(12-10-2020 04:28 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(12-10-2020 04:02 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  I just want to see Notre Dame win the whole thing because I like the fact that Irish coach Brian Kelly bears a striking resemblance to Dropkick Murphys bassist/co-lead vocalist Ken Casey.

There's nobody I want to see win it. Maybe the title game will be covid'd out.

Alabama, Clemson and Ohio St. have become boring. Notre Dame, A&M and Florida I don't want to win it.

Iowa St. or Cincinnati? Don't think there is any reasonable way they get there.
Alabama would have to beat Florida. And also two out of Clemson getting destroyed by Notre Dame, Ohio St. to losing to Northwestern and A&M losing this week to Arkansas. Alabama winning is likely. The other 3 are each unlikely, so 2 out of 3 not going to happen.

You don't have to worry about Florida anymore.

Bama, ND, and NWU wins should put UC in. The question becomes who is 4 if A&M is somehow upset? Do you take NWU? OU? I can’t see USC leap frogging all those schools. I’d probably take NWU but that’s a less than 1% scenario.

(12-13-2020 10:08 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  Bama, ND, and NWU wins should put UC in. The question becomes who is 4 if A&M is somehow upset? Do you take NWU? OU? I can’t see USC leap frogging all those schools. I’d probably take NWU but that’s a less than 1% scenario.

Alabama, Notre Dame, Northwestern, and Oklahoma have to win to put Cincinnati in. I could see the committee putting in Alabama, Notre Dame, Texas A&M, and Iowa State but I agree Cincinnati should be in over Iowa State.

(12-13-2020 09:46 AM)TerryD Wrote:  

(12-10-2020 04:02 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  I just want to see Notre Dame win the whole thing because I like the fact that Irish coach Brian Kelly bears a striking resemblance to Dropkick Murphys bassist/co-lead vocalist Ken Casey.

That works for me.

Alabama and Notre Dame are almost certainly in with Florida's loss. A&M doesn't have anything to compare to Notre Dame's win over Clemson and they got destroyed by Alabama.

Ohio St. and Clemson are in with wins. Ohio St. is definitely out with a loss. Clemson probably out with a loss.

A&M is in with a win over Ole Miss and one of Ohio St./Clemson losing.

Iowa St./Oklahoma winner is in with two out of: Ohio St. losing, Clemson losing convincingly and A&M losing to Ole Miss<edit-Tennessee is the game they are making up, not Ole Miss> along with Alabama beating Florida.

Florida needs the same two out of 3 losing.

Cincinnati's only hope is all 3, Ohio St., Clemson and A&M losing, with Alabama winning.

(12-10-2020 03:20 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  

(12-10-2020 03:05 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(12-10-2020 02:05 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  Why is 2-2 against ranked teams better than 1-1 (like BYU, Louisiana, or Indiana)? And why is it better than 2-0 (like Coastal Carolina)?

Also, why is 0-0 (Cincy) ranked ahead of 2-0 (Coastal)?

What happened to your Wizard of Oz ranking system you touted last season so much?
#5 UC
#14 CC

This season you seem to be posting Sagarin.
https://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

Using the Sagarin SOS ranking metric Cincinnati is #88 and CC is #107. Rating the conferences, Sagarin has the American #10, the Sun Belt East #11 and the Sun Belt West #18. From an "eye test"perspective the American doesn't have another team highly ranked in the CFP outside of Cincinnati but the Sagarin numbers show our conference is still rated the highest of the non-P5. We can debate and analyze in perpetuity but the CFP committee has shown that it values Cincinnati and the strength of the American Conference over the other non-P5 conferences. We're also the conference that has secured the NY6 bid the past three years in a row and 4 of 6 since the format began in 2014. So, there is some history with the American's perception and performance relating to the CFP.

Should Tulsa win, it will be interesting to see if Coastal Carolina gets it or Tulsa does. Probably Coastal Carolina, but this weeks performance didn't help them. ULL vs. Tulsa will be close. Don't think Buffalo, San Jose, Boise, Marshall or UAB have a chance.

