https://www.outkickthecoverage.com/whats...off-worth/

1. Existing deal averages $200M a game. (The non semifinal NY6 bowls are under separate media contracts). Does adding 4 games increase that by $200M a game? Or is the 4-game package worth the same as the 3-game package (later rounds always get higher numbers).

2. ESPN is losing subscribers. Can they afford another $600M or whatever, on top of everything else they're contracted for, and on top of whatever Monday Night Football will cost.

3. Who else is there--OTA? FANG (poor Microsoft and Apple)? DAZN, Travis' new obsession?

(12-20-2018 02:19 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  https://www.outkickthecoverage.com/whats...off-worth/

1. Existing deal averages $200M a game. (The non semifinal NY6 bowls are under separate media contracts). Does adding 4 games increase that by $200M a game? Or is the 4-game package worth the same as the 3-game package (later rounds always get higher numbers).

2. ESPN is losing subscribers. Can they afford another $600M or whatever, on top of everything else they're contracted for, and on top of whatever Monday Night Football will cost.

3. Who else is there--OTA? FANG (poor Microsoft and Apple)? DAZN, Travis' new obsession?

Travis has absolute zero financial sense.

That has been my thought. I don't think quarterfinal games would be worth as much as current NY6 games (non-playoff), much less more. And they need to be worth much more, just to break even (they would likely have to be home games, removing some of the ancillary income bowls get from visiting fans). Plus it will kill most of the value of the NY6 games as they exist now, and make them similar to the next tier level bowls now.

(12-20-2018 02:33 PM)adcorbett Wrote:  That has been my thought. I don't think quarterfinal games would be worth as much as current NY6 games (non-playoff), much less more. And they need to be worth much more, just to break even (they would likely have to be home games, removing some of the ancillary income bowls get from visiting fans). Plus it will kill most of the value of the NY6 games as they exist now, and make them similar to the next tier level bowls now.

You sound like Clay Travis!

They just need to be worth more than the bowl game they replace.

(12-20-2018 02:39 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(12-20-2018 02:33 PM)adcorbett Wrote:  That has been my thought. I don't think quarterfinal games would be worth as much as current NY6 games (non-playoff), much less more. And they need to be worth much more, just to break even (they would likely have to be home games, removing some of the ancillary income bowls get from visiting fans). Plus it will kill most of the value of the NY6 games as they exist now, and make them similar to the next tier level bowls now.

You sound like Clay Travis!

They just need to be worth more than the bowl game they replace....to the people making the decisions.

Just want to be specific--the quarterfinals don't have to be worth more in total value, just in value TO THE P5 schools and conferences (and their G5 junior partners, but I don't expect them to have much say). And value to the TV networks.

The thing is, for Pac 12, Big Ten, and Big 12- having guaranteed access is going to be to quote the Master Card commercial- priceless.

Like I think I heard Dan Wetzel say- each year the Pac 12 misses the playoffs, they fall further and further behind.

1. If the P5 get auto-bids, they can be assured of placing a team into the quarterfinals. Now the semifinals pay $6M per team; let's say the quarterfinals only pay $3M - but that's guaranteed money to the P5s.

2. The P5 conferences also get $55M each guaranteed from the CFP playoff contract; let's say that roughly doubles, to $100M each.

3. Meanwhile, the value of the contract bowls probably goes down slightly, from $40M per conference* to, let's say, about $30M. (* Yes I know the ACC only gets $27.5M under the current arrangement, but I'm guessing that gets renegotiated too; for the sake of argument, let's say all 5 P5 conferences get $30M to play in a non-playoff bowl).

The old total was $55M + $40M + either $6M (playoff) or $4M (non-playoff) = $99M to $101M per P5 conference for a total of 6 NY6 bowls + 1 championship game (7 games). $100M/7 games = $14.3M/game.

The new total would be (est.) $100M + $30M + $4M + $6M for 4 teams = $134M to $140M per P5 (better for them) for 4 quarterfinal + 2 semifinal + 1 final + 3 contract bowls = 10 games. $134M/10 = $13.4M/game (better for ESPN).

Not saying this is what the numbers WOULD be, but it's plausible that the P5s would get an extra $34M/year in exchange for giving ESPN 3 more games. I could also see the new contract for 11 games (keep 4 non-playoff NY6 bowls), or I could see zero non-playoff NY6 bowls (stay at 7 games, but more valuable now).

