In the 70's and 80's, there was an explosion of new D1 conferences.

In the 90's, it slowed down quite a bit: (1) merger of the American South and Sun Belt; (2) Metro/Great Midwest split; (3) Dissolution of Big 8 and SWC and emergence of Big 12; (4) merger of Metro and Great Midwest into C-USA; and (5) the WAC/MWC split. That was it.

In the two decades since, only one new conference besides the short-lived Great West has emerged: the AAC or the Big East, whichever one you want to call "new." That's a topic for another day.

So could there be another league emerges in the next decade-plus, most likely from a split?

Some ideas:

C-USA. Mix in some SB or FCS teams and then divide. They're already tied for the second largest D1 conference at 14

A-10. Stronger basketball schools split off, picking up maybe a Siena or something.

Southland. They're at 13 and counting.

ASUN. The commissioner already has a plan. It's foolproof!

And here's an outlandish one for 18-20 years from now, after the GOR expires: the ACC. At 15, they're already almost big enough to be two leagues. They're going to be tens of millions behind other P conferences per year. Some faction could be looking for a Plan B.

In 18-20 years, the ACC ought to be able to come up with Plans B through G.

If any ACC schools are still in demand by the Big Ten and/or the SEC once the GOR expires, the ACC won't need to split into two conferences.

(07-03-2020 02:00 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  In 18-20 years, the ACC ought to be able to come up with Plans B through G.

Good point.

If I had to come up with a list of conferences that I thought were geographically unwieldy and/or oversized:

A-10
CAA
C-USA
SBC
Southland

Some new alignments:

America East: Maine, UNH, Vermont, UMass, UMass-Lowell, URI, Northeastern, Hartford, Hofstra, Stony Brook, Albany, Binghampton

Dayton and St Louis to the Big East

A-10: Fordham, NJIT, St Bonaventure, LaSalle, St Joseph’s, Drexel, Delaware, UMBC, Towson, Duquesne

CAA: G Washington, G Mason, Richmond, VCU, William & Mary, JMU, Elon, UNCW, Davidson, C of Charleston

(07-03-2020 10:37 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  If I had to come up with a list of conferences that I thought were geographically unwieldy and/or oversized:

A-10
CAA
C-USA
SBC
Southland

Some new alignments:

America East: Maine, UNH, Vermont, UMass, UMass-Lowell, URI, Northeastern, Hartford, Hofstra, Stony Brook, Albany, Binghampton

Dayton and St Louis to the Big East

A-10: Fordham, NJIT, St Bonaventure, LaSalle, St Joseph’s, Drexel, Delaware, UMBC, Towson, Duquesne

CAA: G Washington, G Mason, Richmond, VCU, William & Mary, JMU, Elon, UNCW, Davidson, C of Charleston

No way Dayton AND St. Louis go to the Big East. Maybe one of them, but even that seems unlikely with UConn giving them a 20-game round-robin.

The A-10 is unwieldy but it works because it gets multiple bids every season. You separate by geography, you get three weaker leagues out of it. Do VCU and Richmond want to trade Dayton/St. Louis/Rhode Island for Elon/Wiliam & Mary/JMU? Does Rhode Island want to say goodbye to the Virginia schools and Davidson for the sake of a conference in which their only consistent challenger will be Vermont?

If the A-10 becomes a one-bid league like CUSA and stays that way, I could see some unhappy schools thinking about moves. But as long as they're in the conversation for at-larges consistently, I just don't see it.

It is a very poor fit for St. Louis to be in the Atlantic 10. They are a private and must have/spend a lot of money on travel. A whole truckload. Maybe they own their own plane. They should go to the MVC-- IMO. If the MVC added St. Louis AND Murray St. to go to twelve-- wow! They would rate equal or better than the Atlantic 10 most years.

I don't think the Sunbelt is too unwieldy. Idaho and New Mexico State are gone.. We are down to 10 football members, we play all teams but one in football. Sunbelt footprint is smaller and has a higher payout per team vs CUSA.

(07-02-2020 11:15 PM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  And here's an outlandish one for 18-20 years from now, after the GOR expires: the ACC. At 15, they're already almost big enough to be two leagues. They're going to be tens of millions behind other P conferences per year. Some faction could be looking for a Plan B.

Not outlandish, and sooner than we might think. Let's be honest: BC, Pitt and Syracuse have not met expectations and were they to leave, would not be missed.

Going back to my OP, what I was trying to highlight is that in the 70's, there were quite a few new conferences. In the 80's it slowed down a bit.

These were conferences that formed in the 1970's: America East, A-10, ASUN, Big East, CAA, Horizon, Metro, MEAC, and Sun Belt.

These formed in the 1980's: Ameican South, Big South, MAAC, NEC, Patriot, and Summit

As I said in my OP, the 90's saw a net decrease of one D1 conference from the 80's:
- Merger of Am. South and Sun Belt
- Metro/Great Midwest split, which reunited later to become C-USA
- Dissolution of Big Eight and SWC and creation of Big 12
- Split off of MW from WAC

The only additional conference in the more than 20 years since the formation of the Mountain West in 1999 has been the result of the Big East/AAC split. This despite more and more schools being added to D1 every year. Instead of new conferences forming, the average size just gets bigger and bigger.

