JMU schedule
JMU 68, Morehead St 10
JMU 55, Maine 7
JMU 37 @ #9 Weber St 24
JMU 23, @ #25 UNH 21
#11 VU 28, JMU 27
JMU 19 @ UR 3
JMU 22 @ #23 UD 10
@ JMU 45, Elon 21
@ JMU 51, Campbell 14
JMU 32, @ #25 W&M 22.
@ JMU 56, TU 10
https://jmusports.com/sports/football/schedule/2021

SELA schedule (Only 4 home games, 1st 5 and 6 of 7 on the road, 3 of last 4 @ home):
SELA 49, @ N BAMA 28
@ LA Tech 45, SELA 42
SELA 56, @ CCSU 10
SELA 38, @ McNeese St 35
SELA 58, @ #25 Nichols St 48
@ SELA 61, Houston Baptist 24
SELA 51, @ NW St 14
@ SELA 23, McNeese 20
@ #22 UIW 55, SELA 52
@ SELA 56, NW St 28
Nichols St 45, @ SELA 42
————————————
1st round @ SELA 38, #22 FAMU 14
https://lionsports.net/sports/football/schedule/2021


Mod note: edited thread title to "SLU"

Regular Season Stats (Not updated with 1st round playoffs)

Scoring Offense: SELA #1 (48.0 ppg); JMU #5 (39.5 ppg).
Total Offense: SELA #1 (567 ypg); JMU #18 (438.2 ypg).
Rushing Offense )JMU #41 (161.6 ypg); SELA #50 (153.3 ypg).
Passing Offense: SELA #2 (413.7 ypg); JMU #17 (276.5 ypg).

Scoring Defense: JMU #10 (15.45 ppg), SELA #98 (32.0 ppg).
Total Defense: JMU #1 (252.6 ypg); SELA #104 (436.4 ppg).
Rushing Defense: JMU #6 (79.7 ypg); SELA #64 (155.9 ypg).
Passing Defense: JMU #10 (172.9 ypg); SELA #122 (280.5 ypg).
https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fcs/current/team/29

Passing Efficiency
-#1 Cole Kelly SELA: 333 of 457 (74.2%), 4382 yds (398 ypg); 38 TDs/8 INTs; 179.54 Efficiency.
https://lionsports.net/sports/football/r...elley/8690

-#3 Cole Johnson JMU: 232 of 341 (68%), 2,942 yds (267.5 ypg); 32 TDs/2 INTs; 170.30 Efficiency.

Looks like Kelly throws to a boatload of WR. Their leading WR is #4, only 5’9”/170.
60 receptions for 966 yds, 8 TDs.
https://lionsports.net/sports/football/stats/2021

Roster:
https://lionsports.net/sports/football/roster

Not a big running game, and their defense blows.

FAMU made their defense look all-world ? Not much I could take away from that game other than their Cole seems to get a bit erratic when pressured and may be forced into some bad throws. Our Dline needs to shine big and JMU will win easy, but their o-line was formidable.

Also, #4 may be 5’9” but he has 4.3 speed, so don’t be surprised when our defense gets torched for a few big plays next week. Just keep the foot on the pedal and the Dukes will come out victorious. Sam Houston lite maybe? But with a true NFL caliber QB.

JMU - 45 SELA - 28

Kelley will get his TD passes but the Dukes will get more. Really hope the JMU OC installs a few wrinkles in the running game to try and get it going.

They’re used to playing weak directional schools with no defense in front of <6000 fans. Hoping the Dukes diehards show up and make their presence felt. I see us jumping out to an early lead, but since they’re solely a passing team they’ll have some long strikes but also a couple picks.

PS: odd scheduling , only 4 home games and they played some conference teams twice, and of course the weaker ones, not Incarnate Word (10-2) whom they lost to. Outside of them their opponents had a cumulative record of 36-75.

(11-28-2021 05:46 AM)JMU2K_DukeDawg Wrote:  FAMU made their defense look all-world ? Not much I could take away from that game other than their Cole seems to get a bit erratic when pressured and may be forced into some bad throws. Our Dline needs to shine big and JMU will win easy, but their o-line was formidable.

Also, #4 may be 5’9” but he has 4.3 speed, so don’t be surprised when our defense gets torched for a few big plays next week. Just keep the foot on the pedal and the Dukes will come out victorious. Sam Houston lite maybe? But with a true NFL caliber QB.

Is he though? Lists of the top QB prospects I can’t find him:
Top doz prospects
https://www.nfldraftbuzz.com/positions/QB/1/2022
Top 15 prospects:
https://draftwire.usatoday.com/lists/202...am-howell/
Top 23 prospects:
https://www.walterfootball.com/draft2022QB.php
Top 25 prospects
https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/202...ovember-22

Draftscout doesn’t even list him as a likely UDFA, and with a 5.17 40…

SELA's 3 losses were all close 3 point games, including to CUSA LaTech.

That would be impressive if LaTech was better than 3-9, though they also had quite a few close losses (lost by 1 to Miss St, 2 to SMU, 3 to ODU, 4 to Rice).

What strikes me is that SELA scores a lot, but also appears to have a weak defense. If we can get pressure on Cole Kelley and hold them to less than 21 it should be an easy win.

I don’t believe we will see a defense better than Villanova’s in the playoffs. It will be interesting to see how they fare because it appears they received a very favorable draw. I see them making it to the semifinals fairly easily. They also have a better than 50/50 chance of beating SHSU. The key for Villanova will be staying healthy as they struggle with depth issues once injuries kick in.

