(10-17-2022 11:13 AM)pesik Wrote:  

5 out of 10 current Big 12 schools. That is impressive.

North carolina is this years ucla. They are going to be really good (top 10-15 good) but people are overreacting to them getting hot on the tournament.

(10-17-2022 12:04 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  North carolina is this years ucla. They are going to be really good (top 10-15 good) but people are overreacting to them getting hot on the tournament.

the real answer is Creighton, almost every single person in the advanced analytics community think Creighton is overrated. ive listened to like 5 podcasts of people saying they are extremely overhyping Creighton, that no metric justifies them being top 15 let alone preseason top 5 (like a lot of media outlets have)

kansas on paper isnt top 5 either but you have to rank the previous champ

but unc on paper is stacked, like stacked...i get the rankings

I agree that Creighton is overrated. But they don't fit what I'm talking about which is overvaluing a deep tournament run with rankings the following year. That doesn't mean I Carolina is bad. I just don't see them as the number 1 team.

(10-17-2022 12:49 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  I agree that Creighton is overrated. But they don't fit what I'm talking about which is overvaluing a deep tournament run with rankings the following year. That doesn't mean I Carolina is bad. I just don't see them as the number 1 team.

them struggling badly to start last year is still in the back on my mind.. they technically were only elite for the tournament like ucla .. so i think your take is perfectly reasonable

but just from a roster standpoint, they have no weaknesses.. they have the most complete roster in all college basketball.. zags guards are unproven (at this level, though touted), houston is small and has questions about the 5..kentucky on paper looks good but its identical dynamics to last year that lost 1st round.. duke is reliant on freshman .. these are the media contenders

unc- all old (and experience playing together), dominant center, elite shooting 6'10 stretch 4, elite defender at the 3, 1&2 argued as the best backcourt in the country ..with 6 4star backups (3 of which are upper-class)...

their question mark is caleb love...a consistent caleb love and they are probably my comfortable favorite.. the issue is that he hasnt proven he can be consistent yet.. he had too many 3-15/3-17 games last year... he shot unc out of a lot of games when he isn't on..

Pesik, no word on "secret scrimmages"?

(10-17-2022 02:37 PM)AusTxPony Wrote:  Pesik, no word on "secret scrimmages"?

the aac had 4 last week.. nothing has come out for anybody,

texas tech played tulsa, there were a few leaks of texas techs side performance but nothing for tulsa.. nothing for anyone else

edit: but if you want context clues smu/okstate took a post scrimmage group picture.. everyone on okstate was smiling ear to ear and laughing , majority of smu players and coaches weren't smiling

despite the conception here that i overhype houston, i actually almost never do, i feel wierd hyping up my own team. almost every houston conversation i have is "why we arent this bad" (against someones opinion, like when people said houston wasnt a top 10 team a few months ago).. never why we are this good".. so im going to make a post to why i think we are going to be good

Why this team is different than previous other teams
1) ive never been this confident about the star player "entering" the season. there were big question marks about every star prior to this star year.. i have no major question marks with sasser (in regards to college)

2) the team looks good before the season, only the final 4 team looked good in preseason but that included mills/fabian who ended up not playing. point being everyone expects houston to be good most years because "Sampson" but the roster on paper without sampson didnt look amazing.. the player just end up playing better than their expectations... this year we have a team that looks good in the preseason. what happens if thus team exceeds what the already are?

Not all roses. the cons
- obviously not the most dominant at the center.. none of the 5s have offense, they are also small. only 1 major rim protector tor but he has almost no experience. and impact on rebounding with the size.. but baylor won a national title with identical post questions

open scrimmage thoughts

- biggest surprise was that the most aggressive offensive player in the game was j'wan roberts, who showed zero offense his 1st 3 years (was just the rebounding guy). but was driving non stop throughout the scrimmage
its just a scrimmage, but if he is an offensive threat, playing both 4s (with jarace) with both offensive threats in small ball could completely changes how good we could be

Quote:Head Coach Kelvin Sampson comments on J'Wan Roberts improvement in his offense:
"For us, when your time comes, just be patient. Your time will come..."