It just seems like there is bound to be a split somewhere within D1 for a 33rd conference.

The MEAC is on the brink of falling off the list.

(07-03-2020 02:16 PM)TOPSTRAIGHT Wrote:  It is a very poor fit for St. Louis to be in the Atlantic 10. They are a private and must have/spend a lot of money on travel. A whole truckload. Maybe they own their own plane. They should go to the MVC-- IMO. If the MVC added St. Louis AND Murray St. to go to twelve-- wow! They would rate equal or better than the Atlantic 10 most years.

The geography for Saint Louis in the A10 is not ideal. But SLU is a Catholic school and the A10 has six other such universities. The Missouri Valley (a fine league, no doubt) has only one: Loyola (Chicago).

I do agree that if the MVC landed SLU and Murray ... strong.

But I don't see SLU leaving the A10 for the MVC, in part, due to the Catholic factor noted above.

(07-03-2020 10:04 PM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  Going back to my OP, what I was trying to highlight is that in the 70's, there were quite a few new conferences. In the 80's it slowed down a bit. ...

... It just seems like there is bound to be a split somewhere within D1 for a 33rd conference.

Of course, due to the explosion in media value of the NCAA tourney, there has been a shift of rules toward suppressing the formation of new conferences.

(07-04-2020 07:34 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(07-03-2020 10:04 PM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  Going back to my OP, what I was trying to highlight is that in the 70's, there were quite a few new conferences. In the 80's it slowed down a bit. ...

... It just seems like there is bound to be a split somewhere within D1 for a 33rd conference.

Of course, due to the explosion in media value of the NCAA tourney, there has been a shift of rules toward suppressing the formation of new conferences.

That's interesting. Could you elaborate?

(07-04-2020 08:58 AM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  

(07-04-2020 07:34 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(07-03-2020 10:04 PM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  Going back to my OP, what I was trying to highlight is that in the 70's, there were quite a few new conferences. In the 80's it slowed down a bit. ...

... It just seems like there is bound to be a split somewhere within D1 for a 33rd conference.

Of course, due to the explosion in media value of the NCAA tourney, there has been a shift of rules toward suppressing the formation of new conferences.

That's interesting. Could you elaborate?

This is the change in the continuity rule. Before, to establish continuity, you needed to have seven schools that had played together for a certain number of years. That was the basis for the MWC breakaway. Under the old rule, the WAC would have lost their bid to the NCAA tourney, until the new members had played together in the WAC for long enough to re-establish continuity.

So they changed the continuity rule for a multi-sport conference to be a conference running an NCAA competition in a sport satisfying all of the autobid requirements for eight years. And for the kinds of conferences that rely on the NCAA autobid as their only regular ticket to the big dance, having to wait eight years for the ticket to be punched is a big discouragement from breaking away from the conference you are in, unless you get an invitation to step up into a conference you would rather be in.

Since then, the new conference that was formed was when the Catholic Seven from the old Big East exercised the conference by-law allowing them to leave as a group, to form the new Big East. Evidently the NCAA granted their petition to have the eight year waiting period waived. Presumably the basis of the petition was that they left under an arrangement that was created under the old rule, so they ought to be grand-fathered in, but in any event, since nobody expected any at-large bids to be lost by the existing big money conferences as a result of the new Big East having an autobid for their tournament champion, it doesn't seem like anybody fought hard against the petition.

But the big money conferences have for years fought to hold onto their at-large bids, and it doesn't seem likely it was a coincidence that the rule change that "saved the WAC" was also one that discourages groups of schools that have played together for a while in the same conference from breaking away to form a new conference.

(07-04-2020 10:18 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  This is the change in the continuity rule. Before, to establish continuity, you needed to have seven schools that had played together for a certain number of years. That was the basis for the MWC breakaway. Under the old rule, the WAC would have lost their bid to the NCAA tourney, until the new members had played together in the WAC for long enough to re-establish continuity.

So they changed the continuity rule for a multi-sport conference to be a conference running an NCAA competition in a sport satisfying all of the autobid requirements for eight years. And for the kinds of conferences that rely on the NCAA autobid as their only regular ticket to the big dance, having to wait eight years for the ticket to be punched is a big discouragement from breaking away from the conference you are in, unless you get an invitation to step up into a conference you would rather be in.

Since then, the new conference that was formed was when the Catholic Seven from the old Big East exercised the conference by-law allowing them to leave as a group, to form the new Big East. Evidently the NCAA granted their petition to have the eight year waiting period waived. Presumably the basis of the petition was that they left under an arrangement that was created under the old rule, so they ought to be grand-fathered in, but in any event, since nobody expected any at-large bids to be lost by the existing big money conferences as a result of the new Big East having an autobid for their tournament champion, it doesn't seem like anybody fought hard against the petition.

But the big money conferences have for years fought to hold onto their at-large bids, and it doesn't seem likely it was a coincidence that the rule change that "saved the WAC" was also one that discourages groups of schools that have played together for a while in the same conference from breaking away to form a new conference.

