I've believed for some time that BYU left the Mountain West because being in a lesser conference when their chief rival Utah had just ascended to Power status was untenable. That is why going back to the MWC or joining the AAC was a decision the Cougars would never make.

Independence was not their favorite position, but it was the best available to them.

I want to examine that premise in light of the new CFP proposal.

BYU's current schedule includes numerous P5 teams which is good for business. Nonetheless, BYU rose to fame in the 80s because they were consistently good and because they receive some credit for a national title during their undefeated season.

BYU has a good brand, but it is tied to competing for titles.

In the new setup, assuming the proposal passes, what are the chances BYU makes the playoff as an at large? They're going to have to win a bunch of games to be considered regardless of their affiliation, this is a no doubter. The question is do they have the gravitas to obtain an at-large slot over a Power school with a similar record? I have my doubts.

Part of it would be the schedule and part of it would be the name recognition of any given 6 schools that might be in contention for the CFP. Actually, it should be 5 schools because Notre Dame likely has a slot wrapped up if they're good enough. BYU will not steal a spot from ND.

In the same vein of thought, BYU is likely not stealing a spot from a decent brand already in the P5.

This becomes an issue for a school like BYU because, let's be honest, there was no chance they were getting into the top 4 under the old CFP system. It was a moot point and therefore not worth worrying about. Theoretically it was possible, but joining a conference would not have increased their chances one iota.

Fast forward to the new system, they have a realistic chance of making the field. Now they need to consider what is their best path. Given that conference championships all of a sudden matter and that at least one non-P5 champ will be guaranteed a slot, it may be time for BYU to reconsider their independence.

BYU in the AAC would have a decent shot at winning the conference. If they're not capable of winning the conference in a given season then they have no worse shot at qualifying for an at-large slot than they do as an independent. The difference is subtle, not monumental, but it's real.

If BYU moved their football(not all sports) to the AAC and also used their leverage to guarantee flexible scheduling for non-conference opponents that BYU would like to play then we might have something. So let's consider the hypothetical...

Each of these scenarios is plausible and I'd like to see which BYU team has the best chance of being considered for a CFP spot.

Scenario 1: BYU is 12-0 coming out of independence. They have 4 wins over P5 schools although none of those schools had particularly great records. They also beat Mountain West runner-up Boise State. (Does this team get an at-large?)

Scenario 2: BYU is 13-0 coming out of the AAC. They won the conference and have 2 wins over P5 schools. Neither school was particularly strong this season, but they won nonetheless. They also have a win over Mountain West runner-up Boise State. (Does this team claim one of the top 6 conference slots?)

Scenario 3. BYU is 11-2 coming out of the AAC. They won the conference championship, but lost to the 2 P5 schools they played. They still have a win over Mountain West runner-up Boise State. (Does this team claim one of the top 6 conference slots?)

Scenario 4. BYU is 10-2 coming out of independence. They have 3 wins over P5 competition, but they lost to one of those P5s and they also lost to Mountain West runner-up Boise State. (Does this team get an at-large?)

Admittedly, these scenarios are a bit scattered, but I think each of these teams has a legitimate shot at contending for a CFP spot. The question at hand though is which one gets in and which one doesn't? Or perhaps which BYU squad has the best chance to get in?

I think this is an interesting premise and I'm coming around to the idea that BYU should join the AAC even though I would have considered that a bad idea just last week. The new CFP rules would seem to be significant.

Man, I understand the academic appeal of these questions, but BYU's playoff shot is functionally zero, whether the playoff is zero teams of 16 teams. The team just isn't good enough, and there's little reason to think they'll ever become good enough! Here's what we know.

BYU's elite run from the late 1970s through the early 1990s rests on several factors that aren't replicated now. BYU had one of the very best coaches in college football history who was also willing to work for way under his market value, just because he loved BYU. Since BYU requires the head football coach to be an active Latter-Day Saint, in a given year, the eligible coaching pool is like...seven dudes. They're never going to have another Edwards.

By the early 1980s, BYU had *way* more financial and structural advantages than most of their WAC peers. Now, BYU only enjoys similar advantages over a small handful of opponents each season.

BYU was not nearly as academic selective OR as restrictive in their honor code in the 1980s as it is now, making BYU's already limited player pool MUCH smaller

AND BYU enjoyed their run from like, 1978-1996 because they were one of the very first schools to adopt Air Raid principles, giving them a huge schematic head start, allowing them to win more games with inferior talent. Now, everybody runs that stuff. It's not an underdog tactic anymore.

