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Average Kenpom College Basketball Conference Rankings
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TribeNiner Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Average Kenpom College Basketball Conference Rankings
So I decided it would be wise to introduce a little bit more data into this picture to see where the new conferences stand. To do this, I went back three years (inclusive of this year) in KenPom's rankings. The following are the results:

Current AAC:
2020 - 98.5 average
2021 - 100.8 average
2022 - 102.6 average
3 year average - 100.6

Future AAC:
3 year average - 135.7 (drop ~35 spots)

Current CUSA:
2020 - 174.2
2021 - 168.0
2022 - 176.8
3 year average - 173.0

Future CUSA:
3 year average - 157.4 (rise of ~15.5 spots)

Current SB:
2020 - 175.8
2021 - 230.1
2022 - 199.1
3 year average - 201.6

Future SB:
3 year average - 200 (rise ~1.5 spots)

This should be a little more accurate of the true mean of the programs for more recent seasons, as it isn't subject to the whims of a single snapshot within a single season. Obviously, you could make an argument for going back 5 years, etc., I just didn't feel like doing more years of data entry.
(This post was last modified: 01-26-2022 10:26 AM by TribeNiner.)
01-26-2022 10:21 AM
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goherd24herdfans Offline
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Post: #22
RE: Average Kenpom College Basketball Conference Rankings
(01-24-2022 09:14 AM)WKUFan518 Wrote:  
(01-23-2022 08:10 PM)MT FAN Wrote:  Marshall, ODU, and Southern Miss are all getting started a year earlier for the crappy basketball in the Sun Belt.

100%, will all suck for Sun Belt.

You wish you were moving up to the sunbelt. Cusa sucks. The AAC has dropped to laughable cusa levels as well.

The sunbelt sucks in basketball but will still get one bid, the same as the new aac, and cusa. In football, the sunbelt is much better.
01-31-2022 02:30 AM
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topper1296 Offline
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Post: #23
RE: Average Kenpom College Basketball Conference Rankings
(01-31-2022 02:30 AM)goherd24herdfans Wrote:  
(01-24-2022 09:14 AM)WKUFan518 Wrote:  
(01-23-2022 08:10 PM)MT FAN Wrote:  Marshall, ODU, and Southern Miss are all getting started a year earlier for the crappy basketball in the Sun Belt.

100%, will all suck for Sun Belt.

You wish you were moving up to the sunbelt. Cusa sucks. The AAC has dropped to laughable cusa levels as well.

The sunbelt sucks in basketball but will still get one bid, the same as the new aac, and cusa. In football, the sunbelt is much better.

Who is more likely to advance and earn NCAA tourney credits? The one bid conference with a higher seed like CUSA or the AAC will have or the lower seed that the SBC will have.
01-31-2022 12:03 PM
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TribeNiner Offline
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Post: #24
RE: Average Kenpom College Basketball Conference Rankings
Updated for games through January:

Current AAC:
2020 - 98.5 average
2021 - 100.8 average
2022 - 105.9 average
3 year average - 101.7

Future AAC:
3 year average - 136.6 (drop ~35 spots)

Current CUSA:
2020 - 174.2
2021 - 168.0
2022 - 177.6
3 year average - 173.3

Future CUSA:
3 year average - 163.7 (rise of ~9.5 spots)

Current SB:
2020 - 175.8
2021 - 230.1
2022 - 196.4
3 year average - 200.8

Future SB:
3 year average - 199.4 (rise ~1.5 spots)
(This post was last modified: 02-01-2022 09:22 AM by TribeNiner.)
02-01-2022 09:21 AM
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TribeNiner Offline
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Post: #25
RE: Average Kenpom College Basketball Conference Rankings
Updated for games through the first week of February (BartTorvik):

Current AAC:
2020 - 98.5 average
2021 - 100.8 average
2022 - 99.3 average
3 year average - 99.5

Future AAC:
3 year average - 133.4 (drop ~34 spots)

Current CUSA:
2020 - 174.2
2021 - 168.0
2022 - 172.4
3 year average - 171.5

Future CUSA:
3 year average - 161.0 (rise of ~10.5 spots)

Current SB:
2020 - 175.8
2021 - 230.1
2022 - 198.2
3 year average - 201.3

Future SB:
3 year average - 200.2 (rise ~1 spot)
02-08-2022 10:04 AM
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DaBigBlue Offline
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Post: #26
RE: Average Kenpom College Basketball Conference Rankings
I think with the SB3 dragging CUSA down, they would want them out as quick as possible.
02-08-2022 11:00 AM
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TribeNiner Offline
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Post: #27
RE: Average Kenpom College Basketball Conference Rankings
(02-08-2022 11:00 AM)DaBigBlue Wrote:  I think with the SB3 dragging CUSA down, they would want them out as quick as possible.

