I ran through the matchups if there were a 6+6 playoff going back to 1998, the start of the BCS era.

18 of the 23 years there would be exactly 6 champs represented. 4 there were 7 and 1 there were 8 (2009-P5, BE, WAC, MWC). However, it has been 6 every year since the Big East disentegrated.

First out would be the #11 seed only 2 years. 9 years it was #12 and 12 years it was #13. 11 of those years that team had 2 losses, 11 it had 3 and once it had 4. In the years with the 12 game schedule those figures didn't change much, being 7 with 2, 8 with 3 and 1 with 4. The First out was a Big 12, Big 10 or ACC team 5 years each, SEC 4 years, Pac 3 years and Big East once.

The SEC and Big 12 champs would have made it every year. The Big 10 was 21 of 23 while being the #7 conference the other two years. The ACC was 19 of 23 while being #7 the other 4 years. The Pac was 21 of 23, but they were lower than #7 in both of those years.

champs wildcard adjustments net
SEC 23 43 3 69
Big 12 23 25 -1 47
Big 10 21 28 4 53
ACC 19 8 11 38
Pac 21 17 3 41
AAC 6 0 1 7
MWC 8 2 -1 9
MAC 3 0 -1 2
CUSA 1 0 0 1
Sun Belt 1 0 0 1
BE 12 1 -13 0
WAC 6 0 -6 0
Big West 0 0 0 0
Ind 0 8 0 8

Participation by conference is above. The adjustments column is for schools that moved during realignment. For example, Boise and Hawaii won the 6 slots from the WAC, but moved to the MWC, who lost 7 slots from TCU and Utah, for a net of -1.

If you only go back as far as the start of the CFP era, there have basically been no significant realignment moves to muddy the water. Of the P5 realignment moves between 2011 and 2014, only one involved a team that would have made a 12 team CFP if it had existed then. That was Missouri in 2013, when the Tigers were #8 in the BCS ranking.

Of the 28 byes we would have had between 2014 and 2020, the SEC, B1G and ACC would have had 7 each, while the Big 12 would have had 5 and the PAC the other two.

The 28 first round hosts would have been P5 dominant as well:

9 B1G
7 SEC
4 Big 12
3 PAC
3 Notre Dame
2 American

The ACC and G5 would have had no home games.

The 28 first round away games:

6 PAC
5 SEC
4 B1G
4 ACC
3 American
3 Big 12
1 MWC (Boise)
1 MAC (WMU)
1 SBC (Coastal Carolina)

In all, the B1G would have had a total of 20 teams in the CFP, and the SEC 19. They were followed by the Big 12 (12), ACC and PAC (11 each), Notre Dame (3) and AAC (5).

32 of the 65 P5 schools made the list at least once. also, 7 of the 65 G5 and independent schools made it. By conference, the number of different schools on the list were:

8 SEC
7 B1G
7 PAC
5 B12
4 ACC
4 AAC
1 ND
1 MAC
1 MWC
1 SBC

Individual schools topping the list in number of appearances:

7 Ohio State
6 Alabama
6 Clemson
6 Oklahoma
4 Georgia
4 Penn State
3 Florida
3 Florida State
3 Notre Dame
3 Wisconsin

EDITS

(06-27-2021 06:11 PM)ken d Wrote:  If you only go back as far as the start of the CFP era, there have basically been no significant realignment moves to muddy the water. Of the P5 realignment moves between 2011 and 2014, only one involved a team that would have made a 12 team CFP if it had existed then. That was Missouri in 2013, when the Tigers were #8 in the BCS ranking.

Of the 28 byes we would have had between 2014 and 2020, the SEC, B1G and ACC would have had 7 each, while the Big 12 would have had 5 and the PAC the other two.

The 28 first round hosts would have been P5 dominant as well:

9 B1G
8 SEC
4 Big 12
4 PAC
3 Notre Dame

The ACC and G5 would have had no home games.

The 28 first round away games:

5 PAC
5 American
4 SEC
4 B1G
4 ACC
3 Big 12
1 MWC (Boise)
1 MAC (WMU)
1 SBC (Coastal Carolina)

In all, the B1G would have had a total of 20 teams in the CFP, and the SEC 19. They were followed by the Big 12 (12), ACC and PAC (11 each), Notre Dame (3) and AAC (5).

32 of the 65 P5 schools made the list at least once. also, 7 of the 65 G5 and independent schools made it. By conference, the number of different schools on the list were:

8 SEC
7 B1G
7 PAC
5 B12
4 ACC
4 AAC
1 ND
1 MAC
1 MWC
1 SBC

Individual schools topping the list in number of appearances:

7 Ohio State
6 Alabama
6 Clemson
6 Oklahoma
4 Georgia
4 Penn State
3 Florida
3 Florida State
3 Notre Dame
3 Wisconsin

So #8 UCF and #8 Cincinnati wouldn't have hosted? I think the #1-4 byes were all ahead of them...so...

(06-27-2021 06:11 PM)ken d Wrote:  If you only go back as far as the start of the CFP era, there have basically been no significant realignment moves to muddy the water. Of the P5 realignment moves between 2011 and 2014, only one involved a team that would have made a 12 team CFP if it had existed then. That was Missouri in 2013, when the Tigers were #8 in the BCS ranking.

Of the 28 byes we would have had between 2014 and 2020, the SEC, B1G and ACC would have had 7 each, while the Big 12 would have had 5 and the PAC the other two.

The 28 first round hosts would have been P5 dominant as well:

9 B1G
8 SEC
4 Big 12
4 PAC
3 Notre Dame

The ACC and G5 would have had no home games.

