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Clay Travis Asks: What is an 8 team playoff worth? Can ESPN afford it? Who else?
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Wedge Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Clay Travis Asks: What is an 8 team playoff worth? Can ESPN afford it? Who else?
(12-20-2018 08:07 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  And if I recall correctly, the first round of the NCAA tournament attracts more viewers than any other round.

No. The national championship game gets the most viewers, followed by the Saturday final four games. The national championship game (when it's on CBS, not TBS) gets twice as many viewers as all four games combined in even the most-watched (prime time) first round window. Look on Sports Media Watch, you can use the keyword "March Madness".

And again, CFB playoff games would go up against NFL games, unless they play the first round on NYD and/or the last Saturday of the NFL regular season (because the NFL plays all of its week 17 games on Sunday). Most of us here are not really NFL fans, but that's not true of the typical football watcher. A large number of football fans would choose an NFL regular season game, many don't follow CFB closely, and that would limit the audience of CFB playoff games played at the same time.
12-20-2018 09:07 PM
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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Post: #22
RE: Clay Travis Asks: What is an 8 team playoff worth? Can ESPN afford it? Who else?
Granted the total playoff would be just 7 games but it would generate a whole cottage industry of college football brackets. Fans will have a rooting interest beyond their own local favorite. Lots of folks will be anxious for that year when the G5 8 Seed upsets the favorite.

There is tons of value in that opening round that can be capitalized upon.
12-20-2018 09:10 PM
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #23
RE: Clay Travis Asks: What is an 8 team playoff worth? Can ESPN afford it? Who else?
(12-20-2018 09:07 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(12-20-2018 08:07 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  And if I recall correctly, the first round of the NCAA tournament attracts more viewers than any other round.

No. The national championship game gets the most viewers, followed by the Saturday final four games. The national championship game (when it's on CBS, not TBS) gets twice as many viewers as all four games combined in even the most-watched (prime time) first round window. Look on Sports Media Watch, you can use the keyword "March Madness".

And again, CFB playoff games would go up against NFL games, unless they play the first round on NYD and/or the last Saturday of the NFL regular season (because the NFL plays all of its week 17 games on Sunday). Most of us here are not really NFL fans, but that's not true of the typical football watcher. A large number of football fans would choose an NFL regular season game, many don't follow CFB closely, and that would limit the audience of CFB playoff games played at the same time.

Avg viewership for the first round is 5.6 million per game. So, for 32 games the total first round viewership is 179.2 million people. The final game got 23 million. Its not even close. The per game total is obviously higher as you progress toward the end the finals---but for total viewership the first round wins in a landslide. I suspect we are just talking about different things (per game viewership vs total viewership).

https://www.statista.com/statistics/2515...-per-game/
(This post was last modified: 12-20-2018 09:46 PM by Attackcoog.)
12-20-2018 09:40 PM
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Stugray2 Offline
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Post: #24
RE: Clay Travis Asks: What is an 8 team playoff worth? Can ESPN afford it? Who else?
The only 8 configuration that makes sense is to keep the NY6 as is, but make 4 of them Playoffs instead of 2. The 9th/10th P5 schools get the consolation game, and the 11th P5 gets the G5 access.

This year the 4 teams would have been P12 champ Washington #9, B1G champ Ohio State #5 (both Rose Bowl), Georgia #6 (Sugar) and Michigan #7 (Peach). Since Florida #10 and LSU #11 are in the same conference, LSU as the lower ranked would get the G5 "access" bowl against UCF #7. Florida would be matched up with one of Penn State #12, Washington State #13 or Texas #15 (Kentucky at #14 is out since they are in the same conference as Florida) depending upon which Bowl (and conference tie-ins) was not among the 4 playoffs.

You have #1 Alabama vs #9 Washington, #2 Clemson vs #7 Michigan, #3 Notre Dame vs #6 Georgia, #4 Oklahoma vs #5 Ohio State

Those are compelling first round match ups. #11 LSU - #7 UCF would still be on, and #10 Florida vs (Texas #15?). All else would be the same (Penn State #12 vs Kentucky #14 the best of the rest). The Semi-finals would be on campus of the highest two seeds, probably Alabama and Clemson, the week after New Years and the CCG a week later.

G5 wont be given real access, although I think last year's UCF was thought of better than this year's team and would have made the 8, while this year's they'd would not have. I generally agree, the P5 will not give G5 and automatic access, too much money at stake to have a Western Michigan, Fresno State or Louisiana in the playoff. A couple of those Peterson Boise State teams and maybe last year's UCF I could see. But most year's the G5 leader is not near that good.

