(10-14-2022 01:24 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  Nope.

Everyone knows (or should reasonably know) that the Four Corners schools aren't *proactively* moving to the Big 12 before Washington, Oregon or other Pac-12 schools move.

It's all 100% hinging on whether the Big Ten moves or not. The notion that the Big Ten is supposedly waiting for a move by the Big 12 that realistically won't happen without the Big Ten moving first is circular logic.

I don't see why the 4c, or any other Pac school, needs to wait on the PN4. The writing is on the wall. If you're not a B1G target then you might end up being an MWC target if you don't play your cards right.

(10-14-2022 02:12 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  I think Yormark already threw everything but the kitchen sink at the 4 corners. My guess is Arizona was keen, Utah CU ASU not so much. He needed at least 3/4 to jump no questions asked to complete a western pod, or all 4 for that matter.

The networks just aren't willing to pay out the multiplier required to boost a 16 team Big 12 25-30% above what the 4C will end up making in a PAC10 on the open market. I think we are still in the posturing phase and things can still happen though, but it's going to hinge on PAC10 talks completely breaking down with all prospective media partners.

Someone is probably going to bid enough to keep the PAC10 satisfied for the rest of the decade, probably after SDSU and another are added.

I actually don't think that anybody will pay the Pac, but as long as the 4c have no fear of being left out then nobody will want to make the first move. They can just wait on actual numbers from the Pac, if they're decent then stay, if not then go to the big 12 in 2024.

(10-14-2022 02:17 PM)GreenFreakUAB Wrote:  

(10-14-2022 01:24 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  Nope.

Everyone knows (or should reasonably know) that the Four Corners schools aren't *proactively* moving to the Big 12 before Washington, Oregon or other Pac-12 schools move.

It's all 100% hinging on whether the Big Ten moves or not. The notion that the Big Ten is supposedly waiting for a move by the Big 12 that realistically won't happen without the Big Ten moving first is circular logic.

...I generally concur... I think the 'optics' of the B1G 'double-dipping' isn't as big of a factor as some make it out to be... I've seen talk that if the B1G grabs any more PAC schools, there could be legal action (again, sorry for no 'links', but... this stuff is all over the place ) but I really doubt that would be the case... no different than the California Board trying to 'strongarm' UCLA, but which appears to have been settled without incident...

One of the 'source folks' (name rhymes with Luger ) has a new vid out noting the BigXII has it in their new media deal(s) that they will be able to bring new members in without any 'dilution' of the deal, within reason and limits, of course... but I would figure the 4Cs would all be part of that thought process IF it is a 'thing'...

big 12 just started talking to media partners a few weeks ago, they're far away from actually signing any kind of "new deal".

(10-14-2022 03:27 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  15% more money for half a dozen years isn't enough to move. That's around $25M over six years. You are talking institutions that will spend $550-700M on Athletics over that period and whose school budgets, including research is around $3B over that time period. It's a rounding error. Mind you it's all vague projections of difference as well. You have to factor in ticket sales and interest breaking from the West Coast alumni. This is especially critical for the Arizona schools.

Now if you are talking $20M a year more, then they'll move. That is modest upgrade in lifestyle. But $4-5M at most (your 15%) it's not enough.

$5m a year is whole lot of money, especially when it so indicative of long term trends favoring the big 12 over the Pac in Athletics.

Ask Cal what they could do with $5m a year for, say, 30 years or so.

(10-14-2022 06:01 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  

(10-14-2022 01:24 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  Nope.

Everyone knows (or should reasonably know) that the Four Corners schools aren't *proactively* moving to the Big 12 before Washington, Oregon or other Pac-12 schools move.

It's all 100% hinging on whether the Big Ten moves or not. The notion that the Big Ten is supposedly waiting for a move by the Big 12 that realistically won't happen without the Big Ten moving first is circular logic.

The longer the PAC and XII go without TV deals the more hungry they are going to get for the most money possible and try to combine in some form.

Dissolve the PAC and XII to create a PAC-16.

big 12 buy out $$$ will never let that happen.

(10-14-2022 02:12 PM)Fresno Fanatic Wrote:  GreenFreak is onto something. However, what FrankTheTank said is the rule.

The 4C would rather wait until the next Pac10 tv deal expires, I’m sure. Even if B1G expansion westward is imminent in 6 years or so, better for 4C to wait. 1). Why do that travel now? 2). If it ain’t happening until NEXT tv contract round, why go now???

Now if B1G moves west in 2 years or less…yes. Then 4C move out to BXII

Although, if BXII contract going to be at least $5million/mem/yr, then, maybe 4C move preemptively…but I HIGHLY doubt BXII contract for 16 members is that far north of per member upcoming Pac10 deal.

It doesn't have to be. If the 4 corner schools are at least talking with the Big 12 then networks would be talking with the Big 12 commissioner and giving estimates of value for the new Big 12 contract both with and without those schools. All that has to be worth 5 million or more than a new PAC TV deal is the projection of the new Big 12 contract with the 4 corner schools in it.

And as far as the Big 10 having to move first, again, they don't. All that is necessary is for the four corner schools to believe they might, and for the PAC to have attained payout estimates sans Oregon and Washington or any combination or number beyond that of schools rumored to defect to the Big 10 at some point and found that total woefully lacking.

The board forgets how Missouri led everyone in the Big 12 to believe they were staying while they were actually angling with ESPN for the SEC. Presidents are aware of the Maryland kind of moves which jump up from out of the blue, the sudden defections like Texas and Oklahoma, and the "we're staying" defections like Missouri.

The mistrust coupled with self-interest survival thinking is what predicates moves down the line after the big ones like Nebraska to the Big 10, Colorado to the PAC, and Texas A&M to the SEC.

It happened that way to a certain extent in the Big East, and in the Big 12, and it will color the thinking and approach in the PAC 12.

So a higher projected payout with the 4 Corner schools in the Big 12 coupled with the fear of continued defections to the Big 10 over a short span of years is enough to prompt a preemptive move by a Utah or Arizona school. I'm not so sure Colorado will be under as much duress but maybe. And I don't see them running back to the Big 12.

Generally speaking Frank would be correct in thinking the Big 10 should move first. And they have! They took USC and UCLA and decapitated the L.A. market from the PAC 12. Anything goes now!

(10-14-2022 06:21 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  If I'm Utah or Zona, why do I partner with UW and UO if their intention is to leave in 6-7 years? Do they honestly believe they have a shot at the B1G as well? I'd be more comfortable with a 12 year deal in the Big 12 at a higher payout. Pretty much any 4C school is in the same boat. Is it worth it playing Stanford UO UW every year for seven years with little chance of improvement, or is it better to take a more stable home at higher pay?

The 4C should seriously look at the Big 12 if they can avoid a substantial Big 12 exit fee (in case the B1G calls) or long term GoR.

Utah and Arizona are never going to leave for the Big 12 as long as Oregon, Washington, Stanford, and Cal remain. Geographically, the Pac-12 is a better fit. Academically. the Pac-12 still has seven AAU schools, more than any other conference other than the Big Ten. Financially, I think they are better off in the Pac-12. Six or 7 years from now, who knows what will happen in college football? Schools like Utah and Arizona have time to put themselves in a stronger position for whatever comes next.