(12-20-2018 02:39 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(12-20-2018 02:33 PM)adcorbett Wrote:  That has been my thought. I don't think quarterfinal games would be worth as much as current NY6 games (non-playoff), much less more. And they need to be worth much more, just to break even (they would likely have to be home games, removing some of the ancillary income bowls get from visiting fans). Plus it will kill most of the value of the NY6 games as they exist now, and make them similar to the next tier level bowls now.

You sound like Clay Travis!

They just need to be worth more than the bowl game they replace.

Less than that actually. They would be replacing in essence two NY6 non CFP bowls, because those bowls would take the knock of the next 4 best teams theoretically. But those bowls would not lose their total value in the process, but rather would be degraded by a % in their appeal.

And since each lower bowl would also suffer a % decline with less appealing candidates ultimately you have to factor in the total of the % of decline all the way down the bowl ladder. The good news is that we have so many crap bowls already that exist on minimum TV funding that the overall loss wouldn't be anywhere near 100 million.

Also, the networks would be guaranteed a national audience for almost 12 hours of the weekend of the first round. Would they be worth the semis or finals kind of money? Probably not. Would they be worth more than what the % of loss would be for the 2 NY6 bowls that would be diminished on a day when football is traditionally watched no matter what? Probably.

The question is whether they would be worth enough more to alter the present system? To get the P5 to agree to do this they would have be worth a significant % more than the payouts of those 2 additional NY6 bowls, which right now payout to each team participating around 5 million which is only 1 million less than the semis.

So calculate your cost for the semis, and ask is the cost of producing 4 quarter round games double the cost of producing 4 semis? And is that cost worth it to ESPN when P5 participants in those NY6 bowls would have earned 5 million each anyway? And then temper that with the likelihood that those same P5 conferences would likely get another school into those NY6 bowls because they got an extra entrant into the playoffs thereby increasing their CFP / NY6 payouts by yet another unit?

I think the money is there for the conferences. So really the only question left is whether or not the production cost plus the extra comparable payouts to the conferences' participants leaves the network enough profit, or is in fact a loser. There's a strong chance that overhead wise it would be a loser because the profits for the semis minus double the production cost and the extra per team payouts may kill that profit.

(12-20-2018 03:14 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  1. If the P5 get auto-bids, they can be assured of placing a team into the quarterfinals. Now the semifinals pay $6M per team; let's say the quarterfinals only pay $3M - but that's guaranteed money to the P5s.

2. The P5 conferences also get $55M each guaranteed from the CFP playoff contract; let's say that roughly doubles, to $100M each.

3. Meanwhile, the value of the contract bowls probably goes down slightly, from $40M per conference* to, let's say, about $30M. (* Yes I know the ACC only gets $27.5M under the current arrangement, but I'm guessing that gets renegotiated too; for the sake of argument, let's say all 5 P5 conferences get $30M to play in a non-playoff bowl).

The old total was $55M + $40M + either $6M (playoff) or $4M (non-playoff) = $99M to $101M per P5 conference for a total of 6 NY6 bowls + 1 championship game (7 games). $100M/7 games = $14.3M/game.

The new total would be (est.) $100M + $30M + $4M + $6M for 4 teams = $134M to $140M per P5 (better for them) for 4 quarterfinal + 2 semifinal + 1 final + 3 contract bowls = 10 games. $134M/10 = $13.4M/game (better for ESPN).

Not saying this is what the numbers WOULD be, but it's plausible that the P5s would get an extra $34M/year in exchange for giving ESPN 3 more games. I could also see the new contract for 11 games (keep 4 non-playoff NY6 bowls), or I could see zero non-playoff NY6 bowls (stay at 7 games, but more valuable now).

The NY6 bowls that would be losing these 4 extra schools to the CFP payout 5 million on average. The quarter finals would have to payout at least that to be attractive. But that is mitigated by having other conference mates step into those bowls at probably a reduced payout at the bowl level, not the CFP level.

(12-20-2018 02:33 PM)adcorbett Wrote:  That has been my thought. I don't think quarterfinal games would be worth as much as current NY6 games (non-playoff), much less more. And they need to be worth much more, just to break even (they would likely have to be home games, removing some of the ancillary income bowls get from visiting fans). Plus it will kill most of the value of the NY6 games as they exist now, and make them similar to the next tier level bowls now.

I think thats a red herring. The reason? Much like the Army-Navy game, a HUGE part of the value of those games rests not on who's playing but WHEN they are played. Its a New Years Day....a national holiday....when people traditionally laze about the house and watch the bowl games. Those games will retain their popularity because the number of games on NYD isnt changing. The other non-CFP bowls being "devalued" doesnt really matter. Besides, they arent really devalued by the playoff. The real reason they are losing thier luster is because there are 50 million bowl games. That said, most of the bowls continue to draw well over a million viewers (often 2-3 million viewers) except for a few junk bowls at the bottom of the grocery sack--are just barely below a million viewers. The real devaluation of bowls has come among the ticket buying public. It might be time for the bowls to re-evaluate their cost structure in light of ticket sales.

