Heres the thing. We all are debating what the payout will be but nobody is talking about the structure of the payout.

THe AAC is "everything for one price", whereas the current BIg 12 deal has a tier 1, tier 2 and then digital rights.

Yes, a believe a newly rebuilt Big 12 will make more than the AAC current deal. There are writers who are in the know who have estimated as LOW as $9 million ($2 more than we currently get) and some who think it will be closer to $20 million.

BUT, is that for everything, or is it going to be structured like the old B12. Kansas makes around $7 million a year just off their third tier rights. So if the new Big 12 gets the high end of the range at say $20 million, and they keep their third tier deal, then $27 million a year isnt so devastating.

This is what we have to hope for. If we can retain our third tier, then it makes a big difference. Some schools can group together to maximize that income too. Lets say they take Houston (which they should) then the 4 schools in texas could work together to maximize that.
I dont see Fox just dropping their interest in the Big 12. Many of their games against each other scored solid ratings. They also will be short on inventory since ESPN has scooped up so much... AND The SEC, Big 10 and PAC 12 are all getting new deals in the next few years. The bar is about to be set higher and a new Big 12 will benefit from it.

I can see where the BIg 10 and SEC will be getting $60-70 million a year. The ACC will be back closer to $40 or less and the PAC will hope to match the ACC. I can see a combination of deals, streaming services and retainment of third tier could lead a new Big 12 to a decent fifth place in the mid $20s and with NCAA credits, maybe hit 30. Those NCAA credits will be big in the new Big 12.
It would barely keep us in the conversation but the separation between P5 and G5 would grow because what is left of the AAC would drop down to the MWC payout.

Mandel basically saying the new B12 = the AAC in TV value.

Stewart Mandel
@slmandel
·
1h
What value would the Big 12's Left-Behind 8 bring to a new conference?

I combed through every Big 12 TV game from 2018 and '19 not involving Texas or Oklahoma.

It's ... humbling.

(07-27-2021 09:53 AM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  Mandel basically saying the new B12 = the AAC in TV value.

Stewart Mandel
@slmandel
·
1h
What value would the Big 12's Left-Behind 8 bring to a new conference?

I combed through every Big 12 TV game from 2018 and '19 not involving Texas or Oklahoma.

It's ... humbling.

Anyone thinking that league will get 20 million a year regardless of 2ho they add is dreaming.
I don’t blame anyone in AAC for leaving for it, because if the survive they will be the new AAC they’ll get 7-10 million a year. Sure that’s better than what the AAC gets or what’s left of it will get, but don’t fool yourselves it’s now a tweener league.

(07-27-2021 10:01 AM)Cubanbull1 Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 09:53 AM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  Mandel basically saying the new B12 = the AAC in TV value.

Stewart Mandel
@slmandel
·
1h
What value would the Big 12's Left-Behind 8 bring to a new conference?

I combed through every Big 12 TV game from 2018 and '19 not involving Texas or Oklahoma.

It's ... humbling.

Anyone thinking that league will get 20 million a year regardless of 2ho they add is dreaming.
I don’t blame anyone in AAC for leaving for it, because if the survive they will be the new AAC they’ll get 7-10 million a year. Sure that’s better than what the AAC gets or what’s left of it will get, but don’t fool yourselves it’s now a tweener league.

Yes, joining the L8 if invited is (a) an easy 'yes' for any AAC school to make, but (b) it's like joining the Big East 10 years ago after the top brands had left for the ACC and Big 12. You're not joining a "power" league anymore.

(07-27-2021 10:01 AM)Cubanbull1 Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 09:53 AM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  Mandel basically saying the new B12 = the AAC in TV value.

Stewart Mandel
@slmandel
·
1h
What value would the Big 12's Left-Behind 8 bring to a new conference?

I combed through every Big 12 TV game from 2018 and '19 not involving Texas or Oklahoma.

It's ... humbling.

Anyone thinking that league will get 20 million a year regardless of 2ho they add is dreaming.
I don’t blame anyone in AAC for leaving for it, because if the survive they will be the new AAC they’ll get 7-10 million a year. Sure that’s better than what the AAC gets or what’s left of it will get, but don’t fool yourselves it’s now a tweener league.

I would agree if it wasnt for all the TV contracts and deal that have to be broken to make this happen.

Its being reported everywhere that the desire is to have them move in the next year or two. To make that happen, not only will some fees have to be paid, but deals will have to be worked out and I dont see the leftover 8 just taking the lowest offer.

The main tv deal wont be $20 million, but I can see negotiations that allow for a sale of third tier and local digital rights. Kansas makes over $7 million a year for that.

ESPN will overpay to get this all done. They are saving a boatload on not having to pay the full amount to the leftover 8 and the cancellation of the Longwhore Network. Its worth them to maybe go up a bit to get this done.

