I think it is split. but there is a lot of Russian separatists who wants to be part of Russia.

(02-21-2022 01:56 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  According to the radio report I just heard, Putin is speaking right now and has apparently declared the separatist regions of Ukraine as "independent". I would assume the next step from this play book would be the requesting of Russian military assistance by the newly recognized "independent" separatist areas.

I think you're right, and then he basically has two options. Crimea also briefly declared independence and was recognized by Putin, before holding a questionable referendum and being reincorporated into Russia itself. The other option is something more like Abkhazia and South Ossetia, breakaway parts of the Republic of Georgia that are recognized as independent nations by Russia and a handful of other countries and have been for years, with the Russians propping them up but not moving to actually annex them into Russia.

Either way will be interesting to see what NATO does, much will likely hinge on what definition of "further invasion" 30 countries can agree upon. But the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics only control half or less of the Donbass region that they claim, so if Russia moves to help them liberate the remainder of "their territory" that is quite likely to qualify.

Overall I think this shows that Putin didn't expect to get what he wanted out of the Minsk protocols, which he has called for the West to force Ukraine to fully implement for years. By recognizing the DPR & LPR he has cast the Minsk protocols aside. They may not like it, but Ukraine may be better off to see the Donbass go then have it undermining their desire for closer ties to the West from inside.

Would you want to give parts of the USA away in an effort to please an enemy? Nobody wants war, but what does Ukraine want? I do not fault Ukraine if they want to fight to save all of their land.

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(02-21-2022 02:24 PM)hburg Wrote:  Would you want to give parts of the USA away in an effort to please an enemy? Nobody wants war, but what does Ukraine want? I do not fault Ukraine if they want to fight to save all if their land.

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It'd be like if LA and everything south wanted to join Mexico and Mexico offered to use their army to clear out any US forces.

As much as some of us would be ok with that, no way would we allow it.

(02-21-2022 02:09 PM)solohawks Wrote:  

(02-21-2022 01:21 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  At minimum he’s taking the eastern portion down to connect to the Crimea. Nothing the geezer in chief can do about it.

What do the people of the eastern Ukrainian territory want?

To be apart of Russia or Ukraine?

(02-21-2022 02:10 PM)hburg Wrote:  I think it is split. but there is a lot of Russian separatists who wants to be part of Russia.

It is a mixed region, but I don't know what the percentages in favor of Ukraine/Russia are. It is a region where the Russian language is more prominent than Ukrainian, but of course not all of those Russian speakers actually want to join Russia. It did, like the rest of Ukraine, vote for independence in the 90s but that was to secede from a crumbling Soviet Union, not leave Russia. In any event I think virtually all sources would agree that the people in Eastern Ukraine are much more pro-Russian than the rest of the country.

Russia has given out hundreds of thousands of Russian passports in the occupied portions of the Donbass over the last few years, so one option might be for those who wish to be part of Russia to simply move there. The best idea might have been to hold free & fair referendums in the Donbass & Crimea years ago to see which country they preferred to be part of, but that option was lost a long time ago after Russian occupation and the strengthening of Ukrainian identity as a result. That's a weak spot for the international community, many countries with separatist regions are loathe to allow for any orderly, democratic redrawing of borders lest the precedent come back to haunt them. There's no great answer that I know of, secessionist referendums all over the globe would destabilize things, but situations like this do as well.

(02-21-2022 02:10 PM)hburg Wrote:  I think it is split. but there is a lot of Russian separatists who wants to be part of Russia.

I don’t think there are a lot of separatist but there are a lot That want a Russian leaning Ukraine

Yeah, I have felt for awhile now Putin was gathering his army to be ready to move in after the separatists separate. It becomes an entirely different matter if they are invited.

(02-21-2022 02:24 PM)hburg Wrote:  Would you want to give parts of the USA away in an effort to please an enemy? Nobody wants war, but what does Ukraine want? I do not fault Ukraine if they want to fight to save all of their land.

