UK-Louisville is annual during Rivalry Week. KU-Mizzou have a few games scheduled I believe. I don’t see that returning annually though.

(08-01-2021 11:43 AM)esayem Wrote:  UK-Louisville is annual during Rivalry Week. KU-Mizzou have a few games scheduled I believe. I don’t see that returning annually though.

Four games: 2025, 2026, 2031, 2032.

https://kuathletics.com/kansas-football-...-missouri/

Missouri's non conference games are fully booked (four games) until 2031.
https://fbschedules.com/ncaa/missouri/

I see eight scheduled games against my Illini!

I think the SEC should be fine with 2 divisions of 8 as long as they add a 9th conference game. 7+2 and in 4 years you have played the entire conference. They knew they were killing some traditional games with the expansion but I'm sure the money they will be getting every year will make up for it.

Tweaked my divisionless setup for the SEC-16 again for better SOS balance:


Perhaps most controversial is that I dropped the annual Alabama/Tennessee matchup in favor of a more competitive Alabama/Oklahoma matchup. Alabama will still get to beat up Tennessee every 2 years out of 4.

The SEC is looking at 9 games but it would not be to "accommodate" Texas and Oklahoma. We've shown here you can have healthy schedules with only 8 games. Going to 9 would be a financial decision.

However, most 9-game models I've seen don't use that 9th game to add an extra, marquee, Alabama vs. Oklahoma -type matchup, they use it to get every team to every stadium at least every fourth year.

If the SEC wants to add marquee games, it'll likely be within a pod model, where teams play one another twice every 6 years (not every 4), regardless of 8 or 9 games. You can have 3 pod rivals, 4 teams in a paired pod, and 1 or 2 extra games for either rivalries or marquee matchups... and most extra-pod rivalries WILL be marquee games.

Here is an example where each pod consists of two "strong" teams and two "weak" teams and the listed 8th opponent for each team keeps the strong with the strong and the weak with the weak.

SOUTH: Texas A&M(Tex), LSU(Ala), Ole Miss(VU), Miss St(Ark)
EAST: Florida(OU), Georgia(Aub), South Carolina(MU), Kentucky(UT)
CENTRAL: Alabama(LSU), Auburn(UGA), Tennessee(UK), Vanderbilt(Miss)
PLAINS: Texas(A&M), Oklahoma(UF), Missouri(USC), Arkansas(MSU)

Alternatively, that 8th game could "rotate" among 4 teams from 4 different pods. For example: LSU, Alabama, Florida, and Oklahoma could all play each other twice every 3 years instead of pairing into permanent rivalries. Auburn-Georgia and A&M-Texas would prefer to keep their annual games. Not even sure any "weak" teams need to use that 8th game for a permanent rival.

If you add a 9th game that will multiply the number of such games even more, giving you 2 "permanent" extra-pod rivals and 2 "minor" (2 out of 3 year) extra-pod rivals, no more than 2 of which can be from the same other pod.

(08-02-2021 08:07 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  Tweaked my divisionless setup for the SEC-16 again for better SOS balance:

Code:

ALABAMA         Auburn          LSU             Oklahoma        
ARKANSAS        Missouri        Mississippi St  Texas          
AUBURN          Alabama         Georgia         Vanderbilt      
FLORIDA         Georgia         South Carolina  Tennessee      
GEORGIA         Florida         Auburn          South Carolina  
KENTUCKY        South Carolina  Tennessee       Missouri        
LSU             Texas A&M       Alabama         Ole Miss        
MISSISSIPPI ST  Ole Miss        Arkansas        Texas A&M      
MISSOURI        Arkansas        Oklahoma        Kentucky        
OKLAHOMA        Texas           Missouri        Alabama        
OLE MISS        Mississippi St  Vanderbilt      LSU            
SOUTH CAROLINA  Kentucky        Florida         Georgia        
TENNESSEE       Vanderbilt      Kentucky        Florida        
TEXAS           Oklahoma        Texas A&M       Arkansas        
TEXAS A&M       LSU             Texas           Mississippi St  
VANDERBILT      Tennessee       Ole Miss        Auburn

Perhaps most controversial is that I dropped the annual Alabama/Tennessee matchup in favor of a more competitive Alabama/Oklahoma matchup. Alabama will still get to beat up Tennessee every 2 years out of 4.