I think it adds to the excitement of the NY6 bowls since it keeps the College football train moving down the tracks. I rarely watch the NFL anymore because of the politics and rely on the weedeater bowls to get me through. Right now, we have to dog it out until after Christmas to get into the good bowls. If the weekend after the Army-Navy game was the first round home games for the playoffs, it would give us some meaningful games in mid December. Losers can still be bowl eligible and we could even match up the losers up during the NY6 to get a more accurate end of the year ranking.

A P5 Champ auto-bid won't help finances. If a P5 Championship upset happens, and somehow they don't get in -- most likely the high-ranking loser, or the one who lost out on the Div Championship to the high-ranking loser, would get a spot. And if for some reason that upset nixed the highest-ranked team in that Conf from getting into the Top 8 as an at-large -- they'd be replaced by another P5 most likely. But even if not so, a high-end Cinderella G5 (like Boise) who Would have been nixed out of it barely but didn't, and got in -- is going to bring in Ratings.

From a ratings perspective, a P5 Champ auto-bid is meaningless.

Which is why to even mildly appease the G5 lovers -- you just say ANY Conference Champ will get a Conditional Auto-Bid if they're not in the Top 4 -- if they're ranked somewhere Near the #8 spot. Where Conference Championship edges you out over one who didn't win their reg-season "playoff" to win Their conference. But a MAX on Conference Champs near the #8 spot (12th ranking a cut-off?) -- like 3 of them, in the rare event you have 2 G5s ranked somewhat close to #8 + ND ranked above #8 but not in the Top 4.

If you had a weird situation like '12 where non-ranked Wisconsin won the B1G by upsetting #12 Nebraska, and Wisconsin only playing due to undefeated Ohio State banned that year from post-season play at all -- yes, the B1G Champ wouldn't get in. Nor would then #16 Nebraska, the B1G's highest ranked team. But that was due to Ohio State being banned, really. But let's just say Ohio State SUCKED that year, and the B1G's best team, who didn't even win the conference, was ranked #16. The B1G could not complain in SUCH a RARE off year, where their best team would be an at-large too far out, and their Champ still wasn't even ranked at all.

In a nutshell, there's not going to be P5s against the idea of potentially being short-changed. You don't even need to be #8 to get in, if you win the conference -- just somewhat close to it which they almost Always are.

(12-20-2018 03:14 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  The old total was $55M + $40M + either $6M (playoff) or $4M (non-playoff) = $99M to $101M per P5 conference for a total of 6 NY6 bowls + 1 championship game (7 games). $100M/7 games = $14.3M/game.

The new total would be (est.) $100M + $30M + $4M + $6M for 4 teams = $134M to $140M per P5 (better for them) for 4 quarterfinal + 2 semifinal + 1 final + 3 contract bowls = 10 games. $134M/10 = $13.4M/game (better for ESPN).

Not saying this is what the numbers WOULD be, but it's plausible that the P5s would get an extra $34M/year in exchange for giving ESPN 3 more games.

That's roughly $2-3 million a year for each P5 school. IMO that's not enough to overcome all of the inertia that you have to overcome to make the necessary changes. It's definitely not enough to make changes in the middle of the current CFP deal. I think the net revenue increase would have to be $5 million per P5 school per year, or more.

And that projected $2-3 million per school annual increase doesn't take into account the possible (likely) devaluation of non-playoff bowls. The more teams you add to the playoff, the less valuable each bowl game becomes. If ESPN or whomever is paying for 7 playoff games, they are not going to want to pay the same price for non-playoff bowls that they are paying now. Forget about the $80 million/year they pay for the Rose and Sugar when those bowls are not playoff games. If the TV value of those games is cut in half, that decrease in revenue would be greater than the increase that you project for the expanded playoff.

So as I've said before: We will only see an expanded playoff after ESPN or some other buyer puts enough money on the table to overcome all of the built-in reasons why there has never been a larger playoff.

The money is definitely there for all parties to make it work.

As someone already mentioned, the NY6 games that aren't in the rotation that year for semi-finals are still going to hold much if not nearly all of their value. There is a captive audience that time of year that has the holiday off from work and just because teams 4-8 (roughly) are subbed out for teams 13-16 (roughly). Tons of people still watch Citrus Bowl with big name teams from the Big Ten/SEC/ACC because of the time slot and brands involved and aren't so caught up in the nuances between 10-2 vs 9-3.

