Is Cincy any more attractive if it blocks the Big XII from taking them?

(07-21-2021 09:03 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 08:39 PM)JRsec Wrote:  But I think all conferences will be impacted and I also think what Sankey is pushing for, as cited in the SI piece, will lead to defections in 3 possibly 4 conferences including the SEC.

Such as?

If the SEC was going to kick anybody out they would have booted Vandy for giving up wholesale long ago. Missouri is also an extreme misfit crammed in the East in blatant disregard of reality. I don't see them moving either.

The Pac-12 wouldn't be able to gain much getting what's left in the Big 12. Neither would the ACC. The Big 12 back fills with some combination of Cincinnati, Memphis, BYU, and Houston.

I don't see ACC changes unless ND goes in. Then the move might be WF as a non-football member instead of adding WVU/Cincinnati.

I think Vandy, Wake, and possibly B.C. will opt out. Sankey wants all roster athletes to get full scholarships in all sports and he wants rosters increased.

Departing schools who cite court rulings which changed the nature of an agreement leave without penalty and their leaving opens up all contracts in which they participated, like GORs.

I think the ACC will be vulnerable at its academic top. The B1G will be looking to counter. UNC, UVa, and Duke and likely N.D. will all be rushed again and at double their revenues. If they resist you're fine. If they cash in you will be re-formed and at a profit, but likely with B12 schools.

Things are stunned right now. They are about to get very lively! Good for your business.

(07-21-2021 08:59 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 08:39 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 05:58 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  It's kinda impressive to think about how many losers OU and Texas moving creates.

Let's say they went to the SEC. The following teams would never again see the light of day in the reorganized SEC divisions: Miss State, Ole Miss, Arkansas, South Carolina, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Missouri. Let's say you're in the SEC East. You'd need UGAg, Florida, Auburn, Alabama, and Tennessee to all be down at the same time. Let's say you're in the SEC West. You'd need Texas, Texas A&M, LSU, and Oklahoma to all be down at the same time. The Big 12 would obviously be thrown into chaos. Every G5 would be in limbo pending the dominoes higher up. The Pac-12 would fall closer to the average G5 than the average P5. The Big 12 wouldn't be much better than that. The ACC would still be an awkward tweener between the SEC and B1G and everybody else. The B1G would be permanently at a cash disadvantage unless it was willing to cast off lesser members and somehow expand with top notch merchandise (ND and little else works). I would also assume the NCAA dies even more rapidly if this happens given that Sankey uses the NCAA as his personal gym speed bag on every presser at this point.

If true, it's a massive short term cash in for the SEC. A disproportionate cash advantage over the rest of the field. Vanderbilt would be able to outhire UNC and Duke for basketball coaches.... and basketball assistants.... and build better facilities.... just by being a loser doormat in football every year. It would be interesting over the medium term to see what top end fanbases end up getting whittled away at and dieing. Simple math says if Texas, OU, TAMU, LSU, Alabama, Auburn, TN, UF, and UGAg are all in the same conference they can't all do well. Some of them are going to be staring at steady diet of 8-4/7-5/6-6 for the rest of their lives. You don't keep filling up 100k stadiums going to the Poulan Weedeater Bowl every year. That's how you downgrade those programs and bleed them out.

Yep it creates 15 all in the East. Response to your schadenfreude.

The payouts involved are ~ 75 million a year per school.

I checked. The reporter cleared the story with his publisher who checked out the confidential source, so this is legit.

Other Texas reporters say there is likely fire with the smoke and that talks had been going on for some time.

I don't think this stops here. There will be some major moves as the B1G plays catch up.

Also the SEC's deal numbers jumped 150 million in the SI report so I wondered yesterday on an Oklahoma site if perhaps two additions were coming.

These moves might go a bit higher than 16 members. We'll see. But I think all conferences will be impacted and I also think what Sankey is pushing for, as cited in the SI piece, will lead to defections in 3 possibly 4 conferences including the SEC.