That won’t happen. Alabama is Tennessee’s most hated opponent and a “must-play” team.

(08-08-2021 12:53 PM)Crayton Wrote:  The SEC is looking at 9 games but it would not be to "accommodate" Texas and Oklahoma. We've shown here you can have healthy schedules with only 8 games. Going to 9 would be a financial decision.

However, most 9-game models I've seen don't use that 9th game to add an extra, marquee, Alabama vs. Oklahoma -type matchup, they use it to get every team to every stadium at least every fourth year.

If the SEC wants to add marquee games, it'll likely be within a pod model, where teams play one another twice every 6 years (not every 4), regardless of 8 or 9 games. You can have 3 pod rivals, 4 teams in a paired pod, and 1 or 2 extra games for either rivalries or marquee matchups... and most extra-pod rivalries WILL be marquee games.

Here is an example where each pod consists of two "strong" teams and two "weak" teams and the listed 8th opponent for each team keeps the strong with the strong and the weak with the weak.

SOUTH: Texas A&M(Tex), LSU(Ala), Ole Miss(VU), Miss St(Ark)
EAST: Florida(OU), Georgia(Aub), South Carolina(MU), Kentucky(UT)
CENTRAL: Alabama(LSU), Auburn(UGA), Tennessee(UK), Vanderbilt(Miss)
PLAINS: Texas(A&M), Oklahoma(UF), Missouri(USC), Arkansas(MSU)

Alternatively, that 8th game could "rotate" among 4 teams from 4 different pods. For example: LSU, Alabama, Florida, and Oklahoma could all play each other twice every 3 years instead of pairing into permanent rivalries. Auburn-Georgia and A&M-Texas would prefer to keep their annual games. Not even sure any "weak" teams need to use that 8th game for a permanent rival.

If you add a 9th game that will multiply the number of such games even more, giving you 2 "permanent" extra-pod rivals and 2 "minor" (2 out of 3 year) extra-pod rivals, no more than 2 of which can be from the same other pod.

This is gold. And quality but apprehensive teams can "afford" to play more marquee games with an expanded postseason.

Plus, an intra-divisional game to cross-divisional game ratio of 7:2 instead of 7:1 still makes it unlikely that cross-divisional games will unfairly affect the outcome of division races relative to the results of intra-divisional play. In comparison, no SEC cross-divisional game has had an unfair impact on division races since the SEC expanded to 14 and that ratio rose from 5:3 to 3:1.

I like it!

Here is the 18 team alignment (FSU Clemson) with three protected opponents. Only issue is it means possibly 10 conference games with a 3+7/7.

You actually don’t have to force any rivalries once FSU Clemson are in.

(08-01-2021 11:28 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  Are most of those annual games even a current thing? Mizzou Kansas or UK UL at the moment?

(08-01-2021 11:43 AM)esayem Wrote:  UK-Louisville is annual during Rivalry Week. KU-Mizzou have a few games scheduled I believe. I don’t see that returning annually though.

The annual rivalry week game is Kansas - Arkansas, but that's because there's no real rival for Arkansas to play. If Arkansas gets a true rivalry game against Texas during rivalry week, Mizzou - Kansas is a natural ... the numbers work out, and both Mizzou and Kansas would be happy to have that as an annual game.

(08-08-2021 01:41 PM)chester Wrote:  

(08-08-2021 12:53 PM)Crayton Wrote:  The SEC is looking at 9 games but it would not be to "accommodate" Texas and Oklahoma. We've shown here you can have healthy schedules with only 8 games. Going to 9 would be a financial decision.

