(04-19-2020 05:02 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  US unemployment has topped 22 million as of Wednesday April 16th
5.2 million filed first time claims this week
6.9 million filed last week
6.2 million filed two weeks ago
3.2 million filed three weeks ago

22.8 million jobs lost in just the last month.

Hawaii 21.7% unemployed
Michigan 21%
Rhode Island 20.6%
Pennsylvania 19.8%
Nevada 19.3%
Kentucky 19.1%
Louisiana 16.7%
Georgia 16.1%
Washington 15.9%
New Hampshire 15.9%
Massachusetts 15%
New Jersey 14.8%
Ohio 14.6%
California 14.5% (we were at 2% a month ago)
Alaska 14.4%
Minnesota 13.7%
D.C. 13.3%
Montana 13.2%
Vermont 13.1%
Indiana 13.1%
Maine 13%
Alabama 13%
Delaware 12.7%
New York 12.4%

It's bad news everywhere, and the claims will be pouring in for another month, at least another 10 million jobs will be lost. Revenues will be down fro business at least 25-30%, many will go bankrupt. It will take a few years for consumers to recover their financial losses and begin to spend again. Tax receipts will be down even more based on bracketing, perhaps 40% drop in State and Federal funds. States are required to balance budgets and that is scary for all State employees, including academia. In this environment Athletics are a luxury. Don;t be shocked if half the Athletic Department is terminated after summer. Furlough is likely just a precursor to layoff.

Overnight we entered The Depression.

(04-19-2020 06:52 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(04-19-2020 06:37 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  

(04-19-2020 06:20 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(04-19-2020 05:41 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  Fall enrollments are not keeping pace with last year.

But I think it's just because students are waiting longer to make a decision. There's so much uncertainty right now that they want to keep their options open as long as possible.

Total college enrollment traditionally increases in a recession. Why would this one be any different?

University of Phoenix to avoid having face to face contact?
They certainly won't be sitting out hoping for a job, unless they have a commercial truck license.

U of Phoenix no longer has an advantage in online education. As of 30 days ago, every school offers a full suite of online classes.

Most online schools (like U of Phoenix) are not accepted by the employers that college age kids want to work for. Kids know that.

Every mainline established State school faces 2 constant problems:
1. Funding
2. Space

This crisis has a silver lining if the academic leadership can think outside of the box for once.

All Freshman and Sophomore classes everywhere need to be taught online only (Basic Studies/Core Curriculum). What this does is to free up space on campus for Junior and Senior undergraduates, but more importantly it opens more space for post graduates and research.

How does it solve the money problem? There is no limit to students who may register for online courses. If all they pay is standard tuition and whatever book equivalent fee there is their parents still save over half of the expenses for the first 2 years and the schools actually make much more with the increased class sizes.

Here's the important part. Only a select number of finishing Sophomores will be selected to attend their Junior year on campus. These will be the top students in the state. All others finishing their first two years online successfully get an associate degree from the mainline state school and by decree of the state legislature all coursework taken will transfer to any other smaller state institution.

In Alabama the University of Alabama and Auburn University could set themselves up this way. Does that hurt Troy, UAB undergraduate, UNI, West Alabama, Jacksonville State, etc? Not at all. Students wanting to be away from home for their first two years will still be able to enroll and attend one of those schools. And those schools will have to make room for more incoming Juniors. The system floats all boats.

What about local merchants? No negative impact. Auburn and Alabama will still have as many students on campus as ever before only they will be older and more serious so it will cut down on local property damage, misdemeanors, and general jackassery.

Both main campuses will be able to devote more of their facilities to research which improves their standing academically.

Parents save 25% of the total 4 years of undergraduate if they go this route with their kids.

Both state schools by issuing associate degrees for basic studies grow their alumni and donor bases and it would promote more good will between state institutions to have a shared feeder program for their enrollments. And where the states needed to cut back would become very clear increasing the efficiency of higher education within the state.

Higher Education is currently extremely inefficient. It's the right time to fix it. Right now there will be less intentional obstructionism and foot dragging.

From a practical perspective, I like this, JRsec. But I like the freshman and sophomores being on the campus. Helps them grow up. Still, I could get on board with this.

(04-19-2020 10:46 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(04-19-2020 10:30 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(04-19-2020 10:01 AM)Thiefery Wrote:  

(04-19-2020 08:51 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(04-19-2020 08:37 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  Yes, more of this is coming. Academia and college sports will be hit very hard (already are) by the virus.

My brother teaches full-time at Vanderbilt, and he and I have discussed various scenarios involving his position specifically and the university in general. It's concerning.

I've still got my job (in media) but feel a pay cut or furlough is looming. And I'll take either of those in exchange for being able to keep my job.

A school like Louisiana-Lafayette is much poorer, but technically has the backing of the state government behind it, who could choose to help.

Isn't Louisiana broke? Isn't that how the state gets what it wants by leveraging LSU?

