Spitballing while we wait for The Alliance to come and to go ...

1. UNC-Both: Greg Sankey and Kevin Warren (with Jim Delany lurking in the back seat) each would leave their respective offices right now for Chapel Hill with the papers and pen in hand. The Belle of the Ball.

2-3.Clemson and FSU-SEC: A BOGO as my wife tells me its called. Don't wanna go to the B1G, SEC wouldn't let 'em go to the B1G and the B1G ain't sending invites to schools -- AAU or otherwise -- they know wouldn't accept. A done deal at some point.

4. UVA-B1G: Believe the SEC would take the Hoos (and No. 5 as well) in a hot minute if that ensured the Heels would come, too. BUT the University of Virginia joining the SEC would be akin to Harvard becoming part of the Big East. Not a fit in the past, now or in the future.

5. Duke-B1G: Duke might be in the South, but — as anyone who lives near The Triangle would tell you — Duke is not of the South. Would be an even more of a square peg in a round hole in the SEC than Vanderbilt, which is saying something. Devils can be the Northwestern of the B1G's "Eastern Division" with a much better basketball program and a much worse football program.

6. Miami-Maybe both. Maybe neither: Okay, here's where it gets interesting.Still a name brand in College Football, albeit a bit weathered (don't get me started ). A good school academically, probably would fit in the top third of the SEC and somewhere near the middle of the B1G. But it's a smallish private institution with a mostly indifferent fan base playing football in an NFL stadium 21 miles from campus. Hardly the SEC or B1G ideal going forward. Howeverrrrr ... could envision ESPN and in particular FOX pushing to add a big name program with a storied history to its inventory. Personally, I'm hoping for the SEC knowing full well UF and FSU will throw a collective fit and probably the only way it happens is because the SEC/ESPN doesn't want the B1G/FOX to have us.

7. Georgia Tech-Maybe both. Maybe neither: Similar boat to the Canes, but with different circumstances. Located in ground zero for the SEC, but without the national appeal of Miami. Probably got a shot if the SEC and/or B1G goes to 20 teams and a much better one if Sankey and/or Warren decide to make it an even two dozen.

8-9. Virginia Tech and NC State-SEC or bust. The B1G ain't happening for the Hokies or Pack. Both schools should be on their knees praying each morning that if the ACC implodes, UNC is going to the B1G. That oughtta get the dominoes falling in the right direction. I think they'd be solid fits, too. SEC doesn't need every new addition to be a three-time National Champion like FSU or Clemson. Somebody gotta take some lumps.

10. Louisville-SEC longshot. Don't see it working out for the Cards unless somehow the SEC was determined to get to 24 and a few of Sankey's targets ended up elsewhere.

11. Pitt-Neither.Too far in the shadows of both the Steelers and Penn State. That day 22 years ago the Panthers vacated Pitt Stadium and left campus for an NFL facility was the day they dropped off the radar of a conference like the B1G.

12-13. BC and Syracuse-Neither. Did you know the Eagles are only 6 games under .500 in the ACC since joining in 2005? Better than I would've thought. Cuse has been much less successful at 20-46 since getting promoted from the Big East in 2013. Maybe BC could get a miracle invite to the B1G, but that seems less likely than another Hail Flutie.

14. Wake-Neither. If a draft was held for the "Power 5" schools, it seems like a fairly safe bet the Deacs would go 65th and last. Be interesting to see how things shake out for WF if/when the ACC is picked apart.

None.

All of them, but only to the SEC. Of course, the B1G, Pac-12, and what is left of the Big 12 will be included in this new SEC.

UNC isn't going to be the first to leave. Something would have to trigger an existential threat to the ACC for them to consider leaving. And if one were to happen, I'd say that they would insist on Virginia and Duke being invited at the same time.

The problem is that the B1G doesn't really need any more mediocre football programs. They already have that in spades, and not one, but three, more is a bridge too far. The SEC though could afford to take weak football programs that bring elite hoops, and those three do that. But three is too many even for them when they are already at 16 members.

I just don't see the ACC breaking apart at this point.

