Well we have a lot of things which have been announced, hinted, and placed on the calendar:

Calendar:

2023 B1G negotiates a new contract which means 2022 the details are hammered out.

2024 PAC 12 negotiates a new contract which means 2023 they work on their details.

2025 The New B12 negotiates a new contract which means 2024 they work theirs.

2026 The CFP contract is up.

Hinted:

For 2023 Warren talks about enhancing the basketball profile for the Big 10. With AAU as a prerequisite that places the focus on the ACC. So much for an alliance built on a handshake, and a premise of protecting amateurism which has already been impinged by NIL rulings and halted by a threatened lawsuit by Alston lawyers. With a pay for play case on the calendar for next Summer the majority of alliance objectives are now moot.

Announced:

Couple this with the new interest in agreeing with moving ahead on expansion of the CFP to 12 schools (for the payday as soon as possible) and it looks like the adverse reaction to ESPN having sole control is being swept under the rug as well. But why?
It seems the "alliance" now realizes that by refusing to cooperate they could lose their last chance to wield any influence as the SEC has been quite prepared to breakaway, and by sucking back up to ESPN and giving them what they want they have a chance to stop the breakaway for now by appeasing ESPN and using their influence to keep the SEC on a level where the alliance has some semblance of influence.

So we have a divergent pathway ahead.

If we move to a 12 school CFP we stay as we are with the NCAA likely consenting to allow pay for play in hoops. That takes hoops from 20% of all revenue to ~35 to 40% of total revenue.

If we do this we could have 4 conferences of 16 to 18, or 3 conferences of 20 or 24.

I'll leave you to make your favorite of guesses as to who goes where in each.

I do believe at 18 it is highly likely the ACC loses some schools, and top brands at that which move to close the revenue gap.

At 16 it is conceivable that the B1G could land N.D. and Kansas without touching the ACC proper. It gives the 1 major football and 1 major basketball brand and pays them well. Likely? No. Conceivable? Yes.

If the move is to 18 I see the SEC taking a Virginia school (most likely Tech) and North Carolina but only because those are the 2 that ESPN would likely want to hold onto.

I would expect the B1G to move to 18 with N.D. (big sum of money), Ga Tech (because N.D. wants a Deep South exposure for recruiting), Duke (strong presence in New York City and New England) and Virginia (beltway presence and academics).

ESPN could enhance profits by drawing the interests of the two most watched conferences to 2 states with a combined 20 million people. So this division seems most likely to me to be one ESPN would favor.

The rest of the ACC would be merged with B12 and AAC schools to preserve ESPN's dominance in the Deep South and Southwest.

Why N.D. to the B1G? ESPN actually would own a higher percentage of their total rights and against more profitable competition. So, more revenue.

Now if the Alliance schools don't agree to playoff expansion we head another way entirely.

The SEC would breakaway forming a new upper tier which would invite the cream of the other 3 conferences to join what essentially would form a super league which would be paid accordingly. Think 110 to 125 million each in media revenue and would have their own playoff for a national championship. Also think ~32 schools.

If this transpires expect quite a few all but football invitations to flesh out a new super hoops tourney for basketball only schools and some basketball first schools

So we should have quite a bit of change on the horizon which may or may not be attained through cooperation. We'll see.

(10-13-2021 01:11 AM)JRsec Wrote:  Well we have a lot of things which have been announced, hinted, and placed on the calendar:

Calendar:

2023 B1G negotiates a new contract which means 2022 the details are hammered out.

2024 PAC 12 negotiates a new contract which means 2023 they work on their details.

2025 The New B12 negotiates a new contract which means 2024 they work theirs.

2026 The CFP contract is up.

Hinted:

For 2023 Warren talks about enhancing the basketball profile for the Big 10. With AAU as a prerequisite that places the focus on the ACC. So much for an alliance built on a handshake, and a premise of protecting amateurism which has already been impinged by NIL rulings and halted by a threatened lawsuit by Alston lawyers. With a pay for play case on the calendar for next Summer the majority of alliance objectives are now moot.

Announced:

Couple this with the new interest in agreeing with moving ahead on expansion of the CFP to 12 schools (for the payday as soon as possible) and it looks like the adverse reaction to ESPN having sole control is being swept under the rug as well. But why?
It seems the "alliance" now realizes that by refusing to cooperate they could lose their last chance to wield any influence as the SEC has been quite prepared to breakaway, and by sucking back up to ESPN and giving them what they want they have a chance to stop the breakaway for now by appeasing ESPN and using their influence to keep the SEC on a level where the alliance has some semblance of influence.

So we have a divergent pathway ahead.

If we move to a 12 school CFP we stay as we are with the NCAA likely consenting to allow pay for play in hoops. That takes hoops from 20% of all revenue to ~35 to 40% of total revenue.

If we do this we could have 4 conferences of 16 to 18, or 3 conferences of 20 or 24.

I'll leave you to make your favorite of guesses as to who goes where in each.

I do believe at 18 it is highly likely the ACC loses some schools, and top brands at that which move to close the revenue gap.

At 16 it is conceivable that the B1G could land N.D. and Kansas without touching the ACC proper. It gives the 1 major football and 1 major basketball brand and pays them well. Likely? No. Conceivable? Yes.

If the move is to 18 I see the SEC taking a Virginia school (most likely Tech) and North Carolina but only because those are the 2 that ESPN would likely want to hold onto.