Basically yes, Louisiana is always broke. It's a miracle this hasn't happened here yet. It surely will. There is one advantage to being broke, you are already used to getting by on duck tape and bailing wire, which a place like UW-Madison is not. And, we did apparently get some stimulus money. But that will last about a day, until the fall enrollment numbers come in.

Maybe Louisiana will finally get the guts to do what has long been needed to be done and close Southern-New Orleans, dissolve the Southern U. system and put Southern in the U of Louisiana system and make some decisions about the mass of schools close together in North Louisiana (ULM, La Tech, Grambling, LSU-Shreveport, Southern-Shreveport, Northwestern St.).

Unfortunately the Southern system will not be going any where due to politics. As far as consolidating universities it needs to happen but the state has millions of dollars financed in most of the universities buildings that would close or be turned into two year colleges. It would destroy it budget upfront but would be better for the state in the long run, but hey that’s not Louisiana politics we F everything up.

(04-19-2020 06:59 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  

(04-19-2020 03:44 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(04-19-2020 03:08 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  

(04-19-2020 08:51 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(04-19-2020 08:37 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  Yes, more of this is coming. Academia and college sports will be hit very hard (already are) by the virus.

My brother teaches full-time at Vanderbilt, and he and I have discussed various scenarios involving his position specifically and the university in general. It's concerning.

I've still got my job (in media) but feel a pay cut or furlough is looming. And I'll take either of those in exchange for being able to keep my job.

Yes, public and private schools are likely to feel similar hits. Their are differences, e.g., a Vanderbilt is a very wealthy school, huge endowment. But it is also stand-alone. A school like Louisiana-Lafayette is much poorer, but technically has the backing of the state government behind it, who could choose to help. But usually the state doesn't help, and by law a state school must balance its budget every year, so any unforeseen shortfalls have to be made up with cuts immediately, especially near the end of a fiscal year, whereas a private school can handle deficits as it sees fit.

We shall see how things unfold.

Of concern for Vanderbilt is that it is undergoing 1. a chancellor change and 2. a major campus construction effort, including a neo-gothic collegiate tower of almost 300 feet and many millions in price tag.

We shall, indeed, see how things unfold, Quo.

I didn't realize they tore down/imploded Carmichael Towers. Looks like an ambitious plan

Good to know you are familiar with Carmichael Towers, dbackjon. It is a very ambitious plan, indeed. Four high-rises, each about 175-feet tall and constructed in the 1960s to be razed (two are gone). Designed by a very respected firm at the time, and now semi-iconic in Nashville architecture circles. Though the four were excessively utilitarian and monolithic (with a horrendous street presence), they were distinctive in that 1. very few mid-sized U.S. cities offer four mid-century modernist buildings of that bulk and height located outside their respective downtowns; 2. they are mainly brick; and 3. they loom over a very bustling, and important, street (West End Avenue).

As noted, two (Carmichael West) are gone — one imploded and the other "clawed" down. The other two will be demolished in May 2021 (as I understand).

The replacement building at 25th and West End is hugely impressive, punctuated by the aforementioned tower.

See some images here:

https://www.google.com/search?q=gothic-c...72&bih=789

I lived in Nashville from 2001-2006. For about half the time, my office was in the 2525 Building on West End (where PF Chang's/Barnes & Noble) etc are. My parking space was in a gargage that overlooked the Stadium.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/educ...157756002/
Students are unhappy and nobody has made any decisions.

(04-19-2020 11:43 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(04-19-2020 11:04 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(04-19-2020 10:42 AM)bullet Wrote:  Are you going to pay that big tuition if its going to be an online school? Or do you just go to the local community college online?

Depends. Are you paying for:
1. the "college experience"

2. The degree, the "white collar union card" that is required for so many jobs.

3. The brand name. The "platinum card" version of the "white collar union card."

4. the education.

If it's #1, then that's not happening and you know that. There's no weed-scented dorms and frisbee on the quad and raging frat keggers in your future. Should have picked a better year to be born, I guess.

If it's #2, you can take your online classes during the day and Xbox at night from your childhood bedroom just as well at wherever you "go to college. Community college, Directional State, Struggling Private University are all serious options. (SPU is discounting tuition to survive).

If it's #3, you'll pay the bill same as you would have a year ago. PAy your tuition, take your classes, do your four years, be a Name-Brand University Graduate. Ohio State resume goes to the top of the HR pile, at least locally.

If it's #4, then you're getting a Costco sized bottle of red pills during the Current Emergency.

Nobody cares that you spent the first year in community college if you spend the last 3 at brand name college.

Its very much #1 that's the issue. That plus the fact that most professors have not done online and don't know how to do it well yet.

Speaking from personal experience, if you are not communicating with an advisor from your brand name college and your CC/Juco, you will be spending a lot more $$'s than you planned on if you don't stay on top of your college credits and making sure that they transfer to your brand name college. JRSec brought up a very good point on another thread about more brand name colleges offering online courses. As a parent and as a student, I would jump all over this because now you no longer have to wonder if your courses will transfer or not. You can get your basic courses at the brand school of your choice online!!!