(08-20-2021 12:11 PM)ken d Wrote:  UNC isn't going to be the first to leave. Something would have to trigger an existential threat to the ACC for them to consider leaving. And if one were to happen, I'd say that they would insist on Virginia and Duke being invited at the same time.

The problem is that the B1G doesn't really need any more mediocre football programs. They already have that in spades, and not one, but three, more is a bridge too far. The SEC though could afford to take weak football programs that bring elite hoops, and those three do that. But three is too many even for them when they are already at 16 members.

I just don't see the ACC breaking apart at this point.

This.

The BIG, the Pac, and the ACC started talking about an alliance. There are other ways to increase the conference revenues.

Re: Duke, what is the basketball program going to be like in a few years? It may look more like Wake than UNC. And after Cutcliffe retires, football could go the same way.

Big Ten (in order):

1. North Carolina
2. Virginia
3. Georgia Tech
4. Duke
5. Miami
6. Florida State

Research level matters, Miami is close to AAU membership requirements. Actually have a better hold on their market and better culture fit than Florida State. Also have been better recently. Easier for the CEO's of the B1G to swallow. Flagship is still huge. UNC and UVa thus top the list -- UNC quite a bit more valuable than UVa. GT is surprisingly strong following despite consistent mediocrity, gives you Atlanta seat and has the academic chops.

SEC

1. North Carolina
2. Clemson
3. Virginia
4. Florida State
5. Virginia Tech
6. Miami

Flagship matters. The SEC has 12 flagships, plus AAU members A&M and Vandy. Clemson is just so strong they bully their way on the list. Miami is underrated as a property.

In the end the SEC may not add anyone unless they decide they must have Clemson. UNC is break even and the rest don't add as much to the pie as they would take.

none

(08-20-2021 01:12 PM)DFW HOYA Wrote:  Re: Duke, what is the basketball program going to be like in a few years? It may look more like Wake than UNC. And after Cutcliffe retires, football could go the same way.

Ehhh, as much as I would enjoy that, I don’t think the Cameron Crazy culture is going anywhere.

(08-20-2021 11:40 AM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  Spitballing while we wait for The Alliance to come and to go ...

1. UNC-Both: Greg Sankey and Kevin Warren (with Jim Delany lurking in the back seat) each would leave their respective offices right now for Chapel Hill with the papers and pen in hand. The Belle of the Ball.

2-3.Clemson and FSU-SEC: A BOGO as my wife tells me its called. Don't wanna go to the B1G, SEC wouldn't let 'em go to the B1G and the B1G ain't sending invites to schools -- AAU or otherwise -- they know wouldn't accept. A done deal at some point.

4. UVA-B1G: Believe the SEC would take the Hoos (and No. 5 as well) in a hot minute if that ensured the Heels would come, too. BUT the University of Virginia joining the SEC would be akin to Harvard becoming part of the Big East. Not a fit in the past, now or in the future.

5. Duke-B1G: Duke might be in the South, but — as anyone who lives near The Triangle would tell you — Duke is not of the South. Would be an even more of a square peg in a round hole in the SEC than Vanderbilt, which is saying something. Devils can be the Northwestern of the B1G's "Eastern Division" with a much better basketball program and a much worse football program.

6. Miami-Maybe both. Maybe neither: Okay, here's where it gets interesting.Still a name brand in College Football, albeit a bit weathered (don't get me started ). A good school academically, probably would fit in the top third of the SEC and somewhere near the middle of the B1G. But it's a smallish private institution with a mostly indifferent fan base playing football in an NFL stadium 21 miles from campus. Hardly the SEC or B1G ideal going forward. But could envision ESPN and in particular FOX pushing to add a big name program with a storied history to its inventory. Personally, I'm hoping for the SEC knowing full well UF and FSU will throw a collective fit and probably the only way it happens is because the SEC/ESPN doesn't want the B1G/FOX to have us.

7. Georgia Tech-Maybe both. Maybe neither: Similar boat to the Canes, but with different circumstances. Located in ground zero for the SEC, but without the national appeal of Miami. Probably got a shot if the SEC and/or B1G goes to 20 teams and a much better one if Sankey and/or Warren decide to make it an even two dozen.