The loser count is everybody but 16 teams' wallets financially.

The loser count on the scoreboard will mean some blue bloods in the SEC will bleed out.

So, don't cut the counting short just looking east.

And if the politicians get involved in this mess the loser count could well be everybody.

What the heck? Politicians have made everyone losers already!

(07-21-2021 10:11 PM)JRsec Wrote:  I think Vandy, Wake, and possibly B.C. will opt out.

BC seems to have come out of their stagnation, most prominently in football. But they have a long road to hoe to get back to par. Mehhhh. I think they'd stay in. Vandy should become a non-football member of their present conference but won't unless forced. Same with Wake.

(07-21-2021 10:11 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Sankey wants all roster athletes to get full scholarships in all sports and he wants rosters increased.

The more things change the more they stay the same. This was the old dividing line between division I-A and I-AA ... who could afford the overhead of the required number of blatantly and deliberately costly sports with little to no revenue potential.

(07-21-2021 10:11 PM)JRsec Wrote:  I think the ACC will be vulnerable at its academic top. The B1G will be looking to counter. UNC, UVa, and Duke and likely N.D. will all be rushed again and at double their revenues.

Normally I'd ask if the B1G is dumb enough to take on the lead weight of Duke football. But their new commish isn't exactly the brightest. What a hideous geography and utter lack of cohesiveness the B1G would have even if they got all those teams. I suppose though Maryland would go back to actually having a rival again instead of being another Rutgers like island in the B1G. UVA football is a historical footnote with few if any accomplishments. Similar story for UNC, save some Mack Brown blips. The sun was low on the empire of Mack when he was hired. You can rehire Bill Snyder but you can't make him younger or better. If we're really riding the football revenue train off the cliff Thelma and Louise style ... those are the .... what .... 5th through 7th most desirable picks out of the ACC? Why would the B1G do that? The SEC could just grab FSU, Clemson, GT, VT, NCST, and UofL and cash in again on TV and again at the gate and make the B1G's ACC expansion moves all pointless beyond some field hockey and soccer and lacrosse trophies nobody actually cares about. The B1G wouldn't even have good recruiting access in football ... STILL ... after taking on two more states.

(07-21-2021 10:11 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Things are stunned right now. They are about to get very lively! Good for your business.

Mixed bag. I've never missed the 9-team ACC more.

(07-21-2021 10:31 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 10:11 PM)JRsec Wrote:  I think Vandy, Wake, and possibly B.C. will opt out.

BC seems to have come out of their stagnation, most prominently in football. But they have a long road to hoe to get back to par. Mehhhh. I think they'd stay in. Vandy should become a non-football member of their present conference but won't unless forced. Same with Wake.

(07-21-2021 10:11 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Sankey wants all roster athletes to get full scholarships in all sports and he wants rosters increased.

The more things change the more they stay the same. This was the old dividing line between division I-A and I-AA ... who could afford the overhead of the required number of blatantly and deliberately costly sports with little to no revenue potential.

(07-21-2021 10:11 PM)JRsec Wrote:  I think the ACC will be vulnerable at its academic top. The B1G will be looking to counter. UNC, UVa, and Duke and likely N.D. will all be rushed again and at double their revenues.

Normally I'd ask if the B1G is dumb enough to take on the lead weight of Duke football. But their new commish isn't exactly the brightest. What a hideous geography and utter lack of cohesiveness the B1G would have even if they got all those teams. I suppose though Maryland would go back to actually having a rival again instead of being another Rutgers like island in the B1G. UVA football is a historical footnote with few if any accomplishments. Similar story for UNC, save some Mack Brown blips. The sun was low on the empire of Mack when he was hired. You can rehire Bill Snyder but you can't make him younger or better. If we're really riding the football revenue train off the cliff Thelma and Louise style ... those are the .... what .... 5th through 7th most desirable picks out of the ACC? Why would the B1G do that? The SEC could just grab FSU, Clemson, GT, VT, NCST, and UofL and cash in again on TV and again at the gate and make the B1G's ACC expansion moves all pointless beyond some field hockey and soccer and lacrosse trophies nobody actually cares about. The B1G wouldn't even have good recruiting access in football ... STILL ... after taking on two more states.