We know what an independent BYU looks like. We have a decade of data, and we have *decades* of data for what BYU football looks like without the relative ahistorical LaVell Edwards era. That's a program with a 40%-ish winning clip against P5 schools and massive recruiting disadvantages. They'll probably never go undefeated again.

BYU doesn't have a D-I football program because they want to make the Playoff. They'd love to do that. They play to win football games. But Playoff access isn't going to drive whether this progam goes to a league or not. Their program goals are different.

In a 4 team CFP, BYU has no chance in any of the 4 scenarios you laid out. They would need to be undefeated with at least 1 win over an elite P5 school and probably another win over a top 25 P5 school and some ranked at the time of game G5 schools (since a loss to BYU would probably knock them out or severely down the rankings).

Now in a 12 team CFP where the top 12 teams or 6 Conference Champs + the 6 highest at-large teams, BYU would most likely get in in the undefeated scenarios. It would be close though without a decent P5 win. Change that to 2 ranked P5 or 2-3 ranked teams out of the G5 and I think they definitely get in.

(06-17-2021 05:52 AM)MattBrownEP Wrote:  Man, I understand the academic appeal of these questions, but BYU's playoff shot is functionally zero, whether the playoff is zero teams of 16 teams. The team just isn't good enough, and there's little reason to think they'll ever become good enough! Here's what we know.

BYU's elite run from the late 1970s through the early 1990s rests on several factors that aren't replicated now. BYU had one of the very best coaches in college football history who was also willing to work for way under his market value, just because he loved BYU. Since BYU requires the head football coach to be an active Latter-Day Saint, in a given year, the eligible coaching pool is like...seven dudes. They're never going to have another Edwards.

By the early 1980s, BYU had *way* more financial and structural advantages than most of their WAC peers. Now, BYU only enjoys similar advantages over a small handful of opponents each season.

BYU was not nearly as academic selective OR as restrictive in their honor code in the 1980s as it is now, making BYU's already limited player pool MUCH smaller

AND BYU enjoyed their run from like, 1978-1996 because they were one of the very first schools to adopt Air Raid principles, giving them a huge schematic head start, allowing them to win more games with inferior talent. Now, everybody runs that stuff. It's not an underdog tactic anymore.

We know what an independent BYU looks like. We have a decade of data, and we have *decades* of data for what BYU football looks like without the relative ahistorical LaVell Edwards era. That's a program with a 40%-ish winning clip against P5 schools and massive recruiting disadvantages. They'll probably never go undefeated again.

BYU doesn't have a D-I football program because they want to make the Playoff. They'd love to do that. They play to win football games. But Playoff access isn't going to drive whether this progam goes to a league or not. Their program goals are different.

I understand your point, but I think you're overstating the case.

They had one loss last year and that at the hands of a decent team they had to travel cross-country to play with about a week's notice.

If the 12 team format had been in play last season then that very same Coastal Carolina team would have been in the CFP. I don't think that's purely academic. BYU's chance to make a 12 team playoff has to be at least as good as a program like Coastal Carolina...given the correct circumstances.

Their program goals are certainly different. They are akin to Notre Dame in some respect in that religious interests drive them. Independence can serve them well in that regard.

Your point about LaVell Edwards is well taken, but again, they had only one loss just this past season and Mendenhall won 10 games multiple times before leaving for Virginia.

I'm not suggesting at all that they are capable of winning a national title. In fact, I think it's a bit silly to give them credit for 1984 given the competition in the WAC, but some would. Point being, they have a decent reputation for winning and this helps their goals in the long run. An independent squad that at least goes to regular bowl games will be of greater service than a squad that rarely wins games. In that same vein of thought, a team that makes a playoff and loses before a national audience is still more valuable than a team that never makes the CFP at all.

Could BYU legitimately have a better shot at making the CFP while maintaining a national schedule in the American? In a 4 team CFP scenario, absolutely not. In a 12 team scenario? I believe the answer would be yes. The spot they are capable of claiming is that 6th conference champion. That's the point of my exercise.

As an independent and with their heavy P5 schedule theyve been more likely to lose 5-6 games a year.

The only reason they won so many games last year was due to playing zero P5 schools. Their toughest games were Boise and Coastal.

As an Indy, a 1 loss or undefeated BYU definitely make the field IMHO. 2 loss BYU is probably on the wrong side of the bubble.

The OP left out one obvious alternative. If they would have a better chance to become the sixth highest ranked conference champion than to earn an at-large bid as an independent, wouldn't they have a better chance of doing that in the MWC rather than the AAC? Or at least as good a chance? That would make more geographic sense.

