I think the largest problem here in an amicable realignment of C-USA and SunBelt schools is that both of the arguably top brands in each conference currently reside in the east (App St and Marshall). Split down geographic lines consensus seems to be an eastern-based C-USA stretching north to south from West Virginia (Marshall) to Florida (F_Us) and a western-based SunBelt, anchored in Texas and expanding north and east from there. The problem with this again is that the SunBelt wouldn't want to lose its current largest and recently most successful program (App St) and all this would do is make C-USA stronger (where is the incentive for the SunBelt to do this when they are already trending upwards and likely to have greater success than C-USA moving forward while also in a smaller footprint?)
The only way something like this could happen is if individual schools got together to form their own new conference being composed of current SunBelt and C-USA members. Many have suggested here and on other threads that Marshall and App St might want to be in a conference together, so I think those two would have to be the catalyst to form a new regional conference. And example of this new conference might look like this...
Marshall
App St
JMU
ODU
Charlotte
WKU
MTSU
Coastal Carolina
Georgia St
Georgia Southern
UAB
Southern Miss
+FAU & FIU (if so desired to keep a foothold in Florida)
That 14 team conference would make for regional flair for App St and Marshall. Would create a new rival for Marshall in App St, while also providing closer regional rivals such as JMU. App St would get additional regional rivals in Charlotte and ODU while still maintaining their rivalry with Georgia Southern. Up and comer and big market in Georgia St. Also including some traditional brands and history for Marshall with UAB and Southern Miss. Finally, the F_Us to allow for Florida recruiting and market.
Following this creation of a new conference, I would expect to see an actual merger of C-USA and the SunBelt to look like the following...
UTEP
NMSU
UTSA
Rice
Texas St
North Texas
Arkansas St
LA Tech
ULM
ULL
Troy
South Alabama
This 12 team conference looks much like the SunBelt of a few years ago, but with some added flair of UTEP and NMSU being together as a travel pair (and most importantly a conference home for NMSU). UTSA and Texas St could make for a good rivalry, also with UNT in the mix. LA Tech would not be happy with this arrangement but without any other conference available they would likely have to join (those LA Tech vs ULL games will be heated). Troy vs USA is the makings of a good rivalry as well.
To me this is the most logical way to reorganize as it simply can't be done under the current two conferences the way they are now. Not enough teams could defect from C-USA to Sun Belt to make any real difference, plus there is this view that C-USA is still superior to the SunBelt. SunBelt is very strong now and C-USA doesn't have any room to absorb any defectors. In short I'm not sure any conference can really poach from the other. With only 10 members the SunBelt has room to poach Marshall and 3 others, but would it be enough to appease Marshall? Sure there is no travel to UTEP but San Marcos is no walk in the park either. Is App St alone enough to entice them? How tied are they to the Florida market (having been in C-USA with Florida schools since 2005). Would they poach 1 or both of FAU/FIU in addition to Marshall? Who would the 4th team be? UAB? Southern Miss? ODU? Charlotte?
My above realignment to me seems to make the most sense, but a disaster for C-USA and the SunBelt as individual conferences. As many have said, geographic realignment of these two conferences needs to happen, and I think this would work out well for most parties involved. It would also create a clear-cut #3 G5 after AAC/MWC in the eyes of most, centered around Marshall and App St.
EDIT TO ORIGINAL POST:
Upon further research into who Troy and Southern Miss's real rivals are though.... I have decided it would be better to swap Southern Miss and Troy as opposed to what I posted originally.
Troy has a long-standing rivalry with MTSU, and their proximity to UAB would be an instant rivalry.
Southern Miss historically has a rivalry with LA Tech and would also be in close proximity to ULM, ULL, and could form a rivalry with Arkansas St as well. Not to mention being virtually next door to South Alabama in Mobile.
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The only way I think a large C-USA / SunBelt Realignment can happen
