(04-24-2021 04:26 PM)ChrisLords Wrote: For Playoff expansion, you can never expand too slowly. You need to get paid for each incremental step.
I think one problem with college expansion is that many around here (not saying you, btw) seem to think college football expansion is like pro sports expansion, where basically it goes without saying that the networks want more playoff games and will pay accordingly.
But the reason that's true for the NFL or MLB or whatever is that the public views all the teams as basically equals. I mean sure, some teams have more glamor than others - the Lakers and Celtics in hoops, the Cowboys and Packers and Steelers in the NFL, for example - but basically all the teams are regarded as pretty much equal. And that's because structurally, they are. So NFL fans are by definition interested in all 32 teams. Sure, a Packers vs Cowboys playoff game will draw more than the Chargers vs the Dolphins, but not by *that* much.
But IMO, college football is different. CFB only draws big money national interest for about 20 or so teams. Below that, interest, and ratings drop off dramatically. That's why an LSU vs Alabama game might draw 10 million viewers but a San Jose State vs Akron game might only draw 300,000, more than 30x fewer viewers. You don't get anything like that ratings spread in the pros. And even among big names, national interest can fall sharply if the teams aren't really good. An 11-0 Penn State will draw a huge audience. A 8-3 Penn State, significantly less.
So I don't think going to 8 will result in the big splurge of new money that going to 4 did. Four is still very exclusive, your still going to get big name vs big name in those games and they will all have stellar records. But once you go to 8, and especially if you start including G5 autobids and the like, the diminishing returns will kick in dramatically. Now you're talking lesser names and teams with maybe 2-3 losses. National interest in college football falls steeply then.
The upshot: I think those who think 8 team playoff, those four quarterfinals, will be a huge increase money bonanza like the BCS was and then the CFP was are in for a rude awakening. It wouldn't surprise me if the money doesn't go up much at all, because basically you'll just be taking what is now an NY6 game but calling it a playoff game. I'm not sure the ratings go up much for that.
But maybe we shall see.