- Tramon mark was unstoppable
- all freshmen looked good

Random board question
we have a running joke here from Wichita fans when they said their backups could win the AAC.. with how "expected weak" the aac is, Sampson as coach would houston still be te favorites with our backups?

assumed starters
sasser, shead, mark, jarace and chaney

g - Emmanuel sharp- 4star recruit known for elite scoring
g - Ramon walker (6'5 3&D type, fresh last year) OR Mylik Wilson (Transfer/sunbelt freshmen of the year- elite defender)
g - Terrance Arceneaux - top 40 recruit- 6'7 guard that can shoot
f - J'wan Roberts - elite offensive rebounder
f - Ja'vier Francis - samspon calls his best ever shot blocker

.

Sounds like Houston is considered a top 5 quality team for good reason.

Didn’t Houston basically win it once already with their backups?

This year your backups would win some big games. But with only a 3 man bench still left, not deep enough to win the league

Heh heh

Go Coogs go get that one seed

UC lost to Ohio in its scrimmage.

Personally think non con will be rough followed by much better performance in AAC

(10-18-2022 12:36 PM)justinhub2003 Wrote:  UC lost to Ohio in its scrimmage.

Personally think non con will be rough followed by much better performance in AAC

are we talking about the ohio that is 204 in torvik?? (lol just messing with you)

not a great sign especially after te recent built up hype (and big talk from coach) but texas tech lost to a bad utep in exhibition like 2 years ago, that texas tech ended up a top 20 team..

still not a great sign, but in the end it could be a great thing for UC.. Sampson says what he wants from our Duke and Texas scrimmage is "to be humbled"

also your noncon isnt set up for struggle... if you struggle in your non con you might not make the tournament ... your opponents are extremely good or very bad... you can go 0-3 in maui and still be in good shape...anything beyond that and you are fighting for a bid

(10-18-2022 12:36 PM)justinhub2003 Wrote:  UC lost to Ohio in its scrimmage.

Personally think non con will be rough followed by much better performance in AAC

Do not read much into scrimmage results. They are not real games.

(10-18-2022 01:24 PM)pesik Wrote:  

(10-18-2022 12:36 PM)justinhub2003 Wrote:  UC lost to Ohio in its scrimmage.

Personally think non con will be rough followed by much better performance in AAC

are we talking about the ohio that is 204 in torvik?? (lol just messing with you)

not a great sign especially after te recent built up hype (and big talk from coach) but texas tech lost to a bad utep in exhibition like 2 years ago, that texas tech ended up a top 20 team..

still not a great sign, but in the end it could be a great thing for UC.. Sampson says what he wants from our Duke and Texas scrimmage is "to be humbled"

also your noncon isnt set up for struggle... if you struggle in your non con you might not make the tournament ... your opponents are extremely good or very bad... you can go 0-3 in maui and still be in good shape...anything beyond that and you are fighting for a bid

If Cincy goes 10-3 in OOC games and 12-6 in AAC games, they'll have 22 wins heading into the conf. tourney, and will be a bubble team that might need to win 2 conf. tourney games in order to earn a NCAA bid.

Question: Can Cincy win >9 OOC games?

They'll play (#17) Arizona in game 1 in Maui, and if they lose, they'll probably play San Diego State in game 2 and L'ville, Arkansas, TTU, or Creighton in game 3. They also host (#38) Xavier. That's likely to be a very hard-fought game for (#51) Cincy.

The rest of their OOC schedule is smooth sailing, but they would have to play extremely well to win 10+ OOC games.

Question: Can Cincy win >9 OOC games or >12 AAC games?

They have to play Houston, Memphis, Tulane, and Temple twice (8 games). At best, they would be expected to split those four series; at worst to go 3-5 or 2-6 vs. those teams. They also have to play @ (#85) UCF and @ (#83) Wichita State (not an easy place to win).

*Rankings in parentheses are from kenpom.com

Cincy would probably have to surpass expectations in order to finish conference play with a record of 12-6 or better.

This is probably why Cincy hasn't made an appearance in the CBS Sports or ESPN pre-season bracketologies. It seems likely that they'll win ~21 or 22 games, and that their performances in the AAC tourney will determine which post-season tournament they'll be playing in.

