but that seems a little preposterous. But let's say the unexpected happens: Georgia, Pittsburgh, Northwestern, and Texas all win, who's in? (also assuming that the committee doesn't believe Central Florida is worthy even if they're undefeated)

In that scenario: Notre Dame, Georgia, and Alabama are safe. I think Texas gets the nod for #4. I also don't think they pit the SEC schools against each other in the semi-finals. I think we'd see something like this:

1. Georgia ("1-loss SEC champion who beat Alabama")
2. Notre Dame ("didn't have a 13th data point")
3. Alabama ("only loss was to Georgia in the SEC CCG")
4. Texas ("Texas")

Going further with this scenario:

CFP
Orange Bowl: #1 Georgia vs. #4 Texas
Cotton Bowl: #2 Notre Dame vs. #3 Alabama
NY6
Rose Bowl: Washington (will probably beat Utah) vs. Northwestern
Sugar Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Florida
Fiesta Bowl: Michigan vs. Central Florida
Peach Bowl: Ohio St vs. Clemson

???

Edit: Clemson in instead of Washington St; switch Peach / Fiesta

You still forgot Pitt. Pitt won the ACC CCG.

(11-27-2018 05:58 PM)goofus Wrote:  

(11-27-2018 05:10 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  Texas beats Oklahoma in RRR and is currently ranked #9 in AP/Coaches (was #14 in CFP last week) but only has a 27.2% chance of winning the XII title? Who came up with that? Were they high? I fully expect Oklahoma to win, and I wouldn't be surprised if it was by a significant amount, but that seems a little preposterous. But let's say the unexpected happens: Georgia, Pittsburgh, Northwestern, and Texas all win, who's in? (also assuming that the committee doesn't believe Central Florida is worthy even if they're undefeated)

In that scenario: Notre Dame, Georgia, and Alabama are safe. I think Texas gets the nod for #4. I also don't think they pit the SEC schools against each other in the semi-finals. I think we'd see something like this:

1. Georgia ("1-loss SEC champion who beat Alabama")
2. Notre Dame ("didn't have a 13th data point")
3. Alabama ("only loss was to Georgia in the SEC CCG")
4. Texas ("Texas")

Going further with this scenario:

CFP
Orange Bowl: #1 Georgia vs. #4 Texas
Cotton Bowl: #2 Notre Dame vs. #3 Alabama
NY6
Rose Bowl: Washington (will probably beat Utah) vs. Northwestern
Sugar Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Florida
Fiesta Bowl: Michigan vs. Central Florida
Peach Bowl: Ohio St vs. Clemson

???

Edit: Clemson in instead of Washington St; switch Peach / Fiesta

You still forgot Pitt. Pitt won the ACC CCG.

I quit

(11-27-2018 05:38 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-27-2018 05:35 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  I do think a one loss Clemson who lost to Pittsburgh in the conference championship does not get in

In that scenario? They absolutely would get in....

In all fairness, I was in my car at a redlight using talk-to-type and didn’t want to take the time to backtrack. But I agree. I royally messed up and this board is unforgiving lol

Here’s my final output now that I’m home:

Orange:#1 Georgia vs #4 Clemson
Cotton: #2 Notre Dame vs #3 Alabama

Rose: Washington vs Northwestern
Sugar: Texas vs Florida
Peach: Ohio St vs Oklahoma
Fiesta: Central Florida vs Pittsburgh

As long as the Suckeyes are out, I am good.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

(11-27-2018 06:39 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  

(11-27-2018 05:38 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-27-2018 05:35 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  I do think a one loss Clemson who lost to Pittsburgh in the conference championship does not get in

In that scenario? They absolutely would get in....

In all fairness, I was in my car at a redlight using talk-to-type and didn’t want to take the time to backtrack. But I agree. I royally messed up and this board is unforgiving lol

Here’s my final output now that I’m home:

Orange:#1 Georgia vs #4 Clemson
Cotton: #2 Notre Dame vs #3 Alabama

Rose: Washington vs Northwestern
Sugar: Texas vs Florida
Peach: Ohio St vs Oklahoma
Fiesta: Central Florida vs Pittsburgh

1 small thing- Michigan especially could pass Ohio St/Oklahoma given they're ranked #7 right now..... So that would get them a spot in there against whichever of Ohio St/Oklahoma is higher.

Far more interesting, IMHO:

Pitt beats Clemson, Clemson is 12-1
Georgia beats Bama, both UGA and Bama are 12-1
OU beats Texas, OU is 12-1
OSU beats Northwestern, OSU is 12-1.
Notre Dame doesn’t deign to play, is 12-0.

Who gets left out?

Based on the current rankings, Bama drops from 1st to 4th, ND moves from 3rd to 1st, Georgia from 4th to second, OU from fifth to 3rd. Clemson and OSU cannot overcome losses to teams that lost to 2-9 UNC or which have six losses, respectively, in the committee’s eyes. We get a rematch of last year’s Rose Bowl and of the 2012 BCS Title Game in the semis, with the same results, and then, for good measure, a rematch of last year’s title game. Buckeyes are left out and face Utah/U-Dub winner in the Rose Bowl, Clemson has to play UCF in the Fiesta Bowl since the ACC champs are Peach-bound Pitt.

I was playing around with the 538 numbers:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/201...id=rrpromo

Basically if I'm on the committee, I want Alabama to win and one and only one of Ohio State, Oklahoma and Clemson to lose. Any of those combos results in 4 teams with >94% chance. Alabama losing and one and only 1 of those three losing isn't so bad for the committee- that results in 4 teams with >80% chance and only one team (alabama) with around a 20% chance, so really not too ambiguous.

All other combos results in probabilities of 2 or more teams are near each other for the last spot (i.e., chaos).

(11-28-2018 01:05 AM)CarlSmithCenter Wrote:  Far more interesting, IMHO:

Pitt beats Clemson, Clemson is 12-1
Georgia beats Bama, both UGA and Bama are 12-1
OU beats Texas, OU is 12-1
OSU beats Northwestern, OSU is 12-1.
Notre Dame doesn’t deign to play, is 12-0.

Who gets left out?

Based on the current rankings, Bama drops from 1st to 4th, ND moves from 3rd to 1st, Georgia from 4th to second, OU from fifth to 3rd. Clemson and OSU cannot overcome losses to teams that lost to 2-9 UNC or which have six losses, respectively, in the committee’s eyes. We get a rematch of last year’s Rose Bowl and of the 2012 BCS Title Game in the semis, with the same results, and then, for good measure, a rematch of last year’s title game. Buckeyes are left out and face Utah/U-Dub winner in the Rose Bowl, Clemson has to play UCF in the Fiesta Bowl since the ACC champs are Peach-bound Pitt.

For your scenario, 538 the probabilities are:

Georgia >99%
ND 91%
OU 90%
OSU 82%
Alabama 29%

I wonder if their formula may be overemphasizing conference championships.