My take:

WEST
Utah, BYU, ASU, Arizona, Washington, Oregon, Colorado, TTU, TCU

EAST
UCF, WVU, CINCY, ISU, KSU, Kansas, OSU, Houston, Baylor

Granted this is all gonna come down to what money ESPN offers the PAC

(07-18-2022 08:58 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  Shouldn't be surprise to anyone. Combing leagues does not automatically equate to increasing revenues. The only way a partnership could have possibly made sense is if the top brands from each league consolidated and banded together:

Arizona
California
Colorado
Oregon
Stanford
Washington
(Leaves out Arizona State, Oregon State, Utah and Washington State)

Baylor
BYU
Kansas
Oklahoma State
TCU
Texas Tech
(Leaves out Cincinnati, Iowa State, Kansas State, Houston, UCF and West Virginia)

The thing is that Utah and Arizona State are worth more than those Big 12 schools listed, too. That has continued to be the dilemma for me in all of this analysis over the past 3 weeks. Between the Pac-12 and Big 12, it’s the Pac-12 that has the most brands of value. It doesn’t mean that they’re better football teams, but in terms of value in conference realignment, the Pac-12’s schools are all desirable at some level except for maybe Washington State and Oregon State. Yet, the Big 12 PR seems to be working a lot better as now. We’ll see how it is once it’s clear that the Big Ten isn’t expanding further (which de facto will be when it finalizes its new TV deal).

(07-18-2022 08:40 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(07-18-2022 08:25 PM)BeatWestern! Wrote:  Pete Thamel of ESPN with the latest conference realignment news.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/st...cially-end

This would seem to open the door for the Arizona schools as well as Utah and CU to potentially join the Big 12.

So neither a "partnership" nor a merger seems likely.

The Big XII commissioner seems to be signaling a strong interest in adding some teams, and he seems to be suggesting that he's in contact with some of the PAC schools.

On the other hand, he doesn't seem to be signaling that it's likely that any PAC schools will join the Big XII - - just that it may be a possibility.

This Big XII commissioner seems to give one the impression that he isn't likely to rest until he's the commissioner of a Big XVI - - whatever it takes.

If the Big XII can't poach any of the PAC schools, it seems unlikely that the commissioner will be content to stay put with 12 schools. The Big XII has clearly signaled that they are ready to make a significant move, and I would expect them to invite the four best available G5 schools to join the Big XII within a year in that case, if not sooner.

.

Literally the first thing he said was that it had to add value. There aren’t 4 G5’s likely to add value. Seems like it’s either adding Pac12 schools or both conferences simply soldier on as they are.

(07-18-2022 08:58 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  Shouldn't be surprise to anyone. Combing leagues does not automatically equate to increasing revenues. The only way a partnership could have possibly made sense is if the top brands from each league consolidated and banded together:

Arizona
California
Colorado
Oregon
Stanford
Washington
(Leaves out Arizona State, Oregon State, Utah and Washington State)

Baylor
BYU
Kansas
Oklahoma State
TCU
Texas Tech
(Leaves out Cincinnati, Iowa State, Kansas State, Houston, UCF and West Virginia)

They won't leave out Utah, would be the perfect travel partner for BYU and they're arguably the best team in the PAC.

(07-18-2022 09:34 PM)Tmac13 Wrote:  

(07-18-2022 09:28 PM)cc22 Wrote:  

(07-18-2022 08:40 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(07-18-2022 08:25 PM)BeatWestern! Wrote:  Pete Thamel of ESPN with the latest conference realignment news.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/st...cially-end

This would seem to open the door for the Arizona schools as well as Utah and CU to potentially join the Big 12.

So neither a "partnership" nor a merger seems likely.

The Big XII commissioner seems to be signaling a strong interest in adding some teams, and he seems to be suggesting that he's in contact with some of the PAC schools.

On the other hand, he doesn't seem to be signaling that it's likely that any PAC schools will join the Big XII - - just that it may be a possibility.

This Big XII commissioner seems to give one the impression that he isn't likely to rest until he's the commissioner of a Big XVI - - whatever it takes.

If the Big XII can't poach any of the PAC schools, it seems unlikely that the commissioner will be content to stay put with 12 schools. The Big XII has clearly signaled that they are ready to make a significant move, and I would expect them to invite the four best available G5 schools to join the Big XII within a year in that case, if not sooner.

