(08-14-2019 04:18 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  https://slate.com/business/2019/08/reces...rmany.html

This article talks about three potential solutions. One the Fed could cut interest rates.

Two - Congress could stimulate the economy by 'borrowing a whole boatload of cash and spending it on upgrading our rotting transportation networks. Thirty-year Treasury bonds are trading at around 2 percent right now, and threatening to drop lower—meaning the government can borrow for practically nothing for three decades at a time. Maybe we should take advantage of that? Fix some subways? Repair some roads? Make good on one of Donald Trump’s central campaign promises, even if it mildly hurts the Democrats’ chances in 2020?'

"Finally, Trump himself could call off the so-far ineffective trade war he’s been waging without much strategy or direction. We know the trade war is causing trouble for American farmers, despite the administration’s bailout. As I mentioned above, it’s also pretty clearly hurting domestic business investment. And as Neil Irwin writes at the New York Times, it’s driving global trouble too. Our tariffs seem to be putting a dent in China’s factory production and scaring Chinese consumers out of spending. Trump almost surely sees this as a plus, but as a result, Germany is exporting fewer cars to the People’s Republic, which is weighing on its own growth, which is bad for all of Europe. And the weaker the world economy gets, the more likely it is that companies everywhere will cut back on hiring."

The problem with #2 and #3 is the first one will require leadership in Congress to work together. And that hasn't been happening lately. And the third solution is Trump will have to admit he's wrong about something. And he doesn't do that ever either.

So his solution for now is to blame the Fed and call the Fed chair clueless, which is sad because he's a Republican whom Trump appointed.

Bold strategy. Try to convince people the economy sucks. Gotta work better than Beto.

Pathetic.

(08-14-2019 04:51 PM)shere khan Wrote:  

(08-14-2019 04:18 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  https://slate.com/business/2019/08/reces...rmany.html

This article talks about three potential solutions. One the Fed could cut interest rates.

Two - Congress could stimulate the economy by 'borrowing a whole boatload of cash and spending it on upgrading our rotting transportation networks. Thirty-year Treasury bonds are trading at around 2 percent right now, and threatening to drop lower—meaning the government can borrow for practically nothing for three decades at a time. Maybe we should take advantage of that? Fix some subways? Repair some roads? Make good on one of Donald Trump’s central campaign promises, even if it mildly hurts the Democrats’ chances in 2020?'

"Finally, Trump himself could call off the so-far ineffective trade war he’s been waging without much strategy or direction. We know the trade war is causing trouble for American farmers, despite the administration’s bailout. As I mentioned above, it’s also pretty clearly hurting domestic business investment. And as Neil Irwin writes at the New York Times, it’s driving global trouble too. Our tariffs seem to be putting a dent in China’s factory production and scaring Chinese consumers out of spending. Trump almost surely sees this as a plus, but as a result, Germany is exporting fewer cars to the People’s Republic, which is weighing on its own growth, which is bad for all of Europe. And the weaker the world economy gets, the more likely it is that companies everywhere will cut back on hiring."

The problem with #2 and #3 is the first one will require leadership in Congress to work together. And that hasn't been happening lately. And the third solution is Trump will have to admit he's wrong about something. And he doesn't do that ever either.

So his solution for now is to blame the Fed and call the Fed chair clueless, which is sad because he's a Republican whom Trump appointed.

Bold strategy. Try to convince people the economy sucks. Gotta work better than Beto.

Pathetic.

You'd think by listening to the news the US was heading for a second Great Depresssion. It's kind of funny if not for the fact so many people believe what the MSM tells them.

(08-15-2019 09:44 AM)VA49er Wrote:  

(08-14-2019 04:51 PM)shere khan Wrote:  

(08-14-2019 04:18 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  https://slate.com/business/2019/08/reces...rmany.html

This article talks about three potential solutions. One the Fed could cut interest rates.

