School//NET/KenPom/Sagarin/Massey
Memphis//28/39/21/28
WSU// 31/42/42/23
Houston//34/23/16/25
Cincy//63/50/45/59
SMU//70/76/73/73
Temple// 81/87/89/83
Tulsa//85/96/90/93
UConn// 88/78/91/86
UCF// 118/110/103/102
Tulane//126/172/177/150
USF// 136/127/127/130
ECU// 237/251/218/220

If selection was today 3 NCAA bids 3 NIT ?

At this time; Houston, WSU, and Memphis appear NCAA Tourney bound. However, significant volatility still exists. For example, below is NET change from 1/12/20 compared to 1/19/20:

Tulane (-30)
WSU (-22)
ECU (-19)
Memphis (-5)
UConn (-4)
USF (-1)
Cincy (+1)
Temple (+2)
SMU (+6)
UCF (+14)
Houston (+15)
Tulsa (+22)

Creepin on ah come up!

(01-20-2020 08:47 AM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  At this time; Houston, WSU, and Memphis appear NCAA Tourney bound. However, significant volatility still exists. For example, below is NET change from 1/12/20 compared to 1/19/20:

Tulane (-30)
WSU (-22)
ECU (-19)
Memphis (-5)
UConn (-4)
USF (-1)
Cincy (+1)
Temple (+2)
SMU (+6)
UCF (+14)
Houston (+15)
Tulsa (+22)

Lot's of volatility for sure. I still think we get 3-4 in but Houston is the only one for sure that I am confident is a definite.

I predicted 4-5 preseason. Now I think that was very overly optimistic.

3-4 imo. Cincy looks to be back on track, I expect them to finish 13-5 in conference (splitting with Memphis, WSU and Houston) and 20-10 overall, which I think would be good enough to make the tourney. As long as the big 3 mentioned don't suffer too many head scratching losses I think all 3 will make it pretty comfortably as well.

The volatility will start rapidly decreasing. Enough games have occurred that exceptional games either good or bad will not significantly change season statistics and almost all the non-con schedules are done meaning the conferences are becoming closed loops.

I think its four with an outside chance at five. Right now I think Cincy ends up being just in. Temple, SMU, and UConn might find themselves in position with the right games to sneak in after a good tourney run. That requires one of those three to get it going. Tulsa needs to have a hell of a conference regular season and a tourney run but doing so would probably get them close.

(01-20-2020 12:14 PM)Nameless Wrote:  3-4 imo. Cincy looks to be back on track, I expect them to finish 13-5 in conference (splitting with Memphis, WSU and Houston) and 20-10 overall, which I think would be good enough to make the tourney. As long as the big 3 mentioned don't suffer too many head scratching losses I think all 3 will make it pretty comfortably as well.

20-10 over with 2 losses outside Q1/Q2 might be really hard for Cincy. Those losses are going to really hurt. Maybe if they make it to the AAC Championship game. I think our best chance of 4 is WSU+Memphis+Houston+a 4th team winning the AAC Tourney.

(01-20-2020 01:52 PM)Stickboy46 Wrote:  

(01-20-2020 12:14 PM)Nameless Wrote:  3-4 imo. Cincy looks to be back on track, I expect them to finish 13-5 in conference (splitting with Memphis, WSU and Houston) and 20-10 overall, which I think would be good enough to make the tourney. As long as the big 3 mentioned don't suffer too many head scratching losses I think all 3 will make it pretty comfortably as well.

20-10 over with 2 losses outside Q1/Q2 might be really hard for Cincy. Those losses are going to really hurt. Maybe if they make it to the AAC Championship game. I think our best chance of 4 is WSU+Memphis+Houston+a 4th team winning the AAC Tourney.

Lots of teams are going to have those losses this year. 9/10 years I think you're right, but the league is as strong as it's been and this year has been a wild rollercoaster ride.

(01-20-2020 01:52 PM)Stickboy46 Wrote:  

(01-20-2020 12:14 PM)Nameless Wrote:  3-4 imo. Cincy looks to be back on track, I expect them to finish 13-5 in conference (splitting with Memphis, WSU and Houston) and 20-10 overall, which I think would be good enough to make the tourney. As long as the big 3 mentioned don't suffer too many head scratching losses I think all 3 will make it pretty comfortably as well.