.

Nope. That ship sailed.

Why?

The Big 12 has only ever, ever acted in a way that meant more money. Yormark echoed that during media days. If there's debate on whether the corner 4 add anything to the Big 12 package (including three state flagships as well as Arizona State with approximately 784,000 undergrads), there's still no combination of G5's left that can rival that. Boise, SMU, Memphis, USF.....those four are not going to add actual dollars in the bank that make sure the number crunchers in Morgantown or Manhattan see more green at the end of the day.

The Big 12 only added G5's when they had no other choice, and they only added four because they were headed into a new contract. They won't add any G5's short of a situation where they have no other options.

Possible P5 vs. G5 expansion teams - ROUND TWO, BIG XII:

Final 2021 Massey Composite Football Rankings

P5 "four corners:".....top four G5:

#15 Utah....................#26 San Diego St.
#49 Arizona St.............#33 Boise St.
#95 Colorado...............#48 SMU
#117 Arizona...............#77 Memphis


Final 2022 Massey Composite Basketball Rankings

P5 "four corners:".....top four G5:

#3 Arizona..................#24 Memphis
#63 Colorado...............#28 San Diego St.
#91 Arizona St.............#37 Boise St.
#136 Utah...................#51 SMU

.

(07-18-2022 09:39 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(07-18-2022 08:58 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  Shouldn't be surprise to anyone. Combing leagues does not automatically equate to increasing revenues. The only way a partnership could have possibly made sense is if the top brands from each league consolidated and banded together:

Arizona
California
Colorado
Oregon
Stanford
Washington
(Leaves out Arizona State, Oregon State, Utah and Washington State)

Baylor
BYU
Kansas
Oklahoma State
TCU
Texas Tech
(Leaves out Cincinnati, Iowa State, Kansas State, Houston, UCF and West Virginia)

The thing is that Utah and Arizona State are worth more than those Big 12 schools listed, too. That has continued to be the dilemma for me in all of this analysis over the past 3 weeks. Between the Pac-12 and Big 12, it’s the Pac-12 that has the most brands of value. It doesn’t mean that they’re better football teams, but in terms of value in conference realignment, the Pac-12’s schools are all desirable at some level except for maybe Washington State and Oregon State. Yet, the Big 12 PR seems to be working a lot better as now. We’ll see how it is once it’s clear that the Big Ten isn’t expanding further (which de facto will be when it finalizes its new TV deal).

Gotta say this, no matter what happens, the conference has managed to get off the mat more than believable already.

(07-18-2022 09:18 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  The Big12 calling an end to merger talks sure doesn’t seem to support the narrative that the Pac12 is holding all the cards when it comes to realignment.

That was my thought too. Not surprising a merger doesn’t have the revenue projections necessary. I don’t think either league will poach each other either. Just not enough of a revenue gradient. I am surprised some sort of scheduling agreement has been ruled out though.

(07-18-2022 09:38 PM)Utgrizfan Wrote:  My take:

WEST
Utah, BYU, ASU, Arizona, Washington, Oregon, Colorado, TTU, TCU

EAST
UCF, WVU, CINCY, ISU, KSU, Kansas, OSU, Houston, Baylor

Granted this is all gonna come down to what money ESPN offers the PAC

I think if the Big 12 adds the four corner schools you have a pretty easy 4 pod setup.

Utah, BYU, Arizona, Arizona St
Colorado, Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State
Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas Tech, Baylor
Houston, UCF, Cinci, WVU

You could also put Houston with the Texas Schools, OSU with CU, KU and KSU, and ISU with the three eastern schools.

.

AVERAGE 2021/22 Final Massey Composite Football & Basketball Rankings:

#60 Arizona.................#27 San Diego St.
#65 Arizona St.............#35 Boise St.
#75.5 Utah..................#49.5 SMU
#79 Colorado...............#50.5 Memphis


QUESTION: STRICTLY IN TERMS OF TEAM RANKINGS WOULD THE BIG 12 BE BETTER OFF ADDING THE FOUR PAC OR THE FOUR G5 SCHOOLS?

I think this confirms the Big 12 have the upper hand.

(07-18-2022 09:48 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  .

