If the Bama that played Georgia yesterday shows up the answer is no. If the Bama that played their first 12 games shows up, then yes, Cincy has a winnable game.
Alabama played 5 ranked teams this season. They did lose by 3 at Texas A&M. The Tide also had tough games at Florida (won by 3), at Auburn (4 OT win by 2), vs LSU (won by 6), and vs Arkansas (won by 7). But they whipped Ole Miss, Tennessee, Miss State, and Georgia by double digit margins. And that is playing a full SEC schedule + the opener against Miami FL (7-5).
Cincinnati played 2 ranked teams this season. They ran the AAC schedule and also won all OOC games including by double digits at Indiana (2-10) and at Notre Dame (# 5 in final CFP ranking).
The SEC is the strongest P5 conference. We shall see. Both teams have 25 days to rest up, heal up, and prepare.
It's possible, although many would say unlikely. There are a few things working in our favor though.
Positives:
1 - Alabama is not a great rushing team, and Cincinnati is better at defending against the pass than the run. Alabama ranks 80th in FBS in rushing yards per game at 147.6 YPG and 77th in yards per rush at 4.06. Cincinnati only ranks 47th in rushing yards allowed per game, but ranks 2nd in passing yards allowed per game and has only given up 10 passing touchdowns in 13 games.
2 - Cincinnati has elite cornerbacks to cover Jameson Williams. Jameson Williams is one of the best wide receivers in college football and likely to be a first round pick. But UC will be arguably the best defensive backfield he's had to go against, featuring Sauce Gardner, a potential top-10 draft pick at CB, and Coby Bryant, a Jim Thorpe Award finalist opposite him. Bryan Cook is also a first-team all-AAC safety.
3 - John Metchie III, Alabama's 2nd-leading pass catcher, is out with an ACL injury. That sucks, and I would never wish injury upon an opposing player. However, his loss will make it even more difficult for Jameson Williams to get separation.
So, basically, the thing that Alabama does best offensively (passing) matches up with Cincinnati's greatest strength, which is passing defense. When you look at the matchup, and consider that this year's Alabama has been very beatable at times, I would say Cincinnati has just about as good of a chance to beat Alabama as anyone else would. Let's put it this way; I'm not a betting man, but I would bet on Cincinnati as 13.5-point underdogs, and would probably bet all the way down to about Alabama -10.
It will be interesting. I’m a UC fan 1st and foremost but also a Bama fan the past 8 years due to my kids attending school there. I’ve watched 12 of Alabama’s 13 games (I skipped the FCS game). UC definitely has the personnel and schemes to hang with Alabama but due to it being 3+ weeks away, no way I’d touch the line.
In addition to the coaches, Saban has a dozen coaching analysts and a herd of grad assistants and staffers that will spend 80 hours a week the next two weeks grinding through every single play call and formation and personnel package and tendency that UC has used at any point of the season, keyed to down and distance, score, clock, game situation, etc.
Alabama’s preparation is like a STEM project. The resources they have is nearly unrivaled. There is a reason they are 6-0 in semi final games and 4 of those games were utter and complete blowouts.
UC’s staff is going to need to think outside the box and change up some looks a bit to succeed.
(This post was last modified: 12-05-2021 10:35 PM by rath v2.0.)
(12-05-2021 10:31 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote: It will be interesting. I’m a UC fan 1st and foremost but also a Bama fan the past 8 years due to my kids attending school there. I’ve watched 12 of Alabama’s 13 games (I skipped the FCS game). UC definitely has the personnel and schemes to hang with Alabama but due to it being 3+ weeks away, no way I’d touch the line.
In addition to the coaches, Saban has a dozen coaching analysts and a herd of grad assistants and staffers that will spend 80 hours a week the next two weeks grinding through every single play call and formation and personnel package and tendency that UC has used at any point of the season, keyed to down and distance, score, clock, game situation, etc.
