.
It's early yet, but the rankings suggest that the will be a 2-bid conference.

..................kenpom....Torvik.....NET....Massey Composite

Houston...........6.............6.........5...........6
Memphis.........17............4........35.........11
.....................................................................................
Wichita St.......69...........66........70.........57.....NIT team?*
UCF................56...........42......103.........59.....NIT team?
Cincy..............72...........51......121.........62.....NIT team?
SMU...............75...........96........59.........85.....NIT team?
.....................................................................................
Temple..........126.........163......160........148
Tulane...........131.........151......158........125
Tulsa.............146.........138......127........183
ECU...............156........123......175........135
USF...............195.........243......200........185

*15 of 40 bracketologies predict Wichita St. will earn a NCAA bid http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

(11-23-2021 02:32 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  .
It's early yet, but the rankings suggest that the will be a 2-bid conference.

..................kenpom....Torvik.....NET....Massey Composite

Houston...........6.............6.........5...........6
Memphis.........17............4........35.........11
.....................................................................................
Wichita St.......69...........66........70.........57.....NIT team?*
UCF................56...........42......103.........59.....NIT team?
Cincy..............72...........51......121.........62.....NIT team?
SMU...............75...........96........59.........85.....NIT team?
.....................................................................................
Temple..........126.........163......160........148
Tulane...........131.........151......158........125
Tulsa.............146.........138......127........183
ECU...............156........123......175........135
USF...............195.........243......200........185

*15 of 40 bracketologies predict Wichita St. will earn a NCAA bid http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

I agree it looks like a 2 bid league for now. And I think UH should be at the top.

I'm not sold on Memphis yet. Way too many turnovers, and Penny has a tendency to play fruit salad turnover with his substitution pattern, which disrupts the flow of the game, and prevents the starters and top rotation guys from getting enough playing time together before the schedule gets tough this week.

During one recent game, Penny used 32 different lineups on the floor in 40 minutes.

We also allow too many offensive rebounds, and still suck at shooting FTs.

OTOH, we have the talent potential where the sky is the limit. But I'll believe it when I see it. Games this week with VA Tech and possibly Xavier should give us a better idea of how good we really are.

Not for sure why anyone wouldn't put Cincy as a tourney team at this point. 5-0 with at least one quality win already.

Also, computer numbers this early are meaningless, they are heavily influenced by preseason/last year information until about mid jan.

(11-23-2021 07:39 AM)TripleA Wrote:  

(11-23-2021 02:32 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  .
It's early yet, but the rankings suggest that the will be a 2-bid conference.

..................kenpom....Torvik.....NET....Massey Composite

Houston...........6.............6.........5...........6
Memphis.........17............4........35.........11
.....................................................................................
Wichita St.......69...........66........70.........57.....NIT team?*
UCF................56...........42......103.........59.....NIT team?
Cincy..............72...........51......121.........62.....NIT team?
SMU...............75...........96........59.........85.....NIT team?
.....................................................................................
Temple..........126.........163......160........148
Tulane...........131.........151......158........125
Tulsa.............146.........138......127........183
ECU...............156........123......175........135
USF...............195.........243......200........185

*15 of 40 bracketologies predict Wichita St. will earn a NCAA bid http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

I agree it looks like a 2 bid league for now. And I think UH should be at the top.

I'm not sold on Memphis yet. Way too many turnovers, and Penny has a tendency to play fruit salad turnover with his substitution pattern, which disrupts the flow of the game, and prevents the starters and top rotation guys from getting enough playing time together before the schedule gets tough this week.

During one recent game, Penny used 32 different lineups on the floor in 40 minutes.

We also allow too many offensive rebounds, and still suck at shooting FTs.

OTOH, we have the talent potential where the sky is the limit. But I'll believe it when I see it. Games this week with VA Tech and possibly Xavier should give us a better idea of how good we really are.

The majority of kenpom is still preseason projections where he had UC in the 120s. Assuming UC keeps playing like this, those numbers are artificially low.

Memphis plays Virginia Tech tomorrow on a neutral court. That should help gage where these teams are.

I think it's Houston and Memphis as the clear top, UCF/Cincy/Wichita as the second tier that I think all could be tournament teams but that's up in the air, and then the rest. Of that rest group I think SMU clearly has the most talent but I don't think anyone does or should trust them. I think ECU is a lot better but came up just short in the only 2 sorta quality OOC games we play so even if we truly are the resume isn't going to reflect it. I think everyone in that group could be good enough to beat everyone in the second tier and maybe even on a hot night Houston/Memphis, but all are going to probably have RPI/NET's that if they do it's going to be bad for the league.

I was told the AAC would be a 7 bid league when the bottom teams made it in the top 150

(11-23-2021 12:49 PM)DowdyPirate Wrote:  I was told the AAC would be a 7 bid league when the bottom teams made it in the top 150

still waiting on usf :(

(11-23-2021 12:49 PM)DowdyPirate Wrote:  I was told the AAC would be a 7 bid league when the bottom teams made it in the top 150

Seven? Maybe, but 4-7 definitely.

