They actually might if Rice and UAB are chosen by the American. Rice besides their academic resume that will make SMU and Tulane happy, also nicely replaces Houston for Navy's Texas schedule requirement. UAB fits nicely for South Florida and Temple, makes sense for Memphis and ECU as regional foe.

But For CUSA that leaves them with 3 Texas schools, Louisiana Tech and Southern Miss in the west, just five schools and then a cluster of 5 in the upper southeast in Marshall, WKU, Middle Tennessee, Charlotte and ODU plus two more in Miami with FAU and FIU.

I suppose you could split the Miami schools making their game a locked in rivalry. One plays the east the other the west. There isn't much choice anyway, all games with F_Us are flights to Miami-Dade anyway. I guess that's how you handle it.

(09-07-2021 06:07 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  They actually might if Rice and UAB are chosen by the American. Rice besides their academic resume that will make SMU and Tulane happy, also nicely replaces Houston for Navy's Texas schedule requirement. UAB fits nicely for South Florida and Temple, makes sense for Memphis and ECU as regional foe.

But For CUSA that leaves them with 3 Texas schools, Louisiana Tech and Southern Miss in the west, just five schools and then a cluster of 5 in the upper southeast in Marshall, WKU, Middle Tennessee, Charlotte and ODU plus two more in Miami with FAU and FIU.

I suppose you could split the Miami schools making their game a locked in rivalry. One plays the east the other the west. There isn't much choice anyway, all games with F_Us are flights to Miami-Dade anyway. I guess that's how you handle it.

That's what I would do if CUSA lost 2 western members.

Florida schools are flying everywhere anyways

(09-07-2021 06:07 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  They actually might if Rice and UAB are chosen by the American. Rice besides their academic resume that will make SMU and Tulane happy, also nicely replaces Houston for Navy's Texas schedule requirement. UAB fits nicely for South Florida and Temple, makes sense for Memphis and ECU as regional foe.

But For CUSA that leaves them with 3 Texas schools, Louisiana Tech and Southern Miss in the west, just five schools and then a cluster of 5 in the upper southeast in Marshall, WKU, Middle Tennessee, Charlotte and ODU plus two more in Miami with FAU and FIU.

I suppose you could split the Miami schools making their game a locked in rivalry. One plays the east the other the west. There isn't much choice anyway, all games with F_Us are flights to Miami-Dade anyway. I guess that's how you handle it.

Yeah, that's why I'm hoping UTA finds a way into the MVC or maybe Summit to allow for Marshall to join the SBC. That way, C-USA adds NMSU to allow for more reasonable and geographical divisions or even 3 pods of 4 teams.

East/North:
ODU
UNCC
FAU/MTSU
FIU/WKU

Central/South:
MTSU/FAU
WKU/FIU
LT
USM

West:
NMSU
UNT
UTSA
UTEP

Splitting up the F_U twins would be a good compromise to keep the league together. If they tried forcing MTSU over I think Judy would have a riot on her hands from the East schools.

(09-05-2021 07:28 PM)mikeinsec127 Wrote:  

(09-04-2021 09:59 PM)chargeradio Wrote:  Say the American takes Rice to replace Houston, and UAB to replace Cincinnati, not replace USF, and then stop at 10 members. How does C-USA divide for football?

Geography forces this oddity:

West - UTEP, UTSA, UNT, LTU, USM, MTSU
East - ODU, UNCC, Marshall, FAU, FIU, WKU

I guess this would be passable in locking MTSU-WKU as an annual crossover. Or does C-USA go full zipper?

Red - WKU, FAU, UTSA, LTU, ODU, Marshall
Blue - MTSU, FIU, UTEP, UNT, UNCC, USM

This of course might step on some toes as well.

If the American winds up losing five schools and taking four - say by replacing Memphis and South Florida with Marshall and ODU - this might be a way out of the awkward geographic scenario:

West - UTEP, UTSA, UNT, LTU, USM
East - UNCC, MTSU, WKU, FAU, FIU

I doubt the AAC takes Rice. That gives it two smaller private schools in Tx. My guess is if the AAC replaces Houston with a Tx school, it would be UTSA or TxSt.

UTSA would be a far better choice than Rice

UTSA is zero value. Made a splash coming in then faded into the Texas version of Charlotte. A commuter schools with no fan base (the big crowds vanished after a couple years) and completely apathetic campus, open admission AI level. It's not only not AAU, it's not even R1. LOL, even Houston doesn't count them as a peer.

This belongs in the Louisiana Lafayette, Southern Miss, Marshall, App State and Coastal Carolina category of adds for the American. Heck why not throw in Akron, Ball State and Arkansas State to that prestigious list. Do I hear Eastern Michigan anyone?

Think for 10 seconds what the Presidents of Tulane, Temple, Tulsa, SMU, South Florida and the Commandant of Navy will vote for, not the AD at ECU.

(09-07-2021 10:41 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  UTSA is zero value. Made a splash coming in then faded into the Texas version of Charlotte. A commuter schools with no fan base (the big crowds vanished after a couple years) and completely apathetic campus, open admission AI level. It's not only not AAU, it's not even R1. LOL, even Houston doesn't count them as a peer.

This belongs in the Louisiana Lafayette, Southern Miss, Marshall, App State and Coastal Carolina category of adds for the American. Heck why not throw in Akron, Ball State and Arkansas State to that prestigious list. Do I hear Eastern Michigan anyone?

Think for 10 seconds what the Presidents of Tulane, Temple, Tulsa, SMU, South Florida and the Commandant of Navy will vote for, not the AD at ECU.

I'll play...

*AAU membership (or at least Carnegie Tier 1 Research status)
*Larger athletic budgets
*Whoever ESPN tells them will preserve the most value regarding their media contract.

What's my score?

(09-07-2021 11:32 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  

(09-07-2021 10:41 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  UTSA is zero value. Made a splash coming in then faded into the Texas version of Charlotte. A commuter schools with no fan base (the big crowds vanished after a couple years) and completely apathetic campus, open admission AI level. It's not only not AAU, it's not even R1. LOL, even Houston doesn't count them as a peer.

This belongs in the Louisiana Lafayette, Southern Miss, Marshall, App State and Coastal Carolina category of adds for the American. Heck why not throw in Akron, Ball State and Arkansas State to that prestigious list. Do I hear Eastern Michigan anyone?

Think for 10 seconds what the Presidents of Tulane, Temple, Tulsa, SMU, South Florida and the Commandant of Navy will vote for, not the AD at ECU.

I'll play...

*AAU membership (or at least Carnegie Tier 1 Research status)
*Larger athletic budgets
*Whoever ESPN tells them will preserve the most value regarding their media contract.

What's my score?

You didn't vote for UTSA or Marshall, so a B+ on the first quiz

.

How likely is it that two CUSA teams will be joining the AAC between now and 2025?

The chances of that happening could be below 50/50; perhaps far lower than that.

It's even possible that CUSA membership won't lose any members before 2025.

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Q: How many new members will the AAC have to add?

A: One, most likely in 2023 or 2024, to meet the NCAA minimum of 8 full members, starting with the first season after UC, UCF, & UH leave.

Q: But that would only leave them with 9 teams. Won't they add want at least 10?

A: From the standpoint of the majority of AAC members, the answer may be "no."

Q: Why is that?

A: Three of the remaining AAC members expect to switch to the Big 12 in a few years, and if they wouldn't benefit in any way from voting to add more than one new member, they would have enough votes to prevent the addition of >1 school.

--Further, the AAC has shown little or no interest in adding teams since 2016, when they added Wichita State.

--They even failed to replace UConn, despite Boise State's interest in joining.

.

AAC fan opinion on adding new members:

A surprising number of fans on the AAC messae board support the idea of adding only one or two members to replace Cincy, UCF, and Houston. Most seem to support adding either 2 or, at most, 3 new members.

Many support adding one or two CUSA school(s), but there are also many who propose adding SBC school(s), MWC school(s), Army, Liberty, and/or Buffalo.

The schools getting the most discussion include Army, App. St., Louisiana, UAB, and Marshall, followed close behind by Liberty, Buffalo, & LTU. Others mentioned include Georgia St., UNCC, FAU, Rice, and a scattering of others.

If they were to recommend a "short list" of 3 schools for the AAC to add as new members, it appears possible there might be only one CUSA and one SBC school (or one CUSA and 2 SBC schools) on the list.

.

UAB and Marshall are the two CUSA schools that are getting the most attention, followed by LTU, which is followed by Rice - - if adding an AAU school is considered a high priority. FAU is being described as a possibility if UCF and USF both join the Big 12.

.

Q: What about the situation after 2025?

A: There could, be bigger changes in the works after the Big 12 adds Memphis, USF, SMU, & BYU, assuming that they follow through with that plan by the end of the decade.

The AAC would lose 6 members, and would be left with 4 of its original members, and Navy/Wichita, if they stay on.

This is what I would predict, if they just add one FB/BB member (e.g., App. St FB / St. Louis BB)) before 2025:

AAC (2021-2025, or until the Big 12 announces its second round of expansion):

1. Navy/Wichita St.
2. Temple
3. Tulane
4. Tulsa
5. ECU
6. Memphis
7. USF
8. SMU
9. App. State/St. Louis

When it is confirmed that USF, Memphis, and SMU will be leaving, officially, the remaining AAC members would then schedule take a vote of their own on what the next round of revisions would be.

Free to add as many new members as they wish to - and to agree to a GOR agreement to help stabilize the conference, if they wish - my guess would be that they would rebuild the AAC into a 10 or 12-member conference, if they can persuade enough quality schools to join it.

We have no idea who is getting the most attention outside of our forum-bubble. All we do is speculate but things could be really different when all the presidents/AD's are in the room. Teams we would think are knockout picks aren't even in the conversation/teams we would never choose are high in the pecking order.

(09-07-2021 10:41 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  UTSA is zero value. Made a splash coming in then faded into the Texas version of Charlotte. A commuter schools with no fan base (the big crowds vanished after a couple years) and completely apathetic campus, open admission AI level. It's not only not AAU, it's not even R1. LOL, even Houston doesn't count them as a peer.

This belongs in the Louisiana Lafayette, Southern Miss, Marshall, App State and Coastal Carolina category of adds for the American. Heck why not throw in Akron, Ball State and Arkansas State to that prestigious list. Do I hear Eastern Michigan anyone?

Think for 10 seconds what the Presidents of Tulane, Temple, Tulsa, SMU, South Florida and the Commandant of Navy will vote for, not the AD at ECU.

Seems like a dangerous game to me. Adding a program like Rice to keep those teams happy also tanks your performance at a time where you can't really afford to. Losing UConn, Houston, Cincy, and UCF and replacing them with Rice signals the rest of the world that you no longer care about being competitive in football or men's basketball. Seems like that would piss off programs like Memphis, USF, and ECU.

Sent from my SM-G960U1 using Tapatalk

.

If anyone is interested, these are some of the alternate directions that the AAC could move in after the Big 12 announces the details of its second round of expansion, in a few years.

The impact on CUSA in most of these scenarios would be relatively mild.


Assume that Memphis, USF, and SMU end up in the Big 12 by 2028.

Scenario #1

The remaining AAC schools might invite in 2028, based these schools, based strictly on the current strength of the programs:

1. Navy/Wichita St.
2. Temple
3. Tulane
4. Tulsa
5. ECU
6. App. State/VCU (or Dayton or St. Louis)
7. Louisiana-Lafayette
8. Marshall
9. UAB
10. Buffalo
11. Louisiana Tech (OPTIONAL expansion to 12 FB/BB members)
12. Coastal Carolina/Dayton (or St. Louis) (OPTIONAL expansion to 12)


Scenario #2:

If the remaining AAC members can't rebuild the conference as in Scenario #1, their next best option would be to consider a merger.

The SBC would be the likeliest merger candidate, since

In scenario #2, they might propose a merger to the full FBS members of the Sun Belt Conference.

Merged AAC/SBC:

1. Navy/Wichita St.
2. Temple
3. Tulane
4. Tulsa
5. ECU
6. App. State/VCU (or Dayton or St. Louis)
7. Louisiana-Lafayette
8. Coastal Carolina/Dayton (or St. Louis) (OPTIONAL expansion to 12)
9. Arkansas St.
10. Georgia Southern
11. Georgia St.
12. Louisiana-Monroe
13. S. Alabama
14. Texas St.
15. Troy
16. Buffalo (AAU) to add FB/BB strength and bolster academics.


Scenario #3: Agree to a merger with the Big East Conference, which adds FB; invite Army, Buffalo, Marshall, UMass, and UConn (FB) to join

NOTE: Some former Big East FB schools, such as Syracuse and Pitt, might consider rejoining if the price is right.

New Big East FB Conference:

Northeast Division:

Temple (former Big East member)
Army (this might be the one conference that they would join)
Buffalo (good fit with Big East footprint)
UMass (good fit with Big East footprint)
UConn (FB only; former Big East member)

Southwest Division:

Navy/Wichita St.
Marshall
ECU
Tulane
Tulsa


Scenario #4: Scatter to the 4 winds

Navy becomes an independent
WSU rejoins the MVC
Temple rejoins A-10 and becomes a FB independent
Tulane, Tulsa, and ECU join CUSA or SBC

(09-05-2021 06:28 PM)Fresno St. Alum Wrote:  Does anyone think if the AAC goes to 12, Liberty gets in CUSA or SBC? Both would be at 10 or 11 & 10 if Army. 11 & 9 w/ a SBC goes to the AAC. I think CUSA goes after JMU if they drop to 10 or 11. Not sure any SBC would join CUSA.

The time for a few FCS schools to make the jump to FBS may be approaching, regardless of which conference they join.

The SBC is probably going to need to reload first, but CUSA might want to add 1 or 2 new FBS programs.

Possible SBC/CUSA adds:

JMU, Delaware, ETSU, Jacksonville St., Sam Houston St., Kennesaw St.

Possible MAC adds: S. Illinois, Youngstown St.

Possible MWC adds:

Montana, Montana St., Weber St., NDSU, South Dakota St., North Dakota,