The 28 first round away games:

5 PAC
5 American
4 SEC
4 B1G
4 ACC
3 Big 12
1 MWC (Boise)
1 MAC (WMU)
1 SBC (Coastal Carolina)

In all, the B1G would have had a total of 20 teams in the CFP, and the SEC 19. They were followed by the Big 12 (12), ACC and PAC (11 each), Notre Dame (3) and AAC (5).

32 of the 65 P5 schools made the list at least once. also, 7 of the 65 G5 and independent schools made it. By conference, the number of different schools on the list were:

8 SEC
7 B1G
7 PAC
5 B12
4 ACC
4 AAC
1 ND
1 MAC
1 MWC
1 SBC

Individual schools topping the list in number of appearances:

7 Ohio State
6 Alabama
6 Clemson
6 Oklahoma
4 Georgia
4 Penn State
3 Florida
3 Florida State
3 Notre Dame
3 Wisconsin

I think that 32 of 65 is one of the key drivers in the expansion to 12. Alabama, Ohio St. and Clemson (and Oklahoma to a lesser extent) have been really dominant in recruiting, not just in their own region.

(06-27-2021 08:38 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(06-27-2021 06:11 PM)ken d Wrote:  If you only go back as far as the start of the CFP era, there have basically been no significant realignment moves to muddy the water. Of the P5 realignment moves between 2011 and 2014, only one involved a team that would have made a 12 team CFP if it had existed then. That was Missouri in 2013, when the Tigers were #8 in the BCS ranking.

Of the 28 byes we would have had between 2014 and 2020, the SEC, B1G and ACC would have had 7 each, while the Big 12 would have had 5 and the PAC the other two.

The 28 first round hosts would have been P5 dominant as well:

9 B1G
8 SEC
4 Big 12
4 PAC
3 Notre Dame

The ACC and G5 would have had no home games.

The 28 first round away games:

5 PAC
5 American
4 SEC
4 B1G
4 ACC
3 Big 12
1 MWC (Boise)
1 MAC (WMU)
1 SBC (Coastal Carolina)

In all, the B1G would have had a total of 20 teams in the CFP, and the SEC 19. They were followed by the Big 12 (12), ACC and PAC (11 each), Notre Dame (3) and AAC (5).

32 of the 65 P5 schools made the list at least once. also, 7 of the 65 G5 and independent schools made it. By conference, the number of different schools on the list were:

8 SEC
7 B1G
7 PAC
5 B12
4 ACC
4 AAC
1 ND
1 MAC
1 MWC
1 SBC

Individual schools topping the list in number of appearances:

7 Ohio State
6 Alabama
6 Clemson
6 Oklahoma
4 Georgia
4 Penn State
3 Florida
3 Florida State
3 Notre Dame
3 Wisconsin

So #8 UCF and #8 Cincinnati wouldn't have hosted? I think the #1-4 byes were all ahead of them...so...

Good catch. My bad. Both would have hosted first round games. The SEC would have had 7 and the PAC would have had 3. I will edit my original post.

Maybe more edits. Notre Dame does not get BYEs.

(06-29-2021 01:41 PM)Crayton Wrote:  Maybe more edits. Notre Dame does not get BYEs.

No edit needed for this - Notre Dame is listed as hosting a first round game three times, with no byes.

Using an algorithm in which the 5th ranked champion hosts the 6th ranked champion in the first round, and then other non-champions are paired such that no intra-conference matchups will occur until the latest round possible, these were likely brackets for each of the last four seasons (including the COVID year). The number before the team name is the actual CFP selection committee rank, not their seed. The third team listed in each group is the conference champ that would play the first round winner at an NY6 bowl site.

2020:
#12 Coastal Carolina @ #8 Cincinnati -- #1 Alabama
#9 Georgia @ #4 Notre Dame -- #6 Oklahoma

#10 Iowa State @ #5 Texas A&M -- #3 Ohio State
# 11 Indiana @ #7 Florida -- #2 Clemson.


2019
#11 Utah @ #8 Wisconsin -- #1 LSU
#10 Penn State @ #5 Georgia -- #4 Oklahoma

#17 Memphis @ #6 Oregon -- #3 Clemson
#9 Florida @ #7 Baylor -- #2 Ohio State

2018
#9 Washington @ #8 UCF -- #1 Alabama
#11 LSU @ #3 Notre Dame -- #6 Ohio State

#12 Penn State @ #5 Georgia -- #4 Oklahoma
#10 Florida @ #7 Michigan -- #2 Clemson

2017
#9 Penn State @ #7 Auburn -- #1 Clemson
#11 Washington @ #4 Alabama -- #6 Ohio State

#12 UCF @ #8 USC -- #3 Georgia
#10 Miami @ #6 Wisconsin -- #2 Oklahoma

I believe that in every year in this format, the CFP winner will be viewed as the undisputed national champion.

My personal preference for the format of the CFP is to have the Sugar, Rose and Orange Bowls always on New Year's Day (unless it falls on a Sunday in conflict with NFL playoffs). The Rose would get its traditional late afternoon slot and the Orange Bowl its traditional evening slot. Then the Fiesta, Cotton and Peach rotate in which one is played on NYD -1 (New Year's Eve), a second on NYD +1 and the third on NYD +2, all in prime time slots. The NY -1 is the fourth conference champion's slot and the other two games match the losers of the first playoff round (who had not otherwise played at a neutral site in the postseason).

The NY-1 site hosts the National Championship game, while the other two host the semifinal games, so each of the sites that never get a New Year's Day game get two games instead. The NYD games get preferential treatment in that quarterfinal pairings could take into account traditional conference tie-ins, though the revenue split should be the same regardless of which NY6 site you play at.