8-9. Virginia Tech and NC State-SEC or bust. The B1G ain't happening for the Hokies or Pack. Both schools should be on their knees praying each morning that if the ACC implodes, UNC is going to the B1G. That oughtta get the dominoes falling in the right direction. I think they'd be solid fits, too. SEC doesn't need every new addition to be a three-time National Champion like FSU or Clemson. Somebody gotta take some lumps.

10. Louisville-SEC longshot. Don't see it working out for the Cards unless somehow the SEC was determined to get to 24 and a few of Sankey's targets ended up elsewhere.

11. Pitt-Neither.Too far in the shadows of both the Steelers and Penn State. That day 22 years ago the Panthers vacated Pitt Stadium and left campus for an NFL facility was the day they dropped off the radar of a conference like the B1G.

12-13. BC and Syracuse-Neither. Did you know the Eagles are only 6 games under .500 in the ACC since joining in 2005? Better than I would've thought. Cuse has been much less successful at 20-46 since getting promoted from the Big East in 2013. Maybe BC could get a miracle invite to the B1G, but that seems less likely than another Hail Flutie.

14. Wake-Neither. If a draft was held for the "Power 5" schools, it seems like a fairly safe bet the Deacs would go 65th and last. Be interesting to see how things shake out for WF if/when the ACC is picked apart.

This is a strong and accurate overview. I basically agree. Well done.

This is all in the world of what is possible, not necessarily probable (yet) or inevitable.

B1G: Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Virginia
SEC: Clemson, Duke, Florida St, Georgia Tech, Louisville, North Carolina, North Carolina St, Notre Dame, Virginia, Virginia Tech
Neither: Boston College, Wake Forest

Assuming all ACC schools are willing and able to jump ship, I expect:
- Duke, North Carolina, and Virginia to stick together
- Notre Dame to have a difficult time convincing either B1G or SEC to continue a relationship similar to their current deal with the ACC
- At least 1 surprise (e.g. North Carolina St or Virginia Tech to B1G)
- No more than 10 of the current 15 ACC schools to be members of the B1G and SEC (probably closer to 4-6)

(08-20-2021 01:51 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  This is all in the world of what is possible, not necessarily probable (yet) or inevitable.

B1G: Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Virginia
SEC: Clemson, Duke, Florida St, Georgia Tech, Louisville, North Carolina, North Carolina St, Notre Dame, Virginia, Virginia Tech
Neither: Boston College, Wake Forest

Assuming all ACC schools are willing and able to jump ship, I expect:
- Duke, North Carolina, and Virginia to stick together
- Notre Dame to have a difficult time convincing either B1G or SEC to continue a relationship similar to their current deal with the ACC
- At least 1 surprise (e.g. North Carolina St or Virginia Tech to B1G)
- No more than 10 of the current 15 ACC schools to be members of the B1G and SEC (probably closer to 4-6)

I pretty much agree with your hypotheticals. But when you get down to the details, there are enough "must haves" (like UNC, UVa and Duke staying together) that make it very difficult to make it work for either the B1G or the SEC. Given the GoR that's a strong obstacle to begin with, something unusual is going to have to happen before the ACC splinters.

(08-20-2021 02:09 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(08-20-2021 01:51 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  This is all in the world of what is possible, not necessarily probable (yet) or inevitable.

B1G: Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Virginia
SEC: Clemson, Duke, Florida St, Georgia Tech, Louisville, North Carolina, North Carolina St, Notre Dame, Virginia, Virginia Tech
Neither: Boston College, Wake Forest

Assuming all ACC schools are willing and able to jump ship, I expect:
- Duke, North Carolina, and Virginia to stick together
- Notre Dame to have a difficult time convincing either B1G or SEC to continue a relationship similar to their current deal with the ACC
- At least 1 surprise (e.g. North Carolina St or Virginia Tech to B1G)
- No more than 10 of the current 15 ACC schools to be members of the B1G and SEC (probably closer to 4-6)

I pretty much agree with your hypotheticals. But when you get down to the details, there are enough "must haves" (like UNC, UVa and Duke staying together) that make it very difficult to make it work for either the B1G or the SEC. Given the GoR that's a strong obstacle to begin with, something unusual is going to have to happen before the ACC splinters.

