On these boards we often discuss directly or indirectly the relative strength of our programs. In an effort to take an unbiased approach to the debate, I have compiled a Top 25 ranking system that is based purely on winning. My formula is simple. These rankings our based on the summary of every team's record over last 3 seasons, regardless of conference. The highest winning percentages get the higher rankings.

Let me be clear, this is not a ranking of this season's teams. What I am attempting to compile is a snap-shot of of each programs success in recent years, in an effort to identify and rank the best G5 programs. Each program is also assigned a +,-, or =, which identifies if the program is trending up (improved their record over last season), down (lost more game then last season), equal for repeating their record from last season, and an automatic - for posting losing season in the last two seasons (yes, a team made the top 25 even though they have two straight losing seasons).

* Team only has two seasons to average

All winning percentages are rounded up if above .5. In the event that multiple teams tie in winning percentage, here are the tie breakers...

Tie-breakers
1. Better 2018 record
2. Head to head winner
3. Bowl winner
4. P5 wins
5. Higher rated offense

And here are my findings...

Top 25

Rank/Team/Winning%/3 Year Record/Conference
1. - UCF (79%) 31-8 AAC
2. - Troy (79%) 30-8 Sun Belt
3. - Boise St. (78%) 31-9 MWC
4. + App St (77%) 30-9 Sun Belt
5. + Army (74%) 29-10 Ind
6. - S Florida (74%) 28-10 AAC
7. + UAB (70%) 19-8 C-USA *
8. - S Diego St (70%) 28-12 MWC
9. -Memphis (68%) 27-13 AAC
10. - Toledo (68%) 27-13 MAC
11. + WMU (67%) 26-13 MAC
12. = Ohio (65%) 26-14 MAC
13. + Houston (63%) 24-14 AAC
14. + Temple (63%) 25-15 AAC
15. + Arkansas St (61%) 23-15 Sun Belt
16. + LA Tech (60%) 24-16 C-USA
17. + Fresno St (58%) 23-17 MWC
18. + North Texas (58%) 23-17 C-USA
19. + MTSU (58%) 23-17 C-USA
20. - Southern Miss (57%) 21-16 C-USA
21. - Wyoming (56%) 22-17 MWC
22. + FIU (55%) 21-17 C-USA
23. - Air Force (54%) 20-17 MWC
24. = NIU (53%) 21-18 MAC
25. + Utah St (53%) 20-18 MWC

Have fun debating, and please let me know if you find errors in my math.

Here are every G5's 3 year rolling average winning percentage. Teams in bold have .500 record or better.

* denotes teams with only 2 season.
** denotes teams with only one season

C-USA (71% of the conference plays .500 ball or better)

UAB 19-9 (70%) *
LA Tech 24-16 (60%)
North Texas 23-17 (58%)
MTSU 23-17 (58%)
Southern Miss 21-16 (57%)
FIU 21-17 (55%)
Marshall 20-18 (53%)
ODU 19-18 (51%)
WKU 20-19 (51%)
FAU 19-19 (50%)
UTSA 15-21 (42%)
Charlotte 10-26 (28%)
Rice 6-31 (16%)
UTEP 5-31 (13%)

AAC (50% of the conference plays .500 ball or better)

UCF 31-8 (79%)
S Florida 28-10 (74%)
Memphis 27-13 (68%)
Houston 24-14 (63%)
Temple 25-15 (62%)
Cincinnati 19-18 (51%)
Navy 19-21 (48%)
SMU 17-20 (46%)
Tulane 16-21 (43%)
Tulsa 15-22 (40%)
ECU 9-27 (25%)
U-Conn 7-29 (19%)

MWC (50% of the conference plays .500 ball or better)

Boise St 31-9 (78%)
S Diego St 28-12 (70%)
Fresno St 23-17 (58%)
Wyoming 22-17 (56%)
Air Force 20-17 (54%)
Utah St 20-18 (53%)
Hawaii 18-22 (45%)
Colorado St 17-21 (44%)
Nevada 16-21 (43%)
N Mexico 15-22 (41%)
UNLV 13-23 (36%)
S Jose St 4-33 (11%)

MAC (42% of the conference plays .500 ball or better)

Toledo 27-13 (68%)
WMU 26-13 (67%)
Ohio 26-14 (65%)
NIU 21-18 (53%)
EMU 19-19 (50%)
Buffalo 18-20 (47%)
Miami OH 17-20 (46%)
Akron 16-22 (42%)
CMU 15-23 (39%)
Ball St 10-26 (28%)
B Green 9-28 (24%)
Kent St 7-29 (19%)

Sun Belt (30% of the conference plays .500 ball or better)

Troy 30-8 (79%)
App St 30-9 (77%)
Arkansas St 23-15 (61%)
ULL 18-21 (46%)
G Southern 17-20 (46%)
ULM 14-22 (39%)
USA 13-24 (35%)
C Carolina 8-16 (33%) *
G St 12-24 (33%)
Texas St 7-29 (19%)

Independents

Army 29-10 (74%)
BYU 20-19 (51%)
Liberty 6-6 (50%) **
N Mexico St 13-24 (35%)
U-Mass 10-26 (28%)


Let me know if my math is off.