(07-21-2021 10:11 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Things are stunned right now. They are about to get very lively! Good for your business.

Mixed bag. I've never missed the 9-team ACC more.

You are in a fog. Read Sankey's proposals to SI. If we have a new upper tier you are either all in or all out and it will be costly to be all in. The only counter punch the Big 10 has is markets and the largest available to them are in North Carolina and Virginia where the hope to pick up congressional help to offset lost seats. N.D. is the big content prize and Duke is the cost of UNC.

(07-21-2021 10:40 PM)JRsec Wrote:  You are in a fog. Read Sankey's proposals to SI. If we have a new upper tier you are either all in or all out and it will be costly to be all in.

SI has like a half dozen different pieces on it now. Which one?

And I think there's more flexibility on cost than you do provided schools are willing to throw overboard the largess in number of teams. Trim down the NCAA Division 1 minimums. Everybody has been trying to endow away their MBB and FB scholarship costs for some time now. Yes, there'd be some real cost explosion out of baseball and a few other sports. But I think it's manageable enough for enough teams.

Men's/Women's Indoor Track
Men's/Women's Outdoor Track
Men's/Women's Tennis
Men's/Women's Cross Country
Men's/Women's Swimming
Men's/Women's Diving

Bam there's 10 out of your 16 minimum teams fielded with small rosters and low (compared to football/MBB) overhead. At places like UNC and UVA there's plenty of "water polo-esk" sports to be thrown overboard to claw the cost back substantially.

Is this bad news for the ACC?

I would say:

* No more crazy rumor about ACC teams leaving for the Big 12.

* Very questionable that the SEC would go beyond 16. In other words, FSU and Clemson will not get a call from the SEC. To be honest, I don’t think any ACC program (maybe except for ND) would increase the SEC’s payout once UT and OU join the SEC.

* The ACC is in the postion to add whatever remaining Big 12 schoo(s) it wants. TCU or Ok State, anyone?

* I know the ACC media deal was pretty bad but it appears that signing an extremely long GOR would make the ACC outlast the Big 12.

College sports is dead. I'm not interested in seeing 5 B1G, 5 SEC and 2 others in the CFB playoffs every year. The sooner the NFL creates a D League, the better. I really don't give a f*ck if Pitt lands in a safe spot or not. If Pitt ends up in the B1G, it's as much of the problem at hand as Texas and the SEC is.

(07-21-2021 11:02 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  Is this bad news for the ACC?

I would say:

* No more crazy rumor about ACC teams leaving for the Big 12.

* Very questionable that the SEC would go beyond 16. In other words, FSU and Clemson will not get a call from the SEC. To be honest, I don’t think any ACC program (maybe except for ND) would increase the SEC’s payout once UT and OU join the SEC.

* The ACC is in the postion to add whatever remaining Big 12 schoo(s) it wants. TCU or Ok State, anyone?

* I know the ACC media deal was pretty bad but it appears that signing an extremely long GOR would make the ACC outlast the Big 12.

Yes, the bolded statement is correct. Further, there are only a handful of schools that would add revenue at all with Texas and Oklahoma potentially added to the SEC. Off the top of my head, it would likely be limited to Ohio State, Michigan, Notre Dame, Penn State, and maybe Wisconsin. Florida State is really close to a break-even if added to the assumed 16.

However, I continue to think the SEC would be highly intrigued by UNC and UVA as standalone additions to the assumed 16. No, it would not be a financial boon even with an assumed "bump" for both schools by bigger games/new rivals/increased fan interest, but it would be a major power play for the SEC in just about every other arena that matters. Building a BIG wall (pun intended) around the South's flagships and garnering political and academic cohesion among the region would be massively significant.