I would expect the B1G to move to 18 with N.D. (big sum of money), Ga Tech (because N.D. wants a Deep South exposure for recruiting), Duke (strong presence in New York City and New England) and Virginia (beltway presence and academics).

ESPN could enhance profits by drawing the interests of the two most watched conferences to 2 states with a combined 20 million people. So this division seems most likely to me to be one ESPN would favor.

The rest of the ACC would be merged with B12 and AAC schools to preserve ESPN's dominance in the Deep South and Southwest.

Why N.D. to the B1G? ESPN actually would own a higher percentage of their total rights and against more profitable competition. So, more revenue.

Now if the Alliance schools don't agree to playoff expansion we head another way entirely.

The SEC would breakaway forming a new upper tier which would invite the cream of the other 3 conferences to join what essentially would form a super league which would be paid accordingly. Think 110 to 125 million each in media revenue and would have their own playoff for a national championship. Also think ~32 schools.

If this transpires expect quite a few all but football invitations to flesh out a new super hoops tourney for basketball only schools and some basketball first schools

So we should have quite a bit of change on the horizon which may or may not be attained through cooperation. We'll see.

I can track with most of this but the ACC merging with Big 12 "and AAC" schools is problematic.

The Big 12 can still take Boise/Memphis/USF/SMU to stay at 14 once Texas/OK leave. That leaves Temple/ECU/Tulane/Tulsa/Navy.

At that point Navy goes independent again.

I don't see any reason that ACC schools would be excited to play what amounts to C-USA 5.0 or 6.0. Marshall/WKU/App St./Coastal type schools.

If 18 is possible I'd say that the SEC does try to get UNC and Tech, settling for Tech and NC State.

Big 10 could still go west and take Oregon who has a decent basketball profile, but ACC does make sense.

(10-13-2021 10:45 PM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  

(10-13-2021 01:11 AM)JRsec Wrote:  Well we have a lot of things which have been announced, hinted, and placed on the calendar:

Calendar:

2023 B1G negotiates a new contract which means 2022 the details are hammered out.

2024 PAC 12 negotiates a new contract which means 2023 they work on their details.

2025 The New B12 negotiates a new contract which means 2024 they work theirs.

2026 The CFP contract is up.

Hinted:

For 2023 Warren talks about enhancing the basketball profile for the Big 10. With AAU as a prerequisite that places the focus on the ACC. So much for an alliance built on a handshake, and a premise of protecting amateurism which has already been impinged by NIL rulings and halted by a threatened lawsuit by Alston lawyers. With a pay for play case on the calendar for next Summer the majority of alliance objectives are now moot.

Announced:

Couple this with the new interest in agreeing with moving ahead on expansion of the CFP to 12 schools (for the payday as soon as possible) and it looks like the adverse reaction to ESPN having sole control is being swept under the rug as well. But why?
It seems the "alliance" now realizes that by refusing to cooperate they could lose their last chance to wield any influence as the SEC has been quite prepared to breakaway, and by sucking back up to ESPN and giving them what they want they have a chance to stop the breakaway for now by appeasing ESPN and using their influence to keep the SEC on a level where the alliance has some semblance of influence.

So we have a divergent pathway ahead.

If we move to a 12 school CFP we stay as we are with the NCAA likely consenting to allow pay for play in hoops. That takes hoops from 20% of all revenue to ~35 to 40% of total revenue.

If we do this we could have 4 conferences of 16 to 18, or 3 conferences of 20 or 24.

I'll leave you to make your favorite of guesses as to who goes where in each.

I do believe at 18 it is highly likely the ACC loses some schools, and top brands at that which move to close the revenue gap.

At 16 it is conceivable that the B1G could land N.D. and Kansas without touching the ACC proper. It gives the 1 major football and 1 major basketball brand and pays them well. Likely? No. Conceivable? Yes.

If the move is to 18 I see the SEC taking a Virginia school (most likely Tech) and North Carolina but only because those are the 2 that ESPN would likely want to hold onto.

I would expect the B1G to move to 18 with N.D. (big sum of money), Ga Tech (because N.D. wants a Deep South exposure for recruiting), Duke (strong presence in New York City and New England) and Virginia (beltway presence and academics).

ESPN could enhance profits by drawing the interests of the two most watched conferences to 2 states with a combined 20 million people. So this division seems most likely to me to be one ESPN would favor.

The rest of the ACC would be merged with B12 and AAC schools to preserve ESPN's dominance in the Deep South and Southwest.

Why N.D. to the B1G? ESPN actually would own a higher percentage of their total rights and against more profitable competition. So, more revenue.

Now if the Alliance schools don't agree to playoff expansion we head another way entirely.

The SEC would breakaway forming a new upper tier which would invite the cream of the other 3 conferences to join what essentially would form a super league which would be paid accordingly. Think 110 to 125 million each in media revenue and would have their own playoff for a national championship. Also think ~32 schools.

If this transpires expect quite a few all but football invitations to flesh out a new super hoops tourney for basketball only schools and some basketball first schools

So we should have quite a bit of change on the horizon which may or may not be attained through cooperation. We'll see.

I can track with most of this but the ACC merging with Big 12 "and AAC" schools is problematic.

The Big 12 can still take Boise/Memphis/USF/SMU to stay at 14 once Texas/OK leave. That leaves Temple/ECU/Tulane/Tulsa/Navy.

At that point Navy goes independent again.