That being said, I agree that earning a spot in the CFP isn't BYU's primary goal, and as long as they don't get an invite to a P5 conference I believe they are satisfied with where they are now - independent.

(06-17-2021 10:10 AM)ken d Wrote:  The OP left out one obvious alternative. If they would have a better chance to become the sixth highest ranked conference champion than to earn an at-large bid as an independent, wouldn't they have a better chance of doing that in the MWC rather than the AAC? Or at least as good a chance? That would make more geographic sense.

That being said, I agree that earning a spot in the CFP isn't BYU's primary goal, and as long as they don't get an invite to a P5 conference I believe they are satisfied with where they are now - independent.

Agreed.

For fans, making the playoff is the be all end all.

However, universities aren't run by fans. Even further, BYU is run very differently from virtually every other school that plays FBS football since it is so directly connected to the leadership of an entire religion. They simply don't look at football through the lens of playoff or top bowl access in the way that the current AAC or MWC schools do. It's about institutional control, power and prestige more than anything and they perceive that being independent is simply better for them on that front compared to being in a G5 conference. (Joining a P5 conference would be an entirely different story.)

In D-IA football, BYU, Notre Dame, Liberty, Army, Navy and Air Force are simply a "different model." As such, each could be (if so chosen) independent and do fine. This is one reason, among others, the AAC realistically is not going to land BYU and Army. The league could, in theory, get Air Force with two other MWC programs. BUT with this proposed playoff model likely to be put into place, I don't foresee that.

(06-17-2021 10:25 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(06-17-2021 10:10 AM)ken d Wrote:  The OP left out one obvious alternative. If they would have a better chance to become the sixth highest ranked conference champion than to earn an at-large bid as an independent, wouldn't they have a better chance of doing that in the MWC rather than the AAC? Or at least as good a chance? That would make more geographic sense.

That being said, I agree that earning a spot in the CFP isn't BYU's primary goal, and as long as they don't get an invite to a P5 conference I believe they are satisfied with where they are now - independent.

Agreed.

For fans, making the playoff is the be all end all.

However, universities aren't run by fans. Even further, BYU is run very differently from virtually every other school that plays FBS football since it is so directly connected to the leadership of an entire religion. They simply don't look at football through the lens of playoff or top bowl access in the way that the current AAC or MWC schools do. It's about institutional control, power and prestige more than anything and they perceive that being independent is simply better for them on that front compared to being in a G5 conference. (Joining a P5 conference would be an entirely different story.)

No one suggested that BYU's goals were to have a shot at the CFP or nothing else would suffice. I didn't say it was the be all end all.

Obviously if they wanted to win more than anything else then there are certain things they would do differently including being more open about LDS loyalty. But that's not the hypothetical.

Independence is a new phenomenon for BYU. Until a few years ago, they had always been in the MWC or the WAC...not sure how far back that relationship goes and I'm too lazy to look it up, but it's decades. Independence came along when Utah was invited to the PAC 12. It was a means to an end, not the ideal Plan A. We're not talking about Notre Dame here.

We are talking about a school that seeks national recognition. Independence gives them that in some form. It separates them from Utah and gives them a platform. Remember that the purpose of big time college athletics is to create a platform with which to promote a particular school. In this case, their ties to LDS only make wide scale promotion that much more important, not less important. BYU and the church at large still seek greater penetration into American society and thought.

My premise is that appearing in the CFP or at least competing for a slot is in keeping with their goals.

(06-17-2021 10:10 AM)ken d Wrote:  The OP left out one obvious alternative. If they would have a better chance to become the sixth highest ranked conference champion than to earn an at-large bid as an independent, wouldn't they have a better chance of doing that in the MWC rather than the AAC? Or at least as good a chance? That would make more geographic sense.

That being said, I agree that earning a spot in the CFP isn't BYU's primary goal, and as long as they don't get an invite to a P5 conference I believe they are satisfied with where they are now - independent.

For sake of appearances, going back to the MWC is not a good plan. They've burned some bridges for one thing and it really doesn't separate them from the old image they had as an equal of Utah on a level just below the Power conferences.

The only reason the AAC might make sense is if they can legitimately compete for a CFP slot while also having a schedule flexible enough to play against some P5s when the opportunity arises. That's the best of both worlds given their goals in the midst of independence.

Would the MWC afford scheduling flexibility? Probably not as they already deal with Boise State wanting special treatment. Would the MWC be ok with BYU leaving their other sports in the WCC? Probably not. Nonetheless, basketball and other sport in the WCC affords BYU an opportunity to promote themselves out West.