(01-05-2021 01:53 AM)BePcr07 Wrote: It’s no secret the SEC has gone off and made boatloads of money recently. In fact, now there are only about 5 schools that would even be worth adding to the SEC, financially speaking. Surely the B1G is feeling this somewhere.
Where does this leave the B1G? The B1G seems to have an academic constraint when considering new members that the SEC does not which really limits the options. If Texas insisted on Texas Tech, that seems like a deal breaker for the B1G but the SEC may be okay with it.
My questions are:
1) Does the B1G have any sort of game plan or desired outcome over the next 10-20 years as the XII and ACC contracts expire? What do the schools want and what has the conference said?
2) Does the AAU requirement (I’m unsure whether it’s memorialized anywhere) harm or help the conference? How much leeway is there really?
3) Does the B1G really consider itself in the running for Oklahoma and Texas when the XII contract expires? Will the conference make another play for Notre Dame? Or does the conference, as a whole, even care?
4) What do you, the fans, want? Does this align with the stated (or unstated) desires of the schools and conference?
5) What can we reasonably expect to happen?
1. As others have said, I'm sure the Big Ten has a "plan" but nothing has been said publicly. That would be a real PR issue if they named specific schools or even states/regions that they wanted to expand to. Remember the backlash when they mentioned they were going to expand to 12? Then there was NOTHING until it felt like the invitations to Maryland and Rutgers were out of nowhere. Due to the fact that there are only so many acceptable choices, I think the candidates are more obvious this round and they will be flirting with multiple conferences so it will be more like Nebraska's invitation than Maryland and Rutgers.
2. I think the AAU is a guideline more than a hard rule. The Big Ten members essentially voted Nebraska into the conference and simultaneously voted them out of the AAU. The top priority would be for the conference to make money and they won't add anyone who doesn't. Likewise, they have a certain threshold that must be met academically or else a school won't get a look and AAU isn't a requirement but looks sexy.
3. I think the Big Ten considers itself in the running for whoever it wants. We saw how important and influential they believe they are when they tried to cancel fall football and expected everyone to follow their lead. I think that hurt the conference more than anything. Notre Dame, Texas, and Oklahoma, the three expected main targets for everyone all played football from the start and could see how the Big Ten was quick to cancel. How can they not expect the Big Ten to do that in the future and would they want to be in a conference like that? If the Big Ten got its way, I think they would add Notre Dame and Texas and be done. I think the Big Ten thinks that Notre Dame joining is just a matter of time (I agree for the most part but I'll explain my reasoning in another post since this isn't about them). I don't think the Big Ten is as hot on Oklahoma as we are, but I do think they'd accept them but would likely need a strong academic partner to come with them for cover.
4. Personally, I would add as many of Texas, Notre Dame, and Oklahoma as I could without any tag alongs. Even getting one and staying at 15 would be great for me instead of adding a 16th school that we'd rather not have. If we somehow got one and went to 15, I think the conference should vote to deregulate the conference championship games like the ACC wanted so we could do three divisions of 5 or a divisionless structure that has 3 fixed opponents per year.
Personally, I think Oklahoma is the best combination of likely and useful to the conference and would be the best add if we could only get one. They make Nebraska feel more at home in the conference which I think has been a real struggle since they were added. It opens the conference up to Texas (the state) more which adds a strong recruiting territory that the conference needs. They are also a national brand that will significantly increase the payouts of media deals and ticket sales. I think Oklahoma would find annual games against Nebraska, Iowa and likely some combination of Wisconsin, Minnesota, and the Illinois schools to be similar to much of what they have now.
What I don't want is for a group of northeast schools which sounds crazy as a Penn State fan but they don't do anything for me. Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Boston College, UConn, etc. don't have good football programs (and some aren't good basketball either), don't have good recruiting areas which would give the conference a competitive boost, and don't improve the media payout. Another thing that I would hate is for the conference to add two eastern schools (for example, Virginia and North Carolina) and we go to four pods of four and one pod is the two newbies plus Maryland and Rutgers. PSU would get less games against Maryland and Rutgers, the #1 and #4 Big Ten opponents they've played all-time plus two prime areas that Penn State recruits athletes and students.
The conference goals need to be adding an elite football brand (or more), expanding into better recruiting areas to benefit existing members, new member(s) should have
I have no idea what the conference wants to do besides land Notre Dame and Texas.
5. I don't have a clue what is reasonable. Would it surprise me if Texas and Oklahoma plus others leave the Big 12? Not really. It wouldn't really surprise me if nothing happened either.
My reasonable expectation is nothing will happen in the 2024 time period where the Big Ten, Big 12, etc. all need new contracts. I think Texas doesn't want to move away from the Big 12 and is fine making close to the same amount of money as the Big Ten and SEC due to their third tier rights. The Big 12 will get a new deal that keeps them solidly in third place in the P5 structure and will put the ACC and Pac-12 in a bind by being so far behind financially in the hopes of making them unstable.
If a move is made, I think Texas and Kansas to the SEC and Oklahoma to the Big Ten makes the most sense with the Big Ten holding out for Notre Dame once their grant of rights are up in 2037 or so. Kansas pairs well with Missouri and adds a desperately needed basketball program and poor football to the SEC while Texas reunites with Texas A&M and Arkansas, a better group than the Big Ten can potentially provide without adding too many more. Oklahoma makes Nebraska more comfortable while OU will feel like Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota will remind them of the Big 8. Notre Dame won't pass up the money allure of the Big Ten and get comfortable playing northeast-adjacent Penn State, Rutgers, and Maryland, national brands of Ohio State, Oklahoma, and Nebraska, and classic rivals of Michigan, Michigan State and Purdue. Until Notre Dame can free itself from the ACC GoR, the conference will push to deregulate conference championships which they previously opposed. The AAC with 11 members will want to approve it as well. If Notre Dame doesn't join, I think the Big Ten stays at 15 as they don't want to add just to add.