(12-17-2021 10:38 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  NET.....................kenpom......massey......torvik.....median
4 Houston.................5...............9.............3............4.5.......probable NCAA teams
28 UAB.....................42............38...........52..........40.0
76 Memphis..............39.............51...........30..........45.0.......(current top 50 schools)
.....................................................................................................................................
48 Cincinnati.............76............57............55..........56.0*......NIT (or possible NCAA) teams
59 Wichita State........61............58............61..........60.0*
60 Central Florida......56.............71...........67..........63.5*
117 SMU..................77.............81...........87...........84.0^
86 North Texas.........109............88...........81...........87.0^......top 100 schools

*Appears to be on track for the NIT.

^Likely to earn a CBI, if not a NIT bid.

You are using outdated rankings. SMU is 104 in NET today.

(12-17-2021 11:15 AM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  This is the most important weekend we've had. Starting with ECU-Liberty Friday and ending with SMU-NM Sunday, a big weekend propels the league to 4 bids. I'd rank the game from most important to least like this:

1. Memphis/Tennessee
2. UCF/FSU
3. UH/Okst
4. SMU/NM
5. ECU/Liberty
6. Tulsa/CSU
7. Wichita/UNT
8. USF/Florida
9. Temple/Drexel
10. Tulane/Grambling
11. UC/TSU

Tulsa and USF will lose but hopefully everyone else wins.

(12-17-2021 11:22 AM)mustangxc Wrote:  

(12-17-2021 11:15 AM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  This is the most important weekend we've had. Starting with ECU-Liberty Friday and ending with SMU-NM Sunday, a big weekend propels the league to 4 bids. I'd rank the game from most important to least like this:

1. Memphis/Tennessee
2. UCF/FSU
3. UH/Okst
4. SMU/NM
5. ECU/Liberty
6. Tulsa/CSU
7. Wichita/UNT
8. USF/Florida
9. Temple/Drexel
10. Tulane/Grambling
11. UC/TSU

Tulsa and USF will lose but hopefully everyone else wins.

USF doesn't have much of a chance but Tulsa is squirrely enough that I could see them at least giving CSU a scare. Everyone else has at least a strong punchers chance.

(12-17-2021 11:20 AM)mustangxc Wrote:  

(12-17-2021 10:38 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  NET.....................kenpom......massey......torvik.....median
5 Houston.................5...............9.............3............5.......probable NCAA teams
33 UAB.....................43............38...........52..........40.5
57 Memphis..............33.............51...........30.........42.0.......(current top 50 schools)
.....................................................................................................................................
46 Cincinnati.............69............57............55.........56.0*......NIT (or possible NCAA) teams
58 Wichita State........60............58............61.........59.0*
44 Central Florida......47.............71...........67..........57.0*
104 SMU..................77.............81...........87..........84.0^
96 North Texas........109.............88...........81..........92.0^......top 100 schools

*Appears to be on track for the NIT.

^Likely to earn a CBI, if not a NIT bid.

You are using outdated rankings. SMU is 104 in NET today.

NET.....................kenpom......massey......torvik.....median
5 Houston.................5...............9.............2...........4.5.......probable NCAA teams
33 UAB.....................43............38...........53.........40.5
57 Memphis..............33.............52...........25.........42.0
44 Central Florida......47.............69...........46.........46.5.......(current top 50 schools)
.....................................................................................................................................
46 Cincinnati.............69............56............51.........53.5*......NIT (or possible NCAA) teams
58 Wichita State........60............60............64.........60.0*
104 SMU..................77.............97...........90..........84.0^
96 North Texas........109.............89...........79.........92.0^.......top 100 schools

*Appears to be on track for the NIT.

^Likely to earn a CBI, if not a NIT bid.

Numbers updated.

With 4 AAC teams now having NET rankings between 40 and 60, it makes sense that half the bracketmatrix.com bracketologists are predicting there will be 3 AAC teams in the NCAA tournament (not including UAB).

Right now, it's starting to look like UCF might have a slight edge over Cincy and Wichita State.

(12-17-2021 11:22 AM)mustangxc Wrote:  

(12-17-2021 11:15 AM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  This is the most important weekend we've had. Starting with ECU-Liberty Friday and ending with SMU-NM Sunday, a big weekend propels the league to 4 bids. I'd rank the game from most important to least like this:

1. Memphis/Tennessee
2. UCF/FSU
3. UH/Okst
4. SMU/NM
5. ECU/Liberty
6. Tulsa/CSU
7. Wichita/UNT
8. USF/Florida
9. Temple/Drexel
10. Tulane/Grambling
11. UC/TSU

Tulsa and USF will lose but hopefully everyone else wins.

TULSA DIDN'T LOSE!!! (they also didn't win)

Only positive thing I can say about Memphis is they have 2 Q1 wins right now.

(12-17-2021 07:09 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  Only positive thing I can say about Memphis is they have 2 Q1 wins right now.

Not a bad positive. If yall win tomorrow the ship will be righted. Lose and its going to take a really strong conference performance to get yall an at-large.

(12-17-2021 07:16 PM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  

(12-17-2021 07:09 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  Only positive thing I can say about Memphis is they have 2 Q1 wins right now.

Not a bad positive. If yall win tomorrow the ship will be righted. Lose and its going to take a really strong conference performance to get yall an at-large.

Agreed...Lose tomorrow at least 2nd place is likely required to get an at large to the tourney.

The talent is there...