Looking at the future, the Big 12, if they add the right teams, could bring in ACC level NCAA credits. That too will be a solid number. I truly think a new Big 12 can be in the Mid 20 millions with total payout.

(07-27-2021 10:05 AM)mtmedlin Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 10:01 AM)Cubanbull1 Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 09:53 AM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  Mandel basically saying the new B12 = the AAC in TV value.

Stewart Mandel
@slmandel
·
1h
What value would the Big 12's Left-Behind 8 bring to a new conference?

I combed through every Big 12 TV game from 2018 and '19 not involving Texas or Oklahoma.

It's ... humbling.

Anyone thinking that league will get 20 million a year regardless of 2ho they add is dreaming.
I don’t blame anyone in AAC for leaving for it, because if the survive they will be the new AAC they’ll get 7-10 million a year. Sure that’s better than what the AAC gets or what’s left of it will get, but don’t fool yourselves it’s now a tweener league.

I would agree if it wasnt for all the TV contracts and deal that have to be broken to make this happen.

Its being reported everywhere that the desire is to have them move in the next year or two. To make that happen, not only will some fees have to be paid, but deals will have to be worked out and I dont see the leftover 8 just taking the lowest offer.

The main tv deal wont be $20 million, but I can see negotiations that allow for a sale of third tier and local digital rights. Kansas makes over $7 million a year for that.

ESPN will overpay to get this all done. They are saving a boatload on not having to pay the full amount to the leftover 8 and the cancellation of the Longwhore Network. Its worth them to maybe go up a bit to get this done.

Looking at the future, the Big 12, if they add the right teams, could bring in ACC level NCAA credits. That too will be a solid number. I truly think a new Big 12 can be in the Mid 20 millions with total payout.

I disagree but hey we will find out. The exit fees will allow the left overs to hit that 20 million for a few years, the newcomers will get no more than 10.

Even at20 million that would be 50% of the ACC and PAC. That’s @ huge drop for the leftovers used to getting 40 million a year.

(07-27-2021 10:03 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 10:01 AM)Cubanbull1 Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 09:53 AM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  Mandel basically saying the new B12 = the AAC in TV value.

Stewart Mandel
@slmandel
·
1h
What value would the Big 12's Left-Behind 8 bring to a new conference?

I combed through every Big 12 TV game from 2018 and '19 not involving Texas or Oklahoma.

It's ... humbling.

Anyone thinking that league will get 20 million a year regardless of 2ho they add is dreaming.
I don’t blame anyone in AAC for leaving for it, because if the survive they will be the new AAC they’ll get 7-10 million a year. Sure that’s better than what the AAC gets or what’s left of it will get, but don’t fool yourselves it’s now a tweener league.

Yes, joining the L8 if invited is (a) an easy 'yes' for any AAC school to make, but (b) it's like joining the Big East 10 years ago after the top brands had left for the ACC and Big 12. You're not joining a "power" league anymore.

Who cares if it’s a power league or not...is it more $$? Is it a better slate of opponents that your fan base, doors, and recruits will be more excited about? Is it a better basketball conference?

If the answer is yes to any (or all) of those, you run, not walk from the AAC.

(07-27-2021 10:13 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 10:03 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 10:01 AM)Cubanbull1 Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 09:53 AM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  Mandel basically saying the new B12 = the AAC in TV value.

Stewart Mandel
@slmandel
·
1h
What value would the Big 12's Left-Behind 8 bring to a new conference?

I combed through every Big 12 TV game from 2018 and '19 not involving Texas or Oklahoma.

It's ... humbling.

Anyone thinking that league will get 20 million a year regardless of 2ho they add is dreaming.
I don’t blame anyone in AAC for leaving for it, because if the survive they will be the new AAC they’ll get 7-10 million a year. Sure that’s better than what the AAC gets or what’s left of it will get, but don’t fool yourselves it’s now a tweener league.

Yes, joining the L8 if invited is (a) an easy 'yes' for any AAC school to make, but (b) it's like joining the Big East 10 years ago after the top brands had left for the ACC and Big 12. You're not joining a "power" league anymore.

Who cares if it’s a power league or not...is it more $$? Is it a better slate of opponents that your fan base, doors, and recruits will be more excited about? Is it a better basketball conference?

If the answer is yes to any (or all) of those, you run, not walk from the AAC.

Thats squarely where I am at. After playing in the Big East, it was hard to get excited about some of the games we play now. Its not a dig on any team but Id rather play with OSU, Kansas, ISU, Tech, Baylor, TCU and WVU.... especially WVU. USF had a solid rivalry with them and knocked them off multiple times.

If we can keep all the teams that we enjoy now, plus add in those while getting more money... I am all for it.

I think theres more income from a rebuilt Big 12 then there is an AAC that adds a couple leftover teams.

