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On experts
https://www.realclearmarkets.com/article...03850.html

Progressives have a love for "experts."

"A frequent theme in this column is one about the fallability of the brilliant. Jeff Bezos regularly acknowledges how often his experiments prove much less than great, the best venture capitalists admit that more than nine out of ten capital commitments result in bankruptcy, and then the world's best traders note that they're wrong almost as often as they're right. It's incredibly difficult to predict the future, and that's an understatement.

This truism came to mind while reading Washington Post columnist Catherine Rampell’s lament about the Department of Agriculture’s recent decision to relocate the Economic Research Service (ERS) from Washington, D.C. to Kansas City. Rampell reports that in response to the announced change, only 116 ERS employees had agreed to move. The columnist is up in arms....


Indeed, it’s not as though “experts” uniquely work in government in Washington, D.C. Readers can rest assured that Fidel Castro’s Cuba had its share of experts high up in government, same in Mao’s China, and surely in Stalin’s Russia. Of course, the previous truth didn’t mean that hunger, starvation, murder and relentless misery didn’t broadly define life in countries ruled by experts. Brilliant as experts might be, they’ll never know even a fraction of what markets do. ..."
08-15-2019 08:19 AM
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Hambone10 Online
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RE: On experts
The way to get rich in this country is NOT to make 10 reasonable bets. With 10 reasonable bets you get a reasonable rate of return.

The way to get rich in this country is to make 10 VERY RISKY bets. If you put 100,000 in each of them... you are likely to lose 900k, but the one you WON with will earn you 20mm.

Of course you investigate your bets... but if they are highly likely to hit, they aren't returning millions.
08-15-2019 09:23 AM
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Owl 69/70/75 Offline
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RE: On experts
(08-15-2019 08:19 AM)bullet Wrote:  https://www.realclearmarkets.com/article...03850.html
Progressives have a love for "experts."
"A frequent theme in this column is one about the fallability of the brilliant. Jeff Bezos regularly acknowledges how often his experiments prove much less than great, the best venture capitalists admit that more than nine out of ten capital commitments result in bankruptcy, and then the world's best traders note that they're wrong almost as often as they're right. It's incredibly difficult to predict the future, and that's an understatement.
This truism came to mind while reading Washington Post columnist Catherine Rampell’s lament about the Department of Agriculture’s recent decision to relocate the Economic Research Service (ERS) from Washington, D.C. to Kansas City. Rampell reports that in response to the announced change, only 116 ERS employees had agreed to move. The columnist is up in arms....

Goodbye and good riddance. Best reason I can imagine for making the move.

Quote:Indeed, it’s not as though “experts” uniquely work in government in Washington, D.C. Readers can rest assured that Fidel Castro’s Cuba had its share of experts high up in government, same in Mao’s China, and surely in Stalin’s Russia. Of course, the previous truth didn’t mean that hunger, starvation, murder and relentless misery didn’t broadly define life in countries ruled by experts. Brilliant as experts might be, they’ll never know even a fraction of what markets do. ..."

We have more "experts" working in and around the Pentagon than it took to win WWII. And I defy anyone to explain how they have made things better.
08-15-2019 11:44 AM
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DustMyBroom Offline
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RE: On experts
(08-15-2019 08:19 AM)bullet Wrote:  https://www.realclearmarkets.com/article...03850.html

Progressives have a love for "experts."

"A frequent theme in this column is one about the fallability of the brilliant. Jeff Bezos regularly acknowledges how often his experiments prove much less than great, the best venture capitalists admit that more than nine out of ten capital commitments result in bankruptcy, and then the world's best traders note that they're wrong almost as often as they're right. It's incredibly difficult to predict the future, and that's an understatement.

This truism came to mind while reading Washington Post columnist Catherine Rampell’s lament about the Department of Agriculture’s recent decision to relocate the Economic Research Service (ERS) from Washington, D.C. to Kansas City. Rampell reports that in response to the announced change, only 116 ERS employees had agreed to move. The columnist is up in arms....


Indeed, it’s not as though “experts” uniquely work in government in Washington, D.C. Readers can rest assured that Fidel Castro’s Cuba had its share of experts high up in government, same in Mao’s China, and surely in Stalin’s Russia. Of course, the previous truth didn’t mean that hunger, starvation, murder and relentless misery didn’t broadly define life in countries ruled by experts. Brilliant as experts might be, they’ll never know even a fraction of what markets do. ..."

I’m just sitting here wondering why, in this age of labor saving devices aplenty, we really need more than 116 employees in the Economic Research Service.
08-15-2019 12:27 PM
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