We look like two bids guarenteed in Memphis and Houston.

Probable bids in Cincy and UCF

Possible bids in WSU and maybe SMU

Tulsa and Temple look down, Temple is still transitioning to McKie

Tulane and ECU look improved, USF is kinda of a negative after they had seemed to make some progress. All three look like they could be easily top 150 teams. If Temple and Tulsa put together NIT like seasons and the bottom three are top 150 (very possible) that's a five bid league maybe even six if someone gets hot in the conference tourney. I would say two seem locks, three seems probable, four is likely, and five possible right now. Of course that is based on everyone continuing their current form.

(11-23-2021 02:32 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  .
It's early yet, but the rankings suggest that the will be a 2-bid conference.

..................kenpom....Torvik.....NET....Massey Composite

Houston...........6.............6.........5...........6
Memphis.........17............4........35.........11
.....................................................................................
Wichita St.......69...........66........70.........57.....NIT team?*
UCF................56...........42......103.........59.....NIT team?
Cincy..............72...........51......121.........62.....NIT team?
SMU...............75...........96........59.........85.....NIT team?
.....................................................................................
Temple..........126.........163......160........148
Tulane...........131.........151......158........125
Tulsa.............146.........138......127........183
ECU...............156........123......175........135
USF...............195.........243......200........185

*15 of 40 bracketologies predict Wichita St. will earn a NCAA bid http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Houston (Kelvin Sampson) is getting a lot of respect in these. And Penny is getting none. We will see how the season plays out.

It would be foolish not to give Sampson respect. He's proven what he can do time and time again.

I like Penny. He's recruited like crazy and I think what he did last year with the Memphis defense is underappreciated, but Penny is still wait and see when it comes to elevating a roster and getting the players to really gel together.

(11-23-2021 12:49 PM)DowdyPirate Wrote:  I was told the AAC would be a 7 bid league when the bottom teams made it in the top 150

Unfortunately, the P5 schools are the ones who determine which teams get bids from the "neutral" selection committee. As a result, not even the Big East has only managed to earn 7 bids once since 2014 (they got 4 bids in 2019 and 21).

Perhaps the person who mentioned 7 possible bids was referring to the total number of conference teams in post-season tournaments, including NCAA, NIT, CBI, and CIT.

We did have that once - in 2019 (4 NCAA, 2 NIT, and 1 CBI bid).

The most bids the conference ever earned was 4 (2014, 2016, 2019):

2021: 2 bids (UH, WSU)
2020: no tourney (UH and either WSU or UC had a shot)
2019: 4 bids (UC, UH, UCF, Temple)
2018: 3 bids (UC, UH, WSU)
2017: 2 bids (UC, SMU) (WSU earned a bid)*
2016: 4 bids (UC, Temple, Tulsa, UConn^) (WSU earned a bid)*
2014-15: 2 bids (UC, SMU) (WSU also earned a bid)*
2013-14: 4 bids (UC, Memphis, UConn,^ Louisville^) (WSU & Tulsa also earned bids)*

^Former AAC programs
*Not AAC programs at the time.

#1 (tie) UC: 6 bids
#1 (tie) WSU: 6 bids (2 as an AAC member)
#3 UH: 3 bids
#4 (tie) SMU: 2 bids
#4 (tie) Temple: 2 bids
#4 (tie) Tulsa: 2 bids (1 as an AAC member)
#7 Memphis: 1 bid

former programs:

UConn: 2 bids
Louisville: 1 bid


........................


NIT bids:

2021: SMU & Memphis (NIT champion) - Total NCAA & NIT bids: 4
2019: Memphis & WSU (semifinalist) - Total NCAA & NIT bids: 6
2018: Temple - Total NCAA & NIT bids: 4
2017: UH, UCF (quarterfinalist) - Total NCAA & NIT bids: 4
2016: UH - Total NCAA & NIT bids: 5
2015: Tulsa, UConn, & Temple (semifinalist) - Total NCAA & NIT bids: 4
2014: SMU (semifinalist) - Total NCAA & NIT bids: 5

........................


CBI bids:

2021: --- Champion: Pepperdine (WCC)
2019: USF (accepted bid) --- Champion USF (American)
2018: Tulsa (declined bid) --- Champion: North Texas (C-USA)
2017: --- Champion: Wyoming (MWC)
2016: --- Champion: Nevada-Reno (MWC)
2015: Memphis (declined bid) --- Champion: Loyola-Chicago (MVC)
2014: --- Champion: Siena

.

(11-23-2021 02:38 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  It would be foolish not to give Sampson respect. He's proven what he can do time and time again.

I like Penny. He's recruited like crazy and I think what he did last year with the Memphis defense is underappreciated, but Penny is still wait and see when it comes to elevating a roster and getting the players to really gel together.

