(07-06-2022 04:42 PM)UpStreamRedTeam Wrote:  

(07-06-2022 04:00 PM)Huan Wrote:  

(07-06-2022 03:55 PM)UpStreamRedTeam Wrote:  

(07-06-2022 02:16 PM)Huan Wrote:  

(07-06-2022 02:09 PM)GTFletch Wrote:  Pac-12 rallies behind scenes

3. Any potential university (Boise State, Fresno State, San Diego State, etc.) that might be added to the Pac-12 needs to bring more than $30 million in annual media revenue value (or take a steep discount) for the numbers to work. Notre Dame, for example, works. It’s why the Big Ten is so busy chasing the Irish. Boise State? Probably not, unless it takes a deeply discounted cut. There are only 517,000 television homes in Idaho. Currently, Boise State is getting $4 million a year from CBS and FS1 as part of their contract with the Mountain West Conference. “They probably deserve more than that for what they bring to the MWC,” Thompson said, “but I’d have a hard time ascribing much more than $8 million if they were to join the Pac-12.”

https://www.johncanzano.com/p/canzano-or...wish?sd=pf

LOL.
Just curious as to what program available fits this standard.

If they can still get $30M per school at 10 schools, why do they need to add schools at all? I don't see the B12 getting that much without Texas and OU, so if you accept that the B1G and SEC are just on a different level financially, what difference would it make to them?

the PAC has authorized evaluation for expansion, with the bar set at #30M. who are they looking to get?

I have no inside knowledge whatsoever, but I would guess they would look at Baylor, Texas Tech, Kansas and OSU, and maybe Houston and BYU. They had the same opportunity last summer, except they were working from a much better position and decided not to move forward. If the bar over the summer was $42M, but is no down to $30M maybe those teams I mentioned fall into that category now, but who knows.

1. I don’t think any big xii school values at $30M
2. The media deal for the nPac is estimated at $30M. Which match the threshold for expansion candidates. The pac 12 will take a hit financially and cannot afford to, at least not yet, to subsidize expansion candidates.
3. Current big 12 school can only move to pac if they can recuperate their big 12 exit fee ($80M?) in doing so. Any team at $30M value or higher would lose money going to the pac. Any team at $20M value or less could make money by moving but would cost the pac $. Teams at $20-30M would likely lose money and cost the pac.
4. No nBig 12 schools is worth $30M

(07-06-2022 04:50 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  I don’t know what’s the greatest part of this thread - RUScarlets claiming the guy who broke the USC/UCLA news shouldn’t be taken seriously or DavidSt calling the former Fox Sports President an idiot who doesn’t know how to value schools like Boise St.

Well, the guy only counted the tv sets in the city of Boise, and not the whole state and neighboring states which is over 1 million to close to 2 million sets. That is not counting the National appeal for the school.

(07-06-2022 03:46 PM)solohawks Wrote:  

(07-06-2022 03:38 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  

(07-06-2022 03:31 PM)solohawks Wrote:  If find it very surprising there has been NOTHING on Stanford and Cal and where their heads are at.

Since the geography barrier has been broken, it wouldn't surprise me in the least if the ACC scooped up Cal and Stanford to mimic the Big 10 model. If ESPN is willing to make it worthwhile that would be a move the ACC could make to increase revenue

Only works if ND came in. Still, that's three additional schools. Would they have a go at it with 17 or is their another school out there that can pull in revenue for 18?

I'm thinking if you add Cal and Stanford you can guarantee Notre Dame still has 2 CA games a year and can end the season in CA like they want to do. If you do that you can up the ND commitment from 5 to 7 games a year. Not forcing full membership is a carrot the ACC will offer that the Big 10 won't. Getting into CA plus a guarantee of 1 more ACC controlled Notre Dame game won't equal Big 10 money put gets them closer to where they would be if they stood still.

I'm sure ND and USC will both want to continue their long term series, but its highly unlikely the Big 10 will allow it to be a late season game. If anything it will become a September game. The ACC helping solve the Big 10's looming California problem is something they can offer a Notre Dame that wants to maintain independence.

