Just tossing ideas out here:

ESPN already has the SEC and ACC locked up and the PAC 10 and Big 12 rights are up for negotiation, with the PAC 10 up first.

In an effort to grab content and keep it from their competitors, would it make sense to sign the PAC 10 to an exclusive deal, push them to add 6 Big 12 schools, then push the ACC to take Cincinnati and WVU, leaving 4 schools behind and very little content for FOX/CBS/NBC to pick up to compliment their Big 10 deals—essentially sending the message that it’s fine if they want the Big 10, but that’s all they are going to get.

Yes... in short.

However, I don't think they'd be able to afford it. Fox still needs content and they'd have to split the cost with ESPN anyway. That's why it makes more sense keeping them separate for now.

But poaching down the road is inevitable. The PAC will get the upper hand the longer they stay together.

If and only if you believe you have zero shot at securing the Big 12 rights because they are holding a grudge over the Texas and OU poaching.

However, you kind of strengthen their tortious interference accusation.

(08-11-2022 07:24 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Just tossing ideas out here:

ESPN already has the SEC and ACC locked up and the PAC 10 and Big 12 rights are up for negotiation, with the PAC 10 up first.

In an effort to grab content and keep it from their competitors, would it make sense to sign the PAC 10 to an exclusive deal, push them to add 6 Big 12 schools, then push the ACC to take Cincinnati and WVU, leaving 4 schools behind and very little content for FOX/CBS/NBC to pick up to compliment their Big 10 deals—essentially sending the message that it’s fine if they want the Big 10, but that’s all they are going to get.

Could see the Pac10 expanding with 6 B-12 schools down the road if it stays together and proves it is solvent after Texas and OK leave. Won't happen until the B-12 schools divvy up the TEX/OK departure fees though. The ACC isn't expanding with anyone especially WV and Cinn until the current GOR's is over and the ACC gets picked apart by the SEC and B-10.

ESPN is not paying to move any schools. They will simply offer a price for a conference lineup & it will be up to the schools & conferences to decide if they want to pay the exit fees themselves to get to such conference & payday.

With the exit fees involved, one would think that conference payout would have to be $70M+ for a B12 team to consider paying their exit fees to move & I don’t believe they are worth anywhere near that.

ESPN would be better off keeping them separate & paying them $30M each which appears to be closer to their market value.

But I don’t think ESPN has enough time slots for both, so I think ESPN ultimately offers the PAC something like the following options since they better fit the late time slot needs :

10 teams - $300M
12 teams - $350M
14 teams - $390M

Then the PAC decides if they want to stay at 10 with each team getting $30M or expand with new teams getting 50% payouts (as only G5’s will join) & the legacy team’s payouts increasing.

The expansion price are a premium to what the new teams bring, but I believe ESPN will offer that for the combination of increase inventory & helping the PAC stabilize over the short term.

How many votes to dissolve Yormark and Co.? If ESPN can guarantee homes to 9/12 or 10/12 schools, that should do it. The ACC schools are cheap with some well below market value at the moment. ESPN can move schools over and increase the payout instead of putting out a separate bid for the Big 12. Then Fox/ESPN can split the Big 16 or Big 18 costs if they want. If you are a midwest school and can move along with your rivals, you take it. BYU would be the odd man out because the PAC won't allow them in, but they can survive as an independent.

While it amounts to similar thing, it is not ESPN saying, go add these schools for extra money. While negotiating with ESPN (or others), the PAC would ask about how different combinations would effect the conference. They may not even get a completely straight answer on that, but they would have to be given a sense. If ESPN directly tried to destabilize other conferences rather than be a 3rd party, they would be directly able to be sued.

Now, it is possible the PAC-12 is worth more per schools with some additions (although I doubt it would be huge and ESPN would have to be offering more than the PAC-12 thought anyone else would). It is also possible that West Virginia and Cincinnati are worth more than what the ACC is currently averaging. I personally doubt both though so see both as unlikely at the moment. While a combined PAC-Big 12 is some fashion is probably moderately more profitable, I don't think it will cross the barrier of being worth the exit fee and moving challenges for anyone in either side.

ESPN already made an offer for the pac in the range of $250 mil in the exclusive window period; fox declined to bid. With cbs and nbc committed to the B1G for $350 mil each it seems unlikely they will bid at all. I don’t see ESPN offering more than $300 mil to the pac. This will not be nearly enough for b12 programs to jump.


I don’t understand the talks of conference members voting to dissolve whether it be b12, p10 or ACC. Seems fantastical and absurd.

(08-11-2022 08:34 AM)Huan Wrote:  ESPN already made an offer for the pac in the range of $250 mil in the exclusive window period; fox declined to bid. With cbs and nbc committed to the B1G for $350 mil each it seems unlikely they will bid at all. I don’t see ESPN offering more than $300 mil to the pac. This will not be nearly enough for b12 programs to jump.


I don’t understand the talks of conference members voting to dissolve whether it be b12, p10 or ACC. Seems fantastical and absurd.

