RE: Fun with realignment
I love hypotheticals, but WVU to the BIG would happen under one condition:
1. WVU gets about $10 billion to invest in academic ventures, flips demographics with the state of Virginia, and their academic standing surpasses about 100 major universities that are in front of them. They are one of the lowest, if not the lowest, in academic standing among all of the P5. There is a reason that WVU has never even been mentioned in the wildest concoctions of realignment scenarios even though the are nestled between three existing BIG states. The BIG might take WVU if Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas all agreed to come contingent on WVU coming as well, which is also an alternate universe theory. Off the top of my head in no particular order, Texas, TCU, Oklahoma, Kansas, Colorado, Iowa State, Missouri, Kentucky, Virginia, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Duke, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Georgia Tech, Clemson, Florida State, Miami, Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Auburn, Vanderbilt, and probably even Buffalo would have to say no to the BIG before they would even throw WVU into the pool of expansion candidates. Even then, they would still compete in a pool with Louisville, Cincinnati, and Temple, and Louisville would win out that one as evidenced by their invite to the ACC rather than WVU. Bottom line is that WVU is not going to the BIG in this next phase of realignment. WVU needs generational growth in basically every facet of their institution except on the field/court performance.
Just a quick glance at a map shows that Texas essentially by itself to the BIG makes no logistical sense and would render them without even a whiff of a rival that makes any sense. Even their longest shot at a rival, Nebraska, seems to have left the Big 12 because they were fed up with Texas. If Texas was to move anywhere by themselves, I see the BIG as the least viable option in comparison to the SEC, ACC, or PAC.
The bottom line for Big 12 movement is going to be nothing less than a move by Texas. Even Oklahoma and Kansas can hypothetically leave, and all of the other Big 12 schools would stay with Texas because they would have no better option. Based on recent moves and financial dispositions, Texas and Oklahoma are the only Big 12 schools that any conference would take as standalone schools at this point. Kansas would likely get a stand alone invite from the other P5 conferences, but it may take some convincing. Other than that, none of the other 7 Big 12 schools move the needle enough as an entire package to get a standalone invite to the PAC, SEC, BIG, or ACC.
If we are talking reality (as far as these discussions go), I think below is what could happen to the Big 12 with the understanding that the Big 12 is the 3rd highest revenue conference and this would just be palatable, not desired, by the other conferences:
PAC - TCU, Texas Tech, Texas, Kansas State
BIG - Kansas, Iowa State
SEC - Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, West Virginia, Baylor
Again, no one would be happy about these arrangements, but this is what I could think would happen if the other power conferences were forced to take Big 12 schools. To be honest, Baylor and West Virginia would have difficult times finding landing spots at all, and Texas Tech, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, and TCU would be tagalongs with a package including Texas and/or Oklahoma. I don't mean that disparagingly; it is just what the revenue numbers bear out. TCU has excellent overall revenue numbers and academic chops as an institution, but their economic impact for a regional conference would be low.
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