Since you asked...

This year's full CUSA average (as of the last update I did): 172.4
This year's CUSA average without the AAC6: 180.1
CUSA average without the SB3: 151
CUSA average without the SB3 and the AAC6: 149.2
02-09-2022 09:20 AM
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dawgonit Offline
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Post: #28
RE: Average Kenpom College Basketball Conference Rankings
(02-08-2022 11:00 AM)DaBigBlue Wrote:  I think with the SB3 dragging CUSA down, they would want them out as quick as possible.

Although they do bring the average down, if they left, the increase in the average ranking wouldn't really have any tangible difference. A second bid wouldn't come from it. What would happen by them leaving is every member having to travel more and probably a decrease in attendance for many games. So them leaving IMO would make the situation slightly worse compared to the status quo. The average ranking going up a bit doesn't offset that.
02-10-2022 02:26 AM
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Milwaukee Offline
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Post: #29
RE: Average Kenpom College Basketball Conference Rankings
(01-23-2022 03:50 PM)dawgonit Wrote:  
(01-23-2022 03:42 PM)sstaedtler88 Wrote:  Had some free time so here are the Kenpom rankings per conference using the new conferences. I put ASUN in there only because Liberty was coming from there.


Average team rankings in Kenpom today for MBB conferences:

Mt. West #112.0
New AAC #138.6
New CUSA #141.4
New Sun Belt #200.6
MAC #207.5
ASUN #235.5

So basically, new Conference USA will rival the AAC in basketball and is far, far superior to the Sun Belt or the MAC. CUSA has moved up in basketball as Sam Houston just beat Stephen F. Austin, New Mexico State, and Grand Canyon in a row, which moved them up quite a bit.

I think everyone sees and knows now that the new CUSA will be a very respectable conference in basketball. But will it be enough to get two bids?

The AAC took a big hit in basketball. I think that's the main take away.

Yep - unless/until the AAC remainers or newbies improve, the AAC they probably drop behind the WCC, MWC, A10, MVC, falling from 7th place to 12th or lower - - at least "until the bleeding stops" (until 2 or 3 teams step up and fill the gap left by the departure of UC, UH, & UCF.
02-10-2022 03:29 AM
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TTT Offline
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Post: #30
RE: Average Kenpom College Basketball Conference Rankings
Here's a better metric: conferences that send the same number of bids to the dance and NIT are equal.
02-10-2022 03:33 AM
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Milwaukee Offline
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Post: #31
RE: Average Kenpom College Basketball Conference Rankings
(01-31-2022 02:30 AM)goherd24herdfans Wrote:  
(01-24-2022 09:14 AM)WKUFan518 Wrote:  Marshall, ODU, and Southern Miss are all getting started a year earlier for the (poor) basketball in the Sun Belt.

Cusa sucks.

You're misinformed if you think the CUSA is having a bad year in basketball.

The truth is that CUSA basketball is having a pretty good season.

The Massey Composite (which averages all the rankings from dozens of well-regarded ranking systems) shows that the CUSA is ranked 12th among the nation's 32 D1 conferences this year.

Two CUSA teams ((#39 NET) UAB and (#53 NET) N. Texas) are being listed as potential 11 or 12 seeds in this year's NCAA tournament. One of these two teams will most likely play in the NCAA, and the other will probably play in the NIT, though UAB's NET ranking is high enough to make UAB eligible for an at-large bid another CUSA team wins the conf. tourney.



(01-31-2022 02:30 AM)goherd24herdfans Wrote:  The AAC has dropped to laughable cusa levels as well.
.

So you consider (#6 AP) Houston to be 'laughable?"

An implied suggestion such as that might direct some laughter at the one who wrote it.

Or perhaps it's (17-5 #64) SMU or (13-8 #53) Memphis or 15-7 Cincinnati, which won the 2021 NIT tournament championship that you find "laughable?" All four of these teams are likely to play in this year's NCAA or NIT tournaments.

If it's not those teams, then perhaps it's the conference as a whole that you're laughing at. What is it about the conference that is ranked #7 in the nation by the Massey Composite that you find so funny?

https://masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm

Perhaps you're simply laughing to keep yourself from crying? After all, you seem to consider yourself a fan of (if not a good ambassador for) the Sun Belt Conference, and the Sun Belt is ranked #15 by the Massey Composite well behind the CUSA and the AAC.

https://masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm

.