I don't see any reason that ACC schools would be excited to play what amounts to C-USA 5.0 or 6.0. Marshall/WKU/App St./Coastal type schools.

If 18 is possible I'd say that the SEC does try to get UNC and Tech, settling for Tech and NC State.

Big 10 could still go west and take Oregon who has a decent basketball profile, but ACC does make sense.

Problematic why? The best values are in the merger. Not in what you suggest. The fewer promoted G5 the more the remaining ACC and B12 schools make.

The SEC won't have to settle for N.C. State. ESPN want's a 100% of UNC and like at Oklahoma and Texas their donors would rather stay tied to the South. Presidents and academics don't always win like Spanier did when he screwed up FSU.

ESPN wants and sees profit in B10 and SEC eyes in North Carolina and Virginia. Double dipping 20 million in an affluent region is profitable. Duke meets B1G requirements and draws well in enrollment and fan following in NYC and New England. UNC meets SEC needs. You split the baby. Virginia is now Beltway and decidedly more Northern in culture than Southern. Virginia Tech is tidewater, has a corps of cadets and is not. A&M considers them a sister school.

Georgia has the simple majority of greater Atlanta and carries 85% of the state. Tech holds little value for the SEC.

Now as to the merger those schools would still be paid in the mid 30 million range. They have larger followings and deeper pockets than G5 schools. Houston and Cincinnati likely can make the jump. B.Y.U. is already on the payroll at ESPN.

Pay them in that range and there are no damages from any of the moves, and those who do move to the SEC and B1G generate more high dollar games than they did in the ACC and they draw much larger audiences for ad rates.

And the B1G is not heading West, period. Cost to minor sports, decades of close association and their eternal love of the Rose Bowl won't permit it. Plus Warren and Kliavkoff do work together.

So, don't do the thing where some ask you to think like a university president. That guru once had priorities on Pitt and Syracuse for the B1G. They took Maryland and Rutgers because the network paid more for them. He pushed Kansas and Missouri to the B1G. He whiffed on both. I said Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC because I knew they had been in talks about it with us since 1987. The Guru said B1G, oops!

In 2011 when Maryland bolted the ACC, North Carolina wanted to know if the ACC was destabilized could they and Duke come to the SEC. I'm pretty sure we said yes. UNC and Texas could be pals. Florida and A&M along with Vandy give them more in common, and Missouri might.

If their is a last second change I can could see the 2011 inquiry happening instead of Va Tech, we might take the dynamic duo of hoops and improve our market reach and our academics all at once.

Heck there is even a wild rumor out there that Missouri to the B1G with Kansas opens a slot for the three amigos of Tobacco Road (UNC, UVa, and Duke). But that would have to be Missouri's desire. The conference would never ask it of them.

I just know that realignment has been about brand consolidation and market penetration from the network CEO's perspective, and not about university presidents. Exposure helps enrollment and ESPN promises exposure, if you do what they want. Va Tech and UNC gives them 100% rights to the most viewed conference in America while tying in 20 million potential viewers. That will be ESPN's first choice. UNC might be able to swing Duke, and that just to be paired with Texas, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Kentucky, Auburn, Alabama, and Florida in hoops boosting the SEC's winter lineup, especially if the NCAA loses control of basketball due to pay for play.

But remember, ESPN holds 49% of the B1G's T1 and T2 rights, and Duke, Virginia, and Georgia Tech make them much more in the B1G. And they get more of N.D. than they have now if N.D. joins the B1G. That makes it viable.

(10-14-2021 12:27 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-13-2021 10:45 PM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  

(10-13-2021 01:11 AM)JRsec Wrote:  Well we have a lot of things which have been announced, hinted, and placed on the calendar:

Calendar:

2023 B1G negotiates a new contract which means 2022 the details are hammered out.

2024 PAC 12 negotiates a new contract which means 2023 they work on their details.

2025 The New B12 negotiates a new contract which means 2024 they work theirs.

2026 The CFP contract is up.

Hinted:

For 2023 Warren talks about enhancing the basketball profile for the Big 10. With AAU as a prerequisite that places the focus on the ACC. So much for an alliance built on a handshake, and a premise of protecting amateurism which has already been impinged by NIL rulings and halted by a threatened lawsuit by Alston lawyers. With a pay for play case on the calendar for next Summer the majority of alliance objectives are now moot.

Announced:

Couple this with the new interest in agreeing with moving ahead on expansion of the CFP to 12 schools (for the payday as soon as possible) and it looks like the adverse reaction to ESPN having sole control is being swept under the rug as well. But why?
It seems the "alliance" now realizes that by refusing to cooperate they could lose their last chance to wield any influence as the SEC has been quite prepared to breakaway, and by sucking back up to ESPN and giving them what they want they have a chance to stop the breakaway for now by appeasing ESPN and using their influence to keep the SEC on a level where the alliance has some semblance of influence.

So we have a divergent pathway ahead.

If we move to a 12 school CFP we stay as we are with the NCAA likely consenting to allow pay for play in hoops. That takes hoops from 20% of all revenue to ~35 to 40% of total revenue.

If we do this we could have 4 conferences of 16 to 18, or 3 conferences of 20 or 24.

I'll leave you to make your favorite of guesses as to who goes where in each.

I do believe at 18 it is highly likely the ACC loses some schools, and top brands at that which move to close the revenue gap.