AVERAGE 2021/22 Final Massey Composite Football & Basketball Rankings:

#60 Arizona.................#27 San Diego St.
#65 Arizona St.............#35 Boise St.
#75.5 Utah..................#49.5 SMU
#79 Colorado...............#50.5 Memphis


QUESTION: STRICTLY IN TERMS OF COMPETITIVENESS (ON FIELD-RESULTS) WOULD THE BIG 12 BE BETTER OFF ADDING THE FOUR PAC OR THE FOUR G5 SCHOOLS?

No

(07-18-2022 09:18 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  The Big12 calling an end to merger talks sure doesn’t seem to support the narrative that the Pac12 is holding all the cards when it comes to realignment.

Indeed.

And the more the word “underwhelming” keeps being used in conjunction with the options being explored by the Pac-12, the more likely it feels that someone in the conference will eventually break ranks.

Could be an interesting week. If anyone is serious about leaving there’s less reason now to keep putting off the decision.

On the other hand if there are no defections in the next couple of weeks despite the Big-12 and ACC merger/partnership options not panning out, I think it’s pretty much a sure bet the Pac-12 will stick together.

Crazy times, and no doubt nerve-wracking for potential left-behinds.

(07-18-2022 09:49 PM)HERDDDDD Wrote:  I think this confirms the Big 12 have the upper hand.

Or that the Pac 10 plans to stick together with ESPN.

(07-18-2022 09:49 PM)Owls9878 Wrote:  

(07-18-2022 09:48 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  .

AVERAGE 2021/22 Final Massey Composite Football & Basketball Rankings:

#60 Arizona.................#27 San Diego St.
#65 Arizona St.............#35 Boise St.
#75.5 Utah..................#49.5 SMU
#79 Colorado...............#50.5 Memphis


QUESTION: STRICTLY IN TERMS OF COMPETITIVENESS (ON FIELD-RESULTS) WOULD THE BIG 12 BE BETTER OFF ADDING THE FOUR PAC OR THE FOUR G5 SCHOOLS?

No

So in other words, you would predict that the lower-ranked PAC teams would defeat the more highly-ranked G5 teams?

.

Notre Dame remains Indy with either NBC or ESPN

B16 signs their Fox deal, halting any more of their own expansion

Pac 10 stick together with a new ESPN deal


These things have to happen in order.

(07-18-2022 09:53 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(07-18-2022 09:49 PM)Owls9878 Wrote:  

(07-18-2022 09:48 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  .

AVERAGE 2021/22 Final Massey Composite Football & Basketball Rankings:

#60 Arizona.................#27 San Diego St.
#65 Arizona St.............#35 Boise St.
#75.5 Utah..................#49.5 SMU
#79 Colorado...............#50.5 Memphis


QUESTION: STRICTLY IN TERMS OF COMPETITIVENESS (ON FIELD-RESULTS) WOULD THE BIG 12 BE BETTER OFF ADDING THE FOUR PAC OR THE FOUR G5 SCHOOLS?

No

So in other words, you would predict that the lower-ranked PAC teams would defeat the more highly-ranked G5 teams?

.

Happens quite a bit in bowl games and tournaments, doesn’t it?

(07-18-2022 08:25 PM)BeatWestern! Wrote:  Pete Thamel of ESPN with the latest conference realignment news.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/st...cially-end

This would seem to open the door for the Arizona schools as well as Utah and CU to potentially join the Big 12.

Really? I just read this as the two will stay apart and conduct business as usual.

(07-18-2022 09:51 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  

(07-18-2022 09:18 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  The Big12 calling an end to merger talks sure doesn’t seem to support the narrative that the Pac12 is holding all the cards when it comes to realignment.

Indeed.

And the more the word “underwhelming” keeps being used in conjunction with the options being explored by the Pac-12, the more likely it feels that someone in the conference will eventually break ranks.

Could be an interesting week. If anyone is serious about leaving there’s less reason now to keep putting off the decision.

On the other hand if there are no defections in the next couple of weeks despite the Big-12 and ACC merger/partnership options not panning out, I think it’s pretty much a sure bet the Pac-12 will stick together.

Crazy times, and no doubt nerve-wracking for potential left-behinds.

Yup. That’s the way I see it as well. I think the 4 corners schools need to decide if they want to jump to the Big12—if not—-then both conferences will likely just move forward in their current forms.