The ACC has some major individual value in many of its schools that may just need the enhancement of realigned relationships. It currently spans several distinct cultures along the entire Atlantic coast, and that is hard to sustain for any conference. Vanderbilt often comes up in this conversation, and I think they would experience the "bump" in all things except bottom-line $$$ if they were in conference with the ACC as currently composed. Right fit is where the 100-year relationships occur instead of plays for a small percentage bump in yearly revenue, and I hope that is at the forefront of at least a few wise folks during the craziness that is likely about to ensue in realignment.

(07-21-2021 11:46 PM)bigblueblindness Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 11:02 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  Is this bad news for the ACC?

I would say:

* No more crazy rumor about ACC teams leaving for the Big 12.

* Very questionable that the SEC would go beyond 16. In other words, FSU and Clemson will not get a call from the SEC. To be honest, I don’t think any ACC program (maybe except for ND) would increase the SEC’s payout once UT and OU join the SEC.

* The ACC is in the postion to add whatever remaining Big 12 schoo(s) it wants. TCU or Ok State, anyone?

* I know the ACC media deal was pretty bad but it appears that signing an extremely long GOR would make the ACC outlast the Big 12.

Yes, the bolded statement is correct. Further, there are only a handful of schools that would add revenue at all with Texas and Oklahoma potentially added to the SEC. Off the top of my head, it would likely be limited to Ohio State, Michigan, Notre Dame, Penn State, and maybe Wisconsin. Florida State is really close to a break-even if added to the assumed 16.

However, I continue to think the SEC would be highly intrigued by UNC and UVA as standalone additions to the assumed 16. No, it would not be a financial boon even with an assumed "bump" for both schools by bigger games/new rivals/increased fan interest, but it would be a major power play for the SEC in just about every other arena that matters. Building a BIG wall (pun intended) around the South's flagships and garnering political and academic cohesion among the region would be massively significant.

The ACC has some major individual value in many of its schools that may just need the enhancement of realigned relationships. It currently spans several distinct cultures along the entire Atlantic coast, and that is hard to sustain for any conference. Vanderbilt often comes up in this conversation, and I think they would experience the "bump" in all things except bottom-line $$$ if they were in conference with the ACC as currently composed. Right fit is where the 100-year relationships occur instead of plays for a small percentage bump in yearly revenue, and I hope that is at the forefront of at least a few wise folks during the craziness that is likely about to ensue in realignment.

Adding only UNC and UVA achieves the opposite of political cohesion. You do remember how Virginia Tech got in the ACC don't you?

Sent from my Pixel 4a (5G) using CSNbbs mobile app

Looks like this may be true.
ESPN has an article on this:

https://www.espn.com/college-football/st...t-join-sec

If you think about it, this could be very good for the SEC. The revenue for the SEC will go up substantially. I suspect the SEC may generate income per school higher than even the Big Ten. I am not sure what the ACC can do about it as Texas and Oklahoma are too far from the ACC to make sense. I suspect the SEC and Big Ten will be at the top of the revenue per school race with the ACC and Pac 12 substantially behind. This may force Notre Dame's hand though because four power conferences mean that each could have an automatic champion in the playoff, although the SEC and Big Ten will want more of their teams in the playoff too.

(07-21-2021 11:54 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 11:46 PM)bigblueblindness Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 11:02 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  Is this bad news for the ACC?

I would say:

* No more crazy rumor about ACC teams leaving for the Big 12.

* Very questionable that the SEC would go beyond 16. In other words, FSU and Clemson will not get a call from the SEC. To be honest, I don’t think any ACC program (maybe except for ND) would increase the SEC’s payout once UT and OU join the SEC.