At 16 it is conceivable that the B1G could land N.D. and Kansas without touching the ACC proper. It gives the 1 major football and 1 major basketball brand and pays them well. Likely? No. Conceivable? Yes.

If the move is to 18 I see the SEC taking a Virginia school (most likely Tech) and North Carolina but only because those are the 2 that ESPN would likely want to hold onto.

I would expect the B1G to move to 18 with N.D. (big sum of money), Ga Tech (because N.D. wants a Deep South exposure for recruiting), Duke (strong presence in New York City and New England) and Virginia (beltway presence and academics).

ESPN could enhance profits by drawing the interests of the two most watched conferences to 2 states with a combined 20 million people. So this division seems most likely to me to be one ESPN would favor.

The rest of the ACC would be merged with B12 and AAC schools to preserve ESPN's dominance in the Deep South and Southwest.

Why N.D. to the B1G? ESPN actually would own a higher percentage of their total rights and against more profitable competition. So, more revenue.

Now if the Alliance schools don't agree to playoff expansion we head another way entirely.

The SEC would breakaway forming a new upper tier which would invite the cream of the other 3 conferences to join what essentially would form a super league which would be paid accordingly. Think 110 to 125 million each in media revenue and would have their own playoff for a national championship. Also think ~32 schools.

If this transpires expect quite a few all but football invitations to flesh out a new super hoops tourney for basketball only schools and some basketball first schools

So we should have quite a bit of change on the horizon which may or may not be attained through cooperation. We'll see.

I can track with most of this but the ACC merging with Big 12 "and AAC" schools is problematic.

The Big 12 can still take Boise/Memphis/USF/SMU to stay at 14 once Texas/OK leave. That leaves Temple/ECU/Tulane/Tulsa/Navy.

At that point Navy goes independent again.

I don't see any reason that ACC schools would be excited to play what amounts to C-USA 5.0 or 6.0. Marshall/WKU/App St./Coastal type schools.

If 18 is possible I'd say that the SEC does try to get UNC and Tech, settling for Tech and NC State.

Big 10 could still go west and take Oregon who has a decent basketball profile, but ACC does make sense.

Problematic why? The best values are in the merger. Not in what you suggest. The fewer promoted G5 the more the remaining ACC and B12 schools make.

The SEC won't have to settle for N.C. State. ESPN want's a 100% of UNC and like at Oklahoma and Texas their donors would rather stay tied to the South. Presidents and academics don't always win like Spanier did when he screwed up FSU.

ESPN wants and sees profit in B10 and SEC eyes in North Carolina and Virginia. Double dipping 20 million in an affluent region is profitable. Duke meets B1G requirements and draws well in enrollment and fan following in NYC and New England. UNC meets SEC needs. You split the baby. Virginia is now Beltway and decidedly more Northern in culture than Southern. Virginia Tech is tidewater, has a corps of cadets and is not. A&M considers them a sister school.

Georgia has the simple majority of greater Atlanta and carries 85% of the state. Tech holds little value for the SEC.

Now as to the merger those schools would still be paid in the mid 30 million range. They have larger followings and deeper pockets than G5 schools. Houston and Cincinnati likely can make the jump. B.Y.U. is already on the payroll at ESPN.

Pay them in that range and there are no damages from any of the moves, and those who do move to the SEC and B1G generate more high dollar games than they did in the ACC and they draw much larger audiences for ad rates.

And the B1G is not heading West, period. Cost to minor sports, decades of close association and their eternal love of the Rose Bowl won't permit it. Plus Warren and Kliavkoff do work together.

So, don't do the thing where some ask you to think like a university president. That guru once had priorities on Pitt and Syracuse for the B1G. They took Maryland and Rutgers because the network paid more for them. He pushed Kansas and Missouri to the B1G. He whiffed on both. I said Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC because I knew they had been in talks about it with us since 1987. The Guru said B1G, oops!

In 2011 when Maryland bolted the ACC, North Carolina wanted to know if the ACC was destabilized could they and Duke come to the SEC. I'm pretty sure we said yes. UNC and Texas could be pals. Florida and A&M along with Vandy give them more in common, and Missouri might.

If their is a last second change I can could see the 2011 inquiry happening instead of Va Tech, we might take the dynamic duo of hoops and improve our market reach and our academics all at once.

Heck there is even a wild rumor out there that Missouri to the B1G with Kansas opens a slot for the three amigos of Tobacco Road (UNC, UVa, and Duke). But that would have to be Missouri's desire. The conference would never ask it of them.

I just know that realignment has been about brand consolidation and market penetration from the network CEO's perspective, and not about university presidents. Exposure helps enrollment and ESPN promises exposure, if you do what they want. Va Tech and UNC gives them 100% rights to the most viewed conference in America while tying in 20 million potential viewers. That will be ESPN's first choice. UNC might be able to swing Duke, and that just to be paired with Texas, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Kentucky, Auburn, Alabama, and Florida in hoops boosting the SEC's winter lineup, especially if the NCAA loses control of basketball due to pay for play.

But remember, ESPN holds 49% of the B1G's T1 and T2 rights, and Duke, Virginia, and Georgia Tech make them much more in the B1G. And they get more of N.D. than they have now if N.D. joins the B1G. That makes it viable.

I don't believe the B1G would take Duke without NC, the value just isn't there even if basketball revenues increase. Duke & Ga. Tech have horrible football tv ratings.