I love Penny's recruiting but his teams have had a turnover problem of biblical proportions. We're last in the country (or first depending on how you look at it) in turnover rate per possession. Right now our starting point guard turns the ball over an amazing 40% of his possessions. The team as a whole turns it over more than 27%. We're not going to beat good teams doing that.

(11-23-2021 02:21 PM)Tigers2B1 Wrote:  

(11-23-2021 02:32 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  .
It's early yet, but the rankings suggest that the will be a 2-bid conference.

..................kenpom....Torvik.....NET....Massey Composite

Houston...........6.............6.........5...........6
Memphis.........17............4........35.........11
.....................................................................................
Wichita St.......69...........66........70.........57.....NIT team?*
UCF................56...........42......103.........59.....NIT team?
Cincy..............72...........51......121.........62.....NIT team?
SMU...............75...........96........59.........85.....NIT team?
.....................................................................................
Temple..........126.........163......160........148
Tulane...........131.........151......158........125
Tulsa.............146.........138......127........183
ECU...............156........123......175........135
USF...............195.........243......200........185

*15 of 40 bracketologies predict Wichita St. will earn a NCAA bid http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Houston (Kelvin Sampson) is getting a lot of respect in these. And Penny is getting none. We will see how the season plays out.

Which is still completely fair at this point. Kelvin has taken rosters with less talent and experience than this one and won NCAA tournament games. Penny has always had talent. This clearly looks to be the year he finally meshes that talent and gets to the tournament, but until he actually does and wins some games, he doesn't deserve a fraction of the respect Kelvin gets from a coaching standpoint.

(11-23-2021 02:46 PM)tccoog10 Wrote:  

(11-23-2021 02:21 PM)Tigers2B1 Wrote:  

(11-23-2021 02:32 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  .
It's early yet, but the rankings suggest that the will be a 2-bid conference.

..................kenpom....Torvik.....NET....Massey Composite

Houston...........6.............6.........5...........6
Memphis.........17............4........35.........11
.....................................................................................
Wichita St.......69...........66........70.........57.....NIT team?*
UCF................56...........42......103.........59.....NIT team?
Cincy..............72...........51......121.........62.....NIT team?
SMU...............75...........96........59.........85.....NIT team?
.....................................................................................
Temple..........126.........163......160........148
Tulane...........131.........151......158........125
Tulsa.............146.........138......127........183
ECU...............156........123......175........135
USF...............195.........243......200........185

*15 of 40 bracketologies predict Wichita St. will earn a NCAA bid http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Houston (Kelvin Sampson) is getting a lot of respect in these. And Penny is getting none. We will see how the season plays out.

Which is still completely fair at this point. Kelvin has taken rosters with less talent and experience than this one and won NCAA tournament games. Penny has always had talent. This clearly looks to be the year he finally meshes that talent and gets to the tournament, but until he actually does and wins some games, he doesn't deserve a fraction of the respect Kelvin gets from a coaching standpoint.

Sure it's totally fair. see my post right before yours about Memphis turnovers ..... once again this season.

Sampson is 5-1 against Penny.

The last three years, Sampson has lost 10 conference games. Made both conference tournament finals.

Penny has lost 19 conference games. Never made the conference tournament final.

Yet Memphis is rated ahead of Houston in both major polls. Comfortably Top 20 across most polls.

I think Penny is getting a ton of respect.

Perhaps the media is right. This could be Penny's year. I certainly respect both his recruiting, and his ability to get those recruits to play defense. Every Cougar fan thought he'd be another Clyde Drexler flop. But he's 1000x better at coaching college basketball than Clyde...

If anyone is interested in talking about expansion of the playoffs - - with respect to the NCAA might want to check out this thread on the CSNBBS realignment board, which took off almost immediately./

https://csnbbs.com/thread-936317.html

A basketball conference such as the AAC, and the others like it, could really benefit a lot if a few more spots could be opened up.

(11-23-2021 03:03 PM)CougarRed Wrote:  Sampson is 5-1 against Penny.

The last three years, Sampson has lost 10 conference games. Made both conference tournament finals.

Penny has lost 19 conference games. Never made the conference tournament final.

Yet Memphis is rated ahead of Houston in both major polls. Comfortably Top 20 across most polls.

I think Penny is getting a ton of respect.

Perhaps the media is right. This could be Penny's year. I certainly respect both his recruiting, and his ability to get those recruits to play defense. Every Cougar fan thought he'd be another Clyde Drexler flop. But he's 1000x better at coaching college basketball than Clyde...

I would say Memphis is getting respect...No sure that correlates to Penny getting respect.

Penny gets respect. But Houston is #1 today and Memphis is #2. Sampson owns the advantage 5-1 against Penny.

I'd place a shaky UC 3rd.

Current KenPom after Saturday's UCF/Cincy games are factored in...

5 Houston
28 Memphis
55 UCF
58 Wichita St
80 Cincy
83 SMU

Temple leads the also rans at 134