* The ACC is in the postion to add whatever remaining Big 12 schoo(s) it wants. TCU or Ok State, anyone?

* I know the ACC media deal was pretty bad but it appears that signing an extremely long GOR would make the ACC outlast the Big 12.

Yes, the bolded statement is correct. Further, there are only a handful of schools that would add revenue at all with Texas and Oklahoma potentially added to the SEC. Off the top of my head, it would likely be limited to Ohio State, Michigan, Notre Dame, Penn State, and maybe Wisconsin. Florida State is really close to a break-even if added to the assumed 16.

However, I continue to think the SEC would be highly intrigued by UNC and UVA as standalone additions to the assumed 16. No, it would not be a financial boon even with an assumed "bump" for both schools by bigger games/new rivals/increased fan interest, but it would be a major power play for the SEC in just about every other arena that matters. Building a BIG wall (pun intended) around the South's flagships and garnering political and academic cohesion among the region would be massively significant.

The ACC has some major individual value in many of its schools that may just need the enhancement of realigned relationships. It currently spans several distinct cultures along the entire Atlantic coast, and that is hard to sustain for any conference. Vanderbilt often comes up in this conversation, and I think they would experience the "bump" in all things except bottom-line $$$ if they were in conference with the ACC as currently composed. Right fit is where the 100-year relationships occur instead of plays for a small percentage bump in yearly revenue, and I hope that is at the forefront of at least a few wise folks during the craziness that is likely about to ensue in realignment.

Adding only UNC and UVA achieves the opposite of political cohesion. You do remember how Virginia Tech got in the ACC don't you?

Sent from my Pixel 4a (5G) using CSNbbs mobile app

Good point, let me clarify. I meant that it brings cohesion among the flagships in the South, not necessarily within State legislatures. Adding UT and OU will hardly bring cohesion within the states of Texas and Oklahoma, but it achieves the aims of the SEC member schools. Most other states with an SEC team experience the same split of one of the top public schools in conference and the other one in a different conference. The idea of adding UNC and UVA would be par for the course among the rest of the SEC-represented states.

(07-21-2021 04:19 PM)Lou_C Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 03:23 PM)Ewglenn Wrote:  https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.tenness...8046663002

This has legs. Doesn't mean it's going to happen, but it's not some West Virginia nonsense.

Pete Thamel tweeted:
Made a few calls. Column coming. General feel is that Texas was going to essentially explore free agency after this TV deal. Independent? ACC? SEC? They were going to be active. "There’s too much chatter and conversation behind the scenes for there to not be some truth here."

Unless the ACC can somehow pull full membership for ND and/or Texas out of the hat, this move by the SEC just further relegates the ACC to third-tier status along with the PAC.

I don't realistically see what the ACC can really do here, but things get a lot uglier than they already are if Texas and OU go SEC and the ensuing TV contract therein. Even if that doesn't happen, the ACC is about to be doubled in revenue. What now, tripled with this development?

This could be very bad for the ACC, Pac 12 and Big 12. It probably won't matter to the Big Ten but the SEC could really hit the jackpot in revenue. The game is about to change from the cable TV model to the Internet streaming model. There are really rich companies out there with streaming like Apple TV, Amazon, Netflix, Peacock, Disney, Paramount plus, Warner Brothers Discovery, Youtube TV(Google). I will have to think about how this all shakes out. There is lots of money sloshing around.

I don't think Duke leaves NC. I think we take WV and Kansas. This is a basketball conference that plays football after all. ND waits till the end, because they are all about honor and loyalty. by the way, I am Catholic.

Everyone keeps complaining about the ACC's contract and being stuck until the 2030's.

Assuming Texas/Oklahoma to the SEC happens, would you rather be one of the Little 8?

As much as the destruction of The Big 12 makes me happy, Texas and Oklahoma creates a problem for the SEC as well. The pecking order of The SEC will change. That means teams that are used to winning 6 or 7 games a year will slip to 5 or 6 wins each season. That’s gonna be hard to stomach. Even with a nice conference paycheck.