It's not that hard Ken D.

SEC: Clemson, Florida State, and if ESPN wants, either UNC or NCst & Va Tech, or UNC/Duke

B1G: Virginia, Georgia Tech, Miami, and either N.C. St, UNC, Duke, or UNC & Duke with either N.D., Kansas, or Pitt to 6.

Note: It is because ESPN will want to hold onto the full rights of UNC that I list them for the SEC.

Should eveyone be stunned again and N.D. opt for the SEC it would be interesting to see who is culled.

And then there is this:

PAC: Notre Dame, Pitt, Syracuse, Boston College all of whom join for football only and keep hoops and minor sports in the Big East.

PAC also adds Texas Tech, T.C.U., 1 of Kansas/Kansas St/Iowa State and WVU (who also places all other sports in the Big East and joins the ACC 4 in an Eastern 5 team football only division).

Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, Washington, Washington State
Arizona, Arizona State, California, California Los Angeles, Southern Cal
Colorado, Kansas, Texas Christian, Texas Tech, Utah
Boston College, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia

(08-20-2021 01:35 PM)esayem Wrote:  

(08-20-2021 01:12 PM)DFW HOYA Wrote:  Re: Duke, what is the basketball program going to be like in a few years? It may look more like Wake than UNC. And after Cutcliffe retires, football could go the same way.

Ehhh, as much as I would enjoy that, I don’t think the Cameron Crazy culture is going anywhere.

Jon Scheyer is not Mike Krzyzewski, just like Les Robinson wasn't Jim Valvano.

(08-20-2021 01:35 PM)esayem Wrote:  

(08-20-2021 01:12 PM)DFW HOYA Wrote:  Re: Duke, what is the basketball program going to be like in a few years? It may look more like Wake than UNC. And after Cutcliffe retires, football could go the same way.

Ehhh, as much as I would enjoy that, I don’t think the Cameron Crazy culture is going anywhere.

If I were Duke I would do whatever it took to make the ACC stronger and wealthier.

Duke is a basketball school and Kansas has just shown what happens to basketball schools in football oriented realignment

(08-20-2021 01:51 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  This is all in the world of what is possible, not necessarily probable (yet) or inevitable.

B1G: Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Virginia
SEC: Clemson, Duke, Florida St, Georgia Tech, Louisville, North Carolina, North Carolina St, Notre Dame, Virginia, Virginia Tech
Neither: Boston College, Wake Forest

Assuming all ACC schools are willing and able to jump ship, I expect:
1. Duke, North Carolina, and Virginia to stick together
2. Notre Dame to have a difficult time convincing either B1G or SEC to continue a relationship similar to their current deal with the ACC
3. At least 1 surprise (e.g. North Carolina St or Virginia Tech to B1G)
4. No more than 10 of the current 15 ACC schools to be members of the B1G and SEC (probably closer to 4-6)

To your points:

1. Absolutely on Duke, UNC and UVA staying together. IMO, a large part of why B1G has an edge over SEC for the Heels

2. If B1G and SEC stripmine ACC, seems like ND's only options are a hodge-podge "alliance" (there's that word again) with leftovers from ACC/Big 12 OR (drumroll) holding its nose and joining the B1G. Will let others weigh in on which option is more likely, but we'd all probably agree on the one that makes more sense.

3. Don't have a feel for any real surprises

4. I'll go with a total of 8 to the new Super 2 conferences: UNC, UVA and Duke to the B1G (plus Notre Dame); Clemson, FSU, NCSU, VPI and Georgia Tech to the SEC. The leftovers would be Miami, Louisville, Pitt, BC, Syracuse and Wake. That result for the Canes would be devastating (actually worse), but the good thing is I end up being wrong a lot more than right.

(08-20-2021 01:35 PM)esayem Wrote:  

(08-20-2021 01:12 PM)DFW HOYA Wrote:  Re: Duke, what is the basketball program going to be like in a few years? It may look more like Wake than UNC. And after Cutcliffe retires, football could go the same way.