Two - Congress could stimulate the economy by 'borrowing a whole boatload of cash and spending it on upgrading our rotting transportation networks. Thirty-year Treasury bonds are trading at around 2 percent right now, and threatening to drop lower—meaning the government can borrow for practically nothing for three decades at a time. Maybe we should take advantage of that? Fix some subways? Repair some roads? Make good on one of Donald Trump’s central campaign promises, even if it mildly hurts the Democrats’ chances in 2020?'

"Finally, Trump himself could call off the so-far ineffective trade war he’s been waging without much strategy or direction. We know the trade war is causing trouble for American farmers, despite the administration’s bailout. As I mentioned above, it’s also pretty clearly hurting domestic business investment. And as Neil Irwin writes at the New York Times, it’s driving global trouble too. Our tariffs seem to be putting a dent in China’s factory production and scaring Chinese consumers out of spending. Trump almost surely sees this as a plus, but as a result, Germany is exporting fewer cars to the People’s Republic, which is weighing on its own growth, which is bad for all of Europe. And the weaker the world economy gets, the more likely it is that companies everywhere will cut back on hiring."

The problem with #2 and #3 is the first one will require leadership in Congress to work together. And that hasn't been happening lately. And the third solution is Trump will have to admit he's wrong about something. And he doesn't do that ever either.

So his solution for now is to blame the Fed and call the Fed chair clueless, which is sad because he's a Republican whom Trump appointed.

Bold strategy. Try to convince people the economy sucks. Gotta work better than Beto.

Pathetic.

You'd think by listening to the news the US was heading for a second Great Depresssion. It's kind of funny if not for the fact so many people believe what the MSM tells them.

It's obviously the new strategy. RUSSIA! didn't work. RAYCISS! doesn't appear to be working. The left and their MSM propaganda machine is now aiming to manufacture a recession.

It's beyond pathetic, but I believe most people are smart enough to see through this.

(08-14-2019 03:22 PM)fsquid Wrote:  We're the kids in America

You keep me hanging on.

https://nypost.com/2019/08/14/the-2020-d...eat-trump/

Entertaining piece on the inversion.


"...The past 20 years have made a mockery of economic forecasting based on past experience. That’s why I am writing about this in a mocking tone.

This is not to say that we should ignore the lessons of history, merely that we shouldn’t presume they provide a linear map to the future.

If I had a nickel for every wrong-headed economic prediction made in the years following the meltdown of 2008 and the Great Recession, from economists both on the left and on the right — about how the stimulus would create an economic boom and about how the Fed’s policy of quantitative easing would lead to a Weimar-like inflationary spiral — I might have enough for a down payment on a Hamptons house.

Of course, I could really use a recession to make that down payment go a little farther. . . "

(08-15-2019 10:37 AM)bullet Wrote:  https://nypost.com/2019/08/14/the-2020-d...eat-trump/

Entertaining piece on the inversion.


"...The past 20 years have made a mockery of economic forecasting based on past experience. That’s why I am writing about this in a mocking tone.

This is not to say that we should ignore the lessons of history, merely that we shouldn’t presume they provide a linear map to the future.

If I had a nickel for every wrong-headed economic prediction made in the years following the meltdown of 2008 and the Great Recession, from economists both on the left and on the right — about how the stimulus would create an economic boom and about how the Fed’s policy of quantitative easing would lead to a Weimar-like inflationary spiral — I might have enough for a down payment on a Hamptons house.

Of course, I could really use a recession to make that down payment go a little farther. . . "

From what I've read, the Quantative Easing during the last recession may have made the yield curve less of an indicator as it has been in the past. That remains to be seen but is an interesting theory.

If we had only elected Jill Stein...we could have quantitatively eased all of our problems away.

The inverted yield curve as a predictor of a recession USED to be an excellent indicator. It became far less of one when under Bentsen, we suspended the long bond, went to MANY more shorter term mortgage products and issued a large quantity of short debt... and then the fed doubled down on that with huge open market purchases of securities etc etc...

I'm not saying we're not there... I'm much further away from it than I used to be... but the indicator has been fundamentally changed by supply and demand. Short yields are artificially high and long ones low, relative to in the past.