This isn’t necessarily the win-win for all those involved. I can see the Tennessee’s and Georgia’s of The SEC not being happy about this.

You can’t simply add schools and expect the product to improve exponentially. We will reach a point where wins are hard to come by.

ESPN could facilitate the growing pains by encouraging a reshuffling of conferences under their control. Moves where two schools in an SEC state are split from two schools in The ACC.

For example Wake Forest for Vanderbilt. SEC gets into North Carolina and The ACC gets into Tennessee. This could happen in North Carolina, Virginia, Alabama, Mississippi and Texas.

New markets for both conferences. A strengthening of SEC Basketball and ACC Football.

ACC needs to offer Texas the same deal as Notre Dame. I think they would take that over the SEC.

Here is a completely radical idea.

Offer TX and OU and tell them they can bring a friend. That puts us at 18. If we can convince ND to join, invite Navy as a FB only. That puts us at 20 for FB, 19 for BB. Divide the conference up into 5 divisions of 4. Everybody plays their division and one from each of the others for a 7 game conference schedule. This way everyone plays everyone once every 4 years. For BB everyone plays once and 2 teams play twice for a 20 game schedule. We gain the TX market for the ACC Network, and the 4 western teams become one pod. They also give our non revenue sports a travel partner. It would also give the ACC 4 members in the central time zone. This would help with TV scheduling.

Currently we provide to ESPN:
56 conference football games plus 2-3 ND games annually.
150 conference BB games.

Under this proposal we would provide:
70 conference football games.
190 conference BB games.

I understand that ND doesn't want to join a conference, but the opportunity to play marquee games against OU and UT along with keeping Navy on the schedule as a conference game might tempt them. They would still have 5 OOC games a year to play USC, and a B1G opponent or 2 with games left over. This also frees up our 4 members who have a standing rivalry with the SEC. They now have 5 non conference games to work. ND is now a conference member freeing up a game every 3 years.

IF ND says no, go with 18 and scrap the divisions all together. 3 permanent and 5 rotating opponents on an 8 game schedule. You still see every conference member once during a 4 year period. Every student athlete will play every conference member at least once assuming they play all 4 years.

at 18 we would provide to ESPN:
72 conference games in FB.
180 conference games in BB.

I think ESPN believes if they build the SEC into this monstrously powerful conference that fans all over the country will switch their loyalty and start watching SEC football. I believe they are dead wrong.

I, for one, will never do that. I'm a VT fan for live (and, since the rest of my family went to Clemson, a Tiger fan to some extent, too). Even if those teams are relegated to what is essentially G5 status, I'll still follow "my team" no matter what. I don't watch SEC football now, and this will kill any curiosity I might have in it.

By paying the SEC (and the Big Ten) far more than other conferences, the networks are destroying a great sport. It's a real pity, and very short-sighted IMO. I predict ESPN will eventually lose most of their TV audience outside of the SEC and B1G footprints - and it's their own fault. They needed to keep every part of the country involved in college football, but their actions have consistently undermined that need.

[/rant]

If NIL and pay to play legislation were to create a legal situation that allows for the nullification of existing contracts like conference membership and GoRs, I could see the B1G countering with a move of cosmic proportions.

Add two more 7 team divisions, bringing the league to 28 schools (and change the shorthand name from B1G to BIG):

Pacific: Washington, Oregon, Cal, Stanford, USC, UCLA and Notre Dame

Atlantic: Clemson, FSU, Va Tech, Ga Tech, North Carolina, NC State and Virginia

Along with the SEC, effectively establish a new subdivision within the FBS in which athletes in all sports get full scholarships (along with increased stipends in the revenue sports only) to go along with the NIL benefits that accrue directly to the individual players.

Then wait and see if any members opt out on either financial or philosophical grounds and adjust accordingly.