(10-14-2021 11:34 AM)Win5002 Wrote:  

(10-14-2021 12:27 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-13-2021 10:45 PM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  

(10-13-2021 01:11 AM)JRsec Wrote:  Well we have a lot of things which have been announced, hinted, and placed on the calendar:

Calendar:

2023 B1G negotiates a new contract which means 2022 the details are hammered out.

2024 PAC 12 negotiates a new contract which means 2023 they work on their details.

2025 The New B12 negotiates a new contract which means 2024 they work theirs.

2026 The CFP contract is up.

Hinted:

For 2023 Warren talks about enhancing the basketball profile for the Big 10. With AAU as a prerequisite that places the focus on the ACC. So much for an alliance built on a handshake, and a premise of protecting amateurism which has already been impinged by NIL rulings and halted by a threatened lawsuit by Alston lawyers. With a pay for play case on the calendar for next Summer the majority of alliance objectives are now moot.

Announced:

Couple this with the new interest in agreeing with moving ahead on expansion of the CFP to 12 schools (for the payday as soon as possible) and it looks like the adverse reaction to ESPN having sole control is being swept under the rug as well. But why?
It seems the "alliance" now realizes that by refusing to cooperate they could lose their last chance to wield any influence as the SEC has been quite prepared to breakaway, and by sucking back up to ESPN and giving them what they want they have a chance to stop the breakaway for now by appeasing ESPN and using their influence to keep the SEC on a level where the alliance has some semblance of influence.

So we have a divergent pathway ahead.

If we move to a 12 school CFP we stay as we are with the NCAA likely consenting to allow pay for play in hoops. That takes hoops from 20% of all revenue to ~35 to 40% of total revenue.

If we do this we could have 4 conferences of 16 to 18, or 3 conferences of 20 or 24.

I'll leave you to make your favorite of guesses as to who goes where in each.

I do believe at 18 it is highly likely the ACC loses some schools, and top brands at that which move to close the revenue gap.

At 16 it is conceivable that the B1G could land N.D. and Kansas without touching the ACC proper. It gives the 1 major football and 1 major basketball brand and pays them well. Likely? No. Conceivable? Yes.

If the move is to 18 I see the SEC taking a Virginia school (most likely Tech) and North Carolina but only because those are the 2 that ESPN would likely want to hold onto.

I would expect the B1G to move to 18 with N.D. (big sum of money), Ga Tech (because N.D. wants a Deep South exposure for recruiting), Duke (strong presence in New York City and New England) and Virginia (beltway presence and academics).

ESPN could enhance profits by drawing the interests of the two most watched conferences to 2 states with a combined 20 million people. So this division seems most likely to me to be one ESPN would favor.

The rest of the ACC would be merged with B12 and AAC schools to preserve ESPN's dominance in the Deep South and Southwest.

Why N.D. to the B1G? ESPN actually would own a higher percentage of their total rights and against more profitable competition. So, more revenue.

Now if the Alliance schools don't agree to playoff expansion we head another way entirely.

The SEC would breakaway forming a new upper tier which would invite the cream of the other 3 conferences to join what essentially would form a super league which would be paid accordingly. Think 110 to 125 million each in media revenue and would have their own playoff for a national championship. Also think ~32 schools.

If this transpires expect quite a few all but football invitations to flesh out a new super hoops tourney for basketball only schools and some basketball first schools

So we should have quite a bit of change on the horizon which may or may not be attained through cooperation. We'll see.

I can track with most of this but the ACC merging with Big 12 "and AAC" schools is problematic.

The Big 12 can still take Boise/Memphis/USF/SMU to stay at 14 once Texas/OK leave. That leaves Temple/ECU/Tulane/Tulsa/Navy.

At that point Navy goes independent again.

I don't see any reason that ACC schools would be excited to play what amounts to C-USA 5.0 or 6.0. Marshall/WKU/App St./Coastal type schools.

If 18 is possible I'd say that the SEC does try to get UNC and Tech, settling for Tech and NC State.

Big 10 could still go west and take Oregon who has a decent basketball profile, but ACC does make sense.

Problematic why? The best values are in the merger. Not in what you suggest. The fewer promoted G5 the more the remaining ACC and B12 schools make.

The SEC won't have to settle for N.C. State. ESPN want's a 100% of UNC and like at Oklahoma and Texas their donors would rather stay tied to the South. Presidents and academics don't always win like Spanier did when he screwed up FSU.

ESPN wants and sees profit in B10 and SEC eyes in North Carolina and Virginia. Double dipping 20 million in an affluent region is profitable. Duke meets B1G requirements and draws well in enrollment and fan following in NYC and New England. UNC meets SEC needs. You split the baby. Virginia is now Beltway and decidedly more Northern in culture than Southern. Virginia Tech is tidewater, has a corps of cadets and is not. A&M considers them a sister school.

Georgia has the simple majority of greater Atlanta and carries 85% of the state. Tech holds little value for the SEC.

Now as to the merger those schools would still be paid in the mid 30 million range. They have larger followings and deeper pockets than G5 schools. Houston and Cincinnati likely can make the jump. B.Y.U. is already on the payroll at ESPN.

Pay them in that range and there are no damages from any of the moves, and those who do move to the SEC and B1G generate more high dollar games than they did in the ACC and they draw much larger audiences for ad rates.

And the B1G is not heading West, period. Cost to minor sports, decades of close association and their eternal love of the Rose Bowl won't permit it. Plus Warren and Kliavkoff do work together.