Ehhh, as much as I would enjoy that, I don’t think the Cameron Crazy culture is going anywhere.

Also, Duke isn't merely a good school academically - it's an uber-elite university (generally #2 for undergrad among all FBS schools after Stanford). The Big Ten would take them no questions asked - it's not even a debate.

At least for my generation, Duke is what Notre Dame used to be as the school that generates an excess amount of hate from everyone. Their national brand in basketball is so overwhelmingly powerful and coupled with uber-elite academics that it needs to be evaluated in a completely different manner as a "normal" school (even with a world where realignment is driven by football). Let's put it this way: if Kansas had Duke's academics, they'd be in the Big Ten already.

(08-20-2021 02:36 PM)DFW HOYA Wrote:  

(08-20-2021 01:35 PM)esayem Wrote:  

(08-20-2021 01:12 PM)DFW HOYA Wrote:  Re: Duke, what is the basketball program going to be like in a few years? It may look more like Wake than UNC. And after Cutcliffe retires, football could go the same way.

Ehhh, as much as I would enjoy that, I don’t think the Cameron Crazy culture is going anywhere.

Jon Scheyer is not Mike Krzyzewski, just like Les Robinson wasn't Jim Valvano.

There's no school that I love to see lose more than Duke, but as satisfying as it would be to see them somehow left out of the power structure, the fact that they can generate so much intense hatred from sports fans that have absolutely no connection to any of their rivals is what makes them uniquely valuable. Their national brand coupled with uber-elite academics gives them conference realignment value far beyond what just looking at their football record would be (or what we think they'd look like after Coach K left).

Duke is the best academic school in FBS besides Stanford, directly located in one of the fastest and highest-educated metro areas in the country, and a national brand that virtually everyone outside of Duke alums absolutely hates. Even Ivy League people think Duke is full of themselves. That hatred is conversely *power* in the conference realignment game.

(08-20-2021 02:46 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  Also, Duke isn't merely a good school academically - it's an uber-elite university (generally #2 for undergrad among all FBS schools after Stanford). The Big Ten would take them no questions asked - it's not even a debate.

At least for my generation, Duke is what Notre Dame used to be as the school that generates an excess amount of hate from everyone. Their national brand in basketball is so overwhelmingly powerful and coupled with uber-elite academics that it needs to be evaluated in a completely different manner as a "normal" school (even with a world where realignment is driven by football). Let's put it this way: if Kansas had Duke's academics, they'd be in the Big Ten already.

On an academic basis, Duke can hold its own with anyone. But in this world of what a school adds to a TV contract, the post-Krzyzewski world and Duke's relatively modest football ambitions is not the first choice for any Big Ten AD--a 40,000 seat Wallace Wade Stadium (7,000 seats smaller than Ryan Field at Northwestern) and a team that ranks ahead of only Wake Forest in ACC average attendance--and that's versus opponents which can still send fans there by car, not by plane.

Some schools work best in one conference and not in others (were it not for the post-2013 Big East, I'm sometimes hard-pressed to see what major conference would have taken Georgetown given its unusual mix of 30 sports but with low-wattage football.) In that sense, Duke is an optimal fit in the ACC. It may not be the ACC of old in the future, but a Power 3 aren't adding "another Vanderbilt" if they don't have to. This precludes the scenario that UNC and Duke become a package deal, however.

From a culture standpoint, Clemson is the most “SEC-like” school not currently in or soon to be in the SEC. However, the SEC is not going to offer an invitation to Clemson just because of culture. As JR has pointed out many times, Clemson would be middle of the SEC pack in terms of attendance and overall value so this provides no incentive for the SEC to offer an invitation. Clemson does not provide access to a new state as USC already has that covered. I think that FSU, UNC, Va Tech, and NC State would all be ahead of Clemson on the SEC’s wish list at this point in time. The sole reason I see Clemson being offered an invitation to the SEC would be to prevent Clemson from moving to the BIG and that is highly unlikely both from Clemson’s perspective and from the BIG’s perspective. Clemson will not be invited to join the SEC until if/when the SEC expands to 24 teams or more.