Students may have to make a decision by May 1st, but July 1st for most schools is the drop dead time to decide to attend and pay tuition. Some even August - especially the States and Directionals.

I know because my son delayed final decision -- we strung schools along to squeeze a bit more grant money. It worked, we got $5,000 more per year at the target school. But we didn't sign off officially until July, although we accepted in April.

The point is, many students will accept, but the parents will delay sending the check until they absolutely have to. If things are really bad in July and it doens't look like they can afford it, they'll back out.

What I expect to happen is high merit students will stay at elite colleges, as will those getting huge amounts of financial aid. But those who are middle or lower class will likely have their kids drop down a notch. For some that mean UC Irvine instead of Cornell, or Cal State Fullerton instead of UC Davis. Or Community college instead of San Diego State or San Jose State. And still others will have to work to support their family when their parents lose their jobs.

For the first time in a long time, value may trump prestige for college choice.

(04-19-2020 07:59 PM)bullet Wrote:  https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/educ...157756002/
Students are unhappy and nobody has made any decisions.

Earth to Students ... we're all unhappy, it's a pandemic.

(04-20-2020 02:43 AM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Students may have to make a decision by May 1st, but July 1st for most schools is the drop dead time to decide to attend and pay tuition. Some even August - especially the States and Directionals.

I know because my son delayed final decision -- we strung schools along to squeeze a bit more grant money. It worked, we got $5,000 more per year at the target school. But we didn't sign off officially until July, although we accepted in April.

The point is, many students will accept, but the parents will delay sending the check until they absolutely have to. If things are really bad in July and it doens't look like they can afford it, they'll back out.

What I expect to happen is high merit students will stay at elite colleges, as will those getting huge amounts of financial aid. But those who are middle or lower class will likely have their kids drop down a notch. For some that mean UC Irvine instead of Cornell, or Cal State Fullerton instead of UC Davis. Or Community college instead of San Diego State or San Jose State. And still others will have to work to support their family when their parents lose their jobs.

For the first time in a long time, value may trump prestige for college choice.

This.

I think that in the end, this actually will favor most of the Big State U's and Second State U's.

Directional State U's will still be hurt because they don't provide the quality and they're still usually the same price as Second State U.

Private schools will be hurt because of their price tag.

Private liberal arts schools will be hurt the most because the only advantage they offer (the small-scale social environment and having a personal relationship with your professor) is being taken away. Private schools that don't have a strong science or engineering or pharmacy program are in real danger.

Is this the price we have to pay for being so sick of winning?

On another note, I noticed more people not wearing mask and gloves this past weekend as the weekend before. Did I miss something?

(04-20-2020 07:34 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(04-19-2020 07:59 PM)bullet Wrote:  https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/educ...157756002/
Students are unhappy and nobody has made any decisions.

Earth to Students ... we're all unhappy, it's a pandemic.

But they are consumers still paying full price for lesser service.

(04-20-2020 08:49 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(04-20-2020 07:34 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(04-19-2020 07:59 PM)bullet Wrote:  https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/educ...157756002/
Students are unhappy and nobody has made any decisions.

Earth to Students ... we're all unhappy, it's a pandemic.

But they are consumers still paying full price for lesser service.

Many are being affected far worse than that.

(04-20-2020 09:23 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(04-20-2020 08:49 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(04-20-2020 07:34 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(04-19-2020 07:59 PM)bullet Wrote:  https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/educ...157756002/
Students are unhappy and nobody has made any decisions.

Earth to Students ... we're all unhappy, it's a pandemic.

But they are consumers still paying full price for lesser service.

Many are being affected far worse than that.

But they aren't paying for the privilege. The vast majority of companies are trying to improve service to customers. Education is reducing it and still charging full price.

(04-20-2020 11:24 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(04-20-2020 09:23 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(04-20-2020 08:49 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(04-20-2020 07:34 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(04-19-2020 07:59 PM)bullet Wrote:  https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/educ...157756002/
Students are unhappy and nobody has made any decisions.

Earth to Students ... we're all unhappy, it's a pandemic.

But they are consumers still paying full price for lesser service.

Many are being affected far worse than that.

But they aren't paying for the privilege. The vast majority of companies are trying to improve service to customers. Education is reducing it and still charging full price.

But ... as if that's a big deal? My brother has stage 4 cancer, he's not paying for the privilege while I am paying more for my internet connection and getting less. Using your logic I'm the one with a complaint.

And education isn't 'reducing it' as it is not their choice, it is the governmental authorities that have closed the campuses that is doing so. As for paying full price, the university's costs don't go down just because classes are moved online.

(04-20-2020 08:49 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(04-20-2020 07:34 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(04-19-2020 07:59 PM)bullet Wrote:  https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/educ...157756002/
Students are unhappy and nobody has made any decisions.

Earth to Students ... we're all unhappy, it's a pandemic.

But they are consumers still paying full price for lesser service.

Some of them go just so that they can party which they are not serious on getting educated.