20-10 over with 2 losses outside Q1/Q2 might be really hard for Cincy. Those losses are going to really hurt. Maybe if they make it to the AAC Championship game. I think our best chance of 4 is WSU+Memphis+Houston+a 4th team winning the AAC Tourney.

I definitely understand your point and felt similarly earlier in the season. But looking at their overall SoS, having wins over Tenn, Memphis, WSU and Houston as well as finishing 10 games over .500 I think would make their resume strong enough for an at large in the 8-10 range. The SoS argument is used in favor of teams from deep conferences quite often; I know this is typically for the "P5" and Big East but the bball committee tends to look more favorably at established hoops brands such as Cincinnati from outside of that group as well. If they have a 20-10 regular season finish then win 1 tourney game they're a lock imo. Finish 20-11 though and they may be sweating on selection Sunday.

I think a top 40 NET makes them a lock. I know they're 20 or so spots behind that right now but adding a few key victories against conference mates will really boost that ranking. It will be interesting to see how the pundits feel should they finish the season the way I expect them to, and will definitely speak volumes as to whether or not the conference is getting the respect it deserves.

(01-20-2020 03:54 PM)Nameless Wrote:  

(01-20-2020 01:52 PM)Stickboy46 Wrote:  

(01-20-2020 12:14 PM)Nameless Wrote:  3-4 imo. Cincy looks to be back on track, I expect them to finish 13-5 in conference (splitting with Memphis, WSU and Houston) and 20-10 overall, which I think would be good enough to make the tourney. As long as the big 3 mentioned don't suffer too many head scratching losses I think all 3 will make it pretty comfortably as well.

20-10 over with 2 losses outside Q1/Q2 might be really hard for Cincy. Those losses are going to really hurt. Maybe if they make it to the AAC Championship game. I think our best chance of 4 is WSU+Memphis+Houston+a 4th team winning the AAC Tourney.

I definitely understand your point and felt similarly earlier in the season. But looking at their overall SoS, having wins over Tenn, Memphis, WSU and Houston as well as finishing 10 games over .500 I think would make their resume strong enough for an at large in the 8-10 range. The SoS argument is used in favor of teams from deep conferences quite often; I know this is typically for the "P5" and Big East but the bball committee tends to look more favorably at established hoops brands such as Cincinnati from outside of that group as well. If they have a 20-10 regular season finish then win 1 tourney game they're a lock imo. Finish 20-11 though and they may be sweating on selection Sunday.

I think a top 40 NET makes them a lock. I know they're 20 or so spots behind that right now but adding a few key victories against conference mates will really boost that ranking. It will be interesting to see how the pundits feel should they finish the season the way I expect them to, and will definitely speak volumes as to whether or not the conference is getting the respect it deserves.

Outside of what group the P7??? Guess you were trying to be slick. I can't wait until UCONN is gone and can't bring down the AAC SOS anymore.

(01-20-2020 05:59 PM)Tigersmoke4 Wrote:  

(01-20-2020 03:54 PM)Nameless Wrote:  

(01-20-2020 01:52 PM)Stickboy46 Wrote:  

(01-20-2020 12:14 PM)Nameless Wrote:  3-4 imo. Cincy looks to be back on track, I expect them to finish 13-5 in conference (splitting with Memphis, WSU and Houston) and 20-10 overall, which I think would be good enough to make the tourney. As long as the big 3 mentioned don't suffer too many head scratching losses I think all 3 will make it pretty comfortably as well.

20-10 over with 2 losses outside Q1/Q2 might be really hard for Cincy. Those losses are going to really hurt. Maybe if they make it to the AAC Championship game. I think our best chance of 4 is WSU+Memphis+Houston+a 4th team winning the AAC Tourney.

I definitely understand your point and felt similarly earlier in the season. But looking at their overall SoS, having wins over Tenn, Memphis, WSU and Houston as well as finishing 10 games over .500 I think would make their resume strong enough for an at large in the 8-10 range. The SoS argument is used in favor of teams from deep conferences quite often; I know this is typically for the "P5" and Big East but the bball committee tends to look more favorably at established hoops brands such as Cincinnati from outside of that group as well. If they have a 20-10 regular season finish then win 1 tourney game they're a lock imo. Finish 20-11 though and they may be sweating on selection Sunday.