So, don't do the thing where some ask you to think like a university president. That guru once had priorities on Pitt and Syracuse for the B1G. They took Maryland and Rutgers because the network paid more for them. He pushed Kansas and Missouri to the B1G. He whiffed on both. I said Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC because I knew they had been in talks about it with us since 1987. The Guru said B1G, oops!

In 2011 when Maryland bolted the ACC, North Carolina wanted to know if the ACC was destabilized could they and Duke come to the SEC. I'm pretty sure we said yes. UNC and Texas could be pals. Florida and A&M along with Vandy give them more in common, and Missouri might.

If their is a last second change I can could see the 2011 inquiry happening instead of Va Tech, we might take the dynamic duo of hoops and improve our market reach and our academics all at once.

Heck there is even a wild rumor out there that Missouri to the B1G with Kansas opens a slot for the three amigos of Tobacco Road (UNC, UVa, and Duke). But that would have to be Missouri's desire. The conference would never ask it of them.

I just know that realignment has been about brand consolidation and market penetration from the network CEO's perspective, and not about university presidents. Exposure helps enrollment and ESPN promises exposure, if you do what they want. Va Tech and UNC gives them 100% rights to the most viewed conference in America while tying in 20 million potential viewers. That will be ESPN's first choice. UNC might be able to swing Duke, and that just to be paired with Texas, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Kentucky, Auburn, Alabama, and Florida in hoops boosting the SEC's winter lineup, especially if the NCAA loses control of basketball due to pay for play.

But remember, ESPN holds 49% of the B1G's T1 and T2 rights, and Duke, Virginia, and Georgia Tech make them much more in the B1G. And they get more of N.D. than they have now if N.D. joins the B1G. That makes it viable.

I don't believe the B1G would take Duke without NC, the value just isn't there even if basketball revenues increase. Duke & Ga. Tech have horrible football tv ratings.

Duke is the #1 academic prize and they are middle of the pack earners in the ACC. The B1G would take them without flinching. Tech gives them Atlanta and Southern recruiting access. Notre Dame makes enough to cover all of it.

(10-14-2021 01:13 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-14-2021 11:34 AM)Win5002 Wrote:  

(10-14-2021 12:27 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-13-2021 10:45 PM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  

(10-13-2021 01:11 AM)JRsec Wrote:  Well we have a lot of things which have been announced, hinted, and placed on the calendar:

Calendar:

2023 B1G negotiates a new contract which means 2022 the details are hammered out.

2024 PAC 12 negotiates a new contract which means 2023 they work on their details.

2025 The New B12 negotiates a new contract which means 2024 they work theirs.

2026 The CFP contract is up.

Hinted:

For 2023 Warren talks about enhancing the basketball profile for the Big 10. With AAU as a prerequisite that places the focus on the ACC. So much for an alliance built on a handshake, and a premise of protecting amateurism which has already been impinged by NIL rulings and halted by a threatened lawsuit by Alston lawyers. With a pay for play case on the calendar for next Summer the majority of alliance objectives are now moot.

Announced:

Couple this with the new interest in agreeing with moving ahead on expansion of the CFP to 12 schools (for the payday as soon as possible) and it looks like the adverse reaction to ESPN having sole control is being swept under the rug as well. But why?
It seems the "alliance" now realizes that by refusing to cooperate they could lose their last chance to wield any influence as the SEC has been quite prepared to breakaway, and by sucking back up to ESPN and giving them what they want they have a chance to stop the breakaway for now by appeasing ESPN and using their influence to keep the SEC on a level where the alliance has some semblance of influence.

So we have a divergent pathway ahead.

If we move to a 12 school CFP we stay as we are with the NCAA likely consenting to allow pay for play in hoops. That takes hoops from 20% of all revenue to ~35 to 40% of total revenue.

If we do this we could have 4 conferences of 16 to 18, or 3 conferences of 20 or 24.

I'll leave you to make your favorite of guesses as to who goes where in each.

I do believe at 18 it is highly likely the ACC loses some schools, and top brands at that which move to close the revenue gap.

At 16 it is conceivable that the B1G could land N.D. and Kansas without touching the ACC proper. It gives the 1 major football and 1 major basketball brand and pays them well. Likely? No. Conceivable? Yes.

If the move is to 18 I see the SEC taking a Virginia school (most likely Tech) and North Carolina but only because those are the 2 that ESPN would likely want to hold onto.

I would expect the B1G to move to 18 with N.D. (big sum of money), Ga Tech (because N.D. wants a Deep South exposure for recruiting), Duke (strong presence in New York City and New England) and Virginia (beltway presence and academics).

ESPN could enhance profits by drawing the interests of the two most watched conferences to 2 states with a combined 20 million people. So this division seems most likely to me to be one ESPN would favor.

The rest of the ACC would be merged with B12 and AAC schools to preserve ESPN's dominance in the Deep South and Southwest.

Why N.D. to the B1G? ESPN actually would own a higher percentage of their total rights and against more profitable competition. So, more revenue.

Now if the Alliance schools don't agree to playoff expansion we head another way entirely.

The SEC would breakaway forming a new upper tier which would invite the cream of the other 3 conferences to join what essentially would form a super league which would be paid accordingly. Think 110 to 125 million each in media revenue and would have their own playoff for a national championship. Also think ~32 schools.