Playing 2 games against California schools and ending the season in California are not critical to Notre Dame. What matters is playing Southern Cal every year. Period. That is their one and only rivalry. And Cal and Stanford aren't becoming a tiny island in the ACC for the small amount of additional revenue they may get for moving.

1st thing Pac has to do is get Network fixed
at 300 million, conf gets cut of that to run office.
that leaves schools with 27

Preliminary est for B-12 million is 30 million per school. [360 total]
5 B-12 schools [TexT, OSU, Kansas, ISU, Hous]
would need 162 million for 27 per school plus conf cut. [44% of total]

SDST is making 3.5, there worth 10-15 million playing PAC sch
start with reduced figure, over time make up ground

(07-06-2022 04:36 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(07-06-2022 02:09 PM)GTFletch Wrote:  Pac-12 rallies behind scenes

1. Arizona, ASU, Utah and Colorado were reported late last week to be leaning into a possible contingency escape to the Big 12 themselves, but I’m told by a high-ranking official at one of those universities to pump the brakes on that speculation. “There is no meeting on the books for us with the Big 12,” the source said, “and George is kicking ass.”

2. Former Fox Sports Network president Bob Thompson told me last week that he estimated the Pac-12’s next media rights contract would command $500 million a year before the defection. With the Los Angeles’ television market gone, Thompson says the Pac-12’s media value is reduced to $300 million a year. That appears to be a 40-percent wholesale discount. But it pencils out to a 28 percent reduction, per university, given that the $300 million would now be split only 10 ways ($30 million each) vs. $500 million being split 12 ways ($41.6 million each).


3. Any potential university (Boise State, Fresno State, San Diego State, etc.) that might be added to the Pac-12 needs to bring more than $30 million in annual media revenue value (or take a steep discount) for the numbers to work. Notre Dame, for example, works. It’s why the Big Ten is so busy chasing the Irish. Boise State? Probably not, unless it takes a deeply discounted cut. There are only 517,000 television homes in Idaho. Currently, Boise State is getting $4 million a year from CBS and FS1 as part of their contract with the Mountain West Conference. “They probably deserve more than that for what they bring to the MWC,” Thompson said, “but I’d have a hard time ascribing much more than $8 million if they were to join the Pac-12.”

4. Pac-12 issued a statement on Tuesday morning, indicating that its board had authorized the conference to “immediately” begin negotiations for the next media rights agreement. Sounds like the Pac-12 already has a media partner (ESPN? Apple?) and is ready to move forward with a new plan. My hunch is the Pac-12 accelerated the negotiation because it has some specific additional conference additions (from the Big 12? ACC?) in mind.


5. Oregon Gov. Kate Brown may throw a wrinkle into the UO plans. There’s been some speculation that she might step in and attempt to force the Ducks to stay in lockstep with Oregon State. Some lawmakers in Washington have indicated they’d do the same on Washington State’s behalf.


6. A source at UCLA told me that the discussions with the Big Ten got intense about eight weeks ago. Also, I’m told that USC and UCLA didn’t communicate with each other about their Pac-12 departures until “the 11th hour” when Bruins’ AD Martin Jarmond and Trojans’ AD Mike Bohn got on the phone together. Said one source, “I can’t believe this didn’t get leaked.”



https://www.johncanzano.com/p/canzano-or...wish?sd=pf

Number 2, Bob Thompson do not know the Boise's tv market which is 1 million at least which over 700,000 is in the metro of Boise, and they do get more viewers nationally. This guy is a complete idiot who under value schools way too much.

Your Boise hype is almost maniacal.

(07-06-2022 04:20 PM)Crayton Wrote:  The $30M number is really just a starting point for the remaining Pac-10. I don’t think it is a commitment to stay at 10. Access to certain markets (Texas, SoCal) have additional value. SDSU may not be worth $30M in the MW, but may in the Pac-12.

I don’t think the $30 is a “real” number either. Networks have had little time to sit down with the conference brass and go over financials. Payouts may end up being $45M… if the “right” schools are added.

BYU adds the most value of any “available” team. Just unsure if the power dynamic allows for an invitation to go their way. Pac-10 may be in a beggars rather than choosers situation.

