SAT 2:30pm ESP+
South Florida [1-4] o59
24 Cincinnati [4-1] -28
NIPPERT STADIUM, CINCINNATI, OH

All Time: UC 12 USF 7
Current Win Streak: 4 UC

I have many fond memories of some battles between UC and USF in the old Big East. There's been some battles in the early AAC to boot. Hey Quo! Any thoughts?

I'll admit it. There's a few games you guys kicked our ass. In fact, three games in a row including Luke Fickell's Year One...

2017 Cincinnati @ USF - UC 3 USF 33
2016 USF @ Cincinnati - USF 45 UC 20
2015 Cincinnati @ USF - UC 27 USF 65

I’m less interested in the margin of victory and more in how many points Cinci allows. 10 or less, and color me impressed. 20 or more and there’s more signs of life with USF (like their flashes last week in the 2H). Definitely think this is a W for the Bearcats though.
FPI gives USF a 3.2% chance of an outright win, yikes.

USF's defense is averaging allowing over 500 yards a game???? No wonder this is our Homecoming opponent.

There are FCS programs that could do better than that.

ESPN+? No thanks.

UC and USF have played every year since 2003.

This will likely be the last for the foreseeable future. Been a wild conference ride UC and USF have been on together over the past two decades. Hopefully USF gets a call up one way or another.

(10-04-2022 07:23 AM)owl at the moon Wrote:  I’m less interested in the margin of victory and more in how many points Cinci allows. 10 or less, and color me impressed. 20 or more and there’s more signs of life with USF (like their flashes last week in the 2H). Definitely think this is a W for the Bearcats though.
FPI gives USF a 3.2% chance of an outright win, yikes.

I mean, the Bulls did score 28 against Florida so putting up 20-28 points is not an indictment against the Bearcat D. UC has committed a lot of stupid penalties this year and have allowed teams to extend drives with 3rd and longs with WTF type mistakes. Ironically UC has been better on 1st and 2nd down than on 3rd down this season. This is not a team most teams in the conference will be able to drive the field on consistently. If USF scores 20+ it will be on coverage breakdowns and/or short field help.

USF can't play in cold temps. We'd destroy them up here even when they were decent.

Only a high of 59 on Saturday

It's time for your medicine, USF. Nothing personal but we need some style points.

(10-03-2022 10:06 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  I'll admit it. There's a few games you guys kicked our ass. In fact, three games in a row including Luke Fickell's Year One...

2017 Cincinnati @ USF - UC 3 USF 33
2016 USF @ Cincinnati - USF 45 UC 20
2015 Cincinnati @ USF - UC 27 USF 65

That 2015 game was an absolute horror show. 27-0 after the first quarter, 51-3 at halftime.

That was the game that made me realize the Tubs situation was going to end badly. I already knew he wasn’t a good coach, but thought he might skate along without getting fired until that game.

Is this thread really necessary?

This is the 20th straight year Cincy and USF have played. Too bad we're going out like this.

“ Scott says they're disappointed Bulls haven't played better, but USF wasn't favored in these games they lost. Something like 15-point underdogs usually”

https://twitter.com/mbakertbtimes/status...1463292928

(10-04-2022 09:58 AM)BcatMatt13 Wrote:  Only a high of 59 on Saturday

Oh man the Bulls will all be huddling around the bench heaters. Lol

(10-04-2022 12:03 PM)MeepMeep Wrote:  “ Scott says they're disappointed Bulls haven't played better, but USF wasn't favored in these games they lost. Something like 15-point underdogs usually”

https://twitter.com/mbakertbtimes/status...1463292928

This reply on Twitter says exactly what I was going to say, part one:

Quote:BYU: +11 (lost by 29)
Howard: -39.5 (won by 22)
Florida: +23.5 (lost by 3)
Louisville: +15.5 (lost by 38)
ECU: +9.5 (lost by 20)

They've covered ONCE. If they were even close to covering outside of the UF game, we're not complaining.

Part two is that there are teams in the country who have been consistent double digit underdogs all year.

Kansas has mostly been a TD or two underdog all year, except for FCS or Duke. They’re 5-0 and still a TD underdog this week.

Rice has been a double digit underdog to every single FBS opponent this year, and sits at 3-2 with an almost-upset at a 17 point favorite away from 4-1.

Rice in particular has been a 5-year journey from really bad, to bad, to flashes of competence, to finally, competitive with anyone outside the top ten. It was a long haul and the coach has made a point of emphasizing the incremental progress while acknowledging the situation at every step of the way, in order to keep his job and keep the plan in place.

Watching USF I see those “flashes of competence” this year. I could be sold on them being just a few tweaks and missing pieces away from turning the corner.

Quotes like this, though, are not how you sell it. You have to convince your players and the media that you believe it’s possible.

I’m certainly not convinced Cincy is winning this league this year but I have basically given up on the 2022 Bulls. I hope for their sake that Scott hasn’t.

A couple lists/trends to note:

Longest current home winning streaks:

Clemson 37
Cincinnati 29
Oregon 22
Alabama 16
Miami, Ohio 15
Georgia 14
NC State 13
Ole Miss 13
Kent State 11
Michigan 11
Ohio State 11
Oklahoma State 11
Utah 11

Consecutive wins in games favored by at least 10 points:

Cincinnati 45
Kentucky 43
Texas Tech 31
Syracuse 30
Georgia 24
Indiana 23
Boise State 22
Utah 22
Ole Miss 20
Utah State 20
Baylor 15
NC State 15
Oklahoma State 13
Tennessee 13
Ohio State 13

(10-05-2022 02:02 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  A couple lists/trends to note:

Longest current home winning streaks:

Clemson 37
Cincinnati 29
Oregon 22
Alabama 16
Miami, Ohio 15
Georgia 14
NC State 13
Ole Miss 13
Kent State 11
Michigan 11
Ohio State 11
Oklahoma State 11
Utah 11

Consecutive wins in games favored by at least 10 points:

Cincinnati 45
Kentucky 43
Texas Tech 31
Syracuse 30
Georgia 24
Indiana 23
Boise State 22
Utah 22
Ole Miss 20
Utah State 20
Baylor 15
NC State 15
Oklahoma State 13
Tennessee 13
Ohio State 13

Consecutive losses in games as underdog of 10 or more:
USF 4

(And that’s just *this* year…)

(10-04-2022 10:58 AM)stxrunner Wrote:  

(10-03-2022 10:06 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  I'll admit it. There's a few games you guys kicked our ass. In fact, three games in a row including Luke Fickell's Year One...

2017 Cincinnati @ USF - UC 3 USF 33
2016 USF @ Cincinnati - USF 45 UC 20
2015 Cincinnati @ USF - UC 27 USF 65

That 2015 game was an absolute horror show. 27-0 after the first quarter, 51-3 at halftime.

That was the game that made me realize the Tubs situation was going to end badly. I already knew he wasn’t a good coach, but thought he might skate along without getting fired until that game.

Sadly, unless USF can summon the energy they showed against Florida, I see something similar to the 51-3 halftime score, but in UC's favor this time.

USF hasn't been able to stop anyone in the first half all year long and usually gets behind big, before making a feeble second half attempt to close an insurmountable gap.

This game could be a barn burner.

In an alternate dimension