Plus I love the idea of 4 schools in texas. Guarantees us two trips per year, minimum.

As Pete Thamel stated in his column, ESPN is heavily invested with SEC and will be putting more money out for the 12 team national playoff. This might put a damper on tv contracts for all the other conferences.

(07-27-2021 10:28 AM)mtmedlin Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 10:13 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 10:03 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 10:01 AM)Cubanbull1 Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 09:53 AM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  Mandel basically saying the new B12 = the AAC in TV value.

Stewart Mandel
@slmandel
·
1h
What value would the Big 12's Left-Behind 8 bring to a new conference?

I combed through every Big 12 TV game from 2018 and '19 not involving Texas or Oklahoma.

It's ... humbling.

Anyone thinking that league will get 20 million a year regardless of 2ho they add is dreaming.
I don’t blame anyone in AAC for leaving for it, because if the survive they will be the new AAC they’ll get 7-10 million a year. Sure that’s better than what the AAC gets or what’s left of it will get, but don’t fool yourselves it’s now a tweener league.

Yes, joining the L8 if invited is (a) an easy 'yes' for any AAC school to make, but (b) it's like joining the Big East 10 years ago after the top brands had left for the ACC and Big 12. You're not joining a "power" league anymore.

Who cares if it’s a power league or not...is it more $$? Is it a better slate of opponents that your fan base, doors, and recruits will be more excited about? Is it a better basketball conference?

If the answer is yes to any (or all) of those, you run, not walk from the AAC.

Thats squarely where I am at. After playing in the Big East, it was hard to get excited about some of the games we play now. Its not a dig on any team but Id rather play with OSU, Kansas, ISU, Tech, Baylor, TCU and WVU.... especially WVU. USF had a solid rivalry with them and knocked them off multiple times.

If we can keep all the teams that we enjoy now, plus add in those while getting more money... I am all for it.

I think theres more income from a rebuilt Big 12 then there is an AAC that adds a couple leftover teams.

Plus I love the idea of 4 schools in texas. Guarantees us two trips per year, minimum.

While I understand what you are saying, don’t get too far ahead of yourself. I think many on this board are going to be surprised when the dust settles and they are still in the AAC

(07-27-2021 10:32 AM)Cubanbull1 Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 10:28 AM)mtmedlin Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 10:13 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 10:03 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 10:01 AM)Cubanbull1 Wrote:  Anyone thinking that league will get 20 million a year regardless of 2ho they add is dreaming.
I don’t blame anyone in AAC for leaving for it, because if the survive they will be the new AAC they’ll get 7-10 million a year. Sure that’s better than what the AAC gets or what’s left of it will get, but don’t fool yourselves it’s now a tweener league.

Yes, joining the L8 if invited is (a) an easy 'yes' for any AAC school to make, but (b) it's like joining the Big East 10 years ago after the top brands had left for the ACC and Big 12. You're not joining a "power" league anymore.

Who cares if it’s a power league or not...is it more $$? Is it a better slate of opponents that your fan base, doors, and recruits will be more excited about? Is it a better basketball conference?

If the answer is yes to any (or all) of those, you run, not walk from the AAC.

Thats squarely where I am at. After playing in the Big East, it was hard to get excited about some of the games we play now. Its not a dig on any team but Id rather play with OSU, Kansas, ISU, Tech, Baylor, TCU and WVU.... especially WVU. USF had a solid rivalry with them and knocked them off multiple times.

If we can keep all the teams that we enjoy now, plus add in those while getting more money... I am all for it.

I think theres more income from a rebuilt Big 12 then there is an AAC that adds a couple leftover teams.

Plus I love the idea of 4 schools in texas. Guarantees us two trips per year, minimum.

While I understand what you are saying, don’t get too far ahead of yourself. I think many on this board are going to be surprised when the dust settles and they are still in the AAC

I’m guessing all...

(07-27-2021 10:34 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 10:32 AM)Cubanbull1 Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 10:28 AM)mtmedlin Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 10:13 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 10:03 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Yes, joining the L8 if invited is (a) an easy 'yes' for any AAC school to make, but (b) it's like joining the Big East 10 years ago after the top brands had left for the ACC and Big 12. You're not joining a "power" league anymore.

Who cares if it’s a power league or not...is it more $$? Is it a better slate of opponents that your fan base, doors, and recruits will be more excited about? Is it a better basketball conference?

If the answer is yes to any (or all) of those, you run, not walk from the AAC.

Thats squarely where I am at. After playing in the Big East, it was hard to get excited about some of the games we play now. Its not a dig on any team but Id rather play with OSU, Kansas, ISU, Tech, Baylor, TCU and WVU.... especially WVU. USF had a solid rivalry with them and knocked them off multiple times.

If we can keep all the teams that we enjoy now, plus add in those while getting more money... I am all for it.