I think a top 40 NET makes them a lock. I know they're 20 or so spots behind that right now but adding a few key victories against conference mates will really boost that ranking. It will be interesting to see how the pundits feel should they finish the season the way I expect them to, and will definitely speak volumes as to whether or not the conference is getting the respect it deserves.

Outside of what group the P7??? Guess you were trying to be slick. I can't wait until UCONN is gone and can't bring down the AAC SOS anymore.

Are you really that dense? The entire post was complimentary and not meant to be a slight at all. I've never bashed this conference champ

I didn't include this conference with the others I listed because the first season it was in existence I felt every team that made the tourney should have been at least a seed line higher, which I thought was a sign of disrespect. I think the committee has been more fair in the seasons since but I don't think anyone here would say the conference as a whole gets preferential treatment, an argument one can make for a handful of other conferences.

I was making a point about the committee being more fair with established brands, regardless of conference. Need examples from outside of the "P7" where this has been seen? How about Gonzaga? Memphis during the Calipari days? If you have an established brand and a decent resume, the committee will reward you more often than not.

(01-20-2020 08:44 PM)Nameless Wrote:  .
I think the committee has been more fair in the seasons since but I don't think anyone here would say the conference as a whole gets preferential treatment...

I was making a point about the committee being more fair with established brands, regardless of conference.

Need examples from outside of the "P7" where this has been seen?

If you have an established brand and a decent resume, the committee will reward you more often than not.

How much fairer has the selection procedure actually gotten? The number of at-large bids alloted to P5 and Big East teams has only shrunk slightly, from 33 in 2017 to 29 in 2019.

Over 80% of the at-large bids have gone to P5 and Big East teams in 2017, 2018, and 2019.

.

In the 2019 NCAA, 29 at-large bids went to P5 and Big East teams.

Seven at-large bids went to teams from the 27 other D1 conferences.

.
In the 2018 NCAA, 32 at-large bids went to P5 and Big East teams.

Five at-large bids went to teams from the 27 other D1 conferences.


.
In the 2017 NCAA, 33 at-large bids went to P5 and Big East teams.

Four at-large bids went to teams from the 27 other D1 conferences.

(01-20-2020 09:12 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  

(01-20-2020 08:44 PM)Nameless Wrote:  .
I think the committee has been more fair in the seasons since but I don't think anyone here would say the conference as a whole gets preferential treatment...

I was making a point about the committee being more fair with established brands, regardless of conference.

Need examples from outside of the "P7" where this has been seen?

If you have an established brand and a decent resume, the committee will reward you more often than not.

How much fairer has the selection procedure actually gotten? The number of at-large bids alloted to P5 and Big East teams has only shrunk slightly, from 33 in 2017 to 29 in 2019.

Over 80% of the at-large bids have gone to P5 and Big East teams in 2017, 2018, and 2019.

.

In the 2019 NCAA, 29 at-large bids went to P5 and Big East teams.

Seven at-large bids went to teams from the 27 other D1 conferences.

.
In the 2018 NCAA, 32 at-large bids went to P5 and Big East teams.

Five at-large bids went to teams from the 27 other D1 conferences.


.
In the 2017 NCAA, 33 at-large bids went to P5 and Big East teams.

Four at-large bids went to teams from the 27 other D1 conferences.

I didn't say it had gotten more fair, just that established brands from outside of that select group tend to be treated more fairly. In general, the point I've been trying to make is that if a team like Tulane had a resume similar to the Cincy resume I outlined earlier in the thread, I would be more worried about them not getting an at large bid. But a Cincy team with a strong SoS, 3+ Q1 wins and a 21-11 record (assuming they go 1-1 in the conf tourney) should be a lock, as they are an established hoops brand.

(01-20-2020 01:52 PM)Stickboy46 Wrote:  

(01-20-2020 12:14 PM)Nameless Wrote:  3-4 imo. Cincy looks to be back on track, I expect them to finish 13-5 in conference (splitting with Memphis, WSU and Houston) and 20-10 overall, which I think would be good enough to make the tourney. As long as the big 3 mentioned don't suffer too many head scratching losses I think all 3 will make it pretty comfortably as well.

20-10 over with 2 losses outside Q1/Q2 might be really hard for Cincy. Those losses are going to really hurt. Maybe if they make it to the AAC Championship game. I think our best chance of 4 is WSU+Memphis+Houston+a 4th team winning the AAC Tourney.