However, most 9-game models I've seen don't use that 9th game to add an extra, marquee, Alabama vs. Oklahoma -type matchup, they use it to get every team to every stadium at least every fourth year.

If the SEC wants to add marquee games, it'll likely be within a pod model, where teams play one another twice every 6 years (not every 4), regardless of 8 or 9 games. You can have 3 pod rivals, 4 teams in a paired pod, and 1 or 2 extra games for either rivalries or marquee matchups... and most extra-pod rivalries WILL be marquee games.

Here is an example where each pod consists of two "strong" teams and two "weak" teams and the listed 8th opponent for each team keeps the strong with the strong and the weak with the weak.

SOUTH: Texas A&M(Tex), LSU(Ala), Ole Miss(VU), Miss St(Ark)
EAST: Florida(OU), Georgia(Aub), South Carolina(MU), Kentucky(UT)
CENTRAL: Alabama(LSU), Auburn(UGA), Tennessee(UK), Vanderbilt(Miss)
PLAINS: Texas(A&M), Oklahoma(UF), Missouri(USC), Arkansas(MSU)

Alternatively, that 8th game could "rotate" among 4 teams from 4 different pods. For example: LSU, Alabama, Florida, and Oklahoma could all play each other twice every 3 years instead of pairing into permanent rivalries. Auburn-Georgia and A&M-Texas would prefer to keep their annual games. Not even sure any "weak" teams need to use that 8th game for a permanent rival.

If you add a 9th game that will multiply the number of such games even more, giving you 2 "permanent" extra-pod rivals and 2 "minor" (2 out of 3 year) extra-pod rivals, no more than 2 of which can be from the same other pod.

This is gold. And quality but apprehensive teams can "afford" to play more marquee games with an expanded postseason.

Plus, an intra-divisional game to cross-divisional game ratio of 7:2 instead of 7:1 still makes it unlikely that cross-divisional games will unfairly affect the outcome of division races relative to the results of intra-divisional play. In comparison, no SEC cross-divisional game has had an unfair impact on division races since the SEC expanded to 14 and that ratio rose from 5:3 to 3:1.

I like it!

2015, Alabama and Ole Miss both went 5-1 in division. Ole Miss beat Alabama but lost against SEC-East champ Florida and 'Bama represented the West. Schedules were pretty "fair" with Ole Miss playing the #1 and #4 team from the East while Alabama played the #2 and #3. In 2012, South Carolina's loss to LSU cost the Gators the division and a shot at the Natty (yes, with Muschamp).

You could crown division winners based only on divisional record but that would diminish the importance of those cross-division games, and with only 1 cross-division game it'll only matter it a circumstance like Ole Miss above where the team with 1 more loss gets the boot... enhancing the SEC Championship.

After looking at conference records over the past 10 years, Vanderbilt and Kentucky may need to be switched so that each pod/division has an A, B, C, and D quality team. Vanderbilt can still be a permanent rival with Tennessee; Arkansas and Kentucky can then trade rivals from the state of Mississippi (so the Bulldogs continue playing the Wildcats annually).

(08-08-2021 10:42 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(08-01-2021 11:28 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  Are most of those annual games even a current thing? Mizzou Kansas or UK UL at the moment?

(08-01-2021 11:43 AM)esayem Wrote:  UK-Louisville is annual during Rivalry Week. KU-Mizzou have a few games scheduled I believe. I don’t see that returning annually though.

The annual rivalry week game is Kansas - Arkansas, but that's because there's no real rival for Arkansas to play. If Arkansas gets a true rivalry game against Texas during rivalry week, Mizzou - Kansas is a natural ... the numbers work out, and both Mizzou and Kansas would be happy to have that as an annual game.

• Mizzou doesn’t have open dates

• Where is Mizzou “happy” with this prospect? They finally agree to a handful of games how long after leaving?