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No I don't blame them a bit, the Donbass is certainly not Crimea which only became part of Ukraine through a stroke of Khrushchev's pen in 1954. But they do have to operate in reality, and they cannot win a war with Russia. So it may be the best option Ukraine has to let the Donbass go, IF that paves the way for the remainder of the country to fully integrate with the West (eventually joining the EU & NATO) and thus be protected from future Russian territorial ambitions.

Russia will always be against Ukraine joining with the west.

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(02-21-2022 02:25 PM)bobdizole Wrote:  

(02-21-2022 02:24 PM)hburg Wrote:  Would you want to give parts of the USA away in an effort to please an enemy? Nobody wants war, but what does Ukraine want? I do not fault Ukraine if they want to fight to save all if their land.

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It'd be like if LA and everything south wanted to join Mexico and Mexico offered to use their army to clear out any US forces.

As much as some of us would be ok with that, no way would we allow it.

It would be like if the US declared their independence and then got a powerful country to support it until it got in its feet. That’s definitely illegal under the “rules based international order” the US speaks of so often.

Or in the more modern sense, it would be like Taiwan or Kosovo receiving US support for independence despite the fact that their lands are claimed by a larger country and their independence is denied by those countries.

But I guess the situations aren’t exactly the same, because the US won’t be getting foreign bases in Donbas like they have in Kosovo and Taiwan, et al. But I guess I shouldn’t speculate, these new independent republics can choose their own destinies like any other independent nations can. Perhaps they will seek NATO membership down the road? We just don’t know yet what their futures hold.

But this is by far the best possible outcome. Let democracy decide things and listen to the will of the people. That way, there doesn’t have to be any invasion of Ukraine, no one gets hurt or killed, the places don’t all end up as bombed out shells, and everyone can just go on their own paths to peace and prosperity. Or in the case of the rump of Ukraine, back to instigation and poverty.

Looks like Putin just signed a decree recognizing the separatists regions....

Putin knows we have an empty suit at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. surrounded by hacks and low-T wussies.

(02-21-2022 02:09 PM)solohawks Wrote:  

(02-21-2022 01:21 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  At minimum he’s taking the eastern portion down to connect to the Crimea. Nothing the geezer in chief can do about it.

What do the people of the eastern Ukrainian territory want?

To be apart of Russia or Ukraine?

My guess is that a vote would lean Russian, but there is a little more to it. Its worth noting that this Russian majority is largely because the ethnic Ukrainians who used to live there were replaced with ethnic Russians through a period of executions, starvation (basically a man made famine), and forced relocations that began in 1930's. That said, I tend to want self-determination for people. The people who live there now are the people who live there now. Its not their fault how they came to live there.

Thats why my preferred outcome is actually a partition of Ukraine into an East Ukraine and an West Ukraine. That would allow the eastern part of Ukraine to be a nation that leans east and is a satellite of Russia (or even part of Russia if thats what the folks who live there want) while West Ukraine (whats left of the existing independent Ukraine) leans west and is allowed to seek its own future as a member of the EU or as a member of NATO (assuming that's what the people of W Ukraine desire and assuming NATO agrees to it).

(02-21-2022 02:24 PM)hburg Wrote:  Would you want to give parts of the USA away in an effort to please an enemy? Nobody wants war, but what does Ukraine want? I do not fault Ukraine if they want to fight to save all of their land.

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I don’t either, but they aren’t going to find enough people willing to fight for it, which says it all. Sure they wouldn’t mind keeping the eastern part if someone else is willing to fight and die for it, but few in Ukraine are.

(02-21-2022 10:18 AM)Gamenole Wrote:  I'm going with this week as well. bobdizole has a good point and if it doesn't happen this week then I think Putin may have figured out a way to get part of what he wants, or at least save face, without invading.

Looks like he just did.

Not been paying a LOT of attention today, but he’s signed some “agreement of friendship” or some crap with two provinces or whatever they call them that supposedly either want to be independent or rejoin Russia.