You also turn a weekend in December from G5 bowl filler content to big time television for college football fans for ESPN or whoever is airing them. Play 1 vs 8 on Friday night and the other 3 as a triple header on Saturday so there are no overlapping games.

Above all, I think it will make fans happy and more interested in watching the sport because more teams will have a possible chance at a title run and their hopes will stay alive further into the season. Teams will have something tangible to play for.

(12-20-2018 05:47 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  You also turn a weekend in December from G5 bowl filler content to big time television for college football fans for ESPN or whoever is airing them. Play 1 vs 8 on Friday night and the other 3 as a triple header on Saturday so there are no overlapping games.

That's another snag. Let's say you do that on the third weekend in December, where the first weekend of minor bowls lives now. That Saturday has two NFL games. (So does the following Saturday.) It's not going to have the "exclusive" for football fans that New Year's Day has, and those games are not going to draw anywhere near the TV ratings that the CFP semifinals get when they are played on New Year's Day.

(12-20-2018 05:57 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(12-20-2018 05:47 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  You also turn a weekend in December from G5 bowl filler content to big time television for college football fans for ESPN or whoever is airing them. Play 1 vs 8 on Friday night and the other 3 as a triple header on Saturday so there are no overlapping games.

That's another snag. Let's say you do that on the third weekend in December, where the first weekend of minor bowls lives now. That Saturday has two NFL games. (So does the following Saturday.) It's not going to have the "exclusive" for football fans that New Year's Day has, and those games are not going to draw anywhere near the TV ratings that the CFP semifinals get when they are played on New Year's Day.

Army-Navy got 8 million viewers on December 8. That's about the same number of viewers that watched the 2017 New Year's Day Citrus Bowl between Notre Dame and LSU and the 2017 New Year's Day Peach Bowl between UCF and Auburn.

The Celebration Bowl had over 2M viewers on December 15. The Las Vegas Bowl got 3.5M viewers that same day. There would absolutely be a captive audience for CFP quarterfinal games in mid-December.

(12-20-2018 06:19 PM)YNot Wrote:  

(12-20-2018 05:57 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(12-20-2018 05:47 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  You also turn a weekend in December from G5 bowl filler content to big time television for college football fans for ESPN or whoever is airing them. Play 1 vs 8 on Friday night and the other 3 as a triple header on Saturday so there are no overlapping games.

That's another snag. Let's say you do that on the third weekend in December, where the first weekend of minor bowls lives now. That Saturday has two NFL games. (So does the following Saturday.) It's not going to have the "exclusive" for football fans that New Year's Day has, and those games are not going to draw anywhere near the TV ratings that the CFP semifinals get when they are played on New Year's Day.

Army-Navy got 8 million viewers on December 8. That's about the same number of viewers that watched the 2017 New Year's Day Citrus Bowl between Notre Dame and LSU and the 2017 New Year's Day Peach Bowl between UCF and Auburn.

The Celebration Bowl had over 2M viewers on December 15. The Las Vegas Bowl got 3.5M viewers that same day. There would absolutely be a captive audience for CFP quarterfinal games in mid-December.

Sports Media Watch says 3.3 million viewers for the Las Vegas Bowl. One might expect somewhat more for playoff games on that date, but...

... it would still be nowhere near last year's CFP semifinals, which drew 21.5 million and 26.9 million viewers on NYD. The previous year's semifinals, on a Saturday, drew 19.2 and 19.3 million viewers. There's NFW that December 15 quarterfinals, with two of the games playing opposite NFL games, are coming anywhere close to those numbers.

(12-20-2018 06:29 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(12-20-2018 06:19 PM)YNot Wrote:  

(12-20-2018 05:57 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(12-20-2018 05:47 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  You also turn a weekend in December from G5 bowl filler content to big time television for college football fans for ESPN or whoever is airing them. Play 1 vs 8 on Friday night and the other 3 as a triple header on Saturday so there are no overlapping games.

That's another snag. Let's say you do that on the third weekend in December, where the first weekend of minor bowls lives now. That Saturday has two NFL games. (So does the following Saturday.) It's not going to have the "exclusive" for football fans that New Year's Day has, and those games are not going to draw anywhere near the TV ratings that the CFP semifinals get when they are played on New Year's Day.

Army-Navy got 8 million viewers on December 8. That's about the same number of viewers that watched the 2017 New Year's Day Citrus Bowl between Notre Dame and LSU and the 2017 New Year's Day Peach Bowl between UCF and Auburn.