The only TV additions would be the on-campus semi-finals. How valuable would (if seeds hold) Alabama vs tOSU/OU and Clemson vs ND/UGa games be? I think they'd be huge the first week of January. In this scenario it's only a straight add-on of semi-final games. Nothing else is disturbed. IMO this
12-20-2018 10:23 PM
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Post: #25
RE: Clay Travis Asks: What is an 8 team playoff worth? Can ESPN afford it? Who else?
(12-20-2018 10:23 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  The only 8 configuration that makes sense is to keep the NY6 as is, but make 4 of them Playoffs instead of 2. The 9th/10th P5 schools get the consolation game, and the 11th P5 gets the G5 access.

This year the 4 teams would have been P12 champ Washington #9, B1G champ Ohio State #5 (both Rose Bowl), Georgia #6 (Sugar) and Michigan #7 (Peach). Since Florida #10 and LSU #11 are in the same conference, LSU as the lower ranked would get the G5 "access" bowl against UCF #7. Florida would be matched up with one of Penn State #12, Washington State #13 or Texas #15 (Kentucky at #14 is out since they are in the same conference as Florida) depending upon which Bowl (and conference tie-ins) was not among the 4 playoffs.

You have #1 Alabama vs #9 Washington, #2 Clemson vs #7 Michigan, #3 Notre Dame vs #6 Georgia, #4 Oklahoma vs #5 Ohio State

Those are compelling first round match ups. #11 LSU - #7 UCF would still be on, and #10 Florida vs (Texas #15?). All else would be the same (Penn State #12 vs Kentucky #14 the best of the rest). The Semi-finals would be on campus of the highest two seeds, probably Alabama and Clemson, the week after New Years and the CCG a week later.

G5 wont be given real access, although I think last year's UCF was thought of better than this year's team and would have made the 8, while this year's they'd would not have. I generally agree, the P5 will not give G5 and automatic access, too much money at stake to have a Western Michigan, Fresno State or Louisiana in the playoff. A couple of those Peterson Boise State teams and maybe last year's UCF I could see. But most year's the G5 leader is not near that good.

The only TV additions would be the on-campus semi-finals. How valuable would (if seeds hold) Alabama vs tOSU/OU and Clemson vs ND/UGa games be? I think they'd be huge the first week of January. In this scenario it's only a straight add-on of semi-final games. Nothing else is disturbed. IMO this

I pretty much agree with this except the semi-finals should also be at neutral sites, think pro stadiums that don't hold major bowls like Minnesota, Vegas, LA, Houston, Santa Clara, Detroit, etc. It would be cool if the Final Four site is the same location for two games, like college hoops. I feel like the atmosphere would be nuts, but the logistical problems would be difficult to overcome.

I prefer 8 at-large bids because I like the poll tradition, but it contrasts with conference title games, two competing eras. We (as in I am struggling with this) have to accept P5 CCG's, and the winners should be rewarded for an upset. For example, if Pitt upset Clemson this season they would have won their way in, leaving Clemson to fight for one of three at-large bids. It reinforces the importance of the CCG, something conferences can appreciate.

I am dead set against a G5 auto-bid. That is an at-large restricted to certain teams, and if the best one has two losses...yikes. Maybe there should be a stipulation like if a G5 is ranked in the top 8 they get an invite over a conference champ outside of the top 8, like UCF and Washington this year.
(This post was last modified: 12-20-2018 11:23 PM by esayem.)
12-20-2018 11:22 PM
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Post: #26
RE: Clay Travis Asks: What is an 8 team playoff worth? Can ESPN afford it? Who else?
(12-20-2018 05:47 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  The money is definitely there for all parties to make it work.

You're missing Travis' entire point. He's questioning whether ESPN *does* have another $400-$600M a year to lay out for a new sports property. 85M subscribers and dropping vs 100M and rising, etc.

(I don't mean to single you out, most of the posters on the thread are thinking the same. But you flatout said it, and concisely)
12-21-2018 07:55 AM
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Post: #27
RE: Clay Travis Asks: What is an 8 team playoff worth? Can ESPN afford it? Who else?
(12-21-2018 07:55 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  
(12-20-2018 05:47 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  The money is definitely there for all parties to make it work.

You're missing Travis' entire point. He's questioning whether ESPN *does* have another $400-$600M a year to lay out for a new sports property. 85M subscribers and dropping vs 100M and rising, etc.