Either way, not our problem. Zalynskyy or their parliament (or whatever they have) should call for a referendum and see if the people want to rejoin Mother Russia.
If they go, they go.

(02-21-2022 02:49 PM)49RFootballNow Wrote:  Putin knows we have an empty suit at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. surrounded by hacks and low-T wussies.

He also knows we have a populace that doesn't have the appetite for active US military action.

(02-21-2022 03:11 PM)JMUDunk Wrote:  

(02-21-2022 10:18 AM)Gamenole Wrote:  I'm going with this week as well. bobdizole has a good point and if it doesn't happen this week then I think Putin may have figured out a way to get part of what he wants, or at least save face, without invading.

Looks like he just did.

Not been paying a LOT of attention today, but he’s signed some “agreement of friendship” or some crap with two provinces or whatever they call them that supposedly either want to be independent or rejoin Russia.

Either way, not our problem. Zalynskyy or their parliament (or whatever they have) should call for a referendum and see if the people want to rejoin Mother Russia.
If they go, they go.

There is nothing the Ukrainian government can do about it right now.

However---its worth noting that since nobody will sell Ukraine long range weapons for fear of upsetting the Russians, Ukraine is developing its own domestically produced heavy cruise missiles capable of ranging quite deeply into Russia. Most of them are essentially just modified anti-ship cruise missiles that can hit land or sea targets. Once Ukraine gets them on line, the cost of attacking Ukraine instantly becomes much much higher for Russia. At least one of these longer range weapons systems is just months from becoming operational---so its very possible that is the answer to the "why now?" question. Cruise missiles knocking out major oil/fuel facilities, electric power plants, communications hubs, airports, and airbases deep inside Russia would make the war as real for the people of Russia as it is for the people of Ukraine. That would make any attempt to attack Ukraine MUCH less politically palatable for Russian leadership.

While Ukraine would still be no match for Russia---it certainly could make Russia pay a substantially higher cost for any aggression.

(02-21-2022 02:09 PM)solohawks Wrote:  

(02-21-2022 01:21 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  At minimum he’s taking the eastern portion down to connect to the Crimea. Nothing the geezer in chief can do about it.

What do the people of the eastern Ukrainian territory want?

To be apart of Russia or Ukraine?

I’ve seen both. People bugging out due to the threat of war, and where are they going?

Poland, Romania, Hungary perhaps? Nope, they’re packing up and heading on over to…. Russia!

I say let ‘em go if they wanna go.

(02-21-2022 03:24 PM)JMUDunk Wrote:  

(02-21-2022 02:09 PM)solohawks Wrote:  

(02-21-2022 01:21 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  At minimum he’s taking the eastern portion down to connect to the Crimea. Nothing the geezer in chief can do about it.

What do the people of the eastern Ukrainian territory want?

To be apart of Russia or Ukraine?

I’ve seen both. People bugging out due to the threat of war, and where are they going?

Poland, Romania, Hungary perhaps? Nope, they’re packing up and heading on over to…. Russia!

I say let ‘em go if they wanna go.

Didnt Russia recently send the entire population of the region passports?

(02-21-2022 03:11 PM)JMUDunk Wrote:  

(02-21-2022 10:18 AM)Gamenole Wrote:  I'm going with this week as well. bobdizole has a good point and if it doesn't happen this week then I think Putin may have figured out a way to get part of what he wants, or at least save face, without invading.

Looks like he just did.

Not been paying a LOT of attention today, but he’s signed some “agreement of friendship” or some crap with two provinces or whatever they call them that supposedly either want to be independent or rejoin Russia.

Either way, not our problem. Zalynskyy or their parliament (or whatever they have) should call for a referendum and see if the people want to rejoin Mother Russia.
If they go, they go.

In a way it is our problem. We talked Ukraine into signing a disarmament treaty. If Ukraine was willing to give up their nuclear arsenal we (and other countries) would help them.