I think if we get to 21 wins overall (reg season + conf tourney), then we would get in. It would be close though, there is no guarantee there for sure.

Our OOC SOS right now is 14, which is really strong and gives us more leeway on the # of overall wins than usual. Our overall SOS (currently 31) will likely end up top 50.

(01-21-2020 11:09 AM)Nameless Wrote:  

(01-20-2020 09:12 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  

(01-20-2020 08:44 PM)Nameless Wrote:  .
I think the committee has been more fair in the seasons since but I don't think anyone here would say the conference as a whole gets preferential treatment...

I was making a point about the committee being more fair with established brands, regardless of conference.

Need examples from outside of the "P7" where this has been seen?

If you have an established brand and a decent resume, the committee will reward you more often than not.

How much fairer has the selection procedure actually gotten? The number of at-large bids alloted to P5 and Big East teams has only shrunk slightly, from 33 in 2017 to 29 in 2019.

Over 80% of the at-large bids have gone to P5 and Big East teams in 2017, 2018, and 2019.

.

In the 2019 NCAA, 29 at-large bids went to P5 and Big East teams.

Seven at-large bids went to teams from the 27 other D1 conferences.

.
In the 2018 NCAA, 32 at-large bids went to P5 and Big East teams.

Five at-large bids went to teams from the 27 other D1 conferences.


.
In the 2017 NCAA, 33 at-large bids went to P5 and Big East teams.

Four at-large bids went to teams from the 27 other D1 conferences.

I didn't say it had gotten more fair, just that established brands from outside of that select group tend to be treated more fairly. In general, the point I've been trying to make is that if a team like Tulane had a resume similar to the Cincy resume I outlined earlier in the thread, I would be more worried about them not getting an at large bid. But a Cincy team with a strong SoS, 3+ Q1 wins and a 21-11 record (assuming they go 1-1 in the conf tourney) should be a lock, as they are an established hoops brand.

Agree with this 100 percent.

(01-21-2020 11:09 AM)Nameless Wrote:  

(01-20-2020 09:12 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  

(01-20-2020 08:44 PM)Nameless Wrote:  .
I think the committee has been more fair in the seasons since but I don't think anyone here would say the conference as a whole gets preferential treatment...

I was making a point about the committee being more fair with established brands, regardless of conference.

Need examples from outside of the "P7" where this has been seen?

If you have an established brand and a decent resume, the committee will reward you more often than not.

How much fairer has the selection procedure actually gotten? The number of at-large bids alloted to P5 and Big East teams has only shrunk slightly, from 33 in 2017 to 29 in 2019.

Over 80% of the at-large bids have gone to P5 and Big East teams in 2017, 2018, and 2019.

.

In the 2019 NCAA, 29 at-large bids went to P5 and Big East teams.

Seven at-large bids went to teams from the 27 other D1 conferences.

.
In the 2018 NCAA, 32 at-large bids went to P5 and Big East teams.

Five at-large bids went to teams from the 27 other D1 conferences.


.
In the 2017 NCAA, 33 at-large bids went to P5 and Big East teams.

Four at-large bids went to teams from the 27 other D1 conferences.

I didn't say it had gotten more fair, just that established brands from outside of that select group tend to be treated more fairly. In general, the point I've been trying to make is that if a team like Tulane had a resume similar to the Cincy resume I outlined earlier in the thread, I would be more worried about them not getting an at large bid. But a Cincy team with a strong SoS, 3+ Q1 wins and a 21-11 record (assuming they go 1-1 in the conf tourney) should be a lock, as they are an established hoops brand.

I actually think that the selection process has been a bit fairer, overall (e.g., teams like Belmont and Temple getting in as 11 seeds last season), but only ever-so-slightly fairer. Instead of getting 90% of the at-large bids, the P5 and BE got "only" 80% of the at-large bids in 2019.

The NCAA selection committee had been under some pressure to admit more non P5/BE teams. They responded by letting a couple in as 11 seeds in 2019 - - but eliminated one immediately by having them play each other in the first four round.

The seedings may have been a bit fairer than the at-large bids were. Wofford (#7), Utah St (#8), Buffalo (#6), and Nevada (#7) are examples.

I haven't found any examples of non-P5/BE "brand" schools getting special consideration by the 2019 selection committee, with the exception of Temple. Wonder if anyone else finds another example or two in 2018 or 2019.