If this transpires expect quite a few all but football invitations to flesh out a new super hoops tourney for basketball only schools and some basketball first schools

So we should have quite a bit of change on the horizon which may or may not be attained through cooperation. We'll see.

I can track with most of this but the ACC merging with Big 12 "and AAC" schools is problematic.

The Big 12 can still take Boise/Memphis/USF/SMU to stay at 14 once Texas/OK leave. That leaves Temple/ECU/Tulane/Tulsa/Navy.

At that point Navy goes independent again.

I don't see any reason that ACC schools would be excited to play what amounts to C-USA 5.0 or 6.0. Marshall/WKU/App St./Coastal type schools.

If 18 is possible I'd say that the SEC does try to get UNC and Tech, settling for Tech and NC State.

Big 10 could still go west and take Oregon who has a decent basketball profile, but ACC does make sense.

Problematic why? The best values are in the merger. Not in what you suggest. The fewer promoted G5 the more the remaining ACC and B12 schools make.

The SEC won't have to settle for N.C. State. ESPN want's a 100% of UNC and like at Oklahoma and Texas their donors would rather stay tied to the South. Presidents and academics don't always win like Spanier did when he screwed up FSU.

ESPN wants and sees profit in B10 and SEC eyes in North Carolina and Virginia. Double dipping 20 million in an affluent region is profitable. Duke meets B1G requirements and draws well in enrollment and fan following in NYC and New England. UNC meets SEC needs. You split the baby. Virginia is now Beltway and decidedly more Northern in culture than Southern. Virginia Tech is tidewater, has a corps of cadets and is not. A&M considers them a sister school.

Georgia has the simple majority of greater Atlanta and carries 85% of the state. Tech holds little value for the SEC.

Now as to the merger those schools would still be paid in the mid 30 million range. They have larger followings and deeper pockets than G5 schools. Houston and Cincinnati likely can make the jump. B.Y.U. is already on the payroll at ESPN.

Pay them in that range and there are no damages from any of the moves, and those who do move to the SEC and B1G generate more high dollar games than they did in the ACC and they draw much larger audiences for ad rates.

And the B1G is not heading West, period. Cost to minor sports, decades of close association and their eternal love of the Rose Bowl won't permit it. Plus Warren and Kliavkoff do work together.

So, don't do the thing where some ask you to think like a university president. That guru once had priorities on Pitt and Syracuse for the B1G. They took Maryland and Rutgers because the network paid more for them. He pushed Kansas and Missouri to the B1G. He whiffed on both. I said Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC because I knew they had been in talks about it with us since 1987. The Guru said B1G, oops!

In 2011 when Maryland bolted the ACC, North Carolina wanted to know if the ACC was destabilized could they and Duke come to the SEC. I'm pretty sure we said yes. UNC and Texas could be pals. Florida and A&M along with Vandy give them more in common, and Missouri might.

If their is a last second change I can could see the 2011 inquiry happening instead of Va Tech, we might take the dynamic duo of hoops and improve our market reach and our academics all at once.

Heck there is even a wild rumor out there that Missouri to the B1G with Kansas opens a slot for the three amigos of Tobacco Road (UNC, UVa, and Duke). But that would have to be Missouri's desire. The conference would never ask it of them.

I just know that realignment has been about brand consolidation and market penetration from the network CEO's perspective, and not about university presidents. Exposure helps enrollment and ESPN promises exposure, if you do what they want. Va Tech and UNC gives them 100% rights to the most viewed conference in America while tying in 20 million potential viewers. That will be ESPN's first choice. UNC might be able to swing Duke, and that just to be paired with Texas, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Kentucky, Auburn, Alabama, and Florida in hoops boosting the SEC's winter lineup, especially if the NCAA loses control of basketball due to pay for play.

But remember, ESPN holds 49% of the B1G's T1 and T2 rights, and Duke, Virginia, and Georgia Tech make them much more in the B1G. And they get more of N.D. than they have now if N.D. joins the B1G. That makes it viable.

I don't believe the B1G would take Duke without NC, the value just isn't there even if basketball revenues increase. Duke & Ga. Tech have horrible football tv ratings.

Duke is the #1 academic prize and they are middle of the pack earners in the ACC. The B1G would take them without flinching. Tech gives them Atlanta and Southern recruiting access. Notre Dame makes enough to cover all of it.

So would the SEC take Duke without NC? If paired with Va. Tech?

(10-14-2021 01:21 PM)Win5002 Wrote:  

(10-14-2021 01:13 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-14-2021 11:34 AM)Win5002 Wrote:  

(10-14-2021 12:27 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-13-2021 10:45 PM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  I can track with most of this but the ACC merging with Big 12 "and AAC" schools is problematic.

The Big 12 can still take Boise/Memphis/USF/SMU to stay at 14 once Texas/OK leave. That leaves Temple/ECU/Tulane/Tulsa/Navy.

At that point Navy goes independent again.

I don't see any reason that ACC schools would be excited to play what amounts to C-USA 5.0 or 6.0. Marshall/WKU/App St./Coastal type schools.

If 18 is possible I'd say that the SEC does try to get UNC and Tech, settling for Tech and NC State.

Big 10 could still go west and take Oregon who has a decent basketball profile, but ACC does make sense.

Problematic why? The best values are in the merger. Not in what you suggest. The fewer promoted G5 the more the remaining ACC and B12 schools make.

