(08-04-2022 05:46 AM)82hawk Wrote: (08-03-2022 09:22 AM)DrachenFire Wrote: Well I guess now #14 is locked in. Don't really see what the rush was to get this done in early August.
I still think the goal is to get to 16 so locking in Campbell for 2023 solidifies a southern and northern division for geography and travel, making it easier to bring on the last two schools.
Based on some of the statements coming from the schools they are always mentioning "markets". Campbell and the Raleigh area and NC A&T and the Greensboro market. I wouldn't be surprised to see Winthrop come on from the Charlotte area and another school from the North with football in a large metropolitan area.
What school from the North has football and (and is not already spoken for by the CAA) has a large metro area? Short answer: NO SCHOOL fits that bill and is a viable option. You have the IVY Schools (DOA concept), MEAC schools (DOA unless it is Howard and that's not exactly north but I will grant you that one), the Patriot (no chance those schools are leaving one another), the Pioneer and NEC leagues (similar but slightly different, however not a single school fits the bill athletically).
If, and that's a big one, the CAA decides to go the route of 16, the candidates are likely the following:
North: Albany, Fairfield, and Quinnipiac.
South: UMBC, High Point, Winthrop, Norfolk St, Howard
Of course, the CAA can take another run at Furman, Wofford, or Greensboro however, I just don't see any making a move.
From everything I have heard, Howard is still a goal with the hopes that either everyone in the MEAC finds a home next year or the league just implodes. If you look at the MEAC, a large portion of the members have their sports in other leagues. There is literally no rush for the CAA to go to 16 if they believe Howard will eventually come. In the Howard scenario, then you would bring in one more team that doesn't have football.
If the CAA moves on from Howard, which is equally as likely, and wants to go to 16 then it has a host of options. First, for football, I think it was Sitting Bull who mentioned it...you really don't have to go to 16. However, if that was desired, my guess is a school like Bryant COULD get a surprise affiliate membership. Otherwise, the CAA's options in the South are as equally limited as they are in the North and you are probably looking at Norfolk State or North Carolina Central.
If they go the affiliate route or leave football at 15, things get really interesting. You could raid the AE and take Albany for the North and UMBC for the Northern most Southern team (effectively taking the Howard slot). That said, UMBC doesn't really spend on athletics and I don't see a massive want to spend. They AE is tough for them geography-wise but they fit in all other aspects. My guess is the slot comes down to Albany or Fairfield, which is another reason why Albany moved up the timeline for the Arena renovations that started 3 days ago (we know Fairfield is building their new arena). Albany is about to spend close to 100 million on athletic facility upgrades in the next 4-6 years and while Fairfield is a CAA affiliate lax member, Albany's football membership holds more sway (from what I am being told) and Albany brings in a stronger lax program to add to Fairfield's lax program. Quite frankly, bringing in an Albany lax team pushes CAA lax up a level considering what they just lost to the A-10. My understanding is that the CAA wants to come out of the gate on track and field (pun intended), coupling the historically strong A&T, NU, and W&M programs with the up and coming Stony Brook program and the Albany program that basically went head to head with NU every year until they left, then took over dominance in the AE. Albany has its warts, zero doubt, including geography...but my understanding is they are the front runner for the Northern slot. Albany is also "this close" to having the Nano college returned to it by the State (it was given to SUNY Poly in a political move). This would push Albany's R&D to the most in the CAA, even beyond Stony Brook's impressive haul and would vault Albany back up the academic ladder to where it once was (in the low 100's). The negotiations for that are ongoing, with the goal for Albany to take over Albany Law and Med as well, for an end goal of an AAU invite. I want to be clear that I am not pining for Albany to join the CAA, this is not a PR move...I still question what the CAA is trying to do...but I am just pointing out particulars of Albany for others who may not know because it is pertinent to why they are in the discussion.
Southern-wise, I have been told it is a split decision between Winthrop and High Point. Interestingly, Winthrop just authorized a "top-down" review of its athletic department.
Of course, the CAA could pull a super whammy and go for two Southern based schools. That would require both W&M and Hampton to go to the North, which I don't think the Northern flank would want from a travel perspective. Alternatively, the CAA can pull two Northern based schools (Fairfield and Albany, for example) and push Towson and Delaware South. This likely would not appease Delaware or Towson but much like a move in the South, it would make travel easier for the other divisional members. This move is super unlikely.
So you will see the CAA, choose from the following, in order, IMHO:
1. Stand pat at 14 for at least 2-3 years or until a major DI shakeup occurs, whichever is sooner;
2. Howard says yes, and then add a North school (Albany or Fairfield);
3. Are tired of Howard, adds a Southern football school (Central or Norfolk St) and a North school (Albany or Fairfield).
4. Are tired of Howard, wants football and all-sports to go to 16, adds a football affiliate and, for all sports, adds a team from the North and from the South that are not football based or already have football in the league (Albany).
5. Stand pat at 14 (as above) and add a football affiliate, if they really want to two divisions at 16.