Lastly, perhaps you're worried about the future of the se conferences, and
these worries are causing you to laugh nervously?

If so, you needn't worry any longer. Both conferences have a number of quality legacy basketball programs, and they're quite likely to bounce back after going through this transition period that we're in now.

.

Somehow, your comments reminded me of this quotation of the words of a wise man:

“Why do you look at the speck of sawdust in your brother’s eye and fail to notice the plank in your own?

How can you say to your brother, ‘Let me get the speck out of your eye’, when there is a plank in your own?

Take the plank out of your own eye first, and then you can see clearly enough to remove your brother’s speck of dust.”

Matthew 7:3-5

.
(This post was last modified: 02-10-2022 04:23 AM by Milwaukee.)
02-10-2022 04:20 AM
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whupemall Offline
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Post: #32
RE: Average Kenpom College Basketball Conference Rankings
(02-10-2022 03:33 AM)TTT Wrote:  Here's a better metric: conferences that send the same number of bids to the dance and NIT are equal.

This is valid.

When it comes to the rankings, rather than looking a the conference averages, which can be pulled down by a couple of trash programs, count the number of teams in the Top 10, Top 25, Top 50, etc.

A conference with a ranking average of 180 may look weak, but if it's managed to sneak a team into the Top 25, and has another 1-2 programs in the Top 75, it's anything but weak. Sure, the bottom half of the conference may be cupcakes, but you can't win the conference without surviving the murderers' row at the top.

Likewise, a conference with an average of 150 is solid, but if it doesn't have a single team in the Top 100, it's also solidly a one-bid conference. It could be an incredibly fun conference to watch, if most of its members have similar rankings, but it likely won't make much of a splash in the NCAA Tourney.

I assigned points for each team's ranking, with 10 points for a Top 5 team, 9 for 6th-10th, 8 for 11th-15th, on down to 1 point for 151st-200th. Teams ranked lower than 200 were given a score of 0.

When I ran these numbers, the average score showed CUSA and AAC were very close, with a clear separation between them and the Sun Belt:

(Higher is better; scores shown post-realignment based on current NET ranking)
AAC 2.86
CUSA 2.78
SBC 0.79

However, as I said above, the average is pulled down by the bottom teams in the conference. The teams with the most impact on a conference's strength are those at the top. They're the ones who get the postseason bids. They're the ones capturing hearts and eyeballs during March Madness.

With this in mind, the raw sum total score is much more telling:

AAC 40
CUSA 25
SBC 11

The AAC, even post-realignment, is far stronger at the top than either CUSA or the SBC.

Just for comparison, here's how all three stack up against a sampling of current (spring 2022) conferences:

Ranked by Average Score:
SEC 5.43
ACC 4.0
AAC 2.86
CUSA 2.78
SoCon 1.7
OVC 1.5
SBC 0.79

Ranked by Total Score:
SEC 76
ACC 60
AAC 40
CUSA 25
SoCon 17
OVC 15
SBC 11
(This post was last modified: 02-10-2022 11:29 AM by whupemall.)
02-10-2022 11:28 AM
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Dusky Offline
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Post: #33
RE: Average Kenpom College Basketball Conference Rankings
(02-10-2022 04:20 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  
(01-31-2022 02:30 AM)goherd24herdfans Wrote:  
(01-24-2022 09:14 AM)WKUFan518 Wrote:  Marshall, ODU, and Southern Miss are all getting started a year earlier for the (poor) basketball in the Sun Belt.

Cusa sucks.

You're misinformed if you think the CUSA is having a bad year in basketball.

The truth is that CUSA basketball is having a pretty good season.

The Massey Composite (which averages all the rankings from dozens of well-regarded ranking systems) shows that the CUSA is ranked 12th among the nation's 32 D1 conferences this year.

Two CUSA teams ((#39 NET) UAB and (#53 NET) N. Texas) are being listed as potential 11 or 12 seeds in this year's NCAA tournament. One of these two teams will most likely play in the NCAA, and the other will probably play in the NIT, though UAB's NET ranking is high enough to make UAB eligible for an at-large bid another CUSA team wins the conf. tourney.



(01-31-2022 02:30 AM)goherd24herdfans Wrote:  The AAC has dropped to laughable cusa levels as well.
.

So you consider (#6 AP) Houston to be 'laughable?"

An implied suggestion such as that might direct some laughter at the one who wrote it.