Alabama’s preparation is like a STEM project. The resources they have is nearly unrivaled. There is a reason they are 6-0 in semi final games and 4 of those games were utter and complete blowouts.
UC’s staff is going to need to think outside the box and change up some looks a bit to succeed.
Well that was kind of depressing to read. Especially the part about changing things up.. denbrock will have a stroke if you tell him he can't run his famous dive-dive-fade-missed fg combo
In all seriousness we are probably not going to do anything different outside a trick play or 2. We are going to have to just beat them by executing our plays perfectly and hopefully getting a few turnovers. I think this is where the fg unit comes back to kill us. Every point counts when you're playing teams like bama and I'd hate to see us lose because we can't make a 40 yard fg
(This post was last modified: 12-05-2021 11:02 PM by Lurkercat.)
Cincy going to have to find a way to overcome Bama's talent. That's going to require opportunistic turnovers, and trick plays. If there are no plus play shenanigans in those areas, this one's probably going to the tape.
(12-05-2021 11:06 PM)jonnylightning Wrote: Cincy going to have to find a way to overcome Bama's talent. That's going to require opportunistic turnovers, and trick plays. If there are no plus play shenanigans in those areas, this one's probably going to the tape.
Good thing we got fake punt practice against ECU. Might need to run that one again
No one thought we had a chance against Georgia but we went toe-to-toe and earned a lot of respect last year. No doubt Bama will outclass us on talent at almost every position, that program is a fricken NFL factory. If we lose, I hope we keep it close and garner that same respect for all of the G5 programs out there. If we somehow manage to win, it will be one of the most historic and iconic wins in sports of all time. Regardless of what happens, this has been such a special season to watch.
(12-05-2021 10:31 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote: It will be interesting. I’m a UC fan 1st and foremost but also a Bama fan the past 8 years due to my kids attending school there. I’ve watched 12 of Alabama’s 13 games (I skipped the FCS game). UC definitely has the personnel and schemes to hang with Alabama but due to it being 3+ weeks away, no way I’d touch the line.
In addition to the coaches, Saban has a dozen coaching analysts and a herd of grad assistants and staffers that will spend 80 hours a week the next two weeks grinding through every single play call and formation and personnel package and tendency that UC has used at any point of the season, keyed to down and distance, score, clock, game situation, etc.
Alabama’s preparation is like a STEM project. The resources they have is nearly unrivaled. There is a reason they are 6-0 in semi final games and 4 of those games were utter and complete blowouts.
UC’s staff is going to need to think outside the box and change up some looks a bit to succeed.
Well that was kind of depressing to read. Especially the part about changing things up.. denbrock will have a stroke if you tell him he can't run his famous dive-dive-fade-missed fg combo
In all seriousness we are probably not going to do anything different outside a trick play or 2. We are going to have to just beat them by executing our plays perfectly and hopefully getting a few turnovers. I think this is where the fg unit comes back to kill us. Every point counts when you're playing teams like bama and I'd hate to see us lose because we can't make a 40 yard fg
Don’t be depressed. It’s nothing that UC’s staff doesn’t already know. We are facing a program with crazy resources. They will spend time tweaking and hiding formations personnel combos and changing tendencies to throw Alabama off. It’s a chess match the next 3 weeks.
I also don’t think UC showed its entire playbook this season yet. Always felt like we had a few pages under glass but never needed to break into it.
On defense I think we will have some different looks we have not used yet to pressure Bryce Young. If you don’t chase him in the pocket, it’s a long day. Kid has a rocket and is incredibly accurate downfield
(This post was last modified: 12-05-2021 11:37 PM by rath v2.0.)
Even if they don't win, if they play a solid, respectable game within 7 to 9 points of Alabama, they will get a lot of respect from me and a lot of FB fans around the country. But yes, it is possible they win, and yes, I will be rooting for Cincy.
(This post was last modified: 12-06-2021 02:21 AM by Fishpro10987.)