Absolutely

No

(08-11-2022 08:34 AM)Huan Wrote:  ESPN already made an offer for the pac in the range of $250 mil in the exclusive window period; fox declined to bid. With cbs and nbc committed to the B1G for $350 mil each it seems unlikely they will bid at all. I don’t see ESPN offering more than $300 mil to the pac. This will not be nearly enough for b12 programs to jump.


I don’t understand the talks of conference members voting to dissolve whether it be b12, p10 or ACC. Seems fantastical and absurd.

Hard not to agree with this post. Maybe we just need the season to begin. More and more people seem to be grasping.

It makes complete sense for ESPN to secure the rights to the Pac, but it doesn't have to come at the expense of the Big 12s existence. The Pac will supply late night Friday and Saturday games and filler across the board. The Big 12 will likely end up with a split deal between 2 or 3 networks to fill in game time slots behind the B1G. Both conferences can survive without eating the other.

(08-11-2022 07:31 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  Yes... in short.

However, I don't think they'd be able to afford it. Fox still needs content and they'd have to split the cost with ESPN anyway. That's why it makes more sense keeping them separate for now.

But poaching down the road is inevitable. The PAC will get the upper hand the longer they stay together.

I just don't think the Big 12 will ever go away even though there isn't any interest in the conference outside of the 12 teams.

What makes sense is that conferences are getting larger. The role of conferences is to maximize media revenue. It’s the conferences (SEC, B1G, PAC, etc.) that making the decision to grow…trying to gain leverage and value in media rights contracts.

(08-11-2022 07:24 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Just tossing ideas out here:

ESPN already has the SEC and ACC locked up and the PAC 10 and Big 12 rights are up for negotiation, with the PAC 10 up first.

In an effort to grab content and keep it from their competitors, would it make sense to sign the PAC 10 to an exclusive deal, push them to add 6 Big 12 schools, then push the ACC to take Cincinnati and WVU, leaving 4 schools behind and very little content for FOX/CBS/NBC to pick up to compliment their Big 10 deals—essentially sending the message that it’s fine if they want the Big 10, but that’s all they are going to get.

IIRC the exit fee from the Big 12 is 80 million per team so no. OU and Texas can go to the SEC because of the top tier TV payouts that conference generates. It's a lot cheaper to move some PAC teams to the Big 12.

(08-11-2022 09:24 AM)Scoochpooch1 Wrote:  

(08-11-2022 07:31 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  Yes... in short.

However, I don't think they'd be able to afford it. Fox still needs content and they'd have to split the cost with ESPN anyway. That's why it makes more sense keeping them separate for now.

But poaching down the road is inevitable. The PAC will get the upper hand the longer they stay together.

I just don't think the Big 12 will ever go away even though there isn't any interest in the conference outside of the 12 teams.

That's essentially what it has been for a decade or more.

The only way this makes any sense is if every Big 12 school gets a home. If any small number of schools is left behind, they stand to make an enormous amount of money in exit fees. Lets say 10 schools bail, that is $800 million divided by 4.

Now, before anybody tries to say the conference can dissolve........ this has never happened before when money like this is involved and the dissolution is constructed specifically to avoid paying fees. In addition to that, there will have to be a lot of collusion in the background that will be alleged between the PAC, ACC, and the media partner.

This would be one hell of a messy lawsuit, and quite honestly, the left behind schools may prevail on temporary injunctions keeping the conference together while the drama plays out in the courtroom for years.

This is why this would never happen. Unless, the pay day happens for the left behinds.

ESPN could overpay the PAC knowing FOX will get the Big 12 tv deal....to try and lure some Big 12/Fox schools.

If ESPN gave PAC $40mm per team would it be enough to draw the Big 12 teams they would want?

Would Baylor, TCU, Ok. State, and Kansas jump at $40mm locked in?

(08-11-2022 07:24 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Just tossing ideas out here:

ESPN already has the SEC and ACC locked up and the PAC 10 and Big 12 rights are up for negotiation, with the PAC 10 up first.

In an effort to grab content and keep it from their competitors, would it make sense to sign the PAC 10 to an exclusive deal, push them to add 6 Big 12 schools, then push the ACC to take Cincinnati and WVU, leaving 4 schools behind and very little content for FOX/CBS/NBC to pick up to compliment their Big 10 deals—essentially sending the message that it’s fine if they want the Big 10, but that’s all they are going to get.

The problem is everyone in the M3 is frozen waiting for a P2 invite.

Then post P2 raids there isn't enough value left over for the M3 to combine.

Run it back 20 years ago and there was relative parity in the PAC, B1G, XII, ACC and SEC. Now there is really no hope of catching the SEC/B1G by the others, even with a best of the rest conference.

(08-11-2022 10:11 AM)Boots Wrote:  ESPN could overpay the PAC knowing FOX will get the Big 12 tv deal....to try and lure some Big 12/Fox schools.

If ESPN gave PAC $40mm per team would it be enough to draw the Big 12 teams they would want?

Would Baylor, TCU, Ok. State, and Kansas jump at $40mm locked in?

I doubt it knowing that Oregon, Washington, Cal, and Stanford could be gone in a second. Plus you add in the additional travel. That is tough on student athletes. Right now those 4 Big 12 teams are surrounded with fellow conference mates.