The PAC-ACC TV umbrella should be at least 50 million per.

KU and OSU I'm sure would want a piece of that.

(07-06-2022 04:30 PM)GreenFreakUAB Wrote:  ...I guess my only question is why would a current 'P5' school move from another conference into the PAC, unless there's a LOT better media deal in the works we aren't aware, of, like TRIPLE the income what they have now... without USC/UCLA, not sure how they even 'hold steady' with their current income levels...

I mean, just a few months ago the reports of the PAC-networks were a total failure and about to be killed off... what would change with no new teams and minus the top program (USC) and at least a top 3rd of the conference program (UCLA)?

The PAC networks are a total failure, and will be killed off. But that's going to INCREASE the PAC's value (somewhat.) Right now, the PAC networks are such a failure that the games committed to the P12N's might as well not be televised. In a couple of years, the PAC will be streaming those games on Apple+ or Peacock or ESPN+ or wherever and getting SOME money for them--definitely more than the $2-3M a school profit that the P12N is producing. Those games might still have nobody watching, but some streamer will pay the PAC money for them.

Not to mention, some of the games that are hidden on the P12N might be of interest to ESPN or FS1.

(07-06-2022 05:29 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(07-06-2022 03:46 PM)solohawks Wrote:  

(07-06-2022 03:38 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  

(07-06-2022 03:31 PM)solohawks Wrote:  If find it very surprising there has been NOTHING on Stanford and Cal and where their heads are at.

Since the geography barrier has been broken, it wouldn't surprise me in the least if the ACC scooped up Cal and Stanford to mimic the Big 10 model. If ESPN is willing to make it worthwhile that would be a move the ACC could make to increase revenue

Only works if ND came in. Still, that's three additional schools. Would they have a go at it with 17 or is their another school out there that can pull in revenue for 18?

I'm thinking if you add Cal and Stanford you can guarantee Notre Dame still has 2 CA games a year and can end the season in CA like they want to do. If you do that you can up the ND commitment from 5 to 7 games a year. Not forcing full membership is a carrot the ACC will offer that the Big 10 won't. Getting into CA plus a guarantee of 1 more ACC controlled Notre Dame game won't equal Big 10 money put gets them closer to where they would be if they stood still.

I'm sure ND and USC will both want to continue their long term series, but its highly unlikely the Big 10 will allow it to be a late season game. If anything it will become a September game. The ACC helping solve the Big 10's looming California problem is something they can offer a Notre Dame that wants to maintain independence.

Playing 2 games against California schools and ending the season in California are not critical to Notre Dame. What matters is playing Southern Cal every year. Period. That is their one and only rivalry. And Cal and Stanford aren't becoming a tiny island in the ACC for the small amount of additional revenue they may get for moving.

Oh I agree. But the only way that will be possible outside of early season is to join the Big 10. Can Notre Dame get out of the GOR?

(07-06-2022 05:56 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(07-06-2022 04:30 PM)GreenFreakUAB Wrote:  ...I guess my only question is why would a current 'P5' school move from another conference into the PAC, unless there's a LOT better media deal in the works we aren't aware, of, like TRIPLE the income what they have now... without USC/UCLA, not sure how they even 'hold steady' with their current income levels...

I mean, just a few months ago the reports of the PAC-networks were a total failure and about to be killed off... what would change with no new teams and minus the top program (USC) and at least a top 3rd of the conference program (UCLA)?

The PAC networks are a total failure, and will be killed off. But that's going to INCREASE the PAC's value (somewhat.) Right now, the PAC networks are such a failure that the games committed to the P12N's might as well not be televised. In a couple of years, the PAC will be streaming those games on Apple+ or Peacock or ESPN+ or wherever and getting SOME money for them--definitely more than the $2-3M a school profit that the P12N is producing. Those games might still have nobody watching, but some streamer will pay the PAC money for them.

Not to mention, some of the games that are hidden on the P12N might be of interest to ESPN or FS1.

If the current Pac 10 goes to AppleTV+ they could have less people than watch the Pac 10 Network watching games. Seems like folks get AppleTV+ for Ted Lasso then cancel when the season ends.