(11-28-2021 09:19 AM)BDKJMU Wrote:  

(11-28-2021 05:46 AM)JMU2K_DukeDawg Wrote:  FAMU made their defense look all-world ? Not much I could take away from that game other than their Cole seems to get a bit erratic when pressured and may be forced into some bad throws. Our Dline needs to shine big and JMU will win easy, but their o-line was formidable.

Also, #4 may be 5’9” but he has 4.3 speed, so don’t be surprised when our defense gets torched for a few big plays next week. Just keep the foot on the pedal and the Dukes will come out victorious. Sam Houston lite maybe? But with a true NFL caliber QB.

Is he though? Lists of the top QB prospects I can’t find him:
Top doz prospects
https://www.nfldraftbuzz.com/positions/QB/1/2022
Top 15 prospects:
https://draftwire.usatoday.com/lists/202...am-howell/
Top 23 prospects:
https://www.walterfootball.com/draft2022QB.php
Top 25 prospects
https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/202...ovember-22

Draftscout doesn’t even list him as a likely UDFA, and with a 5.17 40…

Yeah, the Kelley hype is a bit much for me. My grandmother would have his passing numbers if she played against such weak competition. Their best play is going to be quick hits to RBs out of the backfield. It may be the only passing play Kelley is going to have enough time to complete.

Q: How tall is a 6'7" quarterback when he is flat on his back?

A: About the same height as everyone else.

Kelley is going to run for about 400 yards against us, but it is all going to be backwards and sideways.

SLU is not going to be able to run on us. Thus, they will be one-dimensional early. The Cole Kelley Show is going to be canceled next Saturday.

I feel like this game has some similarities to the ‘19 Monmouth second round game. Has a potent offense who can score a few on us but a defense that just won’t keep them in the game.

Except SELA beat Villanova last year in a shootout.

I hope all these folks are right. Sure seems optimistic considering our offense’s allergy to the endzone in our games vs RU, W&M and Campbell.

(11-28-2021 11:08 AM)HyperDuke Wrote:  I hope all these folks are right. Sure seems optimistic considering our offense’s allergy to the endzone in our games vs RU, W&M and Campbell.

We hung 51 on Campbell, 45 on Elon and 56 on Towson. I expect a similar caliber of defense, and that is what SELA has shown this year outside of FAMU.

IF SELA could find a way to win, it would be something like a 48-45 victory for them. Our defense is better than this I believe.

(11-28-2021 09:51 AM)JMUNation Wrote:  I don’t believe we will see a defense better than Villanova’s in the playoffs. It will be interesting to see how they fare because it appears they received a very favorable draw. I see them making it to the semifinals fairly easily. They also have a better than 50/50 chance of beating SHSU. The key for Villanova will be staying healthy as they struggle with depth issues once injuries kick in.

If SDSU can ‘upset’ Sac St, which I predict they will, SDSU @ VU will be a great matchup. Since VU basically gets a bye next week, and SDSU would be on their 2nd straight week on the road, I agree VU makes the semis, as I predicted on the prediction thread. I wouldn’t necessarily say they make it easily though. They’re going to have a tough quarterfinal matchup SDSU @ home or @ Sac St.

At least in the dome NDSUs defense is at least as good as VU, probably better. Dam it we can’t get them @ Bridgeforth.

I just watched a good chunk of that game (it's on YouTube) and oh man that looked like a high school game. I think we should be able play either cover-2 or 2-deep zones, because he has to really lay up anything long, giving help plenty of time. Play a lot of nickel and send a 5th rusher from a variety of places, and you should able to rattle him; work hard on containing screens/sweeps, and you should be able to bottle them up nicely.

On offense, work the ball to the edges, then a few fake runs will open up plenty of guys deep. This should be over by halftime.

I don’t think I’ve ever seen a QB as big as Kelley. Lorenzen was wider, but at 6’7” 260 lbs Kelley is a large human with passing skill.
He also is the leading rusher on the team and has 16 rushing TD’s
Whenever they are in short yardage or goal line situations, he is option 1, 2, and 3.

What I saw was a very slow runner though and am surprised his knees haven’t been wrecked being such a big target with that many rushing attempts. JMU will get hits on him with the speedy LB’s and safeties. The bigger they are, the harder they fall.

JMU needs to cut off the head of the snake and see if anyone else on that team can beat them. Spy the QB, stop the run game as we always do, get pressure with the best D-line the lions have seen, play press with inside leverage, and get a few turnovers and several sacks to change the game.

He probably still throws for 400 yards because that is what they do, but in a losing effort playing from behind all day.
JMU punts very seldom and lights up the scoreboard against a soft defense. Suddenly, the Dukes running game will look great, but in reality it is the same just playing against a bad FCS defense. SLA gives up 31 points per game against a very weak schedule.

JMU 55
SLA 28

This should set up a great home game for JMU against the de facto Big Sky champ vs the winner of a rematch Montana vs E. Washington. E. Washington beat them 34-28 earlier this year. Either team will be a problem for JMU and not sure which one I’d rather see.
Playoff football is here

We better learn how to ankle tackle...quickly

Not as optimistic as some thinking we win by 3+ TDs next Saturday.

I've been disappointed in the pass rush by our defense so far during the regular season. We need to establish the rush which will have Kelley moving in the pocket like we did when we played Elon and Campbell. Can't give Kelley time like we did Daniel Smith when we played Villanova or we'll be in a shootout which we don't want.

Obviously making good tackles is going to be a priority.

Assume we place our All CAA CB Greg Ross on SELA's best WR and their leading pass catcher #4 Austin Mitchell who's 5'9. Their 2nd leading pass catcher is their TE #88 Nolan Givan who's 6'3.

I thought someone said Carpenter is out for the rest of the season which is unfortunate since he had a good Spring and a pretty good Fall season.

Defense wins championships. SELA doesn’t have one.