Went ahead and compiled our predictions in one post. I'm sure it'll change. We all have A&M as the 1st team in if OSU/Clemson is upset. After that we are all over the place. Here are our thoughts:

Crayton
Cincinnati, Florida, OU/ISU

BePcr07
Iowa State, Cincinnati, Florida, Clemson

RUScarlets
Cincinnati, Northwestern, USC

Carolina_Low_Country
Iowa State, Cincinnati (though committee would have it in wrong order)

bullet
OU/ISU, Florida, Cincinnati

Fighting Muskie added
Cincinnati, USC, OU/ISU

ESPN FPI, for reference
Texas A&M, Cincinnati, Northwestern, Indiana
USC jumped A&M (...and 1-loss Clemson & Notre Dame)

Barring a totally embarrassing blowout, Alabama and Notre Dame are safely in the playoff.

Ohio St and Clemson are both in with wins.

So if Alabama, Clemson, and Ohio St win their CCG’s, the field is set.

ND winning the ACC and/or Ohio St losing the Big Ten opens things wide up.

I think it will hard to justify a 2-loss Big 12 champ in the field. That leaves TAMU, Cincinnati, and new darling USC.

(12-13-2020 10:32 AM)Carolina_Low_Country Wrote:  

(12-13-2020 10:08 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  Bama, ND, and NWU wins should put UC in. The question becomes who is 4 if A&M is somehow upset? Do you take NWU? OU? I can’t see USC leap frogging all those schools. I’d probably take NWU but that’s a less than 1% scenario.

Alabama, Notre Dame, Northwestern, and Oklahoma have to win to put Cincinnati in. I could see the committee putting in Alabama, Notre Dame, Texas A&M, and Iowa State but I agree Cincinnati should be in over Iowa State.

Iowa State not getting in in that scenario barring 59-0 type of win. UC would be in.

(12-10-2020 12:18 AM)andy98 Wrote:  What if.....

Clemson beats Notre Dame in the ACC title game.
Florida beats Alabama in the SEC championships game.
Texas A&M wins out.
Ohio State goes undefeated.
Oregon goes undefeated.
Cincinnati goes undefeated.

Which four teams make the playoff?

If Alabama and/or Notre Dame lose, it will all depend on how they lose. Lose close? In the playoffs. Get blown out? Out of the playoffs.

In your scenario, the *only* thing I know for sure is .... Clemson and Ohio State are in.

(12-13-2020 11:28 AM)bullet Wrote:  Should Tulsa win, it will be interesting to see if Coastal Carolina gets it or Tulsa does. Probably Coastal Carolina, but this weeks performance didn't help them. ULL vs. Tulsa will be close. Don't think Buffalo, San Jose, Boise, Marshall or UAB have a chance.

If Tulsa beats Cincy and Coastal wins as well, Coastal will get the NY6 bid with 100% certainty. Mark my words.

Heck, Coastal *should* be ranked ahead of Cincy right now. They moved up two spots in the AP and one in the Coaches poll, so their performance yesterday - winning an 11th game while Cincy sat home for a third straight week stuck on 8 games - didn't seem to hurt them.

(12-13-2020 04:33 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(12-13-2020 11:28 AM)bullet Wrote:  Should Tulsa win, it will be interesting to see if Coastal Carolina gets it or Tulsa does. Probably Coastal Carolina, but this weeks performance didn't help them. ULL vs. Tulsa will be close. Don't think Buffalo, San Jose, Boise, Marshall or UAB have a chance.

Huh? If Tulsa beats Cincy and Coastal wins as well, Coastal will get the NY6 bid with 100% certainty. Mark my words.

Heck, Coastal *should* be ranked ahead of Cincy right now. They moved up two spots in the AP and one in the Coaches poll, so their performance yesterday - winning an 11th game while Cincy sat home for a third straight week stuck on 8 games - didn't seem to hurt them.

And, Louisiana should be in over Tulsa if they upset Coastal Carolina.

