https://twitter.com/ScottyGZone/status/1...09224%2F17

https://twitter.com/TimBrando/status/153...id18300204

Between the two you'd have equal or better contract upside for the new Big 12 to begin with BEFORE a 15-20MM devaluation with SC and UCLA leaving.

If these projections are accurate or even just semi-close it puts a raid out of reach.

As for if they can raid the PAC, probably depends on UW, Oregon, Stanford possibly being later additions to the B1G.

Thank you for posting this. Maybe it will end the wild speculation about the PAC being able to raid the Big12.

Projections are just projections.

Perhaps a proactive ACC swoops in. Doubtful, but ehh... Dan Wolken mentioned this a few times the past 24 hours.

Just reposting the twitter links with BBCode

(07-01-2022 04:07 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  Projections are just projections.

The same can be said about your posts about the Big XII being a so-called "rump" conference. Last I checked, it was the Pac-12 that lost two schools that were located in one of the top two media markets, not the Big XII. Plus, Oregon and Washington have applied to join the Big 10 so...the Big XII is actually in a position of strength right now, not the other way around.

Please think before you post next time. You'll be a lot better off.

If the projected money for the PAC was going to be 1/2 the B1G payout of $100 million then it was going to be $50 million.

That knocks the PAC payout down to $30 million but still better than the 20-22 million they were talking about the XII getting.

There is also the possibility the PAC doesn't expand and keeps everyone on a 10 way revenue split.

(07-01-2022 04:12 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  If the projected money for the PAC was going to be 1/2 the B1G payout of $100 million then it was going to be $50 million.

That knocks the PAC payout down to $30 million but still better than the 20-22 million they were talking about the XII getting.

There is also the possibility the PAC doesn't expand and keeps everyone on a 10 way revenue split.

Scott Garrard says otherwise, and he's a trusted source. You, on the other hand, are just like me, a college sports fan opining on the events of the past 36 hours and trying to play NCAA FBS Nostradamus.

I'll trust Scott Garrard's on this one. Maybe next time, eh? (Nope.)

(07-01-2022 04:16 PM)GeminiCoog Wrote:  

(07-01-2022 04:12 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  If the projected money for the PAC was going to be 1/2 the B1G payout of $100 million then it was going to be $50 million.

That knocks the PAC payout down to $30 million but still better than the 20-22 million they were talking about the XII getting.

There is also the possibility the PAC doesn't expand and keeps everyone on a 10 way revenue split.

Scott Garrard says otherwise, and he's a trusted source. You, on the other hand, are just like me, a college sports fan opining on the events of the past 36 hours and trying to play NCAA FBS Nostradamus.

I'll trust Scott Garrard's on this one. Maybe next time, eh? (Nope.)

You are on here because you are concerned about getting left behind.

Soon enough you'll be playing in a conference with Tulane again.

15-20 million per team is a death knell. I'd consider defecting fast if I'm any of those remaining schools.

Missing info in that “projection”. Is it pre- or post-2024? Also, it does not include any media gains that a 5-team CTZ wing might add.

(07-01-2022 04:17 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  

(07-01-2022 04:16 PM)GeminiCoog Wrote:  

(07-01-2022 04:12 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  If the projected money for the PAC was going to be 1/2 the B1G payout of $100 million then it was going to be $50 million.

That knocks the PAC payout down to $30 million but still better than the 20-22 million they were talking about the XII getting.

There is also the possibility the PAC doesn't expand and keeps everyone on a 10 way revenue split.

Scott Garrard says otherwise, and he's a trusted source. You, on the other hand, are just like me, a college sports fan opining on the events of the past 36 hours and trying to play NCAA FBS Nostradamus.

I'll trust Scott Garrard's on this one. Maybe next time, eh? (Nope.)

You are on here because you are concerned about getting left behind.

Soon enough you'll be playing in a conference with Tulane again.

(07-01-2022 04:23 PM)Crayton Wrote:  Missing info in that “projection”. Is it pre- or post-2024? Also, it does not include any media gains that a 5-team CTZ wing might add.