(I don't mean to single you out, most of the posters on the thread are thinking the same. But you flatout said it, and concisely)

And that is where Travis is exposing his financial illiteracy. If the advertisers are willing to buy time, ESPN will have no trouble paying the colleges. And the only issue there is finding time slots to work around the NFL. If you move the quarterfinals up into December, you have to work around the NFL's December Saturday regular season games, which also means 4 losers won't be interested in bowl games. If you keep the quarterfinals on NYD, then you have to find time for the semi-finals. Finals will be on a Monday and not present any problem.
12-21-2018 09:57 AM
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Post: #28
RE: Clay Travis Asks: What is an 8 team playoff worth? Can ESPN afford it? Who else?
(12-21-2018 09:57 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(12-21-2018 07:55 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  
(12-20-2018 05:47 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  The money is definitely there for all parties to make it work.

You're missing Travis' entire point. He's questioning whether ESPN *does* have another $400-$600M a year to lay out for a new sports property. 85M subscribers and dropping vs 100M and rising, etc.

(I don't mean to single you out, most of the posters on the thread are thinking the same. But you flatout said it, and concisely)

And that is where Travis is exposing his financial illiteracy. If the advertisers are willing to buy time, ESPN will have no trouble paying the colleges.

Advertising isn't the bulk of ESPN's revenue. Subscriber fees are. Subscriber fees are why these games are on ESPN instead of ABC--if it were just about advertising, the advertisers would prefer OTA.


Quote:And the only issue there is finding time slots to work around the NFL.

No, the issue is that ESPN's money is not unlimited. ESPN may well report back to the conferences that going to 8 would only be a $200M increase, or something.
12-21-2018 10:02 AM
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Post: #29
RE: Clay Travis Asks: What is an 8 team playoff worth? Can ESPN afford it? Who else?
All the ESPN thing is that they're making less money than they used to. It's not going to be enough to stop them from expanding the playoff.

It would be interesting to hear what the rate per subscriber was with 100 million to where it is now at 85 million.

If it's-
5 per month- 100 million subscribers- 500 million per month.
7 per month- 85 million subscribers- 595 million per month.

even if it went up from only 6 per month to 7 per month- that'd be losing 5 million per month. oops.
12-21-2018 10:32 AM
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Post: #30
RE: Clay Travis Asks: What is an 8 team playoff worth? Can ESPN afford it? Who else?
(12-20-2018 10:23 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  The only 8 configuration that makes sense is to keep the NY6 as is, but make 4 of them Playoffs instead of 2. The 9th/10th P5 schools get the consolation game, and the 11th P5 gets the G5 access.

This year the 4 teams would have been P12 champ Washington #9, B1G champ Ohio State #5 (both Rose Bowl), Georgia #6 (Sugar) and Michigan #7 (Peach). Since Florida #10 and LSU #11 are in the same conference, LSU as the lower ranked would get the G5 "access" bowl against UCF #7. Florida would be matched up with one of Penn State #12, Washington State #13 or Texas #15 (Kentucky at #14 is out since they are in the same conference as Florida) depending upon which Bowl (and conference tie-ins) was not among the 4 playoffs.

You have #1 Alabama vs #9 Washington, #2 Clemson vs #7 Michigan, #3 Notre Dame vs #6 Georgia, #4 Oklahoma vs #5 Ohio State

Those are compelling first round match ups. #11 LSU - #7 UCF would still be on, and #10 Florida vs (Texas #15?). All else would be the same (Penn State #12 vs Kentucky #14 the best of the rest). The Semi-finals would be on campus of the highest two seeds, probably Alabama and Clemson, the week after New Years and the CCG a week later.

G5 wont be given real access, although I think last year's UCF was thought of better than this year's team and would have made the 8, while this year's they'd would not have. I generally agree, the P5 will not give G5 and automatic access, too much money at stake to have a Western Michigan, Fresno State or Louisiana in the playoff. A couple of those Peterson Boise State teams and maybe last year's UCF I could see. But most year's the G5 leader is not near that good.

The only TV additions would be the on-campus semi-finals. How valuable would (if seeds hold) Alabama vs tOSU/OU and Clemson vs ND/UGa games be? I think they'd be huge the first week of January. In this scenario it's only a straight add-on of semi-final games. Nothing else is disturbed. IMO this

That would be a great way to trigger a real lawsuit. 10-3 and #9 Washington gets in ahead of 12-0 and #8 UCF because of an affiliation? You would either need to give the top-6 champs (or P5 + 1 G5) or go to the straight top-8 system. #8 UCF would need to get in ahead of #9 Washington or #9 Washington would need to squeeze out #7 non-Champ Michigan.
12-21-2018 12:48 PM
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Post: #31
RE: Clay Travis Asks: What is an 8 team playoff worth? Can ESPN afford it? Who else?
something to watch.... Verizon Fios and Disney's deal runs out at the end of year.. Will be interesting to see if it's renewed(probably will- given some of the channels are Disney and Disney Jr.), and what kind of increase they'll get for it....
12-26-2018 04:11 PM
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