• Arkansas has a great game vs LSU, while TAMU can suck it up and go back to playing Texas.

• Mizzou would DEFINITELY want OU over KU during Rivalry Week. Having that date legitimizes their program.

(08-09-2021 06:29 AM)esayem Wrote:  Arkansas has a great game vs LSU, while TAMU can suck it up and go back to playing Texas.

That also assumes Kansas freed up by an OOC Rivalry Week game.

Quote: • Mizzou would DEFINITELY want OU over KU during Rivalry Week. Having that date legitimizes their program.

That assumes OU is available.

Why do you keep bringing up Kansas as if anybody in the SEC cares about Kansas?

And yes, I am assuming OU moves Bedlam to earlier in the season much like Iowa playing Iowa State.

Everything you said was assuming as well, btw.

(08-09-2021 08:18 AM)esayem Wrote:  Why do you keep bringing up Kansas as if anybody in the SEC cares about Kansas?

I was bringing up Mizzou/Arkansas. The KnowRivalry indices for Mizzou are Kansas 62.5, and Arkansas 11.7.

The KnowRivalry indices for Arkansas are LSU 30.4 and Texas 28.4.

It's the KnowRivalry data that brings up Kansas, when the issue of giving Arkansas a rivalry game they care more about comes up.

Quote: And yes, I am assuming OU moves Bedlam to earlier in the season much like Iowa playing Iowa State.

That's possible, but with Oklahoma's primary rivalry game also being locked in to earlier in the season, that's not guaranteed.

Quote: Everything you said was assuming as well, btw.

Certainly, except for the empirically driven parts drawn from KnowRivalry.com ... several of them were noted in the longer posts above in this discussion, but the principle one is basing the rivalry week games on at least one, and preferably both, sides of the contest viewing it as a rivalry, whenever practicable.

I don’t disagree that the Border War and Bedlam are more steeped in tradition and would be good for the game, I just don’t see it happening. I really think Mizzou wants to separate themselves from Kansas and tbh I’m surprised they even have the limited series scheduled.

I believe some sort of combination of Arkansas, LSU, Texas, and TAMU is certain for Rivalry Week. That would mean Mizzou and Oklahoma would need to both agree to playing an OOC foe, and like I said, I think given the choice Mizzou chooses the Sooners over the Jayhawks. That’s a mega ticket game even if Mizzou isn’t necessarily in play for the division.

(08-08-2021 10:42 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  The annual rivalry week game is Kansas - Arkansas, but that's because there's no real rival for Arkansas to play. If Arkansas gets a true rivalry game against Texas during rivalry week, Mizzou - Kansas is a natural ... the numbers work out, and both Mizzou and Kansas would be happy to have that as an annual game.

Huh?

(08-09-2021 11:28 AM)esayem Wrote:  I don’t disagree that the Border War and Bedlam are more steeped in tradition and would be good for the game, I just don’t see it happening. I really think Mizzou wants to separate themselves from Kansas and tbh I’m surprised they even have the limited series scheduled.

I believe some sort of combination of Arkansas, LSU, Texas, and TAMU is certain for Rivalry Week. That would mean Mizzou and Oklahoma would need to both agree to playing an OOC foe, and like I said, I think given the choice Mizzou chooses the Sooners over the Jayhawks. That’s a mega ticket game even if Mizzou isn’t necessarily in play for the division.

I agree with this. With regards to A&M, Texas, Arkansas, and LSU, I think we see LSU-A&M continuing both because it is the matchup those schools value most right now and because most models have them playing in the same pod. Arkansas lucks out most with this arangement; Oklahoma gets a ho-hum Missouri.

(08-09-2021 11:28 AM)esayem Wrote:  I don’t disagree that the Border War and Bedlam are more steeped in tradition and would be good for the game, I just don’t see it happening. I really think Mizzou wants to separate themselves from Kansas and tbh I’m surprised they even have the limited series scheduled.

