(10-24-2021 11:34 AM)Crayton Wrote:  A somewhat boring week, upset-wise, but lots of exiting games.

Who is in your NY6 right now?

I've got (own rankings)
ORANGE: 1 Georgia vs. 4 Oklahoma
COTTON: 2 Michigan vs. 3 Alabama
ROSE: 5 Ohio St vs. 17 Oregon
SUGAR: 9 Ole Miss vs. 13 OK State
FIESTA: 6 Cincinnati vs. 7 Michigan St
PEACH: 11 Wake Forest* vs. 8 Notre Dame
*12 Pitt was just edged out due to having 1 more loss, but 'd be a nice rivalry game if they play ND.

What he said.

My first of weekly Playoff Projections at SB Nation's Big Ten blog:

https://www.offtackleempire.com/2021/10/...s-10-24-21

I think just flip-flop the Michigan teams. Committee meets this week. Where would you put the teams this Tuesday?

My current CFP projection

ORANGE: 1 Oklahoma vs. 4 Georgia
COTTON: 2 Alabama vs. 3 Ohio State

"If the season ended today" meaning no more games are played:
1 Georgia vs. 4 Alabama (Orange)
2 Oklahoma vs. 3 Ohio St (Cotton)
5 Michigan St vs. 15 Oregon (Rose)
6 Cincinnati vs. 9 Wake Forest (Peach)
7 Notre Dame vs. 8 Michigan (Fiesta)
10 Auburn vs. 11 Baylor (Sugar)

Still too early for me to predict. Lots of games to play. Yesterday the top 25 were 13-9 and only 3 of those losses were to other ranked teams.

But to guess what the committee will do-based partly on who ESPN was pushing all day long:

1. Georgia
2. Alabama
3. Ohio St.
4. Oklahoma
5. Michigan St.
6. Oregon
7. Michigan
8. Cincinnati
9. Notre Dame
10.Wake Forest

I just think they will find ways to push Cincinnati down. They may surprise me and actually penalize Alabama and Ohio St. for losing games.

(10-31-2021 10:11 AM)bullet Wrote:  Still too early for me to predict. Lots of games to play. Yesterday the top 25 were 13-9 and only 3 of those losses were to other ranked teams.

But to guess what the committee will do-based partly on who ESPN was pushing all day long:

1. Georgia
2. Alabama
3. Ohio St.
4. Oklahoma
5. Michigan St.
6. Oregon
7. Michigan
8. Cincinnati
9. Notre Dame
10.Wake Forest

I just think they will find ways to push Cincinnati down. They may surprise me and actually penalize Alabama and Ohio St. for losing games.

That is a good guess. I'm guessing OSU over 'Bama and Cincy over UM. MSU has a case to be over OU but it's less likely. Cincinnati could jump over both, but I think the committee will go conservative.

I see it down to 15 teams for the final 4.
Pac 12-Oregon
ACC-Wake Forest
Big 12-Oklahoma, Oklahoma St., Baylor-whoever is champion
AAC-Cincinnati
Big 10-Michigan St., Michigan, Ohio St.-whoever is champion with Michigan St. having a shot if they only lose to Ohio St. who becomes champion
Ind.-Notre Dame
SEC-Georgia, Alabama and if neither of those two is champion, a 2 loss SEC champ- Auburn, Ole Miss or Texas A&M. Kentucky has 2 losses, but can't win the SEC-UGA has already clinched the east.

And 7 for the G5-with Cincinnati, Houston and SMU the clear favorites.
SDSU, UTSA, ULL, App. St. have a shot if there are upsets in the AAC.

(10-31-2021 11:17 AM)bullet Wrote:  I see it down to 15 teams for the final 4.
Pac 12-Oregon
ACC-Wake Forest
Big 12-Oklahoma, Oklahoma St., Baylor-whoever is champion
AAC-Cincinnati
Big 10-Michigan St., Michigan, Ohio St.-whoever is champion with Michigan St. having a shot if they only lose to Ohio St. who becomes champion
Ind.-Notre Dame
SEC-Georgia, Alabama and if neither of those two is champion, a 2 loss SEC champ- Auburn, Ole Miss or Texas A&M. Kentucky has 2 losses, but can't win the SEC-UGA has already clinched the east.

And 7 for the G5-with Cincinnati, Houston and SMU the clear favorites.
SDSU, UTSA, ULL, App. St. have a shot if there are upsets in the AAC.

The G5 spot is really AAC and tough to see anyone else-
Houston- beats USF, Temple, Memphis, UConn
Cincy- beats Tulsa, USF, ECU
SMU- beats Memphis, UCF, and Tulsa

Houston is guaranteed in the AAC title game. Cincy/SMU winner would be their opponent.

no one else has any shot of being ahead of that winner.

Only realistic upsets would be Memphis vs Houston and SMU and UCF over SMU. It's really that bleak for everyone else.

And should say for the G5 spot- if Cincy loses to one of Tulsa, USF, ECU- but beats SMU and Houston- they're G5 rep guaranteed.

The other thing- SDSU needs help to just have a shot.... If Fresno beats Boise, New Mexico, and San Jose St- they are division champs and SDSU can't even make the CCG.

