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OT: using machine learning to rank teams each year 1950 to present (25 year average)
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DavidSt Offline
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Post: #21
RE: OT: using machine learning to rank teams each year 1950 to present (25 year average)
I noticed some programs missing. These are in the MAC conference.

Cincinnati 1946-1953
Western Reserve now Case Western Reserve 1946-1955
Ohio U. 1946-now
Miami 1947-now
Western Michigan 1947-now
Toledo 1950-now
Kent State 1951-now
Bowling Green 1952-now
Marshall 1954-1969


Wayne State Michigan and Butler left before 1950.

Not sure when Saint Louis dropped their football. It was around this time. Never mind, they dropped football in 1949.
University of Detroit now Detroit Mercy had football in the MVC, but left in 1957 and dropped football in 1964.

From all the places of football history, these schools that I listed where major D1 football programs. Especially Western Reserve
01-03-2019 06:30 PM
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jhasting Offline
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Post: #22
RE: OT: using machine learning to rank teams each year 1950 to present (25 year average)
(01-03-2019 06:30 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  I noticed some programs missing. These are in the MAC conference.

Cincinnati 1946-1953
Western Reserve now Case Western Reserve 1946-1955
Ohio U. 1946-now
Miami 1947-now
Western Michigan 1947-now
Toledo 1950-now
Kent State 1951-now
Bowling Green 1952-now
Marshall 1954-1969


Wayne State Michigan and Butler left before 1950.

Not sure when Saint Louis dropped their football. It was around this time. Never mind, they dropped football in 1949.
University of Detroit now Detroit Mercy had football in the MVC, but left in 1957 and dropped football in 1964.

From all the places of football history, these schools that I listed where major D1 football programs. Especially Western Reserve

All schools ranked are in div1, ex ohio records show 1962 as 1st year at div1
01-03-2019 08:42 PM
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bullet Offline
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Post: #23
RE: OT: using machine learning to rank teams each year 1950 to present (25 year average)
(01-03-2019 06:03 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(01-03-2019 03:16 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(01-03-2019 03:14 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(01-03-2019 02:17 PM)jhasting Wrote:  
(01-03-2019 02:04 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Auburn and Ohio State split the national championship in '57. Ohio State is 6th and Auburn isn't even on the list probably because the computer didn't recognize Alabama Polytechnic Institute, or API.

Alabama is ranked in the top 2 during Ears Whitworth's worst ever Alabama teams, including their 3 win season.

Auburn is #40 in 1957. The program does show a dominant 1957 season for Auburn and they improved almost 100pts in ELO, but again this method is NOT ranking single seasons, looking at Auburn from 1932-1957 shows many good seasons (they are #20 in 1938) but also many bad seasons until they begin consistently winning in the 70s. This is evident because they go from #61 in 1950, to the 30s through the 1960, then the teens in the 70s where they remained until this season.


ELO,Auburn,1978.90464209402,WON,Auburn,7,@,<8> Tennessee,0,Sep 28 1957,
ELO,Auburn,1981.56926717746,WON,<7> Auburn,40,vs,Chattanooga,7,Oct 5 1957,
ELO,Auburn,1997.64373173413,WON,<9> Auburn,6,vs,Kentucky,0,Oct 12 1957,
ELO,Auburn,2020.71670062014,WON,<9> Auburn,3,@,Georgia Tech,0,Oct 19 1957,
ELO,Auburn,2029.31965089445,WON,<5> Auburn,48,@,Houston,7,Oct 26 1957,
ELO,Auburn,2040.87783551551,WON,<4> Auburn,13,vs,<19> Florida,0,Nov 2 1957,
ELO,Auburn,2049.75700820969,WON,<3> Auburn,15,vs,<17> Mississippi State,7,Nov 9 1957,
ELO,Auburn,2055.42171200981,WON,<3> Auburn,6,vs,Georgia,0,Nov 16 1957,
ELO,Auburn,2057.63910744007,WON,<2> Auburn,29,@,Florida State,7,Nov 23 1957,
ELO,Auburn,2062.20257652763,WON,<1> Auburn,40,vs,Alabama,0,Nov 30 1957,

This system may be fine for tracking a long range trend, but for rating schools by season it is beyond absurd and worthless.

Read the OP JR!!! That is what he is doing. He is tracking long range trends and not saying anything about season by season.

I play chess, play it well, and have never heard of an ELO outside of Jeff Lynne and the Electric Light Orchestra. Any system that is not self explanatory fails. And quite frankly old fading blue bloods will not want to be tracked and rated. New and rising programs will take a couple of decades to be recognized so they will skip it for quick publicity.

I grasped the concept in just looking at the data. It's probably good for a grad project in statistics but as far as having a broad application? Not so much.

Electric Light Orchestra? You may not be as old as you claim!04-cheers

ELO is the system they use in rating players in chess. And its the system Sagarin uses in one of his rating systems (the one the BCS used). The basic ELO system is pretty simple. Before computers made the formula more complex, for your initial rating, you simply took your opponents rating and added 500 points if you won, 0 if you drew and subtracted 500 points if you lost. Then you averaged those results of all your games. So if you played a 1500 and won, a 1500 and lost a 1700 and drew and a 1300 and won, your rating would be (1500+500+1500-500+1700+0+1300+500)/4=1625.
01-03-2019 10:36 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #24
RE: OT: using machine learning to rank teams each year 1950 to present (25 year average)
(01-03-2019 10:36 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(01-03-2019 06:03 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(01-03-2019 03:16 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(01-03-2019 03:14 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(01-03-2019 02:17 PM)jhasting Wrote:  Auburn is #40 in 1957. The program does show a dominant 1957 season for Auburn and they improved almost 100pts in ELO, but again this method is NOT ranking single seasons, looking at Auburn from 1932-1957 shows many good seasons (they are #20 in 1938) but also many bad seasons until they begin consistently winning in the 70s. This is evident because they go from #61 in 1950, to the 30s through the 1960, then the teens in the 70s where they remained until this season.