Also if BYU and Baylor provide most of the projected value on the new XII contract then that could be who the PAC would target.

New XII contract comes in at 12-15 mil per school if that were to happen.

The media rights landscape has been too shaken up by USC/UCLA to the B1G to make any informed projections. The fact is, the new media rights deal will be determined by the moves that are made, so why are we concerned about present valuations? They aren't reasonable approximations now that there has been a seismic change.

The Pac has institutional alignment. They are peer universities. The Big XII does not have institutional alignment. Schools like Kansas, Oklahoma State, and Iowa State would kill to be in the same club as Stanford, Cal, and Washington. Conversely, Stanford, Cal, and Washington have no interest in being in a club with Baylor or BYU. That is where the leverage comes from.

(07-01-2022 04:27 PM)OhioBoilermaker Wrote:  The media rights landscape has been too shaken up by USC/UCLA to the B1G to make any informed projections. The fact is, the new media rights deal will be determined by the moves that are made, so why are we concerned about present valuations? They aren't reasonable approximations now that there has been a seismic change.

The Pac has institutional alignment. They are peer universities. The Big XII does not have institutional alignment. Schools like Kansas, Oklahoma State, and Iowa State would kill to be in the same club as Stanford, Cal, and Washington. Conversely, Stanford, Cal, and Washington have no interest in being in a club with Baylor or BYU. That is where the leverage comes from.

The only rumor we have so far is XII should/could be aggressive and get CU, Utah, AZ and Arizona St. Which is not really a legit rumor because no way that happens.

The only way anyone in the PAC would go XII is if the media number in the XII was going to be 25-30 million higher which is not happening. Money would be better in a 16 team PAC than a 16 team XII.

(07-01-2022 04:25 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  

(07-01-2022 04:23 PM)Crayton Wrote:  Missing info in that “projection”. Is it pre- or post-2024? Also, it does not include any media gains that a 5-team CTZ wing might add.

Also if BYU and Baylor provide most of the projected value on the new XII contract then that could be who the PAC would target.

New XII contract comes in at 12-15 mil per school if that were to happen.

I'm really confused by Baylor driving the Big12 value. Am I wrong that they're a small private kinda out in the middle of nowhere? I know they've managed to stay in power conferences forever but they don't feel like a big team to me. They've had a nice decade but I don't think of them as having a winning tradition that would be a fanbase. What am I missing? Why are they valuable?

(07-01-2022 04:20 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  15-20 million per team is a death knell. I'd consider defecting fast if I'm any of those remaining schools.

To where? I doubt the Big 12 TV deal ends up much better than the PAC deal, or vice versa. Both conferences lost their mega programs who can anchor an OTA TV deal, and now only generate midlevel filler games.

(07-01-2022 04:33 PM)Hootyhoo Wrote:  

(07-01-2022 04:25 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  

(07-01-2022 04:23 PM)Crayton Wrote:  Missing info in that “projection”. Is it pre- or post-2024? Also, it does not include any media gains that a 5-team CTZ wing might add.

Also if BYU and Baylor provide most of the projected value on the new XII contract then that could be who the PAC would target.

New XII contract comes in at 12-15 mil per school if that were to happen.

I'm really confused by Baylor driving the Big12 value. Am I wrong that they're a small private kinda out in the middle of nowhere? I know they've managed to stay in power conferences forever but they don't feel like a big team to me. They've had a nice decade but I don't think of them as having a winning tradition that would be a fanbase. What am I missing? Why are they valuable?

Its not that they are valuable in so much nothing else in the XII is worth anything.

TT, Houston and OSU may want to stay married to Baylor. Thinking they've got a rump of potential.

PAC can go out and get into the metroplex with TCU/SMU.

Arizona’s 247 site (Wildcat Authority) is already prepping its fan base for a move to the Big 12.

Arizona to the Big 12 makes sense:
https://247sports.com/college/arizona/Ar...189538433/

Quote:Even if Washington and Oregon stay in the new Pac-12 or whatever it might be called, the financial hit from losing the Los Angeles schools makes it worth it for Arizona to leave the conference regardless.