Or perhaps it's (17-5 #64) SMU or (13-8 #53) Memphis or 15-7 Cincinnati, which won the 2021 NIT tournament championship that you find "laughable?" All four of these teams are likely to play in this year's NCAA or NIT tournaments.

If it's not those teams, then perhaps it's the conference as a whole that you're laughing at. What is it about the conference that is ranked #7 in the nation by the Massey Composite that you find so funny?

https://masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm

Perhaps you're simply laughing to keep yourself from crying? After all, you seem to consider yourself a fan of (if not a good ambassador for) the Sun Belt Conference, and the Sun Belt is ranked #15 by the Massey Composite well behind the CUSA and the AAC.

https://masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm

.

Lastly, perhaps you're worried about the future of the se conferences, and
these worries are causing you to laugh nervously?

If so, you needn't worry any longer. Both conferences have a number of quality legacy basketball programs, and they're quite likely to bounce back after going through this transition period that we're in now.

.

Somehow, your comments reminded me of this quotation of the words of a wise man:

“Why do you look at the speck of sawdust in your brother’s eye and fail to notice the plank in your own?

How can you say to your brother, ‘Let me get the speck out of your eye’, when there is a plank in your own?

Take the plank out of your own eye first, and then you can see clearly enough to remove your brother’s speck of dust.”

Matthew 7:3-5

.

Please don't confuse goherd with facts, he gets very angry.
02-10-2022 12:14 PM
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dawgonit Offline
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Post: #34
RE: Average Kenpom College Basketball Conference Rankings
(02-10-2022 11:28 AM)whupemall Wrote:  
(02-10-2022 03:33 AM)TTT Wrote:  Here's a better metric: conferences that send the same number of bids to the dance and NIT are equal.

This is valid.

When it comes to the rankings, rather than looking a the conference averages, which can be pulled down by a couple of trash programs, count the number of teams in the Top 10, Top 25, Top 50, etc.

A conference with a ranking average of 180 may look weak, but if it's managed to sneak a team into the Top 25, and has another 1-2 programs in the Top 75, it's anything but weak. Sure, the bottom half of the conference may be cupcakes, but you can't win the conference without surviving the murderers' row at the top.

Likewise, a conference with an average of 150 is solid, but if it doesn't have a single team in the Top 100, it's also solidly a one-bid conference. It could be an incredibly fun conference to watch, if most of its members have similar rankings, but it likely won't make much of a splash in the NCAA Tourney.

I assigned points for each team's ranking, with 10 points for a Top 5 team, 9 for 6th-10th, 8 for 11th-15th, on down to 1 point for 151st-200th. Teams ranked lower than 200 were given a score of 0.

When I ran these numbers, the average score showed CUSA and AAC were very close, with a clear separation between them and the Sun Belt:

(Higher is better; scores shown post-realignment based on current NET ranking)
AAC 2.86
CUSA 2.78
SBC 0.79

However, as I said above, the average is pulled down by the bottom teams in the conference. The teams with the most impact on a conference's strength are those at the top. They're the ones who get the postseason bids. They're the ones capturing hearts and eyeballs during March Madness.

With this in mind, the raw sum total score is much more telling:

AAC 40
CUSA 25
SBC 11

The AAC, even post-realignment, is far stronger at the top than either CUSA or the SBC.

Just for comparison, here's how all three stack up against a sampling of current (spring 2022) conferences:

Ranked by Average Score:
SEC 5.43
ACC 4.0
AAC 2.86
CUSA 2.78
SoCon 1.7
OVC 1.5
SBC 0.79

Ranked by Total Score:
SEC 76
ACC 60
AAC 40
CUSA 25
SoCon 17
OVC 15
SBC 11

Quality work there. If I could give reputation, I would. However I don't necessarily see the reasoning on how you decided the points based on team ranking as a way of measuring and comparing but I still this does show some interesting comparisons.

Wouldn't the raw sum total though favor conferences with more members? They can have more average members and just rack up more points that way but not necessarily be a stronger league?
02-10-2022 12:17 PM
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whupemall Offline
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Post: #35
RE: Average Kenpom College Basketball Conference Rankings
(02-10-2022 12:17 PM)dawgonit Wrote:  Quality work there. If I could give reputation, I would. However I don't necessarily see the reasoning on how you decided the points based on team ranking as a way of measuring and comparing but I still this does show some interesting comparisons.

Wouldn't the raw sum total though favor conferences with more members? They can have more average members and just rack up more points that way but not necessarily be a stronger league?