Thanks for the response.

If a group of schools want to form a new, 33rd conference at some point, like what happened with the AAC/Big East split, based on what you said, they would clearly have to apply for a waiver.

Maybe, as a compromise to the pushback that a new automatic bid would take away an at-large bid, the new league could also propose n expansion of the basketball tournament to 69. That is exactly what was done at the advent of the MW. There was an expansion from 64 teams to 65 in the Tornament so that the number of at-large berths could be preserved.

... I don't know how successful such a proposal would be, but it would be worth trying.

(07-04-2020 11:19 AM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  

(07-04-2020 10:18 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  This is the change in the continuity rule. Before, to establish continuity, you needed to have seven schools that had played together for a certain number of years. That was the basis for the MWC breakaway. Under the old rule, the WAC would have lost their bid to the NCAA tourney, until the new members had played together in the WAC for long enough to re-establish continuity.

So they changed the continuity rule for a multi-sport conference to be a conference running an NCAA competition in a sport satisfying all of the autobid requirements for eight years. And for the kinds of conferences that rely on the NCAA autobid as their only regular ticket to the big dance, having to wait eight years for the ticket to be punched is a big discouragement from breaking away from the conference you are in, unless you get an invitation to step up into a conference you would rather be in.

Since then, the new conference that was formed was when the Catholic Seven from the old Big East exercised the conference by-law allowing them to leave as a group, to form the new Big East. Evidently the NCAA granted their petition to have the eight year waiting period waived. Presumably the basis of the petition was that they left under an arrangement that was created under the old rule, so they ought to be grand-fathered in, but in any event, since nobody expected any at-large bids to be lost by the existing big money conferences as a result of the new Big East having an autobid for their tournament champion, it doesn't seem like anybody fought hard against the petition.

But the big money conferences have for years fought to hold onto their at-large bids, and it doesn't seem likely it was a coincidence that the rule change that "saved the WAC" was also one that discourages groups of schools that have played together for a while in the same conference from breaking away to form a new conference.

Thanks for the response.

If a group of schools want to form a new, 33rd conference at some point, like what happened with the AAC/Big East split, based on what you said, they would clearly have to apply for a waiver.

Maybe, as a compromise to the pushback that a new automatic bid would take away an at-large bid, the new league could also propose n expansion of the basketball tournament to 69. That is exactly what was done at the advent of the MW. There was an expansion from 64 teams to 65 in the Tornament so that the number of at-large berths could be preserved.

... I don't know how successful such a proposal would be, but it would be worth trying.

Expect expansion to 72. ACC proposed a second First Four site out west but was shot down. They’d just revive that plan with a 33rd conference.

I could see that the Hybrid conferences could split and the football schools all be in one conferences.

CAA moving the non-football to other conferences.
Delaware
Elon
JMU
Towson
William and Mary
Albany
Maine
New Hampshire
URI
Richmond
Stony Brook

I could see Villanova as an affiliate to Patriot.
Central Conn. State will be number 12. If Richmond decides to be an affiliate to Patriot as well? Youngstown State goes there.
If Elon goes back to Southern? Eastern Kentucky goes here.

Albany
Central Conn. State
Delaware
Eastern Kentucky
JMU
Maine
New Hampshire
URI
Stony Brook
Towson
William and Mary
Youngstown State

[quote='DavidSt' pid='16890009' dateline='1593901113']
I could see that the Hybrid conferences could split and the football schools all be in one conferences.

CAA moving the non-football to other conferences.
Delaware
Elon
JMU
Towson
William and Mary
Albany
Maine
New Hampshire
URI
Richmond
Stony Brook

I could see Villanova as an affiliate to Patriot.
Central Conn. State will be number 12. If Richmond decides to be an affiliate to Patriot as well? Youngstown State goes there.
If Elon goes back to Southern? Eastern Kentucky goes here.

Albany
Central Conn. State
Delaware
Eastern Kentucky
JMU
Maine
New Hampshire
URI
Stony Brook
Towson
William and Mary
Youngstown State
[/quote

Unless the Power 5 and NCAA will be covering the travel costs, neither of these arrangements makes the slightest amount of sense.

(07-04-2020 11:45 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  Expect expansion to 72. ACC proposed a second First Four site out west but was shot down. They’d just revive that plan with a 33rd conference.

Quite ... two first-fours means eight conferences slotted into play-in games and eight at-large bids for play-in spots, so a "last eight in" rather than a "last four in" in all of the bubble analyses ... and of course waters down the NIT even further, if it is maintained in the first place.

That translates the lemon of another spot taken by a single-bid conference into the lemonade of demoting three more existing single-bid conferences to the play-in tournament(s), effectively freeing up one more full at-large bid and opening up several additional play-in at-large spots. The pushback there is more a consequence of the media partners, who aren't going to pay as much per game for the play-in games as for the main tourney games, so the earnings available on a "per appearance" basis are likely to be a modest amount lower ... but there's no such thing as a free lunch. There are always tradeoffs.

First, however, the new conference has to get a bid. It is not at all clear that a new conference expected to be an autobid-only conference in most years is going to get a waiver of the current continuity rule.