According to your numbers Marshall would be tied for 25th with Utah State. Not bad considering we had one of our worst seasons in years by going 3-9 during that stretch.

Here are the results of top G5 teams in the last 5 years (40 wins or more).

Boise State 52-15
Appalachian State 48-16
Toledo 46-19
Memphis 46-20
Houston 45-20
San Diego State 46-21
Marshall 43-22
La Tech 42-25
UCF 40-23*
South Florida 40-23
Western Michigan 40-23
Temple 41-25
Ohio 40-25
WKU 40-26
NIU 40-27

(12-30-2018 09:29 PM)rileylives Wrote:  Here are the results of top G5 teams in the last 5 years (40 wins or more).

Boise State 52-15
Appalachian State 48-16
Toledo 46-19
Memphis 46-20
Houston 45-20
San Diego State 46-21
Marshall 43-22
La Tech 42-25
UCF 40-23*
South Florida 40-23
Western Michigan 40-23
Temple 41-25
Ohio 40-25
WKU 40-26
NIU 40-27

I like what you are doing here taking the previous 5 seasons as a baseline for measuring relative program strength.

I'd tried it about 8 years ago over on the MAC board and some of the MAC fans were screaming because it didn't make their programs look too hot.

Updated with Cincinnati's bowl win included.

What I found most interesting about the data was how it was able to identify the "heavy hitters" in the G5 (those programs winning 75% of their games or more). And, how it clearly identifies the best teams in each conference and the gap between programs within each conference. I think some of this data goes a long way towards supporting some common beliefs about each conference and the programs within them.

When looking at the total numbers I think the data supports the a simple conference ranking...

1st AAC- By the numbers the AAC is strongest G5 conference, with 5 programs winning over 60% of their games in the three year cycle, and THE #1 "heavy hitter" UCF posting an incredible 81% winning percentage. Plus half of the conference posted winning records during the cycle. 5 AAC programs are ranked in the Top 25.

2nd MWC- Features #3 "Heavy hitter" Boise State and 7th ranked San Diego State. Plus half of the conference posted winning records during the cycle. 6 MWC programs are ranked in the Top 25.

3rd C-USA- Here is where it gets difficult. C-USA features no "Heavy Hitters", but is tied with the MWC for the most ranked programs with 6 in the Top 25. UAB is their highest rated program at #8. C-USA does have a G5 best 71% of their conference playing .500 or better.

4th Sun Belt- The only conference with 2 Top 5 programs in #2 Troy and #4 App State, only feature one other winning program, #15 Arkansas State. Outside of those three, the rest of the Sun Belt, 70% of the conference, has losing records over the three year cycle. The Sun Belt landed the fewest programs in the Top 25, with 3.

5th MAC- The MAC also has no "Heavy Hitters". Toledo is their top rated program at #10. 58% of the conference has losing records over the cycle. The MAC landed 4 programs in the Top 25.

Army is by far the top independent programs and ranks 5th in the poll.

Enjoy. Debate. Complain. I'm open to other opinions.

No debating or complaining, just correcting. Not sure what Top 25 rankings were used, but certain it wasn't CFP or end of year AP/CP rankings. Assuming you used 2016-2018 AP or CP to current (meaning at least one week in either), AAC has 7 out of 12 teams ranked. UH, Navy, USF and Temple appeared in both for 2016. 2017 featured USF, UCF, Navy, and Memphis in both for at least a week, and to date UCF, USF and UC have been listed in both. I may have read it wrong, but think that was your methodology based on the numbers given for other conferences.

(12-31-2018 10:12 PM)gulfcoastgal Wrote:  No debating or complaining, just correcting. Not sure what Top 25 rankings were used, but certain it wasn't CFP or end of year AP/CP rankings. Assuming you used 2016-2018 AP or CP to current (meaning at least one week in either), AAC has 7 out of 12 teams ranked. UH, Navy, USF and Temple appeared in both for 2016. 2017 featured USF, UCF, Navy, and Memphis in both for at least a week, and to date UCF, USF and UC have been listed in both. I may have read it wrong, but think that was your methodology based on the numbers given for other conferences.

The rankings I referred to are a composite of the top winning percentages using a rolling three year cycle. Post #1 lists the 25 highest winning percentages among all G5 programs, or Top 25. Post #2 lists all winning percentages for all 65 G5 programs over the same time span, so you can compare your program against others in your conference and programs in other conferences too. In post #7 I was referring to the fact that the AAC placed 5 programs among the top 25 winningest over the last three season.

There was no reference to the coaches/AP or other poll. I simply looked at wins and losses. I hope that clarified what I intended this thread to represent.

Oh gee, my apologies. We are traveling back home for the holidays and read it in a broader/most publicized T25 rankings...CFP/AP/Coaches (same as P5). Thx for compiling the info...will look at it when time permits.

(12-31-2018 10:34 PM)gulfcoastgal Wrote:  Oh gee, my apologies. We are traveling back home for the holidays and read it in a broader/most publicized T25 rankings...CFP/AP/Coaches (same as P5). Thx for compiling the info...will look at it when time permits.

No problem. Be safe.

Data has been updated to reflect UCF's loss.

San Jose State needs to think long and hard about continuing football