It made sense at the time. 03-wink

The scale I used was mainly to simplify the numbers. I could've just said OK, 358 total teams, so #1 is worth 358 points, #2 is 357, #3 356, and so on. But at the end of the day, I figured there's not much difference between a team ranked 140 and one ranked 145. When they play each other, it can go either way. So a range seemed more appropriate.

Additionally, if we're gauging strength, schools in the 200s and 300s don't bring much to the table. So my system stopped awarding points at #200.

Here's the complete scale I used:

Ranking - Points
1-5 - 10
6-10 - 9
11-15 - 8
16-25 - 7
26-50 - 6
51-75 - 5
76-100 - 4
101-125 - 3
126-150 - 2
151-200 - 1
201+ - 0

As for the number of conference members throwing off the count, you're right that it can in certain cases. (What really throws it off is if one conference plays round-robin and another plays in strict divisions with minimal overlap. In the latter case, ranking each division separately would be the way to go.)

The reason I wasn't too bothered by this for my comparison is that, as long as you're playing everyone in the conference, it doesn't matter if Conference A has two more members than Conference B. If the two conferences are otherwise equal, and Conference A's two extra members are weak (i.e., ranked lower than 200), there's no advantage. A doesn't gain any points over B, despite having more teams.

As those extra members increase in strength, Conference A will eventually get a bump over Conference B.

But if Conference A has two more strong teams than Conference B, it follows that Conference A is the stronger conference.

As a real world example, the new Sun Belt has five more members than CUSA 4.0. But they don't gain any advantage because six SBC teams add 0 points, and another five teams only add a single point each.

Even though CUSA 4.0 is smaller, they only have one zero point team and two one-point teams. Translation: while CUSA 4.0 isn't exactly a multi-bid conference, most games will be against reasonably strong opponents ranked in the Top 150.

Meanwhile, the American makes us both look bad, with nearly half the conference ranked in the Top 100. Is the bottom half of the conference strong? No, not at all. So they don't gain anything from their two zero-point members, and only a mild bump from their four one-point teams, but the top half of the conference more than makes up for that.
02-10-2022 03:15 PM
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TTT Offline
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Post: #36
RE: Average Kenpom College Basketball Conference Rankings
I'm extremely lazy but would be very appreciative if someone could post the # of bids to the NCAA tourney and NIT tourney over the last 5-10 years for CUSA, SBC, and AAC respectively. Curious to see how many teams made it per conference so we can compare.
02-10-2022 07:59 PM
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MT FAN Offline
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RE: Average Kenpom College Basketball Conference Rankings
The amount of games won in the NCAA and NIT tournaments is much higher for CUSA vs the Sun Belt. All one bid conferences are not equal.
02-10-2022 09:30 PM
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Post: #38
RE: Average Kenpom College Basketball Conference Rankings
A good way for conferences to compare strength are the challenges. Fans can get directly involved in these conference vs conference OOC matchups which helps make the OOC more interesting.

The MWC vs the MVC challenge ended in 2018. I think CUSA 4.0 vs the MVC in a challenge would help inform the coolege basketball world that CUSA basketball can be a top 10 conference.
02-11-2022 09:04 AM
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Engblazr Offline
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Post: #39
RE: Average Kenpom College Basketball Conference Rankings
(02-10-2022 07:59 PM)TTT Wrote:  I'm extremely lazy but would be very appreciative if someone could post the # of bids to the NCAA tourney and NIT tourney over the last 5-10 years for CUSA, SBC, and AAC respectively. Curious to see how many teams made it per conference so we can compare.

AAC? They have had 21 bids in their history starting in the 2014 tournament. Would have been more had the Covid tournament happened. CUSA and SBC had one team each of those years. So 7 total for those. AAC had three seasons with 2 teams. Three seasons with 4 teams. One seasons with 3 bids.
02-11-2022 10:56 AM
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inutech Offline
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Post: #40
RE: Average Kenpom College Basketball Conference Rankings
(02-10-2022 09:30 PM)MT FAN Wrote:  The amount of games won in the NCAA and NIT tournaments is much higher for CUSA vs the Sun Belt. All one bid conferences are not equal.

Not to make the case for an early exit (my feelings haven't changed on that) but just because I'll take any excuse to beat this horse - a single bid situation is also a very good argument for the new CUSA remaining at 9 teams (because you divide that money by a smaller denominator).

On the other hand (and I know it was tongue in cheek) the awful basketball play of the SB schools isn't really an argument for turning them loose early - because we don't just play basketball in CUSA.
(This post was last modified: 02-11-2022 11:22 AM by inutech.)
02-11-2022 11:18 AM
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