The SEC won't have to settle for N.C. State. ESPN want's a 100% of UNC and like at Oklahoma and Texas their donors would rather stay tied to the South. Presidents and academics don't always win like Spanier did when he screwed up FSU.

ESPN wants and sees profit in B10 and SEC eyes in North Carolina and Virginia. Double dipping 20 million in an affluent region is profitable. Duke meets B1G requirements and draws well in enrollment and fan following in NYC and New England. UNC meets SEC needs. You split the baby. Virginia is now Beltway and decidedly more Northern in culture than Southern. Virginia Tech is tidewater, has a corps of cadets and is not. A&M considers them a sister school.

Georgia has the simple majority of greater Atlanta and carries 85% of the state. Tech holds little value for the SEC.

Now as to the merger those schools would still be paid in the mid 30 million range. They have larger followings and deeper pockets than G5 schools. Houston and Cincinnati likely can make the jump. B.Y.U. is already on the payroll at ESPN.

Pay them in that range and there are no damages from any of the moves, and those who do move to the SEC and B1G generate more high dollar games than they did in the ACC and they draw much larger audiences for ad rates.

And the B1G is not heading West, period. Cost to minor sports, decades of close association and their eternal love of the Rose Bowl won't permit it. Plus Warren and Kliavkoff do work together.

So, don't do the thing where some ask you to think like a university president. That guru once had priorities on Pitt and Syracuse for the B1G. They took Maryland and Rutgers because the network paid more for them. He pushed Kansas and Missouri to the B1G. He whiffed on both. I said Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC because I knew they had been in talks about it with us since 1987. The Guru said B1G, oops!

In 2011 when Maryland bolted the ACC, North Carolina wanted to know if the ACC was destabilized could they and Duke come to the SEC. I'm pretty sure we said yes. UNC and Texas could be pals. Florida and A&M along with Vandy give them more in common, and Missouri might.

If their is a last second change I can could see the 2011 inquiry happening instead of Va Tech, we might take the dynamic duo of hoops and improve our market reach and our academics all at once.

Heck there is even a wild rumor out there that Missouri to the B1G with Kansas opens a slot for the three amigos of Tobacco Road (UNC, UVa, and Duke). But that would have to be Missouri's desire. The conference would never ask it of them.

I just know that realignment has been about brand consolidation and market penetration from the network CEO's perspective, and not about university presidents. Exposure helps enrollment and ESPN promises exposure, if you do what they want. Va Tech and UNC gives them 100% rights to the most viewed conference in America while tying in 20 million potential viewers. That will be ESPN's first choice. UNC might be able to swing Duke, and that just to be paired with Texas, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Kentucky, Auburn, Alabama, and Florida in hoops boosting the SEC's winter lineup, especially if the NCAA loses control of basketball due to pay for play.

But remember, ESPN holds 49% of the B1G's T1 and T2 rights, and Duke, Virginia, and Georgia Tech make them much more in the B1G. And they get more of N.D. than they have now if N.D. joins the B1G. That makes it viable.

I don't believe the B1G would take Duke without NC, the value just isn't there even if basketball revenues increase. Duke & Ga. Tech have horrible football tv ratings.

Duke is the #1 academic prize and they are middle of the pack earners in the ACC. The B1G would take them without flinching. Tech gives them Atlanta and Southern recruiting access. Notre Dame makes enough to cover all of it.

So would the SEC take Duke without NC? If paired with Va. Tech?

If you had actually read my OP and second post post prior to your reply you would know. Duke is less about North Carolina and more about the Northeast. And it's about what ESPN want's not the B1G or SEC.

I give you a more accurate depiction of how things work and you are right back discussing on field performance and presidents. Duke draws not only in N.C., but in NYC and New England. UNC draws well in N.C. and Eastern Tennessee and Kentucky, and Southern Virginia. They are a hoops national brand but little separates their total revenue from that of Duke. They are out earned by Duke 109 million to 107. Duke suits the B1G's needs market wise and would be the top academic institution in the B1G if they joined.

I see Duke and UNC sticking together because it helps each other's brand on a national scale.

I think the SEC would take them. The question to me is would they stop there? If the league is willing to go beyond 16 then I think 20 becomes realistic in order to access some new regions...one of them being the state of NC.

Another would be the state of VA...Virginia Tech makes a lot of sense.

Is there anyone else that works? Honestly, I don't see Notre Dame joining the Big Ten. The SEC would be their clear access to the South especially if a VA school and an NC school are joining up. Between Duke and Notre Dame, the SEC becomes about as relevant in the Northeast as any other major conference.

For the Big Ten, they have limited options.

(10-16-2021 04:17 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  I see Duke and UNC sticking together because it helps each other's brand on a national scale.

I think the SEC would take them. The question to me is would they stop there? If the league is willing to go beyond 16 then I think 20 becomes realistic in order to access some new regions...one of them being the state of NC.

Another would be the state of VA...Virginia Tech makes a lot of sense.

Is there anyone else that works? Honestly, I don't see Notre Dame joining the Big Ten. The SEC would be their clear access to the South especially if a VA school and an NC school are joining up. Between Duke and Notre Dame, the SEC becomes about as relevant in the Northeast as any other major conference.

For the Big Ten, they have limited options.

North Carolina, Duke, Virginia/Virginia Tech and Notre Dame would be another master play.

North Carolina, Duke, Virginia/Virginia Tech and Florida State would be a strong #2.

But you would have to admit we are most impressive at 16!