On the positive side, if they don't get an NCAA bid, it seems likely that they would be a high (e.g., 2) seed in the NIT, with a good chance of advancing to the NIT final four.

(10-18-2022 01:24 PM)pesik Wrote:  

(10-18-2022 12:36 PM)justinhub2003 Wrote:  UC lost to Ohio in its scrimmage.

Personally think non con will be rough followed by much better performance in AAC

are we talking about the ohio that is 204 in torvik?? (lol just messing with you)

not a great sign especially after te recent built up hype (and big talk from coach) but texas tech lost to a bad utep in exhibition like 2 years ago, that texas tech ended up a top 20 team..

still not a great sign, but in the end it could be a great thing for UC.. Sampson says what he wants from our Duke and Texas scrimmage is "to be humbled"

also your noncon isnt set up for struggle... if you struggle in your non con you might not make the tournament ... your opponents are extremely good or very bad... you can go 0-3 in maui and still be in good shape...anything beyond that and you are fighting for a bid

IF we go 0-3 in Maui we can just pack in it, because the only way we make the tourney then is if we sweep Houston.. Beating Xavier at home isn't going to be nothing more than a tier 2 win.

(10-18-2022 01:30 PM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  

(10-18-2022 12:36 PM)justinhub2003 Wrote:  UC lost to Ohio in its scrimmage.

Personally think non con will be rough followed by much better performance in AAC

Do not read much into scrimmage results. They are not real games.

IF they are keeping score, I want to win. Losing to a bad Ohio team no matter the circumstance isn't a great look.

that said, Im not giving up on the team, but it could explain why Wes scheduled so damn soft, he maybe just knew he didnt have a great team ready for it

I am surprised the results of "secret" scrimmages to date have not leaked other than for Cincy.

(10-18-2022 03:01 PM)justinhub2003 Wrote:  IF we go 0-3 in Maui we can just pack in it, because the only way we make the tourney then is if we sweep Houston.. Beating Xavier at home isn't going to be nothing more than a tier 2 win.

in the aac a gaudy record can still get you in the tournament even without major wins... your net/kenpom will still be high... the key is no major bad losses.. which your schedule has plenty.

that @nku probably has more value than its probably given.. a team that can beat you, but youd get no credit for if you lost ..and its the game right before maui.. going 0-4 could be momentum killer

sidenote i was looking for more information about the scrimmage, because i think the box score could tell a more indepth story (could have just been a cold night)... but i found out ohio is not hiding the fact that they beat cincinnati lol.. they even put out highlights

its only ohio highlights but it nice insight into how they scored and UC lineups

miller just had a presser, he was dodging every question, but said he like to play them really early to adjust
also hints kalu probably the starting 5, but he isnt a "center"..will be positionless this year

also miller openly saying they dont have rim protections this year like last year, but can press more this year, its give and take .. overall doesnt seem that upset

(10-18-2022 04:06 PM)pesik Wrote:  

(10-18-2022 03:01 PM)justinhub2003 Wrote:  IF we go 0-3 in Maui we can just pack in it, because the only way we make the tourney then is if we sweep Houston.. Beating Xavier at home isn't going to be nothing more than a tier 2 win.

in the aac a gaudy record can still get you in the tournament even without major wins... your net/kenpom will still be high... the key is no major bad losses.. which your schedule has plenty.

that @nku probably has more value than its probably given.. a team that can beat you, but youd get no credit for if you lost ..and its the game right before maui.. going 0-4 could be momentum killer

sidenote i was looking for more information about the scrimmage, because i think the box score could tell a more indepth story (could have just been a cold night)... but i found out ohio is not hiding the fact that they beat cincinnati lol.. they even put out highlights

its only ohio highlights but it fives insight into how they scored and UC highlights

miller just had a presser, he was dodging every question, but said he like to play them really early to adjust
also hints kalu probably the starting 5, but he isnt a "center"..will be positionless this year

also miller openly saying they dont have rim protections this year like last year, but can press more this year, its give and take .. overall doesnt seem that upset

It's important to note that these were Ohio's highlights, and some good Cincy play probably isn't shown. On the other hand, Ohio seemed to score more easily than one would have expected when Mick Cronin was their HC.