Need to see them perform against a coach who isn't so arrogant to go into the ring Punching with Tyson.

We have learn to play against coaches who are going to dare us to shoot over their defense.

(12-17-2021 07:09 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  Only positive thing I can say about Memphis is they have 2 Q1 wins right now.

Also: solid BBQ, and Graceland.

Well, the cancellation won't help our NET. A win would have boosted it a good bit, and helped our NCAAT case.

A loss would have had minimum negative effects. Damn.

(12-18-2021 02:46 PM)TripleA Wrote:  Well, the cancellation won't help our NET. A win would have boosted it a good bit, and helped our NCAAT case.

A loss would have had minimum negative effects. Damn.

True. However, Memphis still probably has about 9 Q1 and Q2 (~5 Q1, ~4 Q2) games remaining on their schedule.

They're 2-1 (Q1) and 1-1 (Q2) now.

It seems likely that Memphis will split with Houston and win @Cincy, UCF, or Wichita State.

if so, then there's a pretty good chance that they could end up ~ 4-4 (Q1) and ~3-3 (Q2), or ~7-7 (Q1/Q2), even though four of the five Q1 games are @Houston, @Cincy, @ UCF, @ WSU.

That would be the kind of record that we're accustomed to seeing NCAA teams have.

If the Tigers can go about 7-7 in their Q1/Q2 games and win a total of 21 games through the AAC tournament (to finish ~22-9 or 21-10), they should get an at-large bid. If they have to win the AAC tournament to get the auto-bid, my guess is that they probably will.

The best part is that, given the team's tendency to play their best against the toughest competition, they probably have a good chance to make their way to the sweet sixteen and quite possibly, beyond.

My guess is that if they stay healthy and focused, there's about a 50/50 chance that they could make their way to the Elite Eight. I see Larry Brown (not any of the superstar recruits) as the difference maker in the big games and going down the stretch.

.

(12-18-2021 07:04 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(12-18-2021 02:46 PM)TripleA Wrote:  Well, the cancellation won't help our NET. A win would have boosted it a good bit, and helped our NCAAT case.

A loss would have had minimum negative effects. Damn.

True. However, Memphis still probably has about 9 Q1 and Q2 (~5 Q1, ~4 Q2) games remaining on their schedule.

They're 2-1 (Q1) and 1-1 (Q2) now.

It seems likely that Memphis will split with Houston and win @Cincy, UCF, or Wichita State.

if so, then there's a pretty good chance that they could end up ~ 4-4 (Q1) and ~3-3 (Q2), or ~7-7 (Q1/Q2), even though four of the five Q1 games are @Houston, @Cincy, @ UCF, @ WSU.

That would be the kind of record that we're accustomed to seeing NCAA teams have.

If the Tigers can go about 7-7 in their Q1/Q2 games and win a total of 21 games through the AAC tournament (to finish ~22-9 or 21-10), they should get an at-large bid. If they have to win the AAC tournament to get the auto-bid, my guess is that they probably will.

The best part is that, given the team's tendency to play their best against the toughest competition, they probably have a good chance to make their way to the sweet sixteen and quite possibly, beyond.

My guess is that if they stay healthy and focused, there's about a 50/50 chance that they could make their way to the Elite Eight. I see Larry Brown (not any of the superstar recruits) as the difference maker in the big games and going down the stretch.

.

Thanks, Laird Veatch. That has to be the best case scenario, lol. By far.

SMU moves up significantly to 85 in the latest NET rankings. If we can move up just 10 more spots we become an all important Quad 1 game for visiting teams.

(12-19-2021 07:45 PM)TripleA Wrote:  

(12-18-2021 07:04 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(12-18-2021 02:46 PM)TripleA Wrote:  Well, the cancellation won't help our NET. A win would have boosted it a good bit, and helped our NCAAT case.

A loss would have had minimum negative effects. Damn.

True. However, Memphis still probably has about 9 Q1 and Q2 (~5 Q1, ~4 Q2) games remaining on their schedule.

They're 2-1 (Q1) and 1-1 (Q2) now.

It seems likely that Memphis will split with Houston and win @Cincy, UCF, or Wichita State.

if so, then there's a pretty good chance that they could end up ~ 4-4 (Q1) and ~3-3 (Q2), or ~7-7 (Q1/Q2), even though four of the five Q1 games are @Houston, @Cincy, @ UCF, @ WSU.

That would be the kind of record that we're accustomed to seeing NCAA teams have.

If the Tigers can go about 7-7 in their Q1/Q2 games and win a total of 21 games through the AAC tournament (to finish ~22-9 or 21-10), they should get an at-large bid. If they have to win the AAC tournament to get the auto-bid, my guess is that they probably will.

The best part is that, given the team's tendency to play their best against the toughest competition, they probably have a good chance to make their way to the sweet sixteen and quite possibly, beyond.

My guess is that if they stay healthy and focused, there's about a 50/50 chance that they could make their way to the Elite Eight. I see Larry Brown (not any of the superstar recruits) as the difference maker in the big games and going down the stretch.

.

Thanks, Laird Veatch. That has to be the best case scenario, lol. By far.

I'll admit that I painted a fairly rosy picture, and should emphasize that it's all predicated on adopting the changes implemented in the Alabama game - - or as Penders was quoted as saying, Memphis won because they went with Larry Brown's offensive scheme.

If it was too rosy, Memphis could easily end up in the NIT, and their chances of repeating as NIT champion might be less than 50/50, since it wouldn't be as much of a challenge to the players as it was last time.