I believe some sort of combination of Arkansas, LSU, Texas, and TAMU is certain for Rivalry Week. That would mean Mizzou and Oklahoma would need to both agree to playing an OOC foe, and like I said, I think given the choice Mizzou chooses the Sooners over the Jayhawks. That’s a mega ticket game even if Mizzou isn’t necessarily in play for the division.

Kansas-Missouri was a literal war in the 1850s. Don't think they have quite gotten over that.

(08-10-2021 07:40 AM)Crayton Wrote:  

(08-09-2021 11:28 AM)esayem Wrote:  I don’t disagree that the Border War and Bedlam are more steeped in tradition and would be good for the game, I just don’t see it happening. I really think Mizzou wants to separate themselves from Kansas and tbh I’m surprised they even have the limited series scheduled.

I believe some sort of combination of Arkansas, LSU, Texas, and TAMU is certain for Rivalry Week. That would mean Mizzou and Oklahoma would need to both agree to playing an OOC foe, and like I said, I think given the choice Mizzou chooses the Sooners over the Jayhawks. That’s a mega ticket game even if Mizzou isn’t necessarily in play for the division.

I agree with this. With regards to A&M, Texas, Arkansas, and LSU, I think we see LSU-A&M continuing both because it is the matchup those schools value most right now and because most models have them playing in the same pod. Arkansas lucks out most with this arangement; Oklahoma gets a ho-hum Missouri.

I don't think OU will settle for a ho-hum, even if Missouri wants it. I think OU/OSU will be the rivalry week matchup, and Missouri will have to play someone else (even if it's Kansas). Kansas would at least be an easy opponent most of the time.

Missouri is Oklahoma’s fifth most played opponent, and this is considering they haven’t been in the same conference for almost 10 years and they weren’t in the same division in the Big XII. OU also has their second lowest winning percentage vs Mizzou out of their top five, behind only Texas.

So on paper it isn’t that “ho-hum” of a matchup.

(08-10-2021 09:36 AM)esayem Wrote:  Missouri is Oklahoma’s fifth most played opponent, and this is considering they haven’t been in the same conference for almost 10 years and they weren’t in the same division in the Big XII. OU also has their second lowest winning percentage vs Mizzou out of their top five, behind only Texas.

So on paper it isn’t that “ho-hum” of a matchup.

That fact intrigued me. I went to find the teams who have beaten the Sooners the most:
63 - Texas
38 - Nebraska
27 - Kansas (wow)
24 - Missouri
21 - Kansas St
18 - OK State
17 - Colorado
12 - Texas A&M

These include numbers from over 100 years ago. More recent numbers tell different stories.

Post-WWII, Missouri is a more pedestrian (anemic?) 8-51-1.
Kansas State is a respectable 10-13 since the mid-90s.
Kansas is 0-16 since the stopped playing annually.
OK State went 5-3 from '95-'02, but outside that has been 7-69-3 since the Hoover administration (Gundy has won twice)
Colorado was undefeated between '88 and '02, but otherwise has been 9-40-1.

(08-10-2021 08:56 AM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  I don't think OU will settle for a ho-hum, even if Missouri wants it. I think OU/OSU will be the rivalry week matchup, and Missouri will have to play someone else (even if it's Kansas). Kansas would at least be an easy opponent most of the time.

Some of this will be answered by the SEC. Do they want Oklahoma in an SEC game every year that week? Maybe. Georgia and Florida alternate @ an ACC team everyother year. "Too much of a good thing" is a thing, and if there aren't enough TV slots for the Iron Bowl, A&M-LSU, Florida/Georgia AND both Oklahoma and Texas every year, they may put OOC games there instead.

I'll go back to betting we see the continuation of Missou-Arkansas while Oklahoma and Texas play old Big 8 and SWC schools, respectively, that last week. While Colorado or Nebraska or even Kansas State are more "even" on the football field with the Sooners, if OK State stays on the schedule, this is where they'll be put.