(07-06-2022 06:31 PM)Section 200 Wrote:  

(07-06-2022 05:56 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(07-06-2022 04:30 PM)GreenFreakUAB Wrote:  ...I guess my only question is why would a current 'P5' school move from another conference into the PAC, unless there's a LOT better media deal in the works we aren't aware, of, like TRIPLE the income what they have now... without USC/UCLA, not sure how they even 'hold steady' with their current income levels...

I mean, just a few months ago the reports of the PAC-networks were a total failure and about to be killed off... what would change with no new teams and minus the top program (USC) and at least a top 3rd of the conference program (UCLA)?

The PAC networks are a total failure, and will be killed off. But that's going to INCREASE the PAC's value (somewhat.) Right now, the PAC networks are such a failure that the games committed to the P12N's might as well not be televised. In a couple of years, the PAC will be streaming those games on Apple+ or Peacock or ESPN+ or wherever and getting SOME money for them--definitely more than the $2-3M a school profit that the P12N is producing. Those games might still have nobody watching, but some streamer will pay the PAC money for them.

Not to mention, some of the games that are hidden on the P12N might be of interest to ESPN or FS1.

If the current Pac 10 goes to AppleTV+ they could have less people than watch the Pac 10 Network watching games. Seems like folks get AppleTV+ for Ted Lasso then cancel when the season ends.

no one's watching those games anyway. better to at least get paid for them.

I think it's a mistake for them to try to stay together and really hope Utah, Colorado, Arizona and ASU move to the Big12. Stanford and Cal are a bit of a cancer when it comes to expanding the Conference/helping it survive.

I’m curious what the “Middle 3” leagues will do.

If they all stand pat, they are all accepting 2nd tier status. if one can raid one of the others, increase their tv value and close the gap with the Big 2 that would be good for them. I just don’t know if anyone has enough pull to make that happen.

(07-06-2022 03:23 PM)Tigerblud Wrote:  Just do what the Big 12 is doing where it takes so many years to reach full revenue. Boise state would still draw eyeballs. I would think you at least want SDSU to have access to Southern California and SMU.

Hear me out: what if they add Hawai’i for FB-only, and then have an 8 game conference schedule like the B1G did when it had 11 schools after adding Penn State? You’d create the ability for the 4 conference schools that play at Hawai’i in a given year to schedule a 13th game under the NCAA rules. Those 4 schools could then schedule a 5th non-conference game of the year, ideally with upper-echelon ACC and Big XII schools. That in turn would create additional value for the TV inventory.

(07-06-2022 02:33 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  

(07-06-2022 02:09 PM)GTFletch Wrote:  6. A source at UCLA told me that the discussions with the Big Ten got intense about eight weeks ago. Also, I’m told that USC and UCLA didn’t communicate with each other about their Pac-12 departures until “the 11th hour” when Bruins’ AD Martin Jarmond and Trojans’ AD Mike Bohn got on the phone together. Said one source, “I can’t believe this didn’t get leaked.”

For something this monumental to not be leaked until 5 hours before it was official is absolutely stunning.

It would be interesting to know who the B1G was talking to. Did they ask Notre Dame what it would take to get them, and they jokingly said USC knowing it would never happen.

Would USC or UCLA have been interested in going solo? That island would be like Alcatraz. Was that when they suggested that USC and UCLA get together?

Or had there also been discussion with Cal and Stanford and Oregon and Washington? If Washington and Oregon did make an application was it totally based on hearing news reports? Maybe there had been some preliminary discussion, but it got bogged down in concern about WSU and OSU; and then when the news broke they decided they better jump.

(07-06-2022 02:09 PM)GTFletch Wrote:  Pac-12 rallies behind scenes

Arizona, ASU, Utah and Colorado were reported late last week to be leaning into a possible contingency escape to the Big 12 themselves, but I’m told by a high-ranking official at one of those universities to pump the brakes on that speculation. “There is no meeting on the books for us with the Big 12,” the source said, “and George is kicking ass."


https://www.johncanzano.com/p/canzano-or...wish?sd=pf

George is kicking ass.