RE: AAC TV contract done
It's a good contract.
I ran some spreadsheet tables of the amount with various projections of increases from 3% to 5% per year, then divided by 13 for each schools take, given that the conference HQ typically takes a share in such contracts. If you run the 4% per year "middle number" the results look pretty close to what the Memphis President reported:
Total For Conference:
First year (2020-21): $66,525,552
Last year (2031-32): $102,413,031
Take per school:
First year (2020-21): $5,117,350
Last year (2031-32): $7,877,925
Assuming Navy gets 75% share and Wichita State gets 25% share
Navy
First year (2020-21): $3,838,013
Last year (2031-32): $5,908,444
Note: I am not sure this is a good deal for Navy, as they were getting well north of $2.5M per year for the Notre Dame game alone (or more accurately north of $5M for the game every other year). It's probably a wash for them. But they have another $5M per year and increasing for the Army-Navy game.
Wichita State
First year (2020-21): $1,279,338
Last year (2031-32): $1,969,481
The Pac-12 is the weakest on Revenue of the P5 with around $32M. Even if you project that at the same 3-4% per year they will be around $45-50M per school come 2031-32. So make no mistake this is not a power conference level deal. But as a G5 deal it probably blows everyone else out. My guess is the MWC comes in at 40-50% of this. CUSA, SBC and MAC stay flat.
Of interest to me is no GOR with this. But the money does make the Big East less attractive to UConn. While a $4M injection is nice, that does not come close to closing the gap in their $41M revenue shortfall. Gaps of $15-20M exist for most of the American, and this only allows them to continue.
Looking at the B12 2025 replacement list, I'm not surprised GOR died. Houston, Cincy, UCF and USF are all serious candidates and Memphis wants to believe it is. ESPN must feel that at most 2 schools will get snagged and the AAC will have the power to pull the two best available schools as replacements, or stand pat at 10 and move to round robin scheduling (believe me ESPN gamed out the back 6 years before agreeing to the terms).
This is as good as the American could get, and I think it solidifies them as the best G5 conference for the next decade. C-USA looks like the sick sister. The MWC looks like the G5 equivalent of the P12, safe, but in a region of the country that only has 25% of the population and two time zones away from the other 75% of the country, so unable to challenge most of the time.
Give Aresco credit for getting as good a deal as he could.
(This post was last modified: 03-20-2019 03:16 PM by Stugray2.)
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