(12-13-2020 04:47 PM)leofrog Wrote:  

(12-13-2020 04:33 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(12-13-2020 11:28 AM)bullet Wrote:  Should Tulsa win, it will be interesting to see if Coastal Carolina gets it or Tulsa does. Probably Coastal Carolina, but this weeks performance didn't help them. ULL vs. Tulsa will be close. Don't think Buffalo, San Jose, Boise, Marshall or UAB have a chance.

Huh? If Tulsa beats Cincy and Coastal wins as well, Coastal will get the NY6 bid with 100% certainty. Mark my words.

Heck, Coastal *should* be ranked ahead of Cincy right now. They moved up two spots in the AP and one in the Coaches poll, so their performance yesterday - winning an 11th game while Cincy sat home for a third straight week stuck on 8 games - didn't seem to hurt them.

And, Louisiana should be in over Tulsa if they upset Coastal Carolina.

Good point.

(12-13-2020 03:12 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Barring a totally embarrassing blowout, Alabama and Notre Dame are safely in the playoff.

Ohio St and Clemson are both in with wins.

So if Alabama, Clemson, and Ohio St win their CCG’s, the field is set.

ND winning the ACC and/or Ohio St losing the Big Ten opens things wide up.

I think it will hard to justify a 2-loss Big 12 champ in the field. That leaves TAMU, Cincinnati, and new darling USC.

Don't think USC is a darling to the committee.
Arizona St. (1-2) 28-27
@Arizona (0-5) 34-30
@Utah (2-2) 33-17
Washington St. (1-2) 38-13
UCLA (3-3) 43-38

They didn't play any of the other 4 teams in the league with a winning record and they won 3 coming from behind at the very end.

Little change in the rankings. They only dropped Florida one spot and had Georgia jump Cincinnati, pushing them down to #9. Guess they want to make sure chaos doesn't put Cincinnati in the top 4.

USC hopped NW to move to 13 and UNC hopped Iowa to move to 15 while Miami dropped 8 to #18. CU stayed ranked, dropping 4 spots to #25. Missouri dropped out. San Jose jumped in at #24.

(12-15-2020 07:35 PM)bullet Wrote:  Little change in the rankings. They only dropped Florida one spot and had Georgia jump Cincinnati, pushing them down to #9. Guess they want to make sure chaos doesn't put Cincinnati in the top 4.

USC hopped NW to move to 13 and UNC hopped Iowa to move to 15 while Miami dropped 8 to #18. CU stayed ranked, dropping 4 spots to #25. Missouri dropped out. San Jose jumped in at #24.

Good to see San Jose be ranked. Thought Florida should have dropped to #11 or #12. Other than that, no real issues with the rankings, given that they long ago decided that Cincy was better than Coastal and that was that.

Ok, so I'm going to update my playoff chaos scenario. What if....

Florida beats Alabama
Clemson beats Notre Dame
Northwestern beats Ohio State
Texas A&M beats Tennessee
Oklahoma beats Iowa State
USC goes undefeated
Cincinnati goes undefeated
Coastal Carolina goes undefeated
San Jose State goes undefeated
Buffalo goes undefeated

Which four teams go to the playoff?

(12-16-2020 06:35 AM)andy98 Wrote:  Ok, so I'm going to update my playoff chaos scenario. What if....

Florida beats Alabama
Clemson beats Notre Dame
Northwestern beats Ohio State
Texas A&M beats Tennessee
Oklahoma beats Iowa State
USC goes undefeated
Cincinnati goes undefeated
Coastal Carolina goes undefeated
San Jose State goes undefeated
Buffalo goes undefeated

Which four teams go to the playoff?

Clemson
ND
Bama
A&M

The more intriguing scenario is A&M losing as well, but in the more probable scenario of say Clemson losing OR OSU losing, A&M appears to have the inside track. However, ISU is actually in a position to pull a 2014 OSU and vault from 6 to 4. Can they beat OU by three or four scores? We’ve seen crazier things before, but that’s how it’s been set up. A&M should have scheduled UGa or someone comparable. AAC and Aresco should have suspended the AAC CCG and given UC a worthwhile opponent this week. Now ISU may have a shot with two losses if Clemson and OSU fall out.