The Celebration Bowl had over 2M viewers on December 15. The Las Vegas Bowl got 3.5M viewers that same day. There would absolutely be a captive audience for CFP quarterfinal games in mid-December.

Sports Media Watch says 3.3 million viewers for the Las Vegas Bowl. One might expect somewhat more for playoff games on that date, but...

... it would still be nowhere near last year's CFP semifinals, which drew 21.5 million and 26.9 million viewers on NYD. The previous year's semifinals, on a Saturday, drew 19.2 and 19.3 million viewers. There's NFW that December 15 quarterfinals, with two of the games playing opposite NFL games, are coming anywhere close to those numbers.

Isn't what the CFP semifinals did or do irrelevant to what the quartefinals could do? (as long as the CFP semifinals continue to perform as well). The quarterfinals don't need to equal the performance of the semifinals; they need to grow the aggregate revenue.

Focusing just on the TV and direct CFP money part of the equation, the CFP quarterfinals would need to generate enough to justify a potential decline in revenue from the current, status-quo NY6 and other P5 bowl structure.

The quarterfinal games would definitely be money makers. They could perform close to, if not better than, the average non-CFP NY6 bowl games. The NY6 bowl games might decline, but they won't go to zero. In fact, as has been argued above, they decline might not be that pronounced given college football's historic TV ratings on New Year's Day.

The aggregate revenue and exposure generated from the expanded CFP and remaining NY6 bowl games would surely grow the revenue pie to share and justify the expansion from a business perspective.

(12-20-2018 06:29 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(12-20-2018 06:19 PM)YNot Wrote:  

(12-20-2018 05:57 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(12-20-2018 05:47 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  You also turn a weekend in December from G5 bowl filler content to big time television for college football fans for ESPN or whoever is airing them. Play 1 vs 8 on Friday night and the other 3 as a triple header on Saturday so there are no overlapping games.

That's another snag. Let's say you do that on the third weekend in December, where the first weekend of minor bowls lives now. That Saturday has two NFL games. (So does the following Saturday.) It's not going to have the "exclusive" for football fans that New Year's Day has, and those games are not going to draw anywhere near the TV ratings that the CFP semifinals get when they are played on New Year's Day.

Army-Navy got 8 million viewers on December 8. That's about the same number of viewers that watched the 2017 New Year's Day Citrus Bowl between Notre Dame and LSU and the 2017 New Year's Day Peach Bowl between UCF and Auburn.

The Celebration Bowl had over 2M viewers on December 15. The Las Vegas Bowl got 3.5M viewers that same day. There would absolutely be a captive audience for CFP quarterfinal games in mid-December.

Sports Media Watch says 3.3 million viewers for the Las Vegas Bowl. One might expect somewhat more for playoff games on that date, but...

... it would still be nowhere near last year's CFP semifinals, which drew 21.5 million and 26.9 million viewers on NYD. The previous year's semifinals, on a Saturday, drew 19.2 and 19.3 million viewers. There's NFW that December 15 quarterfinals, with two of the games playing opposite NFL games, are coming anywhere close to those numbers.

Right. And if I recall correctly, the first round of the NCAA tournament attracts more viewers than any other round. More games, more regions of the country engaged, and---the first week is where the really interesting Cinderella stories begin to develop. These games should attract audiences larger than the CCG's--and be similar to the current CFP semi's. Dont be surprised if the first round is worth almost what the current deal is worth. This would be a HUGE event. It doesnt matter if ESPN doesnt want to pay full price. My guess is several bidders would be interested in stepping up for an event of this magnitude. ESPN would just have to pay up or lose out....but lets say it went for slightly less than the current CFP's 200 million per game. At 150 million a game, thats still an extra 600 million. Thats 4.65 million per FBS team if equally distributed (which it wont be). Each P5 team/conference would do quite well.

(12-20-2018 05:57 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(12-20-2018 05:47 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  You also turn a weekend in December from G5 bowl filler content to big time television for college football fans for ESPN or whoever is airing them. Play 1 vs 8 on Friday night and the other 3 as a triple header on Saturday so there are no overlapping games.

That's another snag. Let's say you do that on the third weekend in December, where the first weekend of minor bowls lives now. That Saturday has two NFL games. (So does the following Saturday.) It's not going to have the "exclusive" for football fans that New Year's Day has, and those games are not going to draw anywhere near the TV ratings that the CFP semifinals get when they are played on New Year's Day.

Figures the greedy NFL would start playing saturday regular season games in December. What are they airing on? Surely a competing network would want the collegiate playoff games. After a couple years of getting killed in the ratings the NFL will back off.