The focus is on Memphis, but the explanation is universal.
https://www.commercialappeal.com/story/s...135779001/

In sum:
1. Pomeroy sometimes disagrees with the numbers generated by his formula.

2. He uses a group of variables from the past four season to form a baseline.

3. He adds impact of newcomers (eg, recruits and transfer)

4. Predictions include game to game results and regular season results. The figures are not always the same because the favored team does not always win. For example, Memphis is favored in 28 of 30 games, but predicted to end 24-6.

(10-27-2021 05:17 AM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  The focus is on Memphis, but the explanation is universal.
https://www.commercialappeal.com/story/s...135779001/

In sum:
1. Pomeroy sometimes disagrees with the numbers generated by his formula.

2. He uses a group of variables from the past four season to form a baseline.

3. He adds impact of newcomers (eg, recruits and transfer)

4. Predictions include game to game results and regular season results. The figures are not always the same because the favored team does boot always win. For example, Memphis is favored in 28 of 30 games, but predicted to end 24-6.

This is specifically done by adding up all the percentages of games played, for example if a team was favored to win each game of a 32 game schedule with a 55% chance of winning each one their projected record would be 18-14 (rounded from 17.6-14.4), not 32-0.

(10-27-2021 06:15 AM)GTGBlog Wrote:  

(10-27-2021 05:17 AM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  The focus is on Memphis, but the explanation is universal.
https://www.commercialappeal.com/story/s...135779001/

In sum:
1. Pomeroy sometimes disagrees with the numbers generated by his formula.

2. He uses a group of variables from the past four season to form a baseline.

3. He adds impact of newcomers (eg, recruits and transfer)

4. Predictions include game to game results and regular season results. The figures are not always the same because the favored team does boot always win. For example, Memphis is favored in 28 of 30 games, but predicted to end 24-6.

This is specifically done by adding up all the percentages of games played, for example if a team was favored to win each game of a 32 game schedule with a 55% chance of winning each one their projected record would be 18-14 (rounded from 17.6-14.4), not 32-0.

With turnover churning at unprecedented rates, use of past data for future predictions is dubious for good or ill.

KP 2021-2022 AAC preseason rankings and (overall):

1. Houston (11)
2. Memphis (16)
3. SMU (60)
4. UCF (61)
5. WSU (62)
6. Temple (106)
7. Cincy (117)
8. Tulane (123)
9. Tulsa (133)
10. ECU (160)
11. USF (166)
Ave 92.3

The average falls to 129.1 after AAC realignment.

UAB (71)
NT (135)
Rice (144)
FAU (194)
Charlotte (201)
UTSA (237)