P5 realignment by 2025, overview
Ok, so reading so much of articles out there in the internet, and posts here there and everywhere in social media, and of course various people's opinions on this board, here's what I think is most likely by 2025.
I think there will be some movement among the P5, but not a lot, and while content is king in the new streaming era, we're also seeing that cable, and broadcast tv & radio are far from dead. So it's not looking like the media companies are pushing for super conferences. the prices are just getting into nosebleed prices. If anything, I think 10-20 years from now I think we may see conference splits into smaller regional conferences with inter-conference scheduling. But that's beyond the scope of this post.
I think on the near term, the focus for realignment is going to be more about moves to ensure more stability, money potentials, cultural/institutional fit, and regional rivalries.
As for GoRs, I think everyone is waiting to see how TX and OK address that with the B12, the same as when they waited to see how the situation with Maryland would end up. So I'm not taking GoRs into account, except that I think that they also will slow movement a bit - I think there's only so much that schools and conferences want to deal with.
I think most agree that if there is any movement in the P5 on the near term, it will likely be done by the B10 and SEC raiding the B12 and ACC.
Missouri really seems the only possible outlier in that they "could" join the B10. I really think we'll only see movement along those lines in the near term depending on how unhappy they are with being in the same conference/division with texas. I'd group tamu with them being as, or even more, unhappy about it (they apparently leaked the story after all), remembering that both schools left the B12, but I think tamu has several long-term regional rivalries which can help them decide to stay in the SEC. Missouri, not-so-much. So we'll see. If any movement happens it'll likely be after TX joins the SEC.
So starting with the ACC then, for all the talk about it, I don't think the NC cluster of schools is leaving the ACC. So that stops that set of dominoes.
I also think ND is likely fine where it is in the ACC. They get old big east rivals, as well as basketball bluebloods all while being able to maintain the appearance of football independence and the ability to have their own football media contract. B10 is very unlikely to offer that, and though the new big east could be possible, I think ND will stay with the ACC unless it really falls apart.
I think the "unstable" part of the conference is FL state and Clemson. They've made it clear they want to go to the SEC. And if FL state goes, there is a possibility that Miami could also get an invite to the SEC, to bring the Florida Cup in-conference.
Virginia really seems the only other "possible". The B10 might take VA as a partner to KS from the B12. Especially if Missouri is not on the table. But the B10 has been fine with staying at odd membership before (11 with Penn state). and VA doesn't seem to be pushing for this.
So let's say that once the TX/OK is resolved, B10 takes Kansas.
And the SEC takes 3 schools from the ACC - Clemson, Florida state, and Miami.
This drops the ACC to 12 (11 plus ND). I think they'll add 4 to go to 16, focusing on getting the schools east of the Mississippi river - ACC adds UCF, USF, Cinn, WVA. This keeps their florida presence, and beefs up the old big east rivalries. Going forward, this gives the conference greater stability and it's unlikely anyone else leaves unless the conference falls apart.
So due to the above B12 lost KS, UCF, Cinn, and WVA. This removes the B12 from east of the Mississippi river, and takes some options off the table, and so makes the choice easier to accept more western schools. So B12 adds Boise state, Memphis, SMU, and Rice. Rice is an easy 4th choice, Even though it doesn't bring a new media area, it is a former SWC member, and has regional rivalries with several members already. And when you think about it, is also, sort of the vanderbilt of the situation - academics, etc. SMU and Rice bring regional rivals, institutional fit and stability. Boise state is likely to never get a PAC invite, and joining the B12 is presumably better than staying in the MWC. I know that there are those who see Colorado state as a good fit due to geographically linking BYU with the rest of the B12. But I don't think that's enough for them to get an invite. And besides, I don't think that Colorado state is leaving their regional rivals in the MWC for the new B12.
I think at this point, with the B10 at 15 and SEC at 19, Missouri might well make the move to the B10. But I think it would need to be handled carefully. And I don't think they'd be interested in too much of an intermediate pay cut, even if they gain more down the line. So for regional rivalries and possibly due to inter- and intra- conference politics, I do think it's possible that Missouri might well go to the B10. But not likely (yet).
So after all the moves:
Big 10: - 15
gains Kansas
SEC: - 19
gains Clemson, Florida state, and Miami
ACC: - 16
Boston College
Syracuse
Pittsburgh
West Virginia
Louisville
Cincinnati
Notre Dame (partial football)
Virginia
Virginia Tech
North Carolina
North Carolina state
Duke
Wake Forest
Georgia Tech
UCF
USF
Big 12: - 12 (6 in texas)
Iowa state
Kansas state
Memphis
Oklahoma state
Boise state
BYU
TCU
SMU
Baylor
Houston
Rice
Texas Tech
I think these all look pretty stable, and if this were to happen, unless/until something rather dramatic (and unlikely) happens (like ohio state, NC, or USC), I think this would pretty much end P5 realignment for the near future.
What do you all think?
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