ELO,Auburn,1978.90464209402,WON,Auburn,7,@,<8> Tennessee,0,Sep 28 1957,
ELO,Auburn,1981.56926717746,WON,<7> Auburn,40,vs,Chattanooga,7,Oct 5 1957,
ELO,Auburn,1997.64373173413,WON,<9> Auburn,6,vs,Kentucky,0,Oct 12 1957,
ELO,Auburn,2020.71670062014,WON,<9> Auburn,3,@,Georgia Tech,0,Oct 19 1957,
ELO,Auburn,2029.31965089445,WON,<5> Auburn,48,@,Houston,7,Oct 26 1957,
ELO,Auburn,2040.87783551551,WON,<4> Auburn,13,vs,<19> Florida,0,Nov 2 1957,
ELO,Auburn,2049.75700820969,WON,<3> Auburn,15,vs,<17> Mississippi State,7,Nov 9 1957,
ELO,Auburn,2055.42171200981,WON,<3> Auburn,6,vs,Georgia,0,Nov 16 1957,
ELO,Auburn,2057.63910744007,WON,<2> Auburn,29,@,Florida State,7,Nov 23 1957,
ELO,Auburn,2062.20257652763,WON,<1> Auburn,40,vs,Alabama,0,Nov 30 1957,

This system may be fine for tracking a long range trend, but for rating schools by season it is beyond absurd and worthless.

Read the OP JR!!! That is what he is doing. He is tracking long range trends and not saying anything about season by season.

I play chess, play it well, and have never heard of an ELO outside of Jeff Lynne and the Electric Light Orchestra. Any system that is not self explanatory fails. And quite frankly old fading blue bloods will not want to be tracked and rated. New and rising programs will take a couple of decades to be recognized so they will skip it for quick publicity.

I grasped the concept in just looking at the data. It's probably good for a grad project in statistics but as far as having a broad application? Not so much.

Electric Light Orchestra? You may not be as old as you claim!04-cheers

ELO is the system they use in rating players in chess. And its the system Sagarin uses in one of his rating systems (the one the BCS used). The basic ELO system is pretty simple. Before computers made the formula more complex, for your initial rating, you simply took your opponents rating and added 500 points if you won, 0 if you drew and subtracted 500 points if you lost. Then you averaged those results of all your games. So if you played a 1500 and won, a 1500 and lost a 1700 and drew and a 1300 and won, your rating would be (1500+500+1500-500+1700+0+1300+500)/4=1625.

Thanks for the explanation. Chess was always a gentlemen's game. I never joined a chess club but I probably didn't need to. My best buddies' dad was a chess master from Europe and if we just played him close it was a great game. Imported beer, or a good cognac was the reward of the game. Well that and a great exercise of the gray matter. I hate computer chess. Once you beat the program it's virtually worthless because of the overwhelming temptation to beat the thing again by exploiting the same blind spot in the programming.

As to age determination by music, I love 30's jazz, 40's Big Band, 50's - 80's rock, and not very much after that other than folk. I particularly loved Joan Baez, Peter, Paul & Mary, Joni Mitchel, and Nanci Griffith's music! I love folk music period, pretty much no matter the era, and that includes Bluegrass. I liked ELO because it was the best synergy between orchestra and rock that I had heard. And yes I love classical music as well. I'm particularly fond of adagios since I find them very relaxing.
(This post was last modified: 01-04-2019 01:09 AM by JRsec.)
01-03-2019 10:59 PM
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DavidSt Offline
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Post: #25
RE: OT: using machine learning to rank teams each year 1950 to present (25 year average)
(01-03-2019 08:42 PM)jhasting Wrote:  
(01-03-2019 06:30 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  I noticed some programs missing. These are in the MAC conference.

Cincinnati 1946-1953
Western Reserve now Case Western Reserve 1946-1955
Ohio U. 1946-now
Miami 1947-now
Western Michigan 1947-now
Toledo 1950-now
Kent State 1951-now
Bowling Green 1952-now
Marshall 1954-1969


Wayne State Michigan and Butler left before 1950.

Not sure when Saint Louis dropped their football. It was around this time. Never mind, they dropped football in 1949.
University of Detroit now Detroit Mercy had football in the MVC, but left in 1957 and dropped football in 1964.

From all the places of football history, these schools that I listed where major D1 football programs. Especially Western Reserve

All schools ranked are in div1, ex ohio records show 1962 as 1st year at div1


How can schools in D1 play with schools not in the same conference at the highest level? Western Reserve is like an Ivy League school at the highest level before the merger? Ohio U. is a founding member of the MAC in 1946 which including Wayne State. Butler was there before 1950. 1950-1960s was before the first divisions of 1, 2 and 3.

MAC Conference Started

Quote:Since its inception in 1946, the Mid-American Conference has progressively grown and developed into one of the most aggressive Division I conference’s in the country.

From what it sounded, the MAC started at the highest level or D1 in 1946. Ohio U. is the only sole chartered member left. Sounds like there are some messup on who were D1 between 1950 to 1960s.
01-04-2019 12:02 AM
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