I think theres more income from a rebuilt Big 12 then there is an AAC that adds a couple leftover teams.

Plus I love the idea of 4 schools in texas. Guarantees us two trips per year, minimum.

While I understand what you are saying, don’t get too far ahead of yourself. I think many on this board are going to be surprised when the dust settles and they are still in the AAC

I’m guessing all...

Could be……. Is not like the leftovers and their fans are going to be jumping for joy in seeing any AAC teams in their schedules

(07-27-2021 10:13 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 10:03 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 10:01 AM)Cubanbull1 Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 09:53 AM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  Mandel basically saying the new B12 = the AAC in TV value.

Stewart Mandel
@slmandel
·
1h
What value would the Big 12's Left-Behind 8 bring to a new conference?

I combed through every Big 12 TV game from 2018 and '19 not involving Texas or Oklahoma.

It's ... humbling.

Anyone thinking that league will get 20 million a year regardless of 2ho they add is dreaming.
I don’t blame anyone in AAC for leaving for it, because if the survive they will be the new AAC they’ll get 7-10 million a year. Sure that’s better than what the AAC gets or what’s left of it will get, but don’t fool yourselves it’s now a tweener league.

Yes, joining the L8 if invited is (a) an easy 'yes' for any AAC school to make, but (b) it's like joining the Big East 10 years ago after the top brands had left for the ACC and Big 12. You're not joining a "power" league anymore.

Who cares if it’s a power league or not...is it more $$? Is it a better slate of opponents that your fan base, doors, and recruits will be more excited about? Is it a better basketball conference?

If the answer is yes to any (or all) of those, you run, not walk from the AAC.

Well I think almost everyone does.

(07-27-2021 10:36 AM)Cubanbull1 Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 10:34 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 10:32 AM)Cubanbull1 Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 10:28 AM)mtmedlin Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 10:13 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  Who cares if it’s a power league or not...is it more $$? Is it a better slate of opponents that your fan base, doors, and recruits will be more excited about? Is it a better basketball conference?

If the answer is yes to any (or all) of those, you run, not walk from the AAC.

Thats squarely where I am at. After playing in the Big East, it was hard to get excited about some of the games we play now. Its not a dig on any team but Id rather play with OSU, Kansas, ISU, Tech, Baylor, TCU and WVU.... especially WVU. USF had a solid rivalry with them and knocked them off multiple times.

If we can keep all the teams that we enjoy now, plus add in those while getting more money... I am all for it.

I think theres more income from a rebuilt Big 12 then there is an AAC that adds a couple leftover teams.

Plus I love the idea of 4 schools in texas. Guarantees us two trips per year, minimum.

While I understand what you are saying, don’t get too far ahead of yourself. I think many on this board are going to be surprised when the dust settles and they are still in the AAC

I’m guessing all...

Could be……. Is not like the leftovers and their fans are going to be jumping for joy in seeing any AAC teams in their schedules

Some are starring down the Barrel of becoming a MWC member... There are a lot of Big 12 teams that highly over value themselves.

WVU has already been turned down by the ACC before, twice.
Kansas has been turned down by the Big 10, Twice.

Theres so much speculation as to where they all go and personally, I think all 8 will still be there. They will play it off as "we are strong and deserve to rebuild this conference" but truth is, they dont have options.

For example, when the Big 10 gets its new deal, at a minimum they will pay out $60 million. Theres nobody available that is worth that.

(07-27-2021 08:28 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  

(07-26-2021 06:38 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(07-26-2021 06:07 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  I think a 12 team playoff is to ensure that 8 spots go to the SEC and B10

Don't disagree with that, but unless they change the format to only 5 auto conference bids it's not going to change much. The new B12 wouldn't get any more bids than maybe the 1 conference auto bid same as the AAC.

Actually it does make a difference, The new B12 will likely never get 2 bids. As it sits now it could. The G5 will never get 2, The Pac and ACC rarely will get 2. So the SEC and Big10 will usually share all 6 of the at large bids. The $$$ difference between the 2 big conf and everyone else will continue to grow.

It sounds like we are saying the same thing. I'm saying the access level to the playoff for the AAC and whatever the new version of the B12 will be essentially the same. Neither league will ever get an at large bid and will at best get the 1 conference champ bid.

I would think if 4-8 Big 12 schools along with the best of say AAC, MWC and BYU joined up, it would be comparable in strength and value to the old Big East Football Conference with WVU, Pitt, Louisville, SU, Cincy, UConn, USF & Rutgers. Maybe slightly better.

Of course, no one really accepted that conference and it was eventually killed off so there's that.

Update
new big 12 gets a 6 year extension and a PAY increase... goes from 20 mil to 28 mil per

and each school likely gets to retain their tier 3 rights (or a 2nd tv deal will be done for that later)

increased in value, it didnt decrease