(10-31-2021 11:46 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-31-2021 11:17 AM)bullet Wrote:  I see it down to 15 teams for the final 4.
Pac 12-Oregon
ACC-Wake Forest
Big 12-Oklahoma, Oklahoma St., Baylor-whoever is champion
AAC-Cincinnati
Big 10-Michigan St., Michigan, Ohio St.-whoever is champion with Michigan St. having a shot if they only lose to Ohio St. who becomes champion
Ind.-Notre Dame
SEC-Georgia, Alabama and if neither of those two is champion, a 2 loss SEC champ- Auburn, Ole Miss or Texas A&M. Kentucky has 2 losses, but can't win the SEC-UGA has already clinched the east.

And 7 for the G5-with Cincinnati, Houston and SMU the clear favorites.
SDSU, UTSA, ULL, App. St. have a shot if there are upsets in the AAC.

The G5 spot is really AAC and tough to see anyone else-
Houston- beats USF, Temple, Memphis, UConn
Cincy- beats Tulsa, USF, ECU
SMU- beats Memphis, UCF, and Tulsa

Houston is guaranteed in the AAC title game. Cincy/SMU winner would be their opponent.

no one else has any shot of being ahead of that winner.

Only realistic upsets would be Memphis vs Houston and SMU and UCF over SMU. It's really that bleak for everyone else.

And should say for the G5 spot- if Cincy loses to one of Tulsa, USF, ECU- but beats SMU and Houston- they're G5 rep guaranteed.

Likely, but SMU and UH could be upset by anyone left on their schedule. They aren't good enough to assume they will beat everyone. Less likely is Cincinnati also losing to SMU and 1 other. That is what the non-AAC teams would have to hope for, a 2 loss Cincinnati or a Cincinnati that loses in the AAC ccg to a 2 loss SMU or UH.

I've now got an undefeated UTSA eclipsing 1-loss SMU/Houston Champs. The most likely scenario there is SMU defeating Cincinnati and Houston/SMU being unable to score an additional win over the Bearcats.

Other than that, it'd be some unexpected upsets in the American to open the door to other teams.

(10-31-2021 12:08 PM)Crayton Wrote:  I've now got an undefeated UTSA eclipsing 1-loss SMU/Houston Champs. The most likely scenario there is SMU defeating Cincinnati and Houston/SMU being unable to score an additional win over the Bearcats.

Other than that, it'd be some unexpected upsets in the American to open the door to other teams.

I don't think so. I think Houston could easily be ranked on Tuesday while UTSA isn't. And UTSA with what they have left would not pass Houston. Nor would they be ahead of SMU who would win out with wins over Cincy and Houston.

That's the rough part for UTSA right now.

My current hope for rankings and NY6:

1 UGA v 4 Cincy (Cotton)
2 MSU v 3 OU (Orange)
6 OR v 7 OSU (Rose)
5 AL v 10 OkSt (Sugar)
11 WF v 12 Aub (Peach)
9 ND v 8 MI (Fiesta)

(10-31-2021 12:19 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  My current hope for rankings and NY6:

1 UGA v 4 Cincy (Cotton)
2 MSU v 3 OU (Orange)
6 OR v 7 OSU (Rose)
5 AL v 10 OkSt (Sugar)
11 WF v 12 Aub (Peach)
9 ND v 8 MI (Fiesta)

I think if that was the final 4 the Georgia/Cincy game would be Orange and MSU/OU would be Cotton.

I think Michigan will be very precarious- if they lose to Ohio St which they have to to keep OSU #7.

https://www.offtackleempire.com/2021/10/...oween-2021

(10-31-2021 12:08 PM)Crayton Wrote:  I've now got an undefeated UTSA eclipsing 1-loss SMU/Houston Champs. The most likely scenario there is SMU defeating Cincinnati and Houston/SMU being unable to score an additional win over the Bearcats.

Other than that, it'd be some unexpected upsets in the American to open the door to other teams.

Zero chance an undefeated UTSA is in ahead of 1 loss Houston.

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NY6 Bowls, using tonight's rankings:
ORANGE: 1 Georgia (8-0) vs. 4 Oregon (7-1)
COTTON: 2 Alabama (7-1) vs. 3 Michigan St (8-0)
ROSE: 5 Ohio State (7-1) vs. 15 BYU (7-2, arguably the highest ranked Pac-12 team left)
SUGAR: 8 Oklahoma (9-0) vs. 13 Auburn (6-2)
PEACH: 6 Cincinnati (8-0) vs. 9 Wake Forest (8-0)
FIESTA: 7 Michigan (7-1) vs. 10 Notre Dame (7-1)

NY6 Bowls using tonight's rankings:

ORANGE: 1 Georgia vs. 4 Ohio State
COTTON: 2 Alabama vs. 3 Oregon
ROSE: 6 Michigan vs. 24 Utah
SUGAR: 11 Texas A&M vs. 8 Oklahoma
FIESTA: 9 Notre Dame vs. 7 Michigan State
PEACH: 5 Cincinnati vs. 